Mitch Marner (Trade or Keep)?

[thusk]

Would be nice if we swept every series, but unfortunately that's not the reality of the situation and we're stuck with playing these high pressure games.

Marner playoff production
================
Games 1-4 - 1.19 PPG
Games 5-7 - 0.47 PPG

I'm not "focusing" on game 7, I'm pointing out that as the pressure rachets up (games 5/6/7), Marner's production dries up.

Can he do more, yes... it is really a concern? No because stats dont say everything

You can contrivute offensivly for your team without having any point...

When leafs need to step up after a bad 1st game whos step up and took the lead? Marner by drawing an penalty because of his work and a pp goal

Who driving leafs to come back gm 4? Marner and matthews by a huge play in neutral zone and a 1v2 battle won

Game 6 he didn't get a pts on matthews goal but 5 second after matthews goal and made a pass to matthews all alone for a great scoring chance, matthews tried a second shot blocked by sergachev... whos gone on sergachev to put pressure on him? Marner with tavares help... it was a huge play forcing sergachev to make play faster and he missed it... brodie intercept it and Matthews score... Marner had 0 pts but was a huge part of the goal... just an exemple you can have 0 pts and still be one of biggewt reason why this goal happened. No body will never talked about marner play, but this goal is a result of his hard work...

You dont win in playoff only with how many point you scored, just ask to draisaitl and mcdavid.. you need to play a comple 200 feet game make all those little things and working hard... thats what marner doing.... yes he can raise his stats but thats doesn't mean he was not good enough

 

[leafs in five]

Game 7 is so much bigger than game 1, it is the "biggest" game in any series and I'm shocked that anyone would suggest otherwise.

you put your best shooter first in any shootout

 

[notDatsyuk]

The save tavares who already at 9 ts this season and easily in top 5 of best 2nd c in the entire NHL, just to dont say top 3...

But for sure a guy ranked 24 th in term of pts and 33 th in NHL at 5v5 since 2020 is not good enough for superstar nylander . For sure he neee to play with one of bewt goal scorer in NHL history... a guy with who he made look awful come playoff with their inability of moving out of defensive zone

I'm not sure what you are saying in at least part of that.

Let's keep it simple - do you agree that JT is not as good a player as Matty, and that JT and Willy just don't seem to have chemistry together?

 

[leafs in five]

LOL. I'm pretty sure nobody "hates" Marner.

yeah I'm going to disagree here lol

 

[leafs in five]

xISCC+%, last 3 playoffs (games 4-7 only):

 

[Dekes For Days]

He's ranking much lower than the rest of the core 4 in all the categories on natural stat trick.

Yet Marner supporters want to post words not capable of being quantified.. Like he's very good defensively and he's a playmaker first.

IPP - Take all of the even-strength goals scored by a team with Player X on the ice and label that total G. Take all of the points (goals or assists) awarded to Player X on those even-strength goals and label that total P. The individual points percentage (IPP) is then calculated as 100*(P/G). The average IPP value for forwards is 70%. The average IPP value for defensemen is 30%.

Morgan Reilly: 76.92% - 76th
John Tavares: - 71.43%- 90th
Austin Matthews: 71.43%- 92nd
William Nylander: 66.67% - 101st
Mitch Marner: 60% - 119th

He doesn't rank lower than the rest of the core 4 in all categories. He ranks lower than the rest of the core 4 in the 2023 playoffs, at 5v5, in specifically the individual shot-based metrics that you cherry picked because it best ignores Marner's impact relative to others (especially the rest of our core 4) and all playmaking value. Also, of course there are impacts from Marner that can be quantified, and Zybalto showed you a bunch above. You chose to ignore it and post misleading microstats instead.

I don't think you know what many of these stats you're posting actually mean. Not only are you trying to somehow use IPP results from an 11-game sample against somebody, but you don't seem to realize that that actually suggests that Marner's impact was underrepresented by his point totals - which he still led the team in. You're literally arguing against your argument.

 

[thusk]

I'm not sure what you are saying in at least part of that.

Let's keep it simple - do you agree that JT is not as good a player as Matty, and that JT and Willy just don't seem to have chemistry together?

Yep for sure matthews is a better player, just change absolutly nothing...

Yes Matthews making everyone playing with better

The same way Marner is a better winger than Nylander and making everyone around him better and thats including Matthews...

keefe using his best center with his best RW... using his 2nd best C with his second best RW. I just dont know where you want to go

But he still in great compagny
Tampa actual 2c is paul and cirelli 3C
Zacha, poitras, coyle are boston c
Bennett is florida 2C
Mittelstadt 2C in buffalo
Norris 2C in ottawa
Compher 2C in detroit
Dach 2C in MTL

Kotkanieni 2c in Carolina
Chytil 2c/ trochek 3c in NYR
Malkin at 37 in Pits
Kuznetsov in was
Nelson in long island
Laughton in philly
Jenner in columbus
Hischier in NJ

Outside of maybe hishier ( who still to prove after a great season) tavares is probably actually best 2C in the east and for you its not enough for Nylander... come on

Matthews and nylander in playoff thats didn't worked every time keefe tried it, they was unable to move out of their own zone most of the time and so they was wasting their best weapon in Matthews. Thats why keefe split both pretty quickly in playoff and doesn't come back this season with matthews/ nylander because keefe preparing his team for the only team goal, win a cup.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I was trying to ignore that as someone already laughably called him out and also the source being a guy I called out for posting an actual doctored graph earlier but really, I love you tried to use that as it's a literal example of cherry picking.

A chart that doesn't take into account playmaking ability or defense?

Seems perfect! Let's judge Marner on that!

You see Matthews/Tavares/Nylander being so high up there? How are they getting all those chances?

I got an idea, Lets go back and roast Adam Oates for being at the bottom of those lists too!

Jeez

I see what you are saying though and I'll give you a more thorough one in a bit. I just thought the number and REL with a couple examples would be enough.

You missed the point. Once again then, when you choose just 1 player out of the entire league to compare to Marner to make a point, that's cherry picking. That other post I mentioned did the opposite - he shows every forward on the Leafs. I hope that helps.

If you want to be more thorough, that's great but it's more important to be honest, and objective. If you want to make a point re. Marner, I suggest you start with the players he's most often compared to, sure that list has Kucherov on it but it also includes Rantanen and Pasternak and those two are probably the best comparables as they are close in age. Another idea is to take the top 10 players in any category (assuming Marner's among them, otherwise I guess you wouldn't want to show that) or whatever, I'm sure you get the general idea but trying to make a point by showing stats for just one player is laughable.

Can he do more, yes... it is really a concern? No because stats dont say everything

You can contrivute offensivly for your team without having any point...

When leafs need to step up after a bad 1st game whos step up and took the lead? Marner by drawing an penalty because of his work and a pp goal

Who driving leafs to come back gm 4? Marner and matthews by a huge play in neutral zone and a 1v2 battle won

Game 6 he didn't get a pts on matthews goal but 5 second after matthews goal and made a pass to matthews all alone for a great scoring chance, matthews tried a second shot blocked by sergachev... whos gone on sergachev to put pressure on him? Marner with tavares help... it was a huge play forcing sergachev to make play faster and he missed it... brodie intercept it and Matthews score... Marner had 0 pts but was a huge part of the goal... just an exemple you can have 0 pts and still be one of biggewt reason why this goal happened. No body will never talked about marner play, but this goal is a result of his hard work...

You dont win in playoff only with how many point you scored, just ask to draisaitl and mcdavid.. you need to play a comple 200 feet game make all those little things and working hard... thats what marner doing.... yes he can raise his stats but thats doesn't mean he was not good enough

Of course they don't, I never said they did. Anyway, the rest of your post is fascinating, here's my rebuttal.
Games 1-4 - 1.19 PPG
Games 5-7 - 0.47 PPG

you put your best shooter first in any shootout

Are you in the wrong thread? What does that have to do with this?
Games 1-4 - 1.19 PPG
Games 5-7 - 0.47 PPG

BTW, shootouts are nothing more than entertainment and have absolutely nothing to do with playoff hockey.

yeah I'm going to disagree here lol

Good to know, thanks for sharing.

 

[thusk]

You missed the point. Once again then, when you choose just 1 player out of the entire league to compare to Marner to make a point, that's cherry picking. That other post I mentioned did the opposite - he shows every forward on the Leafs. I hope that helps.

If you want to be more thorough, that's great but it's more important to be honest, and objective. If you want to make a point re. Marner, I suggest you start with the players he's most often compared to, sure that list has Kucherov on it but it also includes Rantanen and Pasternak and those two are probably the best comparables as they are close in age. Another idea is to take the top 10 players in any category (assuming Marner's among them, otherwise I guess you wouldn't want to show that) or whatever, I'm sure you get the general idea but trying to make a point by showing stats for just one player is laughable.


Of course they don't, I never said they did. Anyway, the rest of your post is fascinating, here's my rebuttal.
Games 1-4 - 1.19 PPG
Games 5-7 - 0.47 PPG

Are you in the wrong thread? What does that have to do with this?
Games 1-4 - 1.19 PPG
Games 5-7 - 0.47 PPG

BTW, shootouts are nothing more than entertainment and have absolutely nothing to do with playoff hockey.

Good to know, thanks for sharing.

Rantanen had 0,25 points game gm 5-6-7 when colorado won the cup and do you ever heard anything negative about him

You can finish with 0 pts and being better than someone finishing with 2-3 pts... i giving you a great exemple from last game against tampa...

Domi took the puck carry it with no intensity...cirelli backchecking and stole him the puck pretty easily... kampf with the 2 D made defensive play to repair domi mistake and bring puck back on leafs side... in his second attempt domi skated harder, kampf rush in the middle forcing raddysh to cover him, he didnt try to intercept the puck and let it slide to knies. Thats created space for knies to take a good shot and convert it...

2nd goal domi made a turnover , kampf did a great defensive play in neutral tonrepair it and he created a 2v1 with domi and knies...

Domi was looking great by most fan but he was the worst foward by far on the ice on both goal... the best player was Kampf and Knies who did everything on both goal. Kampf finished the game with 0 points vs 2 for Domi but his impact on both goal and overal was higher by a miles than domi.

 

[thewave]

yeah I'm going to disagree here lol

I am perhaps his worst critique and I don't hate him at all. I think he is a good player. I think he is overpaid, pretty simple. I think JT is overpaid too but his next contract isn't expected to be bigger. Marner seems to be trying to 1 : 1 Matthews as close as possible and they aren't in the same league performance wise. How could I in good conscience give a similar contract to someone like Marner as Matthews. Do you know how unfair that looks the guys below him, or Nylander etc? That sums it up for me.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Rantanen had 0,25 points game gm 5-6-7 when colorado won the cup and do you ever heard anything negative about him

You can finish with 0 pts and being better than someone finishing with 2-3 pts... i giving you a great exemple from last game against tampa...

Domi took the puck carry it with no intensity...cirelli backchecking and stole him the puck pretty easily... kampf with the 2 D made defensive play to repair domi mistake and bring puck back on leafs side... in his second attempt domi skated harder, kampf rush in the middle forcing raddysh to cover him, he didnt try to intercept the puck and let it slide to knies. Thats created space for knies to take a good shot and convert it...

2nd goal domi made a turnover , kampf did a great defensive play in neutral tonrepair it and he created a 2v1 with domi and knies...

Domi was looking great by most fan but he was the worst foward by far on the ice on both goal... the best player was Kampf and Knies who did everything on both goal. Kampf finished the game with 0 points vs 2 for Domi but his impact on both goal and overal was higher by a miles than domi.

Re. Rantanen - why did you pick that one year instead of showing the numbers for his entire career the way I did with Marner? If that one year is an accurate reflection of the rest of his career looks like, then OK point taken but in the future I suggest you show the career numbers to avoid any questions to begin with. But if that one year is an anomaly and the numbers for his entire career paint a completely different picture, then shame on you for picking those cherries that seemingly support your agenda while ignoring the bigger picture.

As far as finishing with 0pts and being better than someone else with 2-3 points, of course that's true. But showing whatever from one game is a lot different than looking at someone's career numbers, that should be obvious to anyone.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I am perhaps his worst critique and I don't hate him at all. I think he is a good player. I think he is overpaid, pretty simple. I think JT is overpaid too but his next contract isn't expected to be bigger. Marner seems to be trying to 1 : 1 Matthews as close as possible and they aren't in the same league performance wise. How could I in good conscience give a similar contract to someone like Marner as Matthews. Do you know how unfair that looks the guys below him, or Nylander etc? That sums it up for me.

I don't know where this "hate" stuff comes from, seems like people are just trying to distract people from what's relevant. I've been watching for over 50 years and don't remember ever hating any player, not just the Leafs but any player in the entire league. I mean take Marchand for example, the dude seems to be something of a d-bag but I don't hate the guy. I can't think offhand of any player in the league that I like less than him, but still, I don't hate the guy.

It's just hockey FFS. It's fun to watch, fun to get into it and pretend it's important while the games are being played but the reality is that there are literally thousand of things in life that are much, much more important than anything that ever happens in the NHL.

 

[Zur En Arrh]

Marner is not worth $10M a season. If he is willing to take around 8 then keep him. If not, good riddance.

So 100 point selke nominated players are not worth ten million? Jesus this fan base is special...

Edit, just saw the 8 million part. So let me get this straight, low balling a guy by 2 million and unless he accepts it , the 100 point selke nominated player that is, you let him walk....WOW, I just... I can't... I mean... I have no words...it's just...wow...

 

[34]

So 100 point selke nominated players are not worth ten million? Jesus this fan base is special...

Edit, just saw the 8 million part. So let me get this straight, low balling a guy by 2 million and unless he accepts it , the 100 point selke nominated player that is, you let him walk....WOW, I just... I can't... I mean... I have no words...it's just...wow...

I let Marner walk over Nylander all day long. Marner is so overrated

 

[thusk]

Re. Rantanen - why did you pick that one year instead of showing the numbers for his entire career the way I did with Marner? If that one year is an accurate reflection of the rest of his career looks like, then OK point taken but in the future I suggest you show the career numbers to avoid any questions to begin with. But if that one year is an anomaly and the numbers for his entire career paint a completely different picture, then shame on you for picking those cherries that seemingly support your agenda while ignoring the bigger picture.

As far as finishing with 0pts and being better than someone else with 2-3 points, of course that's true. But showing whatever from one game is a lot different than looking at someone's career numbers, that should be obvious to anyone.

Ok just giving you an other exemple

Stats from maybe the most respected 2 way player of last 20 years and with reputation of being great in playoff


his stats during game 5-6-7 : 10 goal -20 assist 57 game 0,53 pts/ game in carreer and outside of 9 game 5-6-7 he played vs toronto this number drop a 0,46

So if we make the same thing you doing with marner but with bergeron... we should consider him like a bad playoff player who doesn't deliver when its matter?!?!?! Its the same thing Bergeron doing just so much things who just didn't appeared on scoring sheet, you cant evaluate what he bringing on the ice only with stats. His impact is much more higher and its exactly the same with Marner

 

[Gary Nylund]

Ok just giving you an other exemple

Stats from maybe the most respected 2 way player of last 20 years and with reputation of being great in playoff

his stats during game 5-6-7 : 10 goal -20 assist 57 game 0,53 pts/ game in carreer and outside of 9 game 5-6-7 he played vs toronto this number drop a 0,46

So if we make the same thing you doing with marner but with bergeron... we should consider him like a bad playoff player who doesn't deliver when its matter?!?!?! Its the same thing Bergeron doing just so much things who just didn't appeared on scoring sheet, you cant evaluate what he bringing on the ice only with stats. His impact is much more higher and its exactly the same with Marner

You didn't answer the question about Rantanen, why is that?

Bergeron's career playoff stats are 128 points in 170 games so the drop off to .53 pts is nothing like Marner's drop off.

Enough with this cherry picking already. Instead of searching for someone you can compare to Marner to make him look better and showing numbers for that one person to try to make a point, try being objective for a change.

 

[Arzak]

Ok just giving you an other exemple

Stats from maybe the most respected 2 way player of last 20 years and with reputation of being great in playoff


his stats during game 5-6-7 : 10 goal -20 assist 57 game 0,53 pts/ game in carreer and outside of 9 game 5-6-7 he played vs toronto this number drop a 0,46

So if we make the same thing you doing with marner but with bergeron... we should consider him like a bad playoff player who doesn't deliver when its matter?!?!?! Its the same thing Bergeron doing just so much things who just didn't appeared on scoring sheet, you cant evaluate what he bringing on the ice only with stats. His impact is much more higher and its exactly the same with Marner

I don't get the point you are trying to convey. Bergeron was the true shutdown 2nd line C when Bruins won the Cup. Krejci was the main driving force offensively on 1st line.

But that was by design, not because Bergeron was put in a position to score and failed so they switched the narrative to Bergy was shutdown C whole playoff run!

We are not using Marner in the same capacity. We never tried Marner as our shutdown Winger. I don't understand what makes anyone think he can do what Bergeron, Zetterberg or Hossa did in the playoffs.

Marner has the best 2-way reputation in the league.
Dead last at preventing goals on PK but somehow we call him the best PK player to ever lace them.. Because he scores on PK from time to time.
Who cares that when you NEED to kill a penalty, statistically Marner is the worst choice on the Leafs roster?


Marner elite PK !!!

 

[francis246]

I don't get the point you are trying to convey. Bergeron was the true shutdown 2nd line C when Bruins won the Cup. Krejci was the main driving force offensively on 1st line.

But that was by design, not because Bergeron was put in a position to score and failed so they switched the narrative to Bergy was shutdown C whole playoff run!

We are not using Marner in the same capacity. We never tried Marner as our shutdown Winger. I don't understand what makes anyone think he can do what Bergeron, Zetterberg or Hossa did in the playoffs.

Marner has the best 2-way reputation in the league.
Dead last at preventing goals on PK but somehow we call him the best PK player to ever lace them.. Because he scores on PK from time to time.
Who cares that when you NEED to kill a penalty, statistically Marner is the worst choice on the Leafs roster?


Marner elite PK !!!

It’s important to add context to that stat. I’d be interested to see Marner’s PK minutes relative to him being “dead last at preventing goals”. We all know Marner is overplayed in all situations. More time you spend out there, the more chance you’re out there being scored against. He’s usually first up on the PK even if he was just on the ice while we took the penalty. So I can see that having a negative impact on your PK.

I think it’s important to understand Marner does have good defensive metrics compared to other stars in the game but he’s got faults in his game. Untimely turnovers, lack of goal scoring at times. No one is denying that.

We all know Marner is not the worst option on the team… but can we reduce his minutes and lean on others, yes. Nylander, Knies and Matthews are all capable of killing penalities and should be leaned on.

 

[sunstersun]

Marner killed the Habs series, which was easily our best chance to make a cup run.

He gets too scared in the playoffs when things tighten up. It's not exactly his fault, he doesn't have the physical traits Nylander and Matthews have.

 

[francis246]

“Nobody Hates Marner”, “Never been said on this board”

Post in thread 'Marner Contract Discussion - Less than 2 weeks to camp'

Post in thread 'Worst Leafs performance I’ve seen in 25 years as a fan'

Post in thread 'SCQF Game 2 | Leafs vs Habs - 5/22/21 @ 7:00pm EST'

Post in thread 'Round 1 - Game 7 | SERIES TIED | Leafs Vs Habs - May 31, 2021 @ 7:00 pm EST'

Post in thread 'Round 1 - Game 7 | SERIES TIED | Leafs Vs Habs - May 31, 2021 @ 7:00 pm EDT - CBC, CNBC, TVAS, SN4K'

Post in thread 'Round 2 Game 3 Baby! 6:30pm (rolls eyes) - Leafs vs Florida - The BWO presents Florida with the Leaf Nation Road Show'

Post in thread 'GAME 6 - Toronto @ Montreal - 5/29 - 7:30 PM ET - CBC'

I could post a thousand more lmao

 

[thusk]

You didn't answer the question about Rantanen, why is that?

Bergeron's career playoff stats are 128 points in 170 games so the drop off to .53 pts is nothing like Marner's drop off.

Enough with this cherry picking already. Instead of searching for someone you can compare to Marner to make him look better and showing numbers for that one person to try to make a point, try being objective for a change.

Marner had been better game 1 to 4 than Bergeron.... thats not making him a worst player game 5-6-7... just making him a better player gane 1 to 4

Im just telling stats alone doesn't make quality of a player

I don't get the point you are trying to convey. Bergeron was the true shutdown 2nd line C when Bruins won the Cup. Krejci was the main driving force offensively on 1st line.

But that was by design, not because Bergeron was put in a position to score and failed so they switched the narrative to Bergy was shutdown C whole playoff run!

We are not using Marner in the same capacity. We never tried Marner as our shutdown Winger. I don't understand what makes anyone think he can do what Bergeron, Zetterberg or Hossa did in the playoffs.

Marner has the best 2-way reputation in the league.
Dead last at preventing goals on PK but somehow we call him the best PK player to ever lace them.. Because he scores on PK from time to time.
Who cares that when you NEED to kill a penalty, statistically Marner is the worst choice on the Leafs roster?


Marner elite PK !!!

How do you think marner is used?!?!?! marner is the leafs key shutdown player ...its the 1st guy keefe always send against top opposite line...

Even in his second NHL season, it was marner line with plekanec and marleau( i think) sent against bergeron line when leafs had last change.

Marner and matthews is the best offensive line but also top shutdown line

 

[Gary Nylund]

“Nobody Hates Marner”, “Never been said on this board”

Post in thread 'Marner Contract Discussion - Less than 2 weeks to camp'

Post in thread 'Worst Leafs performance I’ve seen in 25 years as a fan'

Post in thread 'SCQF Game 2 | Leafs vs Habs - 5/22/21 @ 7:00pm EST'

Post in thread 'Round 1 - Game 7 | SERIES TIED | Leafs Vs Habs - May 31, 2021 @ 7:00 pm EST'

Post in thread 'Round 1 - Game 7 | SERIES TIED | Leafs Vs Habs - May 31, 2021 @ 7:00 pm EDT - CBC, CNBC, TVAS, SN4K'

Post in thread 'Round 2 Game 3 Baby! 6:30pm (rolls eyes) - Leafs vs Florida - The BWO presents Florida with the Leaf Nation Road Show'

Post in thread 'GAME 6 - Toronto @ Montreal - 5/29 - 7:30 PM ET - CBC'

I could post a thousand more lmao

The links don't work for me, I guess I'll take your word for it.

Marner had been better game 1 to 4 than Bergeron.... thats not making him a worst player game 5-6-7... just making him a better player gane 1 to 4

Im just telling stats alone doesn't make quality of a player

Marner's game 1-4 has nothing to do with Marner's game 5-6-7, that's stating the obvious so not sure what your point is. Same goes for "stats alone ...".

All I'm saying is that Marner's production plummets when the pressure is cranked up, the numbers don't lie. If that doesn't bother you and you don't think that detracts from his value as a player then that's fine, we're all entitled to our opinions. And again, Bergoron's number look nothing like this

Games 1-4 - 1.19 PPG
Games 5-7 - 0.47 PPG

 

[Martin Skoula]

The numbers don’t matter at this point lol, all you need to realize Marner is never going to be a playoff factor is the 30 second clip of Tkachuk punching him in the face and Marner looking like he’s about to cry.

Mind you, not because the punches hurt, but because Marner still saw Tkachuk as a friend first that just happens to play for the other team, Tkachuk saw Marner as an obstacle between him and a cup that needed to be dismantled by any means necessary. Marner looked genuinely shocked and hurt that his friend Tkachuk would do something like that to him.

 

[leafs in five]

I am perhaps his worst critique and I don't hate him at all. I think he is a good player. I think he is overpaid, pretty simple. I think JT is overpaid too but his next contract isn't expected to be bigger. Marner seems to be trying to 1 : 1 Matthews as close as possible and they aren't in the same league performance wise. How could I in good conscience give a similar contract to someone like Marner as Matthews. Do you know how unfair that looks the guys below him, or Nylander etc? That sums it up for me.

I think Antropovsky and shaner hate him more than you do

 

[leafs in five]

Are you in the wrong thread? What does that have to do with this?
Games 1-4 - 1.19 PPG
Games 5-7 - 0.47 PPG

BTW, shootouts are nothing more than entertainment and have absolutely nothing to do with playoff hockey.

maybe think about it for a few minutes, idk

Good to know, thanks for sharing.

you're welcome, and thanks for sharing your opinion that nobody hates Marner