Mitch Marner (Trade or Keep)?

[Zybalto]

A player has full ability to keep the contract negotiations silent in the media on their end. Matthews and Nylander's camp both took this approach, the reason Nylander's was particularly frustrating is because they gave so little information while he was holding out. Turns out this is the best way to handle it in this market.

Marner's camp did the opposite. That camp almost directly leveraged the media. Saying the things in your post is easy to say in hindsight, the negotiations were a circus when they were happening.

With all of these kids its the handlers/agents that are doing it all.

You mentioned Nylander and his epic hold out and I don't think he was involved in that any more than Marner was in his negotiations. Don't you remember the fan/media beating he took, especially after he had a pretty brutal year after he came back? How we should have traded him for Pesce?....and why is anyone even thinking of contract negotiations anyways? It's not like we are talking about a Benn/Seguin debacle here. Marner/Nylander are both solid contracts.

It's why the cap system is AWFUL for the NHL and players and solid fanbases. It poisons minds.

 

[thusk]

I don't remember all these games by any stretch of the imagination but I do remember a few. I remember TB winning 1-0, and I remember several games where the Leafs went down early and desperately needed to score to catch up. I suspect a deep dive into these games might show that we were trailing for most of these games and desperately needed offence while TB just needed to clamp down defensively after they took the lead. If that's the case, then it's pretty silly to deduct points from Kucherov for not scoring when goals weren't needed.

I think it was zybalto who started this whole Kuch vs Marner thing to show that Marner isn't the only unclutch player in the league. I can't help but wonder how many players he had to sort through before he found a player to compare that wouldn't make Marner look bad? I can't be bothered to do the research but somehow I feel like if were to look at the other guys he's compared to like Pasta and Ranta, Marner would look pretty bad. I guess that's the problem with stats, if you can't trust that the guy posting the stats doesn't have an agenda, you can't trust the stats either.


I assume you meant to say "bigger", not "biggest". Either way, agree to disagree. Game 7 is so much bigger than game 1, it is the "biggest" game in any series and I'm shocked that anyone would suggest otherwise.

3-2 ot lost ans 1-0 win vs habs
3-2 ot lost and 1-0 win vs islanders
2-0 win vs carolina
4-1 lost and 4-0 win vs florida
4-3 ot win and 2-1 win vs leafs
2-0 win vs florida
2-1 win nyr
3-2 win, 2-1 lost vs avs
4-2 win and 2-1 ot loss vs leafs

And it was in 15 game not 14...




And no game 7 is not bigger... if you win it in 5, you doesnt care about game7. How many game 7 did avs played in their run? We can say the 4th game is harder to win but not bigger...

 

[Zybalto]

Doesn't honestly look as good as Zybalto makes it out to be when you add some context in.

These guys are still making Marner out to be like he's some prime Hossa or Zetterberg in the defensive zone when he's shown to be nothing of the sort in the playoffs - not even close actually.

I'll appreciate Marner for what he is - it only serves to fuel the hatred when you try to build him into something he's not.

I guess I could post his impressive defensive analytics but its actual the goals against that matters when hes on the ice eh? I can see by the fact some posters are furiously trying to post as many as they can find.

Over the last 3 years in the playoffs:

5v5 Goals against/60:
Cirelli: 1.63
Bergeron: 2.19
Barkov: 2.43
Marner: 1.51 (-1.05)

I don't think you are giving him much credit here.

 

[Antropovsky]

I guess I could post his impressive defensive analytics but its actual the goals against that matters when hes on the ice eh? I can see by the fact some posters are furiously trying to post as many as they can find.

Over the last 3 years in the playoffs:

5v5 Goals against/60:
Cirelli: 1.63
Bergeron: 2.19
Barkov: 2.43
Marner: 1.51 (-1.05)

I don't think you are giving him much credit here.

2023 playoffs ixG (individual expected goals created):

Matthews: 3.72 19th place
Tavares: 3.22 31st place
Nylander: 3.02 33rd place


Marner: 1.92 57th place

 

[francis246]

Murphy was the worst, no doubt, that translated to the building.

With Nylander, Marner etc it's just a few here that really that just repeat the same things over and over again.
Somehow, Matthews escapes it.

Again it comes down to projection. Many fans hate Marner because they wish they could be in Marner’s position. They wish they could be playing for the leafs and they honestly believe they’d do better and for a fraction of a cost. A lot of us have probably dreamed about playing for the leafs and they are projecting their feelings onto Marner. He’s the hometown guy not making good on his opportunity that’s why it causes so much more vitriol when it comes to him.

But never the less I don’t get why people take it so personally. At the end of the day these guys shouldn’t affect our lives to a crazy degree and if they do that isn’t healthy.

 

[Gary Nylund]

3-2 ot lost ans 1-0 win vs habs
3-2 ot lost and 1-0 win vs islanders
2-0 win vs carolina
4-1 lost and 4-0 win vs florida
4-3 ot win and 2-1 win vs leafs
2-0 win vs florida
2-1 win nyr
3-2 win, 2-1 lost vs avs
4-2 win and 2-1 ot loss vs leafs

And it was in 15 game not 14...

And no game 7 is not bigger... if you win it in 5, you doesnt care about game7. How many game 7 did avs played in their run? We can say the 4th game is harder to win but not bigger...

If those are the TB games you've listed, thanks for helping to prove my point.

Re. game 7, agree to disagree, not much else to say here. If you were to post a poll on the main boards (or any teams board) asking about this with 3 poll options, game 1 more important than game 7, game 7 more important than game 1, both equally important, game 7 more important would win in a landslide with over 90% of the vote. JMHO.

I guess I could post his impressive defensive analytics but its actual the goals against that matters when hes on the ice eh? I can see by the fact some posters are furiously trying to post as many as they can find.

Over the last 3 years in the playoffs:

5v5 Goals against/60:
Cirelli: 1.63
Bergeron: 2.19
Barkov: 2.43
Marner: 1.51 (-1.05)

I don't think you are giving him much credit here.

Before it was Kuch for some reason, now it's Cirelli, Bergeron and Barkov. When you choose just 1 or 3 out of a much bigger list of star players, that's a textbook example of what cherry picking is. Seems pretty suspicious and is exactly the kind of nonsense that prevents some people from taking your posts seriously.

 

[francis246]

I guess I could post his impressive defensive analytics but its actual the goals against that matters when hes on the ice eh? I can see by the fact some posters are furiously trying to post as many as they can find.

Over the last 3 years in the playoffs:

5v5 Goals against/60:
Cirelli: 1.63
Bergeron: 2.19
Barkov: 2.43
Marner: 1.51 (-1.05)

I don't think you are giving him much credit here.

Hahaha they’ll try and find another stat to discredit Marner or isolate him as the sole reason we continually lose.

 

[Antropovsky]

2023 playoffs:
iSCF - Any scoring chance by the player, outside of the shootout

Matthews: 48 - 5th place
Tavares: 30 - 31st place
Nylander: 25 - 45th place


Marner: 16 - 85th place

 

[Gary Nylund]

Again it comes down to projection. Many fans hate Marner because they wish they could be in Marner’s position. They wish they could be playing for the leafs and they honestly believe they’d do better and for a fraction of a cost. A lot of us have probably dreamed about playing for the leafs and they are projecting their feelings onto Marner. He’s the hometown guy not making good on his opportunity that’s why it causes so much more vitriol when it comes to him.

But never the less I don’t get why people take it so personally. At the end of the day these guys shouldn’t affect our lives to a crazy degree and if they do that isn’t healthy.

LOL. I'm pretty sure nobody "hates" Marner. Seems like you're the one doing the projecting here.

 

[francis246]

If those are the TB games you've listed, thanks for helping to prove my point.

Re. game 7, agree to disagree, not much else to say here. If you were to post a poll on the main boards (or any teams board) asking about this with 3 poll options, game 1 more important than game 7, game 7 more important than game 1, both equally important, game 7 more important would win in a landslide with over 90% of the vote. JMHO.


Before it was Kuch for some reason, now it's Cirelli, Bergeron and Barkov. When you choose just 1 or 3 out of a much bigger list of star players, that's a textbook example of what cherry picking is. Seems pretty suspicious and is exactly the kind of nonsense that prevents some people from taking your posts seriously.

Game 7 is only important if it’s relevant in the series. Game 7 is not always in a series. So game 1 is infact more important than game 7. When looking at the whole context of a playoff series objectively. A good majority of series don’t even make it to game 7’s.

LOL. I'm pretty sure nobody "hates" Marner. Seems like you're the one doing the projecting here.

There are absolutely people who hate Marner and again Gary if it doesn’t apply to you, you don’t have to worry about it. No one said “Gary Nylund” hates Marner. I said fans. There are fans on this board who have legit in their posts said they hate Marner, want him gone, call him this or that.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It's actually more of a statement to support an argument that doing an unprecedented cap allocation towards forwards may not be the best approach to a cap structure

But that statement doesn't support that argument at all. Rare unrelated thing that could only happen recently happened recently doesn't equate to our cap structure being bad.
In fact, we're on our like 5th iteration of that statement because every "X has never happened" that gets thrown around happens.
There is no one way to build a team. In fact, you can make pretty much any realistic cap structure work.

Allocating cap to players that bring more impact than the cap you're allocating to them is not bad cap management, and removing them to bring in pieces that are less likely to outperform their contracts is not beneficial to a team.

 

[Antropovsky]

@Zybalto thoughts?

2023 playoffs:
HDCF - Any high danger scoring chance by the player, outside of the shootout.

M.Tkatchuk: 31 - 1st
Matthews: 21 - 10th
Tavares: 19 - 14th
Nylander 16 - 32nd
Kampf: 10 - 60th
Bunting: 8 - 85th
Jarnkrok 7 - 97th
Knies: 7 - 98th
Oreilly: 6 - 107th
Acciari: 6 - 110th
Kerfoot: 6 - 116th
Marner: 5 - 122th

 

[Jojalu]

2023 playoffs:
iSCF - Any scoring chance by the player, outside of the shootout

Matthews: 48 - 5th place
Tavares: 30 - 31st place
Nylander: 25 - 45th place


Marner: 16 - 85th place

I wish Matthews would convert more. At least the eye teat matches the stats. It always seems like he is creating chances but for whatever reason he and his linemates rarely capitalize.

 

[francis246]

I wish Matthews would convert more. At least the eye teat matches the stats. It always seems like he is creating chances but for whatever reason he and his linemates rarely capitalize.

It’s because everything is perimeter with them. I think the biggest separator between Matthews/Marner and other stars such as McDavid, Draisaitl, Tkachuk, MacKinnon, Point, Rantanen, Pastrnak in the playoffs is look at the goals those guys are scoring. The other stars are beating goalies in the slot at close range 5 on 5. They’ll score their one timers on the PP, but everything else is close range. You have to go there to score in the playoffs and our guys want to beat the goalie clean from outside. That doesn’t work in the playoffs. JT’s OT goal is an example of what works and they completely got away from that game plan against Florida.

 

[Antropovsky]

It’s because everything is perimeter with them. I think the biggest separator between Matthews/Marner and other stars such as McDavid, Draisaitl, Tkachuk, MacKinnon, Point, Rantanen, Pastrnak in the playoffs is look at the goals those guys are scoring. The other stars are beating goalies in the slot at close range 5 on 5. They’ll score their one timers on the PP, but everything else is close range. You have to go there to score in the playoffs and our guys want to beat the goalie clean from outside. That doesn’t work in the playoffs. JT’s OT goal is an example of what works and they completely got away from that game plan against Florida.

Well slot shots aren't perimeter shots and those are tracked. And one of leafs "core 4" slot shots stats were significantly worse than not only the other core 4 members but the entire forward group (hint it was Marner)


Here's a sportsnet article about 2023 playoff leaf slot shots:

Marner’s “portion of shots from the slot” percentage was last on the Leafs in the playoffs by over 10 per cent.

There rest not so bad... Tavares really good actually.

John Tavares had twice as many as the next best Leafs player with 20 in just 11 games. That he only had four playoff goals is crazy; he’s the only guy who can really make a claim to have gotten “unlucky” with his post-season output (his secondary assists also dried up, which is partially bad luck).

Making sense of Matthews

The Tavares inner slot shots thing is interesting to me, because it says he was better than the next best Leafs player by double, but that wasn’t even Matthews, it was Nylander.

 

[Dekes For Days]

2023 playoffs ixG (individual expected goals created):

Matthews: 3.72 19th place
Tavares: 3.22 31st place
Nylander: 3.02 33rd place
Marner: 1.92 57th place

2023 playoffs:
iSCF - Any scoring chance by the player, outside of the shootout

Matthews: 48 - 5th place
Tavares: 30 - 31st place
Nylander: 25 - 45th place
Marner: 16 - 85th place

We all know the answer, but why are you using individual shot-based stats that completely ignore playmaking value to compare a playmaker to goalscorers?

 

[shaner8989]

@Zybalto thoughts?

2023 playoffs:
HDCF - Any high danger scoring chance by the player, outside of the shootout.

M.Tkatchuk: 31 - 1st
Matthews: 21 - 10th
Tavares: 19 - 14th
Nylander 16 - 32nd
Kampf: 10 - 60th
Bunting: 8 - 85th
Jarnkrok 7 - 97th
Knies: 7 - 98th
Oreilly: 6 - 107th
Acciari: 6 - 110th
Kerfoot: 6 - 116th
Marner: 5 - 122th

Pure embarrassment. Get rid of him. He’s negative value when it matters. I don’t care that he gets 4 points against Anaheim on a Tuesday in November. He does nothing when it matters

 

[thusk]

If those are the TB games you've listed, thanks for helping to prove my point.

Re. game 7, agree to disagree, not much else to say here. If you were to post a poll on the main boards (or any teams board) asking about this with 3 poll options, game 1 more important than game 7, game 7 more important than game 1, both equally important, game 7 more important would win in a landslide with over 90% of the vote. JMHO.


Before it was Kuch for some reason, now it's Cirelli, Bergeron and Barkov. When you choose just 1 or 3 out of a much bigger list of star players, that's a textbook example of what cherry picking is. Seems pretty suspicious and is exactly the kind of nonsense that prevents some people from taking your posts seriously.

Tampa didnt win because of kucherov, stamkos, point offensive scoring... they won because vasilevskiy gave absolutly nothing and tampa was able to take a 1-0 lead late in second or in 3rd period

A win is a win, the goal is to win 4 game... do you think game 7 against florida was more important than game 1-2 where leafs lost bost trailing 2-0 and all the pressure as favorite on their shoulder. Do you think if toronto winning 1st 2 game of that serie and unstead of trailling 3-1, leading 3-1 would be the same. Unstead of watching tv and heard youre chocker everywhere, its not the same than seeing fan happy with stanley cup hope. You dont come back in arena with samr confidence .

If leafs leading 3-1, Do you think he would saw Gudas hitting to the head, hitting people without puck, holding jarnkrok strick... all those play would not happen because just the fear of taking a bad penalty who can cost the season would be enough to avoid it. So game 1 and 2 changed the way panthers played game 5.

Do you think, come back from gm 4 vs tb who was the turning point of the serie was less important than game 6-7..

Every game are extremely important and affecting series...

 

[Antropovsky]

We all know the answer, but why are you using individual shot-based stats that completely ignore playmaking value to compare a playmaker to goalscorers?

So your saying it's fair that 11 million dollar Mitch Marner has less high danger scoring chances than Acciari, Kerfoot and Knies? Is Acciari and Kerfoot pure shooters?

2023 playoffs:
HDCF - Any high danger scoring chance by the player, outside of the shootout.

M.Tkatchuk: 31 - 1st
Matthews: 21 - 10th
Tavares: 19 - 14th
Nylander 16 - 32nd
Kampf: 10 - 60th
Bunting: 8 - 85th
Jarnkrok 7 - 97th
Knies: 7 - 98th
Oreilly: 6 - 107th
Acciari: 6 - 110th
Kerfoot: 6 - 116th
Marner: 5 - 122th

 

[LeafGrief]

I thought it made no sense at all but I don't watch cartoons.
Not one person thinks he's above criticism. Some just tire of the same daily criticisms that for the most part don't make a lot of sense.

The froth that some hold for this kid is really strange, no other way to put it.

Not that this post is unique or anything, but it's the exact sort of internet comment that leaves me wondering, "are we even reading the same thread"?

We see what we want to see. I see people rankling at any criticism and going to silly lengths like comparing Marner to multi-cup winners, you see people getting angry at a superstar for not doing everything single-handedly. I think it's strange that people think posting stuff like, "why are you upset?" is actually helpful. This is a hockey forum, emphasis on forum, which after decades of experience we should know is where people discuss the same stupid topics with the same stupid takes every day until the player or staff leave the organization. I doubt most of us take this thread very seriously (with a few notable exceptions).

 

[thusk]

2023 playoffs:
iSCF - Any scoring chance by the player, outside of the shootout

Matthews: 48 - 5th place
Tavares: 30 - 31st place
Nylander: 25 - 45th place


Marner: 16 - 85th place

4:48 and around 6 minutes... that Marner, little play who doesn't look amaizing but extremely important

1st one made a play with his feet and kept the play alive outstead of a losing puck.... matthews scored later

Just won a 1v2 battle in the corner and just ship puck to rielly...thats created space and shooting lane for rielly..

nothing spectacular, some detail who doesn't necessairly appear on stats but extremely important.... on those play thats resulting for assist but he doing it over and over again and that not appear in any stats. Thats Marner and thats why every player playing with become instantly better.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So your saying it's fair that 11 million dollar Mitch Marner has less high danger scoring chances than Acciari, Kerfoot and Knies?

You didn't answer the question. Why are you using individual shot-based stats that completely ignore playmaking value to compare a playmaker to goalscorers?
It's fair that Marner gets paid 10.9m, and gets paid more than vastly inferior players like Acciari, Kerfoot, and Knies, as he brings way more impact to the team than them.
Cherry picking misleading stats that intentionally ignore the majority of Marner's impact to paint an incorrect picture does not change that.
His primary job is essentially to improve those stats in others, and you're somehow trying to use that against him, lol.

 

[GoonieFace]

Again it comes down to projection. Many fans hate Marner because they wish they could be in Marner’s position. They wish they could be playing for the leafs and they honestly believe they’d do better and for a fraction of a cost. A lot of us have probably dreamed about playing for the leafs and they are projecting their feelings onto Marner. He’s the hometown guy not making good on his opportunity that’s why it causes so much more vitriol when it comes to him.

But never the less I don’t get why people take it so personally. At the end of the day these guys shouldn’t affect our lives to a crazy degree and if they do that isn’t healthy.

This is pretty silly to put it mildly

 

[Antropovsky]

We all know the answer, but why are you using individual shot-based stats that completely ignore playmaking value to compare a playmaker to goalscorers?

He's ranking much lower than the rest of the core 4 in all the categories on natural stat trick.

Yet Marner supporters want to post words not capable of being quantified.. Like he's very good defensively and he's a playmaker first.


IPP - Take all of the even-strength goals scored by a team with Player X on the ice and label that total G. Take all of the points (goals or assists) awarded to Player X on those even-strength goals and label that total P. The individual points percentage (IPP) is then calculated as 100*(P/G). The average IPP value for forwards is 70%. The average IPP value for defensemen is 30%.

Morgan Reilly: 76.92% - 76th
John Tavares: - 71.43%- 90th
Austin Matthews: 71.43%- 92nd
William Nylander: 66.67% - 101st
Mitch Marner: 60% - 119th

 

[supermann_98]

One way to show someone is biased with their data is when they block out one of the greatest comebacks in Leafs history (August 7th, 2020) in which the Leafs staved off elimination and won in overtime. I know Marner's 3 points in that game hurts your worldview but how can I take any else of that seriously after it? Add in not including the first game from 2019 (for bias sake again of course) and we are left with an incomplete picture are we not?


and unclutch? I guess you could say that.

But how about Kucherov?

He has 1 goal and 8 assists in his last 19 elimination games.
Marner has 1 goal and 9 assists in his last 14 elimination games.

Kucherov has a rep for being this killer in big games and that just wasnt the case...but thats not really the slam on him it appears. A lot of big stars go somewhat invisible in big playoff games which are close-checking, low-scoring affairs and Tampa's hero, the reason for all of their success has been Vasy of course.

In those 19 games (which Tampa never scored more than 4 goals in and only 3 times):

6 shutouts
2 or less goals allowed in 14 of the games

I assure you it hasnt been choking D that is the reason Vasy has close to a .950 in these games. For all his accolades, he still doesnt get enough credit.

Kucherov has been very impressive overall in the playoffs though just not when things really tighten up. The fact his production was so poor in those games and he still ended up with crazy numbers shows he's probably the guy who got them there in the first place.

Maybe Bolts fans would be running him out of town for his lack of "clutch" if the goaltending roles were reversed? I dunno.

I applaud you for digging up whatever you could though.

Darren Ferris’s burner account? Come on man I don’t know how you applaud losing so spectacularly that you’d go and bring up Mitch’s playoff history as a positive. Compared to his regular season he’s a complete shell of himself come playoff time.