Mitch Marner (Trade or Keep)?

[Zybalto]

You're the one posting a few misleading stats. I just added context.

Its not misleading to state Marner has more points than any other Leaf over the last 3 playoffs, no matter how you want to spin it.

....and you're the one still ignoring the value of D while claiming Marner had his worst "playoffs" ever despite being the MVP of the series 1 win and one of the best players leaguewide of the first round.

So all of this is over a bad series? (or more accurately 3 bad games in that series)

He's one of the handful players making top 20 salaries in this stupid cap world actually worth the money and people want to trade him?

Crazy talk man.

 

[Zybalto]

Glad you agree Marner is unclutch. Could have just said that from the start instead of posting a bunch of stats without context. He's a great regular season player, nobody is disputing that but the bigger the games get, the more Marner fades away. Unclutch is if anything an understatement.

Theres no doubt his production drops in elimination games as it does for many stars in the league. I wouldnt say he "fades away" though as he usually remains a lock down defensive winger and good PKer while other forwards who are mainly scoring wingers are the ones that actually do become quite useless when they are not scoring.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Theres no doubt his production drops in elimination games as it does for many stars in the league. I wouldnt say he "fades away" though as he usually remains a lock down defensive winger and good PKer while other forwards who are mainly scoring wingers are the ones that actually do become quite useless when they are not scoring.

Last year, average goals per game in the playoffs ranged from 6.21 to 6.67 in games 1-6 of series. The average goals per game in game 7s was 4.25.
This is a trend that consistently shows up each year too. And of goals that are scored in game 7s, stars tend to make up a smaller proportion of that scoring.
Plus, stars that do have good game 7 production tend to get it from a small number of outlier instances where they rack up points when the opposing team abandons defense trying to tie it with their season on the line (which we haven't really had the benefit of experiencing), not from consistent production within those games.
It's amazing how this narrative has been attached to Marner, when it's more just a fact of hockey.
Also amazing that, as you pointed out, everything else they bring gets ignored as well.

 

[IPS]

Last year, average goals per game in the playoffs ranged from 6.21 to 6.67 in games 1-6 of series. The average goals per game in game 7s was 4.25.
This is a trend that consistently shows up each year too. And of goals that are scored in game 7s, stars tend to make up a smaller proportion of that scoring.
Plus, stars that do have good game 7 production tend to get it from a small number of outlier instances where they rack up points when the opposing team abandons defense trying to tie it with their season on the line (which we haven't really had the benefit of experiencing), not from consistent production within those games.
It's amazing how this narrative has been attached to Marner, when it's more just a fact of hockey.

If that's actually true then it seems like an even more terrible idea to invest that much cap in 4 forwards.

You're gonna invest all that cap in forwards even though star players are scoring less and less in the playoffs according to you.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Theres no doubt his production drops in elimination games as it does for many stars in the league. I wouldnt say he "fades away" though as he usually remains a lock down defensive winger and good PKer while other forwards who are mainly scoring wingers are the ones that actually do become quite useless when they are not scoring.

Are there any other stars who's production drops off from the first 4 games of playoff series to the last three so dramatically?

Games 1-4 - 1.19 PPG
Games 5-7 - 0.47 PPG

As far as other forwards becoming "quite useless", spare us the hyperbole.

 

[IPS]

Yep - one giant point ahead of Nylander (and seven tiny goals behind) in those three playoffs, despite having averaged 5½ minutes more per game. At even strength four fewer goals and two fewer points than Nylander (but only 2 minutes more ES time per game).

But Mitch did have the handicap of playing with better linemates, and almost 25% more PP time per game.

Hmmm: "relative their teammates". Does that mean that Matty and Mitch are great, or just that we had a badly balanced team?

Doesn't honestly look as good as Zybalto makes it out to be when you add some context in.

These guys are still making Marner out to be like he's some prime Hossa or Zetterberg in the defensive zone when he's shown to be nothing of the sort in the playoffs - not even close actually.

I'll appreciate Marner for what he is - it only serves to fuel the hatred when you try to build him into something he's not.

 

[thusk]

I actually made a typo as I forgot to add the last game of the Panthers series for Marner:

Kucherov has 1 goal and 8 assists in his last 19 elimination games.
Marner has 1 goal and 9 assists in his last 15 elimination games.

Feel free to post it and have some fun if ya want. You were the one who was spouting off on how points in elimination games defines your "clutchness" and how Marner was the least clutch player. I came up with an even more "unclutch" one pretty quick for you and even defended him against it. The difference between how many points Kucherov scores in the "less important" games is far greater too. Personally, I think game 1 is just as important as 7 and, like I said, Kucherov is still the guy that got them there even if he wasnt able to produce as well in elimination games. HOF Goalie and an actual supporting cast can make a difference in a 20ish player team sport for sure.

So yea, go ahead and post that with your theory on how that makes him a garbage playoff player (if you are being consistent). You have my blessing.

Since 2021, Kucherov had 2 goal 4 assist in 14 decisive game

Marner had 1 goal 4 assist in 9 decisive game

Yep - one giant point ahead of Nylander (and seven tiny goals behind) in those three playoffs, despite having averaged 5½ minutes more per game. At even strength four fewer goals and two fewer points than Nylander (but only 2 minutes more ES time per game).

But Mitch did have the handicap of playing with better linemates, and almost 25% more PP time per game.

Hmmm: "relative their teammates". Does that mean that Matty and Mitch are great, or just that we had a badly balanced team?

Yeah nylander had been great at 4v4 and 6v5, been pretty average to bad at 5v5

And the difference of ice time between marner and nylander is not on offensive situation... its because marner is much better defensivly and playing much more on those defensive situation. Like protecting a lead, after a penakty kill but still without the puck, when exemple tampa sending kucherov on the ice and keefe making every thing he can to send marner against kuch line...

Marner making everybody around him better, its not the case for nylander...

Yes in the offensive side he can make his teammate looking better but will make his d looking worst than what they are in the defensive end. His defensive impact last 3-4 season defensive side is probably as high than Simmonds impact..

 

[Gary Nylund]

If we get Nylander signed, I feel like we can drive a hard bargain with Marner. All the core with be signed except him.

I like the way you think - after the way we bent over for him last time, driving a hard bargain would be a refreshing change. He obviously wants to stay here in his home town, the center of the hockey world, play with a generational goal scorer and benefit from endorsement deals that are more than he would get anywhere else so why not use that leverage? And unless he shows dramatic improvement next spring, the fact that he has a habit of fading away in the biggest games isn't helping us in the playoffs so unlike Matthews and Nylander, if the choice is between overpaying him and letting him walk, I'd let him walk and use the cap space elsewhere.

 

[IPS]

Are there any other stars who's production drops off from the first 4 games of playoff series to the last three so dramatically?

Games 1-4 - 1.19 PPG
Games 5-7 - 0.47 PPG

As far as other forwards becoming "quite useless", spare us the hyperbole.

Marner has serious problems producing when the playoff games get intense. Hell most of his game falls apart - he's been involved in a few series deciding goals in a bad way. It's pulling teeth to get those posters to even acknowledge it his struggles there.

Will it improve? Very possibly, but it's been a problem - there's no denying that. There's an extremely good reason why all the Marner "support" (for lack of a better term) completely dries up the preceding couple months after the Leafs get eliminated. People see the kind of game Marner brings in those games 5-7 and it's putrid, there's nothing to defend about it. His biggest defenders will disappear until it isn't so fresh in the memory and then come back with the same narratives.

 

[Dekes For Days]

If that's actually true then it seems like an even more terrible idea to invest that much cap in 4 forwards.

You're gonna invest all that cap in forwards even though star players are scoring less and less in the playoffs according to you.

There's nothing wrong with investing cap in amazing players.
Star players aren't scoring less and less in the playoffs. Game 7s just tend to produce lesser scoring for a number of reasons.
The terrible idea would be cherry picking surface level points with zero context out of specific cherry picked games from an already small and badly representative sample to make broad, clearly incorrect conclusions about players.

 

[IPS]

There's nothing wrong with investing cap in amazing players.

last year marked the 1st year a team had a $10M+ player win a cup. The results actually fully line up with this theory.

You just posted that star players are seemingly involved less and less in offense come playoff time.

Kind of hilarious but you just inadvertently crapped on our salary structure and how it's an inherent disadvantage come playoff time. And the best part of it is - the results say exactly what they should.

 

[Stephen]

I actually made a typo as I forgot to add the last game of the Panthers series for Marner:

Kucherov has 1 goal and 8 assists in his last 19 elimination games.
Marner has 1 goal and 9 assists in his last 15 elimination games.

Feel free to post it and have some fun if ya want. You were the one who was spouting off on how points in elimination games defines your "clutchness" and how Marner was the least clutch player. I came up with an even more "unclutch" one pretty quick for you and even defended him against it. The difference between how many points Kucherov scores in the "less important" games is far greater too. Personally, I think game 1 is just as important as 7 and, like I said, Kucherov is still the guy that got them there even if he wasnt able to produce as well in elimination games. HOF Goalie and an actual supporting cast can make a difference in a 20ish player team sport for sure.

So yea, go ahead and post that with your theory on how that makes him a garbage playoff player (if you are being consistent). You have my blessing.

Let me preface this by saying I hate Kucherov with a passion…

But in the 2020 and 2021 playoffs, he put up 34 and 32 playoff points in each year in 48 total games and won 2 Stanley Cups over 8 playoff rounds.

That’s 1 more playoff round, 2 games less and 20 odd more playoff points than Marner has in his entire career.

Can we just hold off on making the most painful head on comparisons possible for Mitch? I don’t think these awful comparison games are doing him any favours in the fan appreciation department.

 

[thusk]

I like the way you think - after the way we bent over for him last time, driving a hard bargain would be a refreshing change. He obviously wants to stay here in his home town, the center of the hockey world, play with a generational goal scorer and benefit from endorsement deals that are more than he would get anywhere else so why not use that leverage? And unless he shows dramatic improvement next spring, the fact that he has a habit of fading away in the biggest games isn't helping us in the playoffs so unlike Matthews and Nylander, if the choice is between overpaying him and letting him walk, I'd let him walk and use the cap space elsewhere.

Game 7 is not a biggest game than game 1... if youre needing a game 7 is because you was not good enough to close the serie before this

Winning game 1 2 3 4 is not worst than winning game 4 5 6 7. You need to win 4 game whatever what happening

 

[Zybalto]

Let me preface this by saying I hate Kucherov with a passion…

But in the 2020 and 2021 playoffs, he put up 34 and 32 playoff points in each year in 48 total games and won 2 Stanley Cups over 8 playoff rounds.

That’s 1 more playoff round, 2 games less and 20 odd more playoff points than Marner has in his entire career.

Can we just hold off on making the most painful head on comparisons possible for Mitch? I don’t think these awful comparison games are doing him any favours in the fan appreciation department.

Hey, I was defending and propping up Kutch here.

I was just using the comparison in elimination games to highlight that applying the same logic to Kutcherov would give you the same result but even more extreme. If Marner is unclutch then Kucherov may be the most unclutch player in NHL history looking at the differential in his production in "big" games vs. non......but I think thats overblown for the reasons I stated.

 

[IPS]

I really, really want to seen an alternate dimension where Mitch didn't turn the fanbase against him by making contract negotations as toxic as humanly possible and basically extorting the Leafs for an overpayment.

I would bet so much money that the perception on him would be different, and the fanbase would be much more forgiving of his struggles in certain times.

Hey, I was defending and propping up Kutch here.

I was just using the comparison in elimination games to highlight that applying the same logic to Kutcherov would give you the same result but even more extreme. If Marner is unclutch then Kucherov may be the most unclutch player in NHL history looking at the differential in his production in "big" games vs. non......but I think thats overblown for the reasons I stated.

You did actually make a good point.

Is there any other examples of what players have produced in their last ~15ish elimination games? I really wonder who's the best and who's the worst.

 

[Zybalto]

Since 2021, Kucherov had 2 goal 4 assist in 14 decisive game

Marner had 1 goal 4 assist in 9 decisive game

Damn, did I miss a Kuch goal somewhere?

Was trying to be accurate.

Bah, my point still stands lol.

 

[Stephen]

Hey, I was defending and propping up Kutch here.

I was just using the comparison in elimination games to highlight that applying the same logic to Kutcherov would give you the same result but even more extreme. If Marner is unclutch then Kucherov may be the most unclutch player in NHL history looking at the differential in his production in "big" games vs. non......but I think thats overblown for the reasons I stated.

To each their own but at the end of the day the Kucherov and Tampa have 2 Stanley Cups and we have debates.

 

[Dekes For Days]

last year marked the 1st year a team had a $10M+ player win a cup.

And we'll have a lot more in the coming years, as the cap continues to rise. Because it's an alarmist statement designed to create an immediate emotional reaction, that when you look a bit closer, doesn't actually say anything (and especially not that it's bad to invest cap in top tier players).
Which is why the goal post of that statement is shifted every year when the previous version is proven wrong.

You just posted that star players are seemingly involved less and less in offense come playoff time.

Again, that's not what was said. The actual statement was repeated twice and very straightforward. Not sure why you're misunderstanding.

 

[thusk]

Let me preface this by saying I hate Kucherov with a passion…

But in the 2020 and 2021 playoffs, he put up 34 and 32 playoff points in each year in 48 total games and won 2 Stanley Cups over 8 playoff rounds.

That’s 1 more playoff round, 2 games less and 20 odd more playoff points than Marner has in his entire career.

Can we just hold off on making the most painful head on comparisons possible for Mitch? I don’t think these awful comparison games are doing him any favours in the fan appreciation department.

Before 26

Kucherov had 61 points in 65 game in carreer
Vs
47 in 50 for marner

Marner last 2 years in was in range of 29 points and 28 last 2 in 25-23 game span to compare it to kucherov production on both bolts cup... not that huge

Damn, did I miss a Kuch goal somewhere?

Was trying to be accurate.

Bah, my point still stands lol.

He scored on 5v3 vs toronto and i think against colorado if i remembered on pp too

 

[IPS]

And we'll have a lot more in the coming years, as the cap continues to rise. Because it's an alarmist statement designed to create an immediate emotional reaction, that when you look a bit closer, doesn't actually say anything (and especially not that it's bad to invest cap in top tier players).
Which is why the goal post of that statement is shifted every year when the previous version is proven wrong.

It's actually more of a statement to support an argument that doing an unprecedented cap allocation towards forwards may not be the best approach to a cap structure, you trying to paint it as some irrational emotional reaction is quite dishonest.

Again, that's not what was said. The actual statement was repeated twice and very clear. Not sure why you're misunderstanding.

I did misunderstand, sorry about that.

 

[ToneDog]

Since 2021, Kucherov had 2 goal 4 assist in 14 decisive game

Marner had 1 goal 4 assist in 9 decisive game



Yeah nylander had been great at 4v4 and 6v5, been pretty average to bad at 5v5

And the difference of ice time between marner and nylander is not on offensive situation... its because marner is much better defensivly and playing much more on those defensive situation. Like protecting a lead, after a penakty kill but still without the puck, when exemple tampa sending kucherov on the ice and keefe making every thing he can to send marner against kuch line...

Marner making everybody around him better, its not the case for nylander...

Yes in the offensive side he can make his teammate looking better but will make his d looking worst than what they are in the defensive end. His defensive impact last 3-4 season defensive side is probably as high than Simmonds impact..

That's the thing. Tampa got by when Kutch was neutralized. We cannot.

And for anybody claiming Marner > Kutch, he is not listening because he has his two SC rings plugged into his ears. Mitch on the other hand is busy making ads for Justo, insurance companies, Skip, and stupid skits with Leon at the cottage. LOL.

 

[Zybalto]

You did actually make a good point.

Is there any other examples of what players have produced in their last ~15ish elimination games? I really wonder who's the best and who's the worst.

I kinda have to do the work manually so its tough to calculate just targeting a player and looking back. All of Tampa's stars have been underwhelming over the years in this area though with all those tight wins Vasy got for them on the way to the cups.

Guys like Mark Stone had horrid playoff stats before last year and Eichel was a ghost in big games too right?

To each their own but at the end of the day the Kucherov and Tampa have 2 Stanley Cups and we have debates.

Yup.

...and does trading Marner make us better or worse for achieving that ourselves?

Thats why I post the REL numbers. We should talk about replacing net negative players and not a positive who was the MVP of our only series win.

If we had a Vasy that helped dragged us to cups and the same Marner doing the exact same things would be a hero even if he put up nothing in any elimination games the entire playoffs. Comes with being a winner in a team sport.

 

[Zybalto]

I think people have to remember Mitch was about as involved in his contract negotiations as he was in the development of the covid vaccine.

These guys all have agents and handlers who make all the decisions when it comes to contracts and to put it on Marner or Nylander or any other player is pure nonsense....and its a good thing they dont get involved. Have you seen these players IQ when it comes to anything non hockey related?

Thats kind of nuts. The fact so many hold a grudge against him for something he's not involved in wrapped up in the dumbest cap system in professional sports.

 

[thusk]

That's the thing. Tampa got by when Kutch was neutralized. We cannot.

And for anybody claiming Marner > Kutch, he is not listening because he has his two SC rings plugged into his ears. Mitch on the other hand is busy making ads for Justo, insurance companies, Skip, and stupid skits with Leon at the cottage. LOL.

To each their own but at the end of the day the Kucherov and Tampa have 2 Stanley Cups and we have debates.

I not telling hes better or not... just telling hes not a reason why leafs losing.

How many time laqfs was trailing last 3 years?

How many of those trail was result of 1 weak goal or even more allowed? Too much... when youre need to overcome of 1-2 weak goal every game youre playing and having to win your game with come back by scoring at least 4 goal, you will not win a lot of game...

Just watch this season... leafs gave up 1st goal every game, 3 of 5 goal allowed was weak, 1 was lucky and the last one wqs a save samsonov had to make. They needed everything to beat mtl, they needed a Woll the be fantastic and perfect remaining of the game to come back... and were in regular season without any pressure...

When youre goalie cost you 2 game every series like it was the case in every of last 4 series leafs played+ youre adding ability to opposite G to steal at least 1 game... thats meaning youre needing to win all 4 remaining game. After every one coming and trying to understand why leafs lost again.

The only good goalie had was Andersen but the problem was when andersen was healthy, leafs didn't really had the team to make a rund except second series vs Boston when leafs traded for Muzzin... after health issues started with him and leafs had no choice to move from him for that reason.

Personally my only hope to make a run in playoff, its Woll. For me marner can only help Woll to step up because hes the best leafs player defensive side of the puck. No body in leafs roster having as much impact defensivly than marner

 

[ToneDog]

I not telling hes better or not... just telling hes not a reason why leafs losing.

How many time laqfs was trailing last 3 years?

How many of those trail was result of 1 weak goal or even more allowed? Too much... when youre need to overcome of 1-2 weak goal every game youre playing and having to win your game with come back by scoring at least 4 goal, you will not win a lot of game...

Just watch this season... leafs gave up 1st goal every game, 3 of 5 goal allowed was weak, 1 was lucky and the last one wqs a save samsonov had to make. They needed everything to beat mtl, they needed a Woll the be fantastic and perfect remaining of the game to come back... and were in regular season without any pressure...

When youre goalie cost you 2 game every series like it was the case in every of last 4 series leafs played+ youre adding ability to opposite G to steal at least 1 game... thats meaning youre needing to win all 4 remaining game. After every one coming and trying to understand why leafs lost again.

The only good goalie had was Andersen but the problem was when andersen was healthy, leafs didn't really had the team to make a rund except second series vs Boston when leafs traded for Muzzin... after health issues started with him and leafs had no choice to move from him for that reason.

Personally my only hope to make a run in playoff, its Woll. For me marner can only help Woll to step up because hes the best leafs player defensive side of the puck. No body in leafs roster having as much impact defensivly than marner

You can win with a Woll but you have to have a solid D. Proven by Vegas last year. Our D needs a couple of upgrades. No way Brodie, Lily and Gio can survive in a third round IMO.