Mitch Marner (Trade or Keep)?

[Mugzy97]

It sounds like Matthews might be the playoffs problem.

Maybe it’s the rookie NHL coach?

 

[alliuk12]

Mitch is playing to get out of Toronto he doesn’t want to be here anymore. Working under a coach that doesn’t know how to coach so as soon as they offer him a trade he’s gone

 

[kevsh]

He even said in his last conference that if he's back, nothing is off the table.

But another strike of bad luck... The transition from Lou to Dubas was at the worst time and the transition from Dubas to Treliving was too.

Fair points, but my theory remains that it doesn't really matter who is in the GM's chair, the stars are untouchables and partly because they know it, they are getting top dollar.

I also believe (with much less certainty) that part of the reason Dubas is gone is precisely because he wanted to believe "nothing is off the table". And that was behind his push for more autonomy (at least that's one way it was interpreted).

That was a deal breaker in MLSE Land where the one thing that is off the table - not happening - is trading away any of the stars. Oh, and a GM that doesn't have to run deals by the board, specifically one that involves trading away the stars.

 

[ULF_55]

Tell me you havent watched the playoffs without actually telling me you haven't watch the playoffs.

Well, if there is nothing wrong with marner's playoffs performance and Nylander definitely earns his dollars, but between them Tavares, Matthews and marner scored one goal in the Florida series it has to be Matthews?

The Matthews-marner can't no show in playoffs series without one of them being the weak link. And it has happened more than once, not just this year.

Anyway, I'm just mucking around the results speak for themselves it isn't a very good playoffs team.

I think everyone can agree with that as there is no evidence to the contrary.

 

[Canadian Finn]

my brother and I started the Mitch Marner drinking game.

every time he gets knocked down (which is a lot, but that isn't the game) and he cries to the ref (often causing him to miss a follow up play), we take a drink.

had to up the 26'er to a 40 in preparation for tonight.

cry little mitchy, cry.

 

[Machinae]

Marner is a 6 million dollar winger who got to play with elite centers and pulled the wool over the eyes of Dubas, Shanahan, and the fans. You never, ever, pay wingers this much money.

Considering how little it took for other teams to trade for players such as Ekholm, Eichel, Hall, Brodin, Karlsson... Those 4 1st round picks from Columbus could've easily fetched multiple pieces. Instead the Leafs overpay wingers and have to pay 4x the value in a trade for a dud like McCabe just to have his salary reduced.

 

[thewave]

The circle jerk of ignorance in this thread is pretty comical.

I know it's hilarious. There are people here comparing him to Gretzky, I know I know, it's funny though you have to admit.

Marner is a 6 million dollar winger who got to play with elite centers and pulled the wool over the eyes of Dubas, Shanahan, and the fans. You never, ever, pay wingers this much money.

Considering how little it took for other teams to trade for players such as Ekholm, Eichel, Hall, Brodin, Karlsson... Those 4 1st round picks from Columbus could've easily fetched multiple pieces. Instead the Leafs overpay wingers and have to pay 4x the value in a trade for a dud like McCabe just to have his salary reduced.

Nah he is about 8m - 9m tops

 

[francis246]

We are a top 5 regular-season team, but we managed to temper playoff expectations so much, that we are never the favourite to win it.

1-7 , 50% of the teams in the 1st round move forward.
An average team (say one without Marner) should be 4:4.

Half of the teams moved on and we managed it once in 8 years no matter how you slice it but to say 1-7 is the best we could hope for given that destiny is always out to hunt Leafs in their pursuit of the Cup is laughable.


Counter-argument:
1-7 is basically SCF if you consider we were a dog in at least two playoff series, plus rookie GM and kids needed maturing, refs out to get Leafs and goalied a lot we were...

Marner isn’t the only reason why we haven’t had success, every single member of the team has come up short throughout their time here. Marner has played bad and made really bad turnovers, Nylander has played bad and given up on plays, Matthews has failed to score, Tavares failed to score, can’t keep up with play. There’s lot of blame to go around.

It’s just idiotic when people try to blame one player. They all have played a huge part. Especially that Florida series, Marner was extremely bad in game 3 but Matthews was dog shit the entire series, I don’t think he had one good game that series and he’s supposed to be our go to guy. If he has a decent game maybe we make a series. Let’s not even talk about goaltending either Samsonov was garbage when we needed a save. It’s everyone on this team withers in crunch time.

 

[francis246]

We are a top 5 regular-season team, but we managed to temper playoff expectations so much, that we are never the favourite to win it.

1-7 , 50% of the teams in the 1st round move forward.
An average team (say one without Marner) should be 4:4.

Half of the teams moved on and we managed it once in 8 years no matter how you slice it but to say 1-7 is the best we could hope for given that destiny is always out to hunt Leafs in their pursuit of the Cup is laughable.


Counter-argument:
1-7 is basically SCF if you consider we were a dog in at least two playoff series, plus rookie GM and kids needed maturing, refs out to get Leafs and goalied a lot we were...

I do agree I’m tired of the underdog narrative. The team has been good enough to win. We’ve even had 3-1,3-2 leads in multiple series and pissed it away.

 

[supermann_98]

Marner is a 6 million dollar winger who got to play with elite centers and pulled the wool over the eyes of Dubas, Shanahan, and the fans. You never, ever, pay wingers this much money.

Considering how little it took for other teams to trade for players such as Ekholm, Eichel, Hall, Brodin, Karlsson... Those 4 1st round picks from Columbus could've easily fetched multiple pieces. Instead the Leafs overpay wingers and have to pay 4x the value in a trade for a dud like McCabe just to have his salary reduced.

Good idea not to drink every time he fell down or dived to make it look like he was putting effort into the play, you'd be hammered before Ron MacLean starts talking about the local minor peewee team in Flin Flon Manitoba during the 1st intermission

 

[thewave]

Marner isn’t the only reason why we haven’t had success, every single member of the team has come up short throughout their time here. Marner has played bad and made really bad turnovers, Nylander has played bad and given up on plays, Matthews has failed to score, Tavares failed to score, can’t keep up with play. There’s lot of blame to go around.

It’s just idiotic when people try to blame one player. They all have played a huge part. Especially that Florida series, Marner was extremely bad in game 3 but Matthews was dog shit the entire series, I don’t think he had one good game that series and he’s supposed to be our go to guy. If he has a decent game maybe we make a series. Let’s not even talk about goaltending either Samsonov was garbage when we needed a save. It’s everyone on this team withers in crunch time.

I agree mostly but come the playoffs I can't really fault Nylander in good conscience. I also have troubles blaming Matthews because he is covered quite aggressively. Marner and JT are certainly weaker in the elimination games though JT has come through at times. Outside of that I think the bigger impact is the lack of depth that we can afford and problems in net and especially the lackluster D core. Those are cap issues and also chemistry issues. I think BT has some more things to do this season before we are ready for a deep playoff run.

 

[IPS]

It's a shame we'll probably lose Nylander because of $500k to $1m and overpay Marner (again) by at LEAST that much.

What's with him falling all over the place this year so far? It's not like it's playoff time yet.

And how can a guy who's such a 'magician' with the puck handle it like a grenade, forget how to make a tape-to-tape pass, and look less patient with the puck than Easton Cowan did while he was here during the pre-season?

Genuinely can't wait to hear the reaction on here when his asking price on an extension starts with $13m

The entire tune on Marner would change ten fold if he would just agree to a Pastrnak type contract with term and everything. In fact 90% of the hate would probably disappear over night.

But no, he's going to demand atleast ~$2M more than Pastrnak and act like he's more comparable to Matthews and Mackinnon than reasonable winger comparisons. And we're supposed to be grateful for it.

Some of these higher producing wingers really gotta get on the PK because apparantly that shit adds atleast 2M to your contract asks.

 

[francis246]

I agree mostly but come the playoffs I can't really fault Nylander in good conscience. I also have troubles blaming Matthews because he covered quite aggressively. Marner and JT are certainly weaker in the elimination games though JT has come through at times. Outside of that I think the bigger impact is the lack of depth that we can afford and problems in net and especially the lackluster D core. Those are cap issues and also chemistry issues. I think BT has some more things to do this season before we are ready for a deep playoff run.

Agreed, the one person I blame the most against MTL was Zach Hyman. I know the default is to blame Marner but how many grade A chances did Hyman have in that series and he just couldn’t bury. He pots one and we move on. In game 5 he had about 2/3 open nets and his stone hands got the best of him. Infuriating.

 

[thewave]

The entire tune on Marner would change ten fold if he would just agree to a Pastrnak type contract with term and everything. In fact 90% of the hate would probably disappear over night.

But no, he's going to demand atleast ~$2M more than Pastrnak and act like he's more comparable to Matthews and Mackinnon than reasonable winger comparisons. And we're supposed to be grateful for it.

Some of these higher producing wingers really gotta get on the PK because apparantly that shit adds atleast 2M to your contract asks.

Pasta makes 11.25m though. Marner isn't worth that, more like 9m (10m in Toronto it seems). Your point is valid about the player, the demands, the cost and what it has to do with cap to build a contender.

 

[IPS]

Pasta makes 11.25m though. Marner isn't worth that, more like 9m (10m in Toronto it seems). Your point is valid about the player, the demands, the cost and what it has to do with cap to build a contender.

Still low but more reasonable than the lunacy demands of $13M+ that we all know are coming.

These assist first wingers have to do some big shit to get big money. Gaudreau came off 115 points and leading the league in ES scoring to get himself a 9.75M x 7 contract. But Marner being good defensively and playing some PK means he gets to be paid about 3 pay grades above Gaudreau? It's not even worth taking seriously IMO but somehow we're gonna end up paying it.

As far as being a 2-way god goes - do something awesome in the playoffs then. Go full Henrik Zetterberg against Sidney Crosby in 2008 against someone. Marner's never done anything close to that in the playoffs, so his 2-way reputation is gonna need some more proving if he's gonna lean on that to get paid too. Zetterberg and Hossa are wingers I looked at who were scary good defensively in the playoffs, Marner has NEVER been that guy in the playoffs yet.

 

[Arzak]

Marner isn’t the only reason why we haven’t had success, every single member of the team has come up short throughout their time here. Marner has played bad and made really bad turnovers, Nylander has played bad and given up on plays, Matthews has failed to score, Tavares failed to score, can’t keep up with play. There’s lot of blame to go around.

It’s just idiotic when people try to blame one player. They all have played a huge part. Especially that Florida series, Marner was extremely bad in game 3 but Matthews was dog shit the entire series, I don’t think he had one good game that series and he’s supposed to be our go to guy. If he has a decent game maybe we make a series. Let’s not even talk about goaltending either Samsonov was garbage when we needed a save. It’s everyone on this team withers in crunch time.

I agree, it's definitely on all of them, not just Marner.

Marner stands out because of bad turnovers, but for me personally, it's those moments out there where he looked visibly scared -more so than any other player I've ever seen in the NHL and that makes me sceptical he can somehow transform into a playoff performer.


It's one thing for Matthews not to score, it's another to demoralize the whole team.

If he can tone it down /toughen up to be the second-softest player in the league I'll start believing in playoff Mitch.

 

[Antropovsky]

Marner isn’t the only reason why we haven’t had success, every single member of the team has come up short throughout their time here. Marner has played bad and made really bad turnovers, Nylander has played bad and given up on plays, Matthews has failed to score, Tavares failed to score, can’t keep up with play. There’s lot of blame to go around.

It’s just idiotic when people try to blame one player. They all have played a huge part. Especially that Florida series, Marner was extremely bad in game 3 but Matthews was dog shit the entire series, I don’t think he had one good game that series and he’s supposed to be our go to guy. If he has a decent game maybe we make a series. Let’s not even talk about goaltending either Samsonov was garbage when we needed a save. It’s everyone on this team withers in crunch time.

.... I can show you multiple articles pointing to Marner as the biggest problem. One of them this:

As you can see Marners stats worsened by much more than the others:

Shot distance from the net regular season vs playoffs (differential in yellow):

Portion of shots from slot in playoffs:

Here's a great post from the article: It’s also tough to make sense of Matthews’ dried-up point totals, but what really dropped were his primary assists, which went from 1.16 (per 60) to 0.48. Hindsight is 20/20, but seeing how far Marner was living from the net in the above stats, and that Calle Jarnkrok was on Matthews’ left side, maybe it would’ve been tough to tally many points on passes.

I can show you 5 or more plays in elimination games where Marner gave the puck away and led to goals against. I can maybe find one between the other three.

 

[Havoc]

Marners gonna slap everyone with 120 points by game 82. What's the point even bringing him up in the regular season.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Marners gonna slap everyone with 120 points by game 82. What's the point even bringing him up in the regular season.

Well, you just did ...

I'm a bit surprised about all the talk about Marner getting 120 this season, seems like a big ask for a guy who's never hit 100 so odds are, it's not happening. But I'm more surprised that people even care about regular season this or that, especially when it comes to individual stats.

I don't care how many regular season points anyone gets, what I want to see is the team still playing in the 3rd round of the playoffs. If Marner does his part and plays at a consistently high level in the playoffs then I'll be happy with him and by the same token, if he fades away when the games get bigger as has been his habit, I don't care if he hits 150 point in the regular season, he'll still be a disappointment to me.

 

[Havoc]

Well, you just did ...

I'm a bit surprised about all the talk about Marner getting 120 this season, seems like a big ask for a guy who's never hit 100 so odds are, it's not happening. But I'm more surprised that people even care about regular season this or that, especially when it comes to individual stats.

I don't care how many regular season points anyone gets, what I want to see is the team still playing in the 3rd round of the playoffs. If Marner does his part and plays at a consistently high level in the playoffs then I'll be happy with him and by the same token, if he fades away when the games get bigger as has been his habit, I don't care if he hits 150 point in the regular season, he'll still be a disappointment to me.

What I meant was his current play to begin the season is starting to stir hate. People are just going to start looking foolish when he inevitably begins to take over the games soon. It's going to happen.

As for the playoffs, Marner is still in his prime. Among his peers he always stands out, and the strong veterans who over power him are only getting older. It's a clean slate for me every year due to his age. He has to actually choke in 23/24 for me to call him out. The past is the past. Marner is a conn Smythe candidate until he proves otherwise this season.

 

[Antropovsky]

66 point pace so far.... Gonna need 1.5 ppg from here on out to get 120 (1.46 over 82).

These are the players who've reached 1.5 pot in the past:

2023 - Mcdavid, Mackinnon and Draisaitl
2022- Mcdavid
2021 - draisaitl and Mcdavid
2020 - draisaitl and mcdavid
2019 - Kucherov.

At this point, I think we should all be ecstatic if Marner manages to reach 100 points for the first time in his career this year.

 

[HellasLEAF]

How has this player been making double digits in the NHL.

 

[Leaf4Life79]

Trade him for help on the blueline

 

[Evilhomer]

66 point pace so far.... Gonna need 1.5 ppg from here on out to get 120 (1.46 over 82).

These are the players who've reached 1.5 pot in the past:

2023 - Mcdavid, Mackinnon and Draisaitl
2022- Mcdavid
2021 - draisaitl and Mcdavid
2020 - draisaitl and mcdavid
2019 - Kucherov.

At this point, I think we should all be ecstatic if Marner manages to reach 100 points for the first time in his career this year.

Why do you need him to reach 120 points? How on Earth can anyone complain about having one of the best offensive players in the NHL? Would you prefer to have Leo Komarov back on the first line?

 

[PeE eL DuBoiS]

Marner is a 6 million dollar winger who got to play with elite centers and pulled the wool over the eyes of Dubas, Shanahan, and the fans. You never, ever, pay wingers this much money.

Considering how little it took for other teams to trade for players such as Ekholm, Eichel, Hall, Brodin, Karlsson... Those 4 1st round picks from Columbus could've easily fetched multiple pieces. Instead the Leafs overpay wingers and have to pay 4x the value in a trade for a dud like McCabe just to have his salary reduced.

Nah. I think you should be able to tell how little I like Marner, but he has some excellent puck talent. He's not leeching off of Matthews by any means. The problem is, he needs regular season space and to get into a rhythm with his confidence. He wilts when he's pressured or bodied.

He is not a $12M player when he's outside his ideal, pond hockey conditions. He is not going to have any sustained playoff success. He really, really needs to be traded for cap space such that we retain Nylander.