Value of: Mitch Marner this offseason (2.5 mil retained)

[GCK]

Yes it would take a 2024 pick out of play. But we don’t have 2025 so that’s the cupboard that needs filling.
Also. The leafs under dubas did this a lot. Processed trades after sb.

Brown/zaitsev comes to mind



I don’t think we are “giving him away” I think that this is a bad spot for him. He doesn’t like the hometown thing. He is fighting by with the media. His agent and dad caused bad blood.

I think he wants a new start.
The cap is going up. They have 20 million in space. They don’t need to get rid of him at all.

If he would sign long term I think he could still be great here. It sounds like he wants out

Where is the “he wants out” stuff coming from.

 

[CornKicker]

Marner retained for Dubois and a 2nd. both players need a change of scenery. Dubois gives the leafs a big strong C at a controlled cost for the next 6-7 years.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Where is the “he wants out” stuff coming from.

They are hoping that roasting him on social media and real life forces him to want out. It could work i guess. I don't think MLSE is thrilled with the idea

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I don’t think we are “giving him away” I think that this is a bad spot for him. He doesn’t like the hometown thing. He is fighting by with the media. His agent and dad caused bad blood.

I think he wants a new start.
The cap is going up. They have 20 million in space. They don’t need to get rid of him at all.

If he would sign long term I think he could still be great here. It sounds like he wants out

I personally think you guys swapped Babcock, with a Babcock clone.

Ever since Quenneville basically used extensive scouting and found weaknesses in the other team to exploit, that's been the model for the "modern" NHL coach.

Nobody looks at that Toronto Roster and thinks "yeah, these guys need to muck it up along the boards, grind out one goal wins".

So why the f*** do you have coaches that do nothing but play that same way in the playoffs?

Keefe should have been turfed after his 1st playoff loss. The 2nd one was completely unacceptable. What f***ing franchise gives that kind of loser 5-cracks at that?

He is now reaching 'Todd MacLellan with the Sharks' levels of ineptitude by cramming a square peg in that round hole. Notice how they minute they let go of TMac, the Sharks made the finals?

Marner retained for Dubois and a 2nd. both players need a change of scenery. Dubois gives the leafs a big strong C at a controlled cost for the next 6-7 years.

LMFAO Marner in a 1-3-1 certainly fits the billing.
LA Kings seem to love collecting smallish skilled wingers to play grindy Sutter-style trap hockey.

 

[DingerMcSlapshot]

Mitch isn't returning much. Even at 2.5M retained.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Marner for Nurse 1 for 1?

 

[My3Sons]

I personally think you guys swapped Babcock, with a Babcock clone.

Ever since Quenneville basically used extensive scouting and found weaknesses in the other team to exploit, that's been the model for the "modern" NHL coach.

Nobody looks at that Toronto Roster and thinks "yeah, these guys need to muck it up along the boards, grind out one goal wins".

So why the f*** do you have coaches that do nothing but play that same way in the playoffs?

Keefe should have been turfed after his 1st playoff loss. The 2nd one was completely unacceptable. What f***ing franchise gives that kind of loser 5-cracks at that?

He is now reaching 'Todd MacLellan with the Sharks' levels of ineptitude by cramming a square peg in that round hole. Notice how they minute they let go of TMac, the Sharks made the finals?



LMFAO Marner in a 1-3-1 certainly fits the billing.
LA Kings seem to love collecting smallish skilled wingers to play grindy Sutter-style trap hockey.

that's an interesting question about coaching in the playoffs. My impression is that the holding clutching grabbing and interference is called even less frequently in the playoffs. Maybe the hitting in the back gets called more often now than it did back in the day but that's not really part of a long term coaching style. But the constant slowing down of the game is in my view. Keeping it really close to the vest allows for less talented players to compete. Teams that do it well have plenty of regular season success although playing a bunch of one goal games in the playoffs can be tricky. Excellent point you raised.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

that's an interesting question about coaching in the playoffs. My impression is that the holding clutching grabbing and interference is called even less frequently in the playoffs. Maybe the hitting in the back gets called more often now than it did back in the day but that's not really part of a long term coaching style. But the constant slowing down of the game is in my view. Keeping it really close to the vest allows for less talented players to compete. Teams that do it well have plenty of regular season success although playing a bunch of one goal games in the playoffs can be tricky. Excellent point you raised.

Small skilled wingers can thrive in the playoffs.

Marchessault won the Smyth last year. Patty Kane won one. Kucherov lead the playoffs in scoring more than once.

None of them are grindy defensive wingers who thrive on board battles.

 

[CDN24]

Mitch isn't returning much. Even at 2.5M retained.

The only way the Leafs get a significant return IMO is if they trade him after July 1st and he agrees to an extension in advance of the trade. Even for this to work you need
a) a team that wants to acquire him
B) Mitch has to be willing to go there and sign extension
c) they have to agree on dollars and term

The question is what is he worth. what is someone willing to pay for him on an extension.

For me is Market value on an extension is less than what he currently earns, will he be willing to extend for less than $11M, he may just say F&^% it lets see what I can get as a UFA.

He has been significantly overpaid on his last contract, especially given his play off numbers. Back when he signed that deal the three big RFAs were him, Point, and Rantanen. He signed for 10.9 6 yrs, Rantenen 9.25 6 years, and Point a 3 yr bridge at 6.75 then extended 2 yrs ago at 9.5M

In playoffs since those contracts were signed

Mitch 37GP 6G 27A 33 points .89 PPG
Point 66GP 34G 26A 70 points 1.06 PPG 2 cups and 3 finals
Rantanen 57 GP 26G 52A 78 points 1.37 PPg and 1 cup.

while each is arguably the no 2 guy on their teams one is not like the others.

What are Point and Rantanen worth now if they were extending? maybe 11M. Marner is not worth that kind of money, he scores way less, does not elevate in playoffs.

In a straight trade what you take back will have flaws too.

Marner for Seth Jones- who says no?

 

[My3Sons]

Small skilled wingers can thrive in the playoffs.

Marchessault won the Smyth last year. Patty Kane won one. Kucherov lead the playoffs in scoring more than once.

None of them are grindy defensive wingers who thrive on board battles.

Sure. Marchand has had success as well. Marchand and Kucherov both make space for themselves as necessary. Some of it has to do with team makeup. One or two smaller guys in an otherwise bigger lineup are likely fine and if the team is just that fast and skilled it won’t slow down just because some players may be smaller and I think TB fit this profile when they won their most recent cups. But most teams don’t have great depth of talent. Look at Boston or even Carolina. They have a few excellent players but a lot of ok players. That’s where I think the coaches resort to the slow down style. They doesn’t mean smaller players can’t be successful (Marchand Jarvis even Aho is not all that big or that physical) but the coaches see what works and what the depth of their lineup does best. I’d prefer to see a more skilled game than a slog but it’s on the league to decide what they want to emphasize.

 

[Brew]

Mitch isn't returning much. Even at 2.5M retained.

I love bad takes. Let’s re-visit this if/when he gets moved.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

that's an interesting question about coaching in the playoffs. My impression is that the holding clutching grabbing and interference is called even less frequently in the playoffs. Maybe the hitting in the back gets called more often now than it did back in the day but that's not really part of a long term coaching style. But the constant slowing down of the game is in my view. Keeping it really close to the vest allows for less talented players to compete. Teams that do it well have plenty of regular season success although playing a bunch of one goal games in the playoffs can be tricky. Excellent point you raised.

This is Marchessault spilling the beans on how he scored so many backbreaking goals [2x Hatties] against the Oilers (And how Cassidy outcoached Woodcroft).

Marchessault spilled the beans on exactly how Vegas knew it could beat Edmonton

Are Skinner, Nurse and Ceci getting too much blame? Definitely

edmontonjournal.com

He did the same against Dallas the next series. He just was given SOO many opportunities down low by exploiting coverage that drew defenders away from the net. Basically the entire gameplan was to figure out different ways for Marchessault to evade defensive assignments. And he created almost NONE of that from scratch.


I saw this goal by Brock Boeser the other game.




And even though it wasn't on the PP, I did one of those Leo Decaprio pointing meme

ONE for ONE it can be described EXACTLY like a PP goal the Oilers scored on them the year before:



It's insane how EXACT this is.



Its clearly obvious the Canucks like what they saw and practiced this SET play. This is the kind of shit that Matthews and Marner should be doing.

 

[Rare Jewel]

How about something around Kempe + Matt Roy (signed) for Marner?

Interesting offer. I think Roy will want to test free agency and likely not come to Canada.
But Kempe + is something to look at.

No they don't. Brining Mitch Marner into this young group would be idiotic.

Neither of you are Hughes, But do you think the Leafs are trading him in the division? lol

 

[My3Sons]

This is Marchessault spilling the beans on how he scored so many backbreaking goals [2x Hatties] against the Oilers (And how Cassidy outcoached Woodcroft).

Marchessault spilled the beans on exactly how Vegas knew it could beat Edmonton

Are Skinner, Nurse and Ceci getting too much blame? Definitely

edmontonjournal.com

He did the same against Dallas the next series. He just was given SOO many opportunities down low by exploiting coverage that drew defenders away from the net. Basically the entire gameplan was to figure out different ways for Marchessault to evade defensive assignments. And he created almost NONE of that from scratch.


I saw this goal by Brock Boeser the other game.




And even though it wasn't on the PP, I did one of those Leo Decaprio pointing meme
View attachment 865818



ONE for ONE it can be described EXACTLY like a PP goal the Oilers scored on them the year before:



It's insane how EXACT this is.

That’s great stuff. Thanks for sharing. Watching Toronto and Boston on Saturday it looked like both teams wanted to just hunker down and clog the middle defensively.

 

[Guess]

The move IMO isn’t to trade Marner. The players the Leafs need aren’t available next season and they have to line themselves up for when Tavares’ cap space comes off the books.

The smarter move is to leverage Marner’s poor performance into a great contract and re-sign him. When he’s on pace for a killer year, trade him. Exactly what they should have done with Nylander earlier in his previous contract. Gotta stop handing out these NMC’s like candy.

LOL resign him at a low contract? He'll just leave and you lose him for nothing.

 

[Medvescak]

Ryan Pulock + Brock Nelson + 18th overall pick

Toronto solidifies the D, gets a 30 goal scorer to help replace some of Marner's production and some extra value

Nice
Leafs can't go wrong with this proven package although Isles must hold onto the draft capital - bare cupboards especially an unsigned/extended Marner.
Pulock's contract is reasonable and not yet 30 - underrated defenseman imo with good term. Definitely not a cap dump by any stretch as someone suggested.
Both players are good historical playoff performers as well.

Could substitute Palmieri for Brock if that's more of interest to the Leafs. Little cheaper than Brock, both on expiring deals.

 

[FerrisRox]

Neither of you are Hughes, But do you think the Leafs are trading him in the division? lol

If I were Trev, I would trade him for the best possible deal I could get with zero reservations about where that might be.

He's literally the last player I would be worried about "burning" me in a future playoff matchup.

 

[barkovcanfinnish]

Wonder if Chicago would move assets for him. They need a top-line vet to put with Bedard

 

[Legion34]

The only way the Leafs get a significant return IMO is if they trade him after July 1st and he agrees to an extension in advance of the trade. Even for this to work you need
a) a team that wants to acquire him
B) Mitch has to be willing to go there and sign extension
c) they have to agree on dollars and term

The question is what is he worth. what is someone willing to pay for him on an extension.

For me is Market value on an extension is less than what he currently earns, will he be willing to extend for less than $11M, he may just say F&^% it lets see what I can get as a UFA.

He has been significantly overpaid on his last contract, especially given his play off numbers. Back when he signed that deal the three big RFAs were him, Point, and Rantanen. He signed for 10.9 6 yrs, Rantenen 9.25 6 years, and Point a 3 yr bridge at 6.75 then extended 2 yrs ago at 9.5M

In playoffs since those contracts were signed

Mitch 37GP 6G 27A 33 points .89 PPG
Point 66GP 34G 26A 70 points 1.06 PPG 2 cups and 3 finals
Rantanen 57 GP 26G 52A 78 points 1.37 PPg and 1 cup.

while each is arguably the no 2 guy on their teams one is not like the others.

What are Point and Rantanen worth now if they were extending? maybe 11M. Marner is not worth that kind of money, he scores way less, does not elevate in playoffs.

In a straight trade what you take back will have flaws too.

Marner for Seth Jones- who says no?

There is zero evidence that playoff performance appreciably. affects contracts of star players. Defiantly not like points

Maybe it should be. But it’s not.
No one said tkachuk. Peterson. Etc got paid based on playoffs.

Bark of was garbage in playoffs. Plenty never even played in playoffs and got paid.

Marner was overpaid. No question.

775 k for a 95 pt player is unprecedented.

 

[57special]

He needs to go back with Dubas, somehow. Have him take care of his own mess.

 

[Drumman44]

Marner retained for Dubois and a 2nd. both players need a change of scenery. Dubois gives the leafs a big strong C at a controlled cost for the next 6-7 years.

Dubois is the last thing on the planet Toronto needs right now

 

[Leaf Fans]

They are hoping that roasting him on social media and real life forces him to want out. It could work i guess. I don't think MLSE is thrilled with the idea

Who is hoping for that?

 

[Grip it N RYP it]

Entertaining thread.

Shall look forward to this for possibly, the next 5 months.

 

[JKG33]

Kempe is probably a good starting point in a Marner deal... however Roy is basically already at UFA, so he will decide whether he wants to sign in Toronto.

I would think that the Leafs would want at least 1 more meaningful piece in this deal... Byfield obviously would be a great add.... maybe Turcotte.

A good starting point??? I wouldn't trade Kempe alone for Marner

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Mitch wants to remain a Leaf long term.