Value of: Mitch Marner this offseason (2.5 mil retained)

[Legion34]

Marner is about as far opposite you can get from a Verbeek type player.

26 year old 95 pt selke level winger for 775k. Sure sounds like a mistake.

I guess they could be aiming for marchessault?

Who is the right shot top line winger they are looking at?

 

[Leaf Fans]

That is one of the only realistic proposals I’ve seen.

That is not realistic.

 

[grewalwings]

If anyone thinks Marner has negative value, you're crazy.

 

[GCK]

If anyone thinks Marner has negative value, you're crazy.

Not negative value but due to AAV, NMC and only 1 year left, his value is not as high as it would warrant without these caveats.

 

[grewalwings]

How about something around Kempe + Matt Roy (signed) for Marner?

 

[GCK]

Someone posted a Seattle trade which could work but this might be more palatable to leafs.

Gourde + Larsson for Marner.

Helps both teams and everyone is 1 year from UFA like the Matthew Tkachuk deal.

 

[Legion34]

Not negative value but due to AAV, NMC and only 1 year left, his value is not as high as it would warrant without these caveats.

Yes I think we all can agree that he wouldn’t have as high of value if he was cheaper had more time on his contract and no trade protection.

But the NMC thing doesn’t really matter here. No matter what, high value with 1 year left to UFA can pick their destinations either way by just signing or not.

Matty T got top value (despite huberdeau turning into a pumpkin) because he was only going to sign

Trouba forced his way to NYR without a NMC.

Hanafin didn’t go to Toronto because he wasn’t going t to sign.

Jones was going to chicago or Dallas.

All of these guys just ended up in places they wanted to be

debrincat (no where near this level) went to Ottawa and they lost the trade the next year

The NMC isn’t some unique thing because it’s pretty rare teams will trade top assets for star players without believing they will sign.

The unique wrinkle here is that Marner will be making 775k.

that’s a massive advantage. People on the internet think that it’s all about aav. It’s not. It’s about money. Rarely do you see players with high AAV have no money attached.

Getting Marner for 1 million this year and say 12x8 (give him a massive contract just to illustrate)

Would actually be 10.7 a year real money over 9 years.

 

[TLEH]

It depends on the team. For a cap team, its about AAV. For an internal cap team, it'll be about money.

Its a tricky one for the Leafs because there is a real gripe with his game and I also think his regular season impact has slowed down a bit as well, but I'm not sure they're going to get "better" by moving him.

 

[4thline]

@Legion34 the 775k factor is definitely real- but that being said it requires threading a needle timing wise. He'd have to be on the Leaf's roster July 1- meaning no 2024 picks in the deal, and it ideally being shook on ready to execute so that both teams can properly execute their UFA plans.

But even with the acquiring team paying the bonus he's only owed 7.25 for this season- still great value on the cash side.

 

[GCK]

Yes I think we all can agree that he wouldn’t have as high of value if he was cheaper had more time on his contract and no trade protection.

But the NMC thing doesn’t really matter here. No matter what, high value with 1 year left to UFA can pick their destinations either way by just signing or not.

Matty T got top value (despite huberdeau turning into a pumpkin) because he was only going to sign

Trouba forced his way to NYR without a NMC.

Hanafin didn’t go to Toronto because he wasn’t going t to sign.

Jones was going to chicago or Dallas.

All of these guys just ended up in places they wanted to be

debrincat (no where near this level) went to Ottawa and they lost the trade the next year

The NMC isn’t some unique thing because it’s pretty rare teams will trade top assets for star players without believing they will sign.

The unique wrinkle here is that Marner will be making 775k.

that’s a massive advantage. People on the internet think that it’s all about aav. It’s not. It’s about money. Rarely do you see players with high AAV have no money attached.

Getting Marner for 1 million this year and say 12x8 (give him a massive contract just to illustrate)

Would actually be 10.7 a year real money over 9 years.

I’m looking at the Tkachuk trade as a good comparable.

I think most would agree that Tkachuk held some additional value as he was coming off a 42G 104P season was only 24 and was going to cost less AAV.

Whoever signs Marner to his next contract will be giving 11.5M until he is 36 years old.

 

[FinnHab]

Mental midget probably wants out of Canada. West coast bound.

 

[FerrisRox]

Habs offer Gally, Armia, and the Jets first

No they don't. Brining Mitch Marner into this young group would be idiotic.

 

[Number8]

They pretty much do though. Take a look
View attachment 865648

They have 20.5 million to add 3 D 2f and a tandem goalie.

Cowan/robertson/grebs could fight for one spot and 1.5 million for a 3rd pair D.


So that’s about 18 million for 2 D. A goalie and a forward.

that’s pretty easily doable.

They absolutely do not need to trade Marner to address D.

I think he wants out

That’s a good analysis and on paper it looks like a reasonable argument.

I think where it hits a snag is not just three D - but a #1, #2, and #3 pairing RD. That’s a big ask.

Not saying it’s impossible but that block of four on the forwards is still just such a drag on everything else. For all the reasons laid out, it’s hard to see an easy out in the short term - other teams will be interested in Marner’s talent but the $ are very big and someone’s going to have to be certain he’s a good fit. Not a slam dunk trade prospect by any means.

 

[zzoo]

I think that Marner helps Matthews more than Matthews helps Marner. In other words, Marner inflates Matthew's stats more than Matthews inflates Marner's stats. What do you think ?

 

[Number8]

26 year old 95 pt selke level winger for 775k. Sure sounds like a mistake.

I guess they could be aiming for marchessault?

Who is the right shot top line winger they are looking at?

I think the team that get’s a 26 year old 95 pt sleek level winger playing for them for 775K will be thrillled.

Sounds like an excellent deal and someone is going to be extremely happy.

Of course, I’m not sure why Toronto just doesn’t keep him in that case. All Treveling has to do is wait until July 2 and he shaves $10M plus off his cap. GM candidate of the year incoming in my book. Easier than most though. Who knew?

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

If anyone thinks Marner has negative value, you're crazy.

Aren't many teams eager to add a one year 11m cap hit to their roster in the offseason. It's the teams with a ton of cap space who wouldn't have what Toronto's looking for (SJ/CHI), or it's the teams with a lot of money tied up in a roster player that they don't necessarily want to keep long term and would want to move for a shorter term contract (Karlsson/Nurse). Most other teams are paying their core guys the high % of the cap and wouldn't want to move them to make him fit.

It's not necessarily a player everyone is eager to take on, a trade will be very hard to make happen unless Marner is gung ho on signing an extension this offseason and that is worked out pre-trade.

 

[Fatass]

I think that Marner helps Matthews more than Matthews helps Marner. In other words, Marner inflates Matthew's stats more than Matthews inflates Marner's stats. What do you think ?

Aren’t MM and AM good friends off the ice too? Can’t see MM waiving to leave. Although Nylander did call him a little cry baby, so there might be some animosity there.

Aren't many teams eager to add a one year 11m cap hit to their roster in the offseason. It's the teams with a ton of cap space who wouldn't have what Toronto's looking for (SJ/CHI), or it's the teams with a lot of money tied up in a roster player that they don't necessarily want to keep long term and would want to move for a shorter term contract (Karlsson/Nurse). Most other teams are paying their core guys the high % of the cap and wouldn't want to move them to make him fit.

It's not necessarily a player everyone is eager to take on, a trade will be very hard to make happen unless Marner is gung ho on signing an extension this offseason and that is worked out pre-trade.

And the Leafs will need to take back salary like Treliving did trading Tkatchuk.

 

[Mitch nylander]

If the Pens resign Crosby.

How about Karlsson for Marner. Pens then flip Marner at the deadline next year if they're out of playoff picture.

Karlsson was one of the worst defensemen in his own end this year. His contract is brutal. And I don't see him making this iteration of the leafs better. If Marner is to be moved, we're looking to acquire cap space, not clog our cap more.

A pens fan offered a much better offer in here all ready from Pittsburgh.

How about something around Kempe + Matt Roy (signed) for Marner?

This makes a ton of sense. Not sure how kings fan would feel, since Kempe performed in the playoffs.

 

[seanlinden]

It depends on the team. For a cap team, its about AAV. For an internal cap team, it'll be about money.

Its a tricky one for the Leafs because there is a real gripe with his game and I also think his regular season impact has slowed down a bit as well, but I'm not sure they're going to get "better" by moving him.

I think the point about his minimal salary comes into play with the idea of a 3rd team retaining.

Take a team like Chicago or Anaheim; who can buy an extra draft pick for something like $400k... and from an aquiring team, the ability to get Marner at under $6m.

 

[Mitch nylander]

Someone posted a Seattle trade which could work but this might be more palatable to leafs.

Gourde + Larsson for Marner.

Helps both teams and everyone is 1 year from UFA like the Matthew Tkachuk deal.

This is a decent proposal. I'd probably want a prospect or a pick as well.

Gourde + Larsson + one of their second tier prospects Rehkopf/Winterton (not Goyette, I question his work ethic | I'm also not asking for Wright or Firkus)

 

[seanlinden]

How about something around Kempe + Matt Roy (signed) for Marner?

Kempe is probably a good starting point in a Marner deal... however Roy is basically already at UFA, so he will decide whether he wants to sign in Toronto.

I would think that the Leafs would want at least 1 more meaningful piece in this deal... Byfield obviously would be a great add.... maybe Turcotte.

 

[CapspaceKiller]

How about something around Kempe + Matt Roy (signed) for Marner?

As a Leafs fan... DONE. Its the exact type of trade the Leafs need to make.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I love that you guys are giving up on Marner, and want to trade him for peanuts.
LMFAO Kempe.

You honestly think Kempe is the answer the the playoffs??



Marner was given no time or space. Because Keefe is a f***ing garbage "systems" coach that's implemented a system that's always been easy to counter in the playoffs.

There is not one series I've ever seen where I could say "Keefe made some major adjustments that opened up space for his star players". or "Keefe won the coaching battle".

Nope. Keefe coaches the Leafs to play one way, but just like Babcock, he gets figured out in the playoffs and loses.


Is it really Marners fault that he's a 181 lbs lightweight not really built to play a grindy defensive game?


You guys think Patrick Kane had to ever play a grindy defensive game?





Haha ok. whatever. Give him away then. Eager to see him on a better coached team.

 

[Legion34]

@Legion34 the 775k factor is definitely real- but that being said it requires threading a needle timing wise. He'd have to be on the Leaf's roster July 1- meaning no 2024 picks in the deal, and it ideally being shook on ready to execute so that both teams can properly execute their UFA plans.

But even with the acquiring team paying the bonus he's only owed 7.25 for this season- still great value on the cash side.

Yes it would take a 2024 pick out of play. But we don’t have 2025 so that’s the cupboard that needs filling.
Also. The leafs under dubas did this a lot. Processed trades after sb.

Brown/zaitsev comes to mind

I love that you guys are giving up on Marner, and want to trade him for peanuts.



Marner was given no time or space. Because Keefe is a f***ing garbage "systems" coach that's implemented a system that's always been easy to counter in the playoffs.

There is not one series I've ever seen where I could say "Keefe made some major adjustments that opened up space for his star players". Keefe won the coaching battle.

Nope. Keefe coaches the Leafs to play One way, but just like Babcock, he gets figured out in the playoffs and loses. Thing is, Montgomery is a Systems coach too. He doesn't adapt either.


Is it really Marners fault that he's a 181 lbs lightweight not really built to play a grindy defensive playoff game?

You guys think Patrick Kane had to ever play a grindy defensive game?




Haha ok. Give him away then.

I don’t think we are “giving him away” I think that this is a bad spot for him. He doesn’t like the hometown thing. He is fighting by with the media. His agent and dad caused bad blood.

I think he wants a new start.
The cap is going up. They have 20 million in space. They don’t need to get rid of him at all.

If he would sign long term I think he could still be great here. It sounds like he wants out

 

[Legion34]

Kempe is probably a good starting point in a Marner deal... however Roy is basically already at UFA, so he will decide whether he wants to sign in Toronto.

I would think that the Leafs would want at least 1 more meaningful piece in this deal... Byfield obviously would be a great add.... maybe Turcotte.

Those 2 could not be farther apart as players. Byfield and turcotte.