Player Discussion Mitch Marner - On Hiatus

[Gabriel426]

Yep, 16.5% last year, it's not that Marner has a bad shot, he is always in the low to mid teens Sh %) it's that he rarely shoots, 158 last year. Matty BTW had 369 (18.7%). If Mitch shot the puck as much as Matty , he would have been around 55 to 61 goals. Not sure why people are debating with you, the metrics do not support their argument.

But his shooting % would change with more shots.
MM could score more or less.
It is like saying a player is on pace for whatever the amount of points after 25games. But it means nothing as there are still 57 games to go.
Just like AM was on pace for 70goals the last few games, but he didn’t get 70 goals.

 

[ToneDog]

That is the point though, if goals scored are the only metric used to measure Marner's value, the same criteria should be used for all players. We all know there is more to McDavid's game than scoring goals, just like there is more to Marner's game than scoring.

32 goals is more than 26, Marner played 69 games and McDavid scored 32 in 76 games. Marner was on a 31 goal pace and McDavid was on a 34.5 goal pace. From a scoring perspective, 3.5 goals is not a lot.

What about the previous, year and their careers? Don't fool yourself, if McDavid sets his mind to scoring 70, bet on it. Wake me up when Mitch breaks his career high in goals.

McD

Marner

 

[notbias]

What about the previous, year and their careers? Don't fool yourself, if McDavid sets his mind to scoring 70, bet on it. Wake me up when Mitch breaks his career high in goals.

McD

View attachment 892932

Marner

View attachment 892933

Why doesn't he score more then? Seems silly to not want to win the rocket every year...

To me it looks like he has a range he generally scores in and one outlier.

 

[Antropovsky]

C'mon now that is disingenuous at best, how many times did Marner give Bert grade A chances and Bert didn't burry them.

Bertuzzi couldn't finish an open net at the start of the year when he played mostly with Marner.

Marner is getting a ton of points, so they are coming from somewhere, I am sure there are players that look the opposite as above.

Also, this makes Domi look amazing if anything because when it was Marner/Matthews he sucked, but Matthews/Domi, he was good.

Okay, so than Bertuzzis ixg should be much higher with Marner than the rest? Since he's blowing numerous wide open nets? Also, Marner is afterall a pure playmaker who shouldn't be judged on his lack of goal scoring (unlike the rest of the core 4) - just another reason one would expect a much higher ixg for Bertuzzi with Marner vs the rest. But wait... yet again much lower with Marner.

Bertuzzi individual expected goals with core 4:
Marner: 2.89
Nylander: 7.74
Matthews: 5.94
Tavares: 7.74

 

[notbias]

Okay, so than Bertuzzis ixg should be much higher with Marner than the rest? Since he's blowing numerous wide open nets? Also, Marner is afterall a pure playmaker who shouldn't be judged on his lack of goal scoring (unlike the rest of the core 4).

Bertuzzi individual expected goals with core 4:
Marner: 2.89
Nylander: 7.74
Matthews: 5.94
Tavares: 7.74

So Tavares and Nylander are studs now and Matthews is no longer a stud?

Just trying to keep up.

Or what is their iXG/60? What was his actual G/60 for each player?

Does every player look like this or are you finding just the ones that do?

Post the site you're using, I'll see if everyone gets worse beside Marner too, or if it is just a select few.

Marner has to get points somewhere, so if it wasn't with Bertuzzi, who was it with?

 

[Hellcat]

But his shooting % would change with more shots.
MM could score more or less.
It is like saying a player is on pace for whatever the amount of points after 25games. But it means nothing as there are still 57 games to go.
Just like AM was on pace for 70goals the last few games, but he didn’t get 70 goals.

Agreed which is why I gave a range if he remained at the same sh% pace, his lowest sh% season was 10.8% assume he took those 369 shots and his sh% dropped to 10.8 that is still 40 goals, assume his Sh% remains the same 16.5% (last years sh%) that is 61 goals. If he shoots more he would score more, simple fact. Last 3 season he has been north of 15% sh%, chances are he'd be damn close to 50 if he shot as much as Matty.

 

[Antropovsky]

So Tavares and Nylander are studs now and Matthews is no longer a stud?

Just trying to keep up.

Or what is their iXG/60? What was his actual G/60 for each player?

Does every player look like this or are you finding just the ones that do?

Post the site you're using, I'll see if everyone gets worse beside Marner too, or if it is just a select few.

Marner has to get points somewhere, so if it wasn't with Bertuzzi, who was it with?

Here's another great stat, individual high danger chances for. If Bertuzzi is blowing wide open shots that Marner gave him, than shouldn't we expect higher number for Marner? Nope very low:

Bertuzzi individual high danger chances for with core 4:
Marner: 13
Nylander: 43
Matthews: 28
Tavares: 46

 

[Gabriel426]

C'mon now that is disingenuous at best, how many times did Marner give Bert grade A chances and Bert didn't burry them.



From what I can gather it's his attitude / douchie face and his goal scoring prowess or lack of in Games 5,6,7. It's just one big illogical word salad TBH, no one has effectively or logically explain why Mitch.

To me, this is my own personal views not what I think why others in the forum think.

To me, his last two playoffs were just horrible, esp this last year. As I don’t like looking at career playoffs stats as metric as what a player done 5-8yrs ago had very little bearing as the player today. Like Bergy was amazing 5-8yrs ago and now he is retired.

Then there is the cap structure of the league.
Panthers is the only team that had TWO 10mil plus players who won the Cup and one of the only two teams that won a round with two 10mil plus players, the other being the Leafs.
That’s an indication that our cap structure of the team just sucks.

Further to that you look at the UFA that were signed this off season, Stamkos and Marchessault makes as much as MM and Kampf or very close. Any GMs would take Stamkos and Marchessault over MM and Kampf.

Lastly, all of our core 5 are betas at best, none of them are alphas. You can win with Alphas playing the role of Betas but not Betas playing the role of Alphas.

Since AM and Willie are signed and they score goals. Goals are more important, since you can score a goal without an assist but you can’t have an assist without someone scoring a goal.
MM and JT are the odd men out.

Agreed which is why I gave a range if he remained at the same sh% pace, was 10.8% assume he too those 369 shots and his sh% dropped to 10.8 that is still 40 goals, assume his Sh% remains the same 16.5% (last years sh%) that is 61 goals. If he shoots more he would score more, simple fact. Last 3 season he has been north of 15% sh%, chances are he'd be damn close to 50 if he shot as much as Matty.

Going to agree and disagree on that.
Bc MM shot is weak compare to AM

 

[notbias]

Here's another great stat, individual high danger chances for. If Bertuzzi is blowing wide open shots that Marner gave him, than shouldn't we expect higher number for Marner? Nope very low:

Bertuzzi individual high danger chances for with core 4:
Marner: 13
Nylander: 43
Matthews: 28
Tavares: 46

Send the site... I want to see if it is the same for every player or if Bertuzzi was chosen for a reason.

 

[Hellcat]

What about the previous, year and their careers? Don't fool yourself, if McDavid sets his mind to scoring 70, bet on it. Wake me up when Mitch breaks his career high in goals.

McD

View attachment 892932

Marner

View attachment 892933

It's often a matter of how many shots a skilled player takes, that season McDavid took 352 SOG, he's never had north of 315 and only one other season north of 275 SOG, Mitch has never had a season north of 235 SOG. In no way am I saying Mitch = Connor, Connor was used as an illustration that there is more to a game breaker than just goal scoring. When evaluating a player you have to assess the sum of the parts (good and bad) not just one aspect of their game. I'm pretty sure in a contract year, if he does not sign before the season begins, Mitch is going to be shooting the stars out, because goals are so easy to quantify their value and because he has the ability to shoot at a high success rate.

To me, this is my own personal views not what I think why others in the forum think.

To me, his last two playoffs were just horrible, esp this last year. As I don’t like looking at career playoffs stats as metric as what a player done 5-8yrs ago had very little bearing as the player today. Like Bergy was amazing 5-8yrs ago and now he is retired.

Then there is the cap structure of the league.
Panthers is the only team that had TWO 10mil plus players who won the Cup and one of the only two teams that won a round with two 10mil plus players, the other being the Leafs.
That’s an indication that our cap structure of the team just sucks.

Further to that you look at the UFA that were signed this off season, Stamkos and Marchessault makes as much as MM and Kampf or very close. Any GMs would take Stamkos and Marchessault over MM and Kampf.

Lastly, all of our core 5 are betas at best, none of them are alphas. You can win with Alphas playing the role of Betas but not Betas playing the role of Alphas.

Since AM and Willie are signed and they score goals. Goals are more important, since you can score a goal without an assist but you can’t have an assist without someone scoring a goal.
MM and JT are the odd men out.


Going to agree and disagree on that.
Bc MM shot is weak compare to AM

Everyone's shot is weak compared to AM

 

[Antropovsky]

Send the site... I want to see if it is the same for every player or if Bertuzzi was chosen for a reason.

Natural stat trick

 

[Hellcat]

Why doesn't he score more then? Seems silly to not want to win the rocket every year...

To me it looks like he has a range he generally scores in and one outlier.

Might be the style of game Knolgbauch (sp?) wanted to play, to score you often have to put yourself in a poor defensive position. the coach may have wanted to pritorize defence and structure?

 

[Gabriel426]

It's often a matter of how many shots a skilled player takes, that season McDavid took 352 SOG, he's never had north of 315 and only one other season north of 275 SOG, Mitch has never had a season north of 235 SOG. In no way am I saying Mitch = Connor, Connor was used as an illustration that there is more to a game breaker than just goal scoring. When evaluating a player you have to assess the sum of the parts (good and bad) not just one aspect of their game. I'm pretty sure in a contract year, if he does not sign before the season begins, Mitch is going to be shooting the stars out, because goals are so easy to quantify their value and because he has the ability to shoot at a high success rate.



Everyone's shot is weak compared to AM

That’s why nobody score at his pace, lol.

 

[Antropovsky]

To me, this is my own personal views not what I think why others in the forum think.

To me, his last two playoffs were just horrible, esp this last year. As I don’t like looking at career playoffs stats as metric as what a player done 5-8yrs ago had very little bearing as the player today. Like Bergy was amazing 5-8yrs ago and now he is retired.

Then there is the cap structure of the league.
Panthers is the only team that had TWO 10mil plus players who won the Cup and one of the only two teams that won a round with two 10mil plus players, the other being the Leafs.
That’s an indication that our cap structure of the team just sucks.

Further to that you look at the UFA that were signed this off season, Stamkos and Marchessault makes as much as MM and Kampf or very close. Any GMs would take Stamkos and Marchessault over MM and Kampf.

Lastly, all of our core 5 are betas at best, none of them are alphas. You can win with Alphas playing the role of Betas but not Betas playing the role of Alphas.

Since AM and Willie are signed and they score goals. Goals are more important, since you can score a goal without an assist but you can’t have an assist without someone scoring a goal.
MM and JT are the odd men out.


Going to agree and disagree on that.
Bc MM shot is weak compare to AM

Matthews is an Alpha. But surrounded by players who skate away from battles. He excelled with two players who skate into battle.

This team would've been deadly with Moore, Hyman, Bertuzzi, Kadri, Domi, Matthews, Tavares. We had them, but Dubas tried to create the Harlem Globetrotters on ice.

To me, this is my own personal views not what I think why others in the forum think.

To me, his last two playoffs were just horrible, esp this last year. As I don’t like looking at career playoffs stats as metric as what a player done 5-8yrs ago had very little bearing as the player today. Like Bergy was amazing 5-8yrs ago and now he is retired.

Then there is the cap structure of the league.
Panthers is the only team that had TWO 10mil plus players who won the Cup and one of the only two teams that won a round with two 10mil plus players, the other being the Leafs.
That’s an indication that our cap structure of the team just sucks.

Further to that you look at the UFA that were signed this off season, Stamkos and Marchessault makes as much as MM and Kampf or very close. Any GMs would take Stamkos and Marchessault over MM and Kampf.

Lastly, all of our core 5 are betas at best, none of them are alphas. You can win with Alphas playing the role of Betas but not Betas playing the role of Alphas.

Since AM and Willie are signed and they score goals. Goals are more important, since you can score a goal without an assist but you can’t have an assist without someone scoring a goal.
MM and JT are the odd men out.


Going to agree and disagree on that.
Bc MM shot is weak compare to AM

Matthews is an Alpha. But surrounded by players who skate away from battles. He excelled with two players who skate into battle.

This team would've been deadly with Moore, Hyman, Bertuzzi, Kadri, Domi, Matthews, Tavares. We had them, but Dubas tried to create thr Harlem Globetrotters on ice.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Said every GM in the league including his current one.

Therein lies the problem.

In fact even at his current price point there are only 11 players in the entire NHL that make more, and 3 are his teammates.

My suggestion to resolve this dilemma, is a sign and trade by Toronto first, that also forces them to retain $ and cap on the deal in order to make him palatable around the league in trade.

Leafs sign Marner to an 8 X $12.0 mil $96 mil deal and are forced to retain 25% (in order to find a taker) making him a 8 year @ $9 mil AAV player to his new team. Leafs have a 8 year X $3 mil dead cap space.

Now I know that sounds ugly from a Leafs POV, but the only other option which might be better is simply let him walk at seasons end and then use the $10.9 mil free cap space.

Pick your poison. !!!

If they re-sign him under any circumstances they are as dumb as stumps.

Letting him go for nothing is far better than retaining $3 million for 8 years.

Put down the bong.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Reinhart has been on a crap Buffalo team most of his career, while Marner has been playing with elite players on the Leafs...but we saw what Reinhart has done with a good team, and even after, he's humble and realistic enough to know what a reasonable salary is when building a winning culture and a winning team. When the #1 goal is chasing money, no amount of money is really enough.

What is the playoff accomplishment of that LW and how many Cups had he won?

Do you honestly think Marner deserves $12.5 million per on a new deal? Why exactly does he think he deserves that kind of money? He's delusional.

Because he works for Quartexx Management's Social Media Contractor Marner Defense Team™ Rocket Security, that's way.

He's so obvious. It'll be even more obvious when this post gets deleted by the mods. Money talks.

 

[francis246]

Shooting the MESSenger is very lame. The Marner apologists have nothing. So they attack the messenger.

Sad to say it looks like no team wants Marner. They will get him for cheap when he implodes this year.

He doesn't have the fortitude to play for a team that doesnt want him. He knows the team isnt interested.
EVERYONE knows it.

Marner is dead wrong if he thinks he can play through this.

No ones attacking mess or any of you who want Marner traded. Many clear minded people understand, ultimately it’s out of our control. Whether we agree trading him is beneficial or keeping him is better, we all understand we don’t influence the move. There’s a few of you who honestly believe that the more you post the more likely a trade is gonna happen as if your posts are magically going to make it happen.

The rest of us know and understand any decision will be on Marner and the leafs timeline not ours, so we aren’t stressing about something we can’t control.

How do you know that?

He doesn’t. Just making shit up as he goes.

 

[francis246]

I signed up to this board MANY years ago, took a long hiatus in the middle... but man, the difference between now and then is INCREDIBLE! Like, WOW!

From the early 2000’s to now, this board has gone to complete shit. Back then you could have reasonable discussions. Now it’s a mob mentality. If you’re not on board with what the mob wants, you’re a dumb hockey fan or a GM lover!

 

[Notsince67]

It's a reflection that Marner has a weak shot and has an issue scoring goals...like you know, in the playoffs? If he had a great shot, he would score more goalies and Matthews would get more assists, which would definitely help the team be more successful in the playoffs.

He relies on other players to score goals to boost his stats, while being one of the most expensive wingers in the league, and now wants a big raise when he's already overpaid...Sam Reinhart's new contract is $2 million lower on average than Marner's current contract...he wants to be paid 50% more than Reinhart's deal on his new contract. How do you win with a player like that? He's only in it for himself, not for team success, not anyone else.

If you are trying to talk up a weak shot with a pretty great shooting percentage, you only look idiotic. Goals for Marner is a function of the fewer shots he attempts. Let not try to create a dumb dumb reality.

 

[Notsince67]

But his shooting % would change with more shots.
MM could score more or less.
It is like saying a player is on pace for whatever the amount of points after 25games. But it means nothing as there are still 57 games to go.
Just like AM was on pace for 70goals the last few games, but he didn’t get 70 goals.

I don't understand this and how it explains how Marner is a weak shot.

 

[Antropovsky]

From the early 2000’s to now, this board has gone to complete shit. Back then you could have reasonable discussions. Now it’s a mob mentality. If you’re not on board with what the mob wants, you’re a dumb hockey fan or a GM lover!

Agrees, No bigger mob mentality than the Marner appreciation thread.

Anybody who said anything critical of Marner in that thread were attacked by a select small group of posters. Yes... let me repeat, a Marner Appreciation only thread..... look around the media right now and see how absolutely absurd that is. Two years in a row this board voted about 70% in favor of moving him! Yet...an Appreciation Thread only thread.


The mods rightfully determined that thread was ridiculous, shut it down, and created this one.

 

[ULF_55]

a lot of mind reading went into that post


diju mean poisson? of so I'll try the halibut

Wrong team ... Halibut would be Canucks ... Tofino ... very, very nice fish.

 

[francis246]

Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.

You were part of quite possibly the biggest mob mentality this message board has ever seen, being a main contributor to the "Marner Appreciation" Thread. Anybody who said anything critical of Marner in that thread were attacked by a select small group of posters. Yes... let me repeat, a Marner Appreciation only thread..... look around the media right now and see how absolutely absurd that is. Two years in a row this board voted about 70% in favor of moving him! Yet...an Appreciation Thread only thread.


The mods rightfully determined that thread was ridiculous, shut it down, and created this one.

I have never attacked anyone cause of Marner. As I’ve always stated, I’ve never had a problem with anyone not liking Marner. My stance has always been that the personal attacks on Marner himself were and continue to be very dumb.

The only thread where I legit got out of hand in and threw a ton of insults and personal attacks was the Liljegren thread years ago. I already apologized for that and moved on.

 

[Antropovsky]

I have never attacked anyone cause of Marner. As I’ve always stated, I’ve never had a problem with anyone not liking Marner. My stance has always been that the personal attacks on Marner himself were and continue to be very dumb.

The only thread where I legit got out of hand in and threw a ton of insults and personal attacks was the Liljegren thread years ago. I already apologized for that and moved on.

Oops I apologize mistakened you for a different poster.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Marner is an elite paid player. According to NHL Edge, which tracks shot speed and skating speed. Marner is below 50% in all categories of both skating and shot speed.

This is why he will never be a successful playoff performer...coupled with his severe lack of size/strength and lack of grit and fear of dirty areas.

It just doesn't add up. His playoff struggles make alot of sense given his skillset.

Yes, I think the speed of a shot is a better indicator of how hard it is, than how many times it crosses the goal line.