Player Discussion Mitch Marner - On Hiatus

[GoonieFace]

You've made you mind up and that's it I guess.

Crazy how Hyman only scored 1 point against the Habs with the Leafs eh? You ever go back and watch him blow all those breakaways, 2 on 1s and prime chances over and over again?

Marners fault?

He literally has more playoff goals in one playoff season than Marner has in 8.

Marner is a classic playoff choker. Yeah my minds made up; I tried to think he would change, but once again he layed an egg

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

I would say coaching is a factor, not to blame and there’s a difference.

Keefe factors in because if Marner is playing bad why is Marner not being benched or demoted? I don’t think anyone would have an issue with that besides the player. Keefe knew the way these guys played wasn’t going to win but he didn’t do anything to force the issue, just kept rolling them out there. So yes Keefe has a part in it. If you want your guys to play North/South send a message, “if you don’t play this way, you don’t get to play on the PP or you’re on the third line until you do”

There was no accountability and that’s why Marner still plays the way he has because he knows he going right back out there.

Coaching is absolutely a factor. Keefe enabled them to be the way they are. Fancy Mitch showed up in the Keefe years and many times gave away the puck in bad spots because he was trying to make his play look more difficult than it should have been. I honestly believe that Berube would tear a strip off of any player that makes a dumb needless turnover in a bad spot when a simple play would have been the correct thing to do. We have not had that for 5yrs and Mitch and JT were at the top of the list in doing stupid things with the puck because there was almost zero accountability with this "group".

 

[Zybalto]

LOL. But what were Hyman's "scoring chance assist" fake stats? Those are the ones that REALLY matter....

Not great really in that series. Even the one goal he scored was a scoring error on a Marner goal. I think Hyman and Matthews had the most shots/scoring chances of any players in the first round that year. Why on earth didn't they score most goals? The Jets couldnt do a thing. Mark stone laid an egg against the Habs too for some reason. 0 points in 6 games somehow. I don't know why so many stars had trouble scoring against that Habs team. Did they catch a Marner-it's? Was just crazy. Must have been a reason.

Hey, I listed straight goal differential earlier but I guess that's a fake sat too? Is anything that doesn't agree with you worldview fake as well.

The reason Marner has such a high number there is because he has arguably been the best defensive winger in the playoffs the last while (especially considering his usage) this is usually lost on the folks who scream SHOOT! SHOOT! at the games and are currently trying to get the wave going every 5 minutes during jays games.

Marner works his tail off for the team and sn't the problem you think he is.

Marner = the focus of all problems

Running the worst goaltending of any top 10 team 4 years in a row = let's not talk about it.

I don't get this math....

 

[Stephen]

He literally has more playoff goals in one playoff season than Marner has in 8.

Marner is a classic playoff choker. Yeah my minds made up; I tried to think he would change, but once again he layed an egg

Wyatt Johnston was in juniors 24 months ago he now has more career playoff goals than Mitch at 14 to 11.

 

[socko]

As overrated as I think Mitch is, I think he's likely going to be worse if he tries to play a north/south Berube game. That will be amusing for about 24 hours before it becomes annoying. If he really wanted to try it, he needs to hit the weight room like today. But you're kidding yourself if you think you can makeover his game to that degree.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Mitch needs to go to a team with no state tax. He can sign for less and take home more. Nobody is paying him $100m or making him the highest paid player on the team unless the Leafs retain $2-3 m per year IMO and that is unlikely.

I think you're 100% correct on a state without tax....it's going to be the excuse he uses to himself to explain why nobody gave him 100M as a UFA. Hopefully having Berube as a head coach will make him nervous about not waiving if there is the potential of him not getting the minutes and PP time.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Not great really in that series. Even the one goal he scored was a scoring error on a Marner goal. I think Hyman and Matthews had the most shots/scoring chances of any players in the first round that year. Why on earth didn't they score most goals? The Jets couldnt do a thing. Mark stone laid an egg against the Habs too for some reason. 0 points in 6 games somehow. I don't know why so many stars had trouble scoring against that Habs team. Did they catch a Marner-it's? Was just crazy. Must have been a reason.

Hey, I listed straight goal differential earlier but I guess that's a fake sat too? Is anything that doesn't agree with you worldview fake as well.

The reason Marner has such a high number there is because he has arguably been the best defensive winger in the playoffs the last while (especially considering his usage) this is usually lost on the folks who scream SHOOT! SHOOT! at the games and are currently trying to get the wave going every 5 minutes during jays games.

Marner works his tail off for the team and sn't the problem you think he is.

Marner = the focus of all problems

Running the worst goaltending of any top 10 team 4 years in a row = let's not talk about it.

I don't get this math....

It's pretty simple. Advanced stats are garbage. Marner commands $11 million of cap space, and wants a raise, yet in the playoffs he "delivers" in REAL STATS less than a $5.5 million player.

Happy to help you out.

Wyatt Johnston was in juniors 24 months ago he now has more career playoff goals than Mitch at 14 to 11.

WHOOPS! How inconvenient for advanced stats Marner lovers like the Z-man....

 

[Stephen]

As overrated as I think Mitch is, I think he's likely going to be worse if he tries to play a north/south Berube game. That will be amusing for about 24 hours before it becomes annoying. If he really wanted to try it, he needs to hit the weight room like today. But you're kidding yourself if you think you can makeover his game to that degree.

Doesn't seem like Marner that much time building up physically over the years. Remarkable how he looks exactly the same as a rookie as does today when getting muscled out of the playoffs is a recurring theme.

 

[Antropovsky]

Yesh, but does Zito know how to PowerPoint and Excel-talk about WOWY and XGF and GTFO and STFU and OMFG and wear fake glasses?

Come on…..

Yup... I was watching a broadcast who was talking about the Zito hire and he's a very big advanced stats nerd too. I'm sure much more than Dubas.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

He didn’t take money it was given to him.

Sure it was technically given to him....after he ran around the league trying to get offersheets and then staying out of camp until he signed the deal...but other than those things...yes...he was given the money by Dubas.

 

[GoonieFace]

Doesn't seem like Marner that much time building up physically over the years. Remarkable how he looks exactly the same as a rookie as does today when getting muscled out of the playoffs is a recurring theme.

I met him earlier this year and I was shocked how puny he really is. He’s listed at 180lbs, but there is no way he even weighs that.

 

[Stephen]

Yup... I was watching a broadcast who was talking about the Zito hire and he's a very big advanced stats nerd too. I'm sure much more than Dubas.

I'd say Dubas sniffed around some hidden gems in his time that might suggest he was onto the money puck trail to some degree but also kind of suspect how so many of his acquisitions went back to his Soo days, as if he had a Memorial Cup juggernaut that could supply an NHL team with all it's needs.

 

[Stephen]

I met him earlier this year and I was shocked how puny he really is. He’s listed at 180lbs, but there is no way he even weighs that.

I have a couple of friends who mentioned the same. When you look at the way Matthews and Nylander have bulked up over the years, it's like what happened with the training program there.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Agreed we need a top goalie but how can you blame a guy who gives up one goal in regulation in game #7 when you have half your cap invested in 4 forwards? This team virtually needs a SO to win a game #7.

Apparently we need a goalie that is going to post 16 shutouts for us to win. That would be the only way we could win with this anemic offense of ours scoring 2 or less 15 games in a row. It's the magic goaltending store that we have to go to this summer....

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Oilers avg hits per game this playoffs 32, Dallas 27, Panthers 43, Rangers 34, and our beloved Leafs who were supposedly playing shinny averaged 50 hits per game.

The number of hits per series goes down as the playoffs progress....it becomes a war of attrition after the 2nd rd. It was never just the hits we were missing previously...it was the mentality. I love the way FLA plays...I like that they are nasty and intimidate other teams without having to have a Reaves on their team. That is an actual "Team tough" group of players. I want that.

 

[Stephen]

Oilers avg hits per game this playoffs 32, Dallas 27, Panthers 43, Rangers 34, and our beloved Leafs who were supposedly playing shinny averaged 50 hits per game.

There seem to be times when physical play spikes in the playoffs. The first round, and specifically Game 1 and Game 3 when both teams are opening to the home crowd and setting the tone. Things tend to settle down, and the deeper a series or the playoffs go, the game kind of turns into a bit of a volleyball match, back and forth, etc.* where teams aren't taking risks and defensive details are dialed up.

*(It was interesting that Kovalev was talking about how much the puck is in the air in the playoffs recently, but that's another story.)

Hitting should also be used strategically. Heavy forechecking to loosen pucks but also to put wear and tear and damage on opposition D, cutting off clean transitions, turning dump ins into weapons, puck retrievals into nightmares, and change momentum. It's not about volume necessarily either.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

I guess my reply should have been directed to the guy that said we can’t be playing shinny in the playoffs. lol! Well the remaining teams are doing fine carrying on with their regular season style. I think only the Leafs get hoodwinked into the “you better change the way you play in the playoffs”.

Regardless I do agree with, whatever way you play in October/ March better be the same way you play in the playoffs.

Especially if the way you played during the regular season was a winning formula, don’t tamper with it.

You do realize people wanted the team to change the way they play in the playoffs because they kept losing trying to play the way they did in the regular season right? It wasn't like we were winning series, after series, by playing loosey goosey hockey and then fans started clamoring for more hits. We just wanted to have these guys win...whatever it took to do that...that might be hitting more or better defense....it wasn't the old farts just wanting old time hockey again. There was a reason for the requested change in style.

 

[Stephen]

Coaching is absolutely a factor. Keefe enabled them to be the way they are. Fancy Mitch showed up in the Keefe years and many times gave away the puck in bad spots because he was trying to make his play look more difficult than it should have been. I honestly believe that Berube would tear a strip off of any player that makes a dumb needless turnover in a bad spot when a simple play would have been the correct thing to do. We have not had that for 5yrs and Mitch and JT were at the top of the list in doing stupid things with the puck because there was almost zero accountability with this "group".

Yep.

The gold standard here is to move the puck quickly, efficiently, correctly to where it needs to go, not this mid tempo skills festival where you seem to forget where the net is.

 

[Stephen]

I guess my reply should have been directed to the guy that said we can’t be playing shinny in the playoffs. lol! Well the remaining teams are doing fine carrying on with their regular season style. I think only the Leafs get hoodwinked into the “you better change the way you play in the playoffs”.

Regardless I do agree with, whatever way you play in October/ March better be the same way you play in the playoffs.

Especially if the way you played during the regular season was a winning formula, don’t tamper with it.

In theoretical terms I agree with you. If the Leafs played their mid tempo, skill heavy, east-west possession hockey in the heat of the playoffs and dictated that play style to the opposition, that would be the ultimate signifier of success. You dictate the game style, the other team gets dragged into it. We win a cup and it looks like a November regular season game.

The problem is no team has that overwhelming skill advantage in this cap league to be able to play that way without the opposition doing something about it. We don't have Yzerman and Shanahan, and the Russian 5, and Lidstrom like in the pre-cap days. We have a lot of cheap parts. The opposition can take away your time, your space, your stars and suddenly the Leafs have to play someone else's game. Every time.

The coming to Jesus moment is this team can't play that regular season style in the playoffs. So use the 82 games thoughtfully and get with the program.

 

[Zybalto]

It's pretty simple. Advanced stats are garbage. Marner commands $11 million of cap space, and wants a raise, yet in the playoffs he "delivers" in REAL STATS less than a $5.5 million player.

Happy to help you out.


WHOOPS! How inconvenient for advanced stats Marner lovers like the Z-man....

Theres nothing "advanced" about goal differential. Its literally goals scored for and against while on the ice.

Are you interested only in points then?

Despite the crazy bad Leafs PP, Marner ranks 12th for points per game among forwards the last 3 seasons while being one of the best defensive forwards in the playoffs. Stretching out his +/- to a full season over this time would have him at a +36. That would tie for the league lead among all forwards this regular season. We have a far better defensive Adam Oates and you want to rip on him for not scoring goals? ......and this is more important than running garbage goaltending in the playoffs?

ALL the stats say Marner has been one of the better players on the team although you cant fault the team too badly this season when Matthews and Nylander are out there playing injured and the starter gets pulled again while Marner gets buried in dzone starts against the other teams best players and still ends up a + for the series.

I'm not a Marner "lover" either as I dont see this as a tribal thing of that sort. The guy has been one of the positives on the team and the team looks worse when he's not in the lineup.

Marner one ice 5v5 the last 3 years in the playoffs:
20 goals for, 11 against while facing top competition.
(198 goals for, 130 against during the regular seasons)


Jarnkrok, Lafferty, Kampf, O'Reilly, Engvall, Mikheyev, Dewar, Reaves, Acciari, Blackwell, Aston-Reese, Holmberg, Robertson, Gregor, Simmonds combined:

35 goals for, 60 against while almost all playing sheltered minutes.
(455 goals for, 448 against during the regular seasons)

Marner's fault too I guess?

Poor goaltending, brutal 3rd and 4th line play combined with elite goaltending at the other end would spell doom for any team....and its not like those bottom 6ers were getting run over in the regular season. They just couldnt produce the way they could in the regular season for some reason. Actually fell off hard in every area.

 

[Gabriel426]

Just looking at outcomes, Marner's 65% 5v5 goal differential in the playoffs is near the top of all players in hockey the last 3 years. Looking at the differential between that number and average of the rest of the team, he has the biggest spread of anyone in the league. His value as a big minute 2 way player is almost unmatched 5v5.

Forwards with at least 350 minutes played and 15+ minutes a game the last 3 years:

Goal differential:
1. Marner: 64.52
2. McDavid: 62.00
3. MacKinnon: 61.64
4. Verhaghe: 60.81
5. Hyman: 60.76

Goal differential relative teammates:
1. Marner: +22.58
2. McDavid: +21.13
3. Matthews: +15.96
4. Hyman: +15.91
5. Kucherov: +14.43


Thats just going by the outcomes of course. Trying to avoid any fancy analytics and just list outcomes here. Some real anti-fancy stats folks around. Statitically the best and most valuable big minute players the last 3 years for 2 way outcomes 5v5.

The PP is a different story of course but I'm just highlighting this to show the fact that if Marner is so high up for these outcomes, shouldnt there be a ton of bigger problems on the opposite end of this spectrum? Guys that are getting absolutely caved in 5v5?



Vas may be past it now (although the Bolts poor D play certainly didnt help) and anyone who watched those other 2 series knows Swayman and Shesterkin were their teams only hope as the Panthers have played incredible hockey while having a solid Bobrovsky in net too. I was cheering for Shesterkin to finally get a ring but he's breaking his back carrying that Ranger team. Swayman and Shesterkin exit the playoffs as the 2 best keepers of the playoffs IMO. (.933 an .926 respectfully and earned those numbers too with massive performances) From what we saw of Woll, if we had him from the start, we beat Boston in 5 or 6 IMO. (provided he stays healthy too of course) The good news is that I dont think we will be seeing Samsonov in a Leafs uni again.

Despite Swayman and Sher being Godly, Panthers beat both of them and didn’t get out goalied.
I guess teams that makes the Finals end up beating top goalies.

Not great really in that series. Even the one goal he scored was a scoring error on a Marner goal. I think Hyman and Matthews had the most shots/scoring chances of any players in the first round that year. Why on earth didn't they score most goals? The Jets couldnt do a thing. Mark stone laid an egg against the Habs too for some reason. 0 points in 6 games somehow. I don't know why so many stars had trouble scoring against that Habs team. Did they catch a Marner-it's? Was just crazy. Must have been a reason.

Hey, I listed straight goal differential earlier but I guess that's a fake sat too? Is anything that doesn't agree with you worldview fake as well.

The reason Marner has such a high number there is because he has arguably been the best defensive winger in the playoffs the last while (especially considering his usage) this is usually lost on the folks who scream SHOOT! SHOOT! at the games and are currently trying to get the wave going every 5 minutes during jays games.

Marner works his tail off for the team and sn't the problem you think he is.

Marner = the focus of all problems

Running the worst goaltending of any top 10 team 4 years in a row = let's not talk about it.

I don't get this math....

Or despite your fancy stats, MM still can’t help the Leafs win. Maybe it is time to change things up. Set MM free to play on another team in order for him to live up his full potential.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Theres nothing "advanced" about goal differential. Its literally goals scored for and against while on the ice.

Are you interested only in points then?

Despite the crazy bad Leafs PP, Marner ranks 12th for points per game among forwards the last 3 seasons while being one of the best defensive forwards in the playoffs. Stretching out his +/- to a full season over this time would have him at a +36. That would tie for the league lead among all forwards this regular season. We have a far better defensive Adam Oates and you want to rip on him for not scoring goals? ......and this is more important than running garbage goaltending in the playoffs?

ALL the stats say Marner has been one of the better players on the team although you cant fault the team too badly this season when Matthews and Nylander are out there playing injured and the starter gets pulled again while Marner gets buried in dzone starts against the other teams best players and still ends up a + for the series.

I'm not a Marner "lover" either as I dont see this as a tribal thing of that sort. The guy has been one of the positives on the team and the team looks worse when he's not in the lineup.

Marner one ice 5v5 the last 3 years in the playoffs:
20 goals for, 11 against while facing top competition.
(198 goals for, 130 against during the regular seasons)


Jarnkrok, Lafferty, Kampf, O'Reilly, Engvall, Mikheyev, Dewar, Reaves, Acciari, Blackwell, Aston-Reese, Holmberg, Robertson, Gregor, Simmonds combined:

35 goals for, 60 against while almost all playing sheltered minutes.
(455 goals for, 448 against during the regular seasons)

Marner's fault too I guess?

Poor goaltending, brutal 3rd and 4th line play combined with elite goaltending at the other end would spell doom for any team....and its not like those bottom 6ers were getting run over in the regular season. They just couldnt produce the way they could in the regular season for some reason. Actually fell off hard in every area.

LOL. You just don't get it, do you? Too much cap allocated to a playoff non performer = filler players all around. And I'm sure Marner was responsible for this alleged superior "goal differential" all by his little self, right.

Please, change the argument again, so I can continue to laugh.

 

[Zybalto]

Despite Swayman and Sher being Godly, Panthers beat both of them and didn’t get out goalied.
I guess teams that makes the Finals end up beating top goalies.

The Panthers actually have a real goalie themselves though. A guy whose won 2 Vezinas and gone on runs. Campbell flamed out almost the instant he left the Leafs and is a has been and our own "starting goalie" the last 2 years has had to be sent to the AHL and been pulled the last 2 series in a row.

There were a few of us warning about this early and here we are.

LOL. You just don't get it, do you? Too much cap allocated to a playoff non performer = filler players all around. And I'm sure Marner was responsible for this alleged superior "goal differential" all by his little self, right.

Please, change the argument again, so I can continue to laugh.

Keep laughing all you want. It's still gonna look like an 80 IQ take.

How much overpaid do you think he is? 12th in PPG among forwards and elite defensively over the last 3 seasons.

Gimmie a number.

It still wouldnt compare to running terrible goaltending in the playoffs against the top division for goaltending again.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

The Panthers actually have a real goalie themselves though. A guy whose won 2 Vezinas and gone on runs. Campbell flamed out almost the instant he left the Leafs and is a has been and our own "starting goalie" the last 2 years has had to be sent to the AHL and been pulled the last 2 series in a row.

There were a few of us warning about this early and here we are.



Keep laughing all you want. It's still gonna look like an 80 IQ take.

How much overpaid do you think he is? 12th in PPG among forwards and elite defensively over the last 3 seasons.

Gimmie a number.

It still wouldnt compare to running terrible goaltending in the playoffs against the top division for goaltending again.

Now do points scored in the playoffs vs. dollar of salary earned. You just can't keep the goalposts in place can you?

 

[Gary Nylund]

One of the best Leafs playoff efforts I've ever seen was Game 4 vs Florida on the verge of a sweep. On the verge of humifaction, they just put it all together and it was full 60 minutes of playoff hockey as a clinic.

So if that team and its core players were carrying over learning what it takes to win in the playoffs, have some muscle memory of it, it just makes their effort in Game 1, 3, 4 vs Boston so much more pathetic and Game 5, 6, 7 so much more inexplicable.

Are these guys playing to win a series and pursue a championship, or just to save face on the verge of humiliation?

Every now and then these show that when they're at their best, they can play the game as well as anyone. Unfortunately that only happens for a game here and a game there and just as often they play absolute stinkers, for example game 3 against Florida

What does an intense Marner, Nylander, Matthew, Tavares or Rielly even look like ?

Now that's one hell of a question!

I am convinced that a team can't just "turn it on" for playoffs. It needs to be part of your everyday habbit and then in playoff you just do the same thing but with more intensity.

Leafs' lackluster starts especially their forwards is an indication that they rely too much on skill and then going gets tough they fold like a cheap tent because they can't just "turn it on" to play the right way and "turn it off" to get rid of the stupid

Agree 100%!

Apparently we need a goalie that is going to post 16 shutouts for us to win. That would be the only way we could win with this anemic offense of ours scoring 2 or less 15 games in a row. It's the magic goaltending store that we have to go to this summer....

Well said. The bolded has been our biggest issue by far, it's incredible that we're paying these star forwards half the cap and their specialty seems to making opposing goalies look world class.