50/50 he’s back next year, anyone making definitive statements isn’t computing the complexities here. It isn’t an easy proposition for obvious reasons, but for sure it could happen.
I think you're right that it's 50/50 he's back next year, but I think the complexities are actually very simple.
It's whether Leafs management have any balls whatsoever.
"There just wasn't a trade option that made us a better team" - no balls
"We like what Marner brings, he's a huge part of this group and both he and the team think he can lead us to a cup" - no balls
"Waiving the NTC was never something Mitch considered, he loves playing for this team and this city" - NO BALLS
They will cover whatever they do in weasel words and spin to sell Marner staying as the best course of action. But the simple reality is that if they don't move him it's because everyone involved is afraid of change. Afraid that Marner playing well somewhere else will make them look stupid. Afraid that trading Marner will be a step back before it's two steps forward and that step back will cost them their jobs. Afraid that Marner will never rehabilitate his image in front of Leafs fans. Sorry Shanny, caving in to your fear means you don't have any guts and that's exactly what we're going after Marner for.
If they do trade him, it's because they've got the guts to take a risk. Sometimes you need to retreat and regroup before you counter-attack. Sometimes you have to do the right thing when you're afraid and in doubt. That's what courage is. This team so obviously needs the change, this team so obviously revolves around Marner, rather than him just being one of our key players, this team so obviously cannot continue as we have. So please, Treliving, Shanahan, Pelley, whoever the heck is at the top of the decision making pile for this, give your balls a tug and pick up the phone.
"Mitch, please provide a list of teams you'll accept a trade to"
"John, you're not the captain next year. We're giving it to Auston."
Mitch can flex his NTC and exercise his collectively bargained for rights to remain a Leaf if he wishes. In that case, have the guts to tell the public that he refused, strip the A from him, and publicly declare that the team will not be negotiating a new contract with him. Mitch does not run this team, Mitch is leaving whether it's sooner or later, Mitch can succeed or fail elsewhere on his own merits and we do not give a shit.