Short term deals that bring you to the last year of RFA status were not nearly as common 7-10 years ago but not non-existent (Vasilevskiy, JT. Miller, Johansen, Nelson, Kadri, Palmieri, Buchnevich, Copp, S. Reinhart, Fiala, Montour, Kempe, Zacha)
Nelson is a good example for you. Signed a contract, backloaded, filed for arbitration, signed a one year deal, poised to become a UFA and then signed a 6 year deal. Biggest difference is that Nelson's QO was 3.5M and Tkachuk is 9M, but sure I'll give you this one. Unfortunately it's the only one really.
Kadri never had a contract that brought him within 1 year of UFA. The contract he's on had 2 RFA years.
Palmieri never had a contract that brought him within 1 year of UFA. His past contract had 2 RFA years.
So we don'[t need to discuss them. But you're sure these other players are the ones you want to compare Tkachuk with?
Johansen signed a contract that left one year of RFA like Tkachuk. And before Johansen finished that contract with Columbus he was traded.
JT Miller filed for arbitration, so a one or two year deal was going to be selected but they agreed to a two year deal before then. And before Miller finished that contract with the Rangers he was traded.
Buchnevich filed for arbitration, so a one or two year deal was going to be selected but they agreed to a two year deal before then. And before Buchnevich signed his next contract with the Rangers he was traded.
Mountour filed for arbitration, so a one or two year deal was going to be selected but they agreed to a two year deal before then. And before Mountour signed his next contract with the Ducks he was traded.
Reinhart filed for arbitration, so a one or two year deal was going to be selected but they agreed to a one year deal before then. And before Reinhart signed his next contract with the Sabres he was traded.
Like I'm not sure why you would use those players as an example when they are the antithesis to your position. You could include Josh Anderson and Trouba as well I guess? Just make sure you get all the unhappy players who wanted out lol. If anything you're showing that a player who doesn't sign the typical 2 year bridge deal (or one that brings him 2+ years from UFA), is likely not going to be with the team beyond their UFA period. Nelson, the worst of the bunch, being the only exception? Oof. I'm far more pessimistic with Tkachuk after reading your examples.
Copp filed for arbitration, so a one or two year deal was going to be selected but they agreed to a two year deal before then. Copp filed for arbitration again, so a one year deal was going to be selected but they agreed to a deal before then. Copp is now about to become a UFA as early as possible, we'll see if he stays in Winnipeg.
Fiala filed for arbitration, so a one or two year deal was going to be selected but they agreed to a one year before then. Fiala is still an RFA this season and we will have to see if he goes for the quick UFA route.
Kempe signed his 2M AAV contract after putting up 12 goals. Zacha signed his 2.2M AAV contract after putting up 13 goals. I think including Nelson was generous enough but we're not talking about the same tier players. A lot different having a fourth liner walk his way to UFA and having your franchise forward doing it. (Kempe breaking out now probably has the Kings regretting the contract....)