Confirmed with Link: Mitch Marner Discussion Thread II - First Team All-Star

[ULF_55]

Do not try, Do or Do Not there are no xStats.

 

[leafsfan5]

He's now finished 1st team in back to back seasons. Players who have done that since 2010:

Connor McDavid
Sidney Crosby
Nikita Kucherov
Shea Weber
Erik Karlsson

Special group of players he's joining

 

[ULF_55]

NHL unveils first, second All-Star teams - TSN.ca

In addition to handing out the individual hardware for its 2021-22 season, the National Hockey League announced the first and second All-Star teams Tuesday night.

www.tsn.ca

Deserves separate recognition.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I was really hard on Marner after the playoffs last year and to start this year.

He had that injury and came back with fury, good post-season too.

Solidified himself as the 2 big deals I would want on the team moving forward.

 

[TheGreatOne11]

I forsee an art ross next season for Marner or Matthews. Marner going to have a fire in his belly next season.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

I forsee an art ross next season for Marner or Matthews. Marner going to have a fire in his belly next season.

If he's healthy he'll for sure finally pass the 100 point mark. He was close this season even after a poor start and injuries.

 

[Lightsol]

I'd love if we could somehow trade Marner for Brady Tkachuk, but there's no way Ottawa would do that. I think that also shows how terrible Marner's contact is.

"Hey, let's trade our 100 point winger for a 60 point winger who is mainly known for cheap shots because he's TOUGH!"

Yeah, this is the kind of stupid thinking that closed the window of the 93 Leafs...

 

[Antropovsky]

"Hey, let's trade our 100 point winger for a 60 point winger who is mainly known for cheap shots because he's TOUGH!"

Yeah, this is the kind of stupid thinking that closed the window of the 93 Leafs...

You round Marners totals up and round Tkatchuks down?

Pot calling the kettle black here

 

[Clyde Brewer]

"Hey, let's trade our 100 point winger for a 60 point winger who is mainly known for cheap shots because he's TOUGH!"

Yeah, this is the kind of stupid thinking that closed the window of the 93 Leafs...

It's not because he's "TOUGH", it's because he's tough as nails.

You can try and mock me all you want, but there's no way Ottawa makes this trade.

You call Marner a 100 point player, but you fail to realize that regular season means nothing. What happens when the game gets tough? I'll tell you, Marner disappears. He's a soft $11 million winger. I'll admit be puts up great numbers during regular season, but he damn well better if he's playing with the league's MVP.

Tkachuk's points totals would also go up if he were playing with Matthews, don't pretend they wouldn't.



The point is, at $11 million dollars, he's well overpaid and we can't afford his contract.

 

[DarkKnight]

Best right winger in the league two years in a row. The rest of the NHL gets it.

 

[francis246]

It's not because he's "TOUGH", it's because he's tough as nails.

You can try and mock me all you want, but there's no way Ottawa makes this trade.

You call Marner a 100 point player, but you fail to realize that regular season means nothing. What happens when the game gets tough? I'll tell you, Marner disappears. He's a soft $11 million winger. I'll admit be puts up great numbers during regular season, but he damn well better if he's playing with the league's MVP.

Tkachuk's points totals would also go up if he were playing with Matthews, don't pretend they wouldn't.



The point is, at $11 million dollars, he's well overpaid and we can't afford his contract.

What has Brady Tkachuk done in the playoffs lmao?

 

[Gary Nylund]

"Hey, let's trade our 100 point winger for a 60 point winger who is mainly known for cheap shots because he's TOUGH!"

Yeah, this is the kind of stupid thinking that closed the window of the 93 Leafs...

How does this apply to the 93 Leafs? I remember the big move we made was moving Clark for Sundin which doesn't seem to fit this theory at all.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The point is, at $11 million dollars, he's well overpaid and we can't afford his contract.

Marner, at 10.9m, was appropriately paid relative to the history of post-ELC contracts. Brady Tkachuk, meanwhile, received a very generous contract that he had not really earned.
Marner, at 10.9m, easily provides more value/impact in the present than his AAV. That's a lot more questionable for Brady Tkachuk.

We can afford Marner's contract, and trading him, especially for a massive downgrade in Brady Tkachuk, would set us back considerably.

 

[Amadeus]

Honestly think we've got the top 2 Leafs of all time playing on the same line when all is said and done.

 

[Busher]

I hated the contract when it was signed, but credit to Marner. It was going to be extremely tough for him to live up to his contract, and I honestly didn’t think he would do it, but he did.

Two consecutive 1st team all-star selections is a massive feather in his cap, and starts to put him in great historical company.

As already mentioned, he and Matthews could be the 2 greatest Leafs when all is said and done, if they win a cup and stick around long enough.

 

[Zybalto]

Marner, at 10.9m, was appropriately paid relative to the history of post-ELC contracts. Brady Tkachuk, meanwhile, received a very generous contract that he had not really earned.
Marner, at 10.9m, easily provides more value/impact in the present than his AAV. That's a lot more questionable for Brady Tkachuk.

We can afford Marner's contract, and trading him, especially for a massive downgrade in Brady Tkachuk, would set us back considerably.

You have to remember that Covid has massively messed with peoples perceptions as well.

All players are paid relative to not just their play but also to how much the cap is going to go up in the future. No team got screwed over harder than the Leafs in this regard (with them signing their big contracts just before Covid hit) as the NHL was doing good business and the cap would have been solidly higher than it is right now. Without Covid, some of the more recent contracts signed would have definitely been higher (Nurse would probably have gotten north of 10 million for example).

Had the future cap been known, Matthews and Marner would have probably signed for a million less each per season.

They are still two of the better value caphits in the 10 million plus club though so I'm not sure what people are even complaining about there TBH.

The cap system still sucks in general and punishes the best fanbases. If anyone is truly interested in promoting the Leafs, promoting cap reform should be at the top of their list. It's not like advantages still arnt out there from LTIR abuse to an obvious imbalance in local tax incentives.

 

[Sypher04]

My biggest hope for Marner next year is that, now that’s he really finding his goal scoring touch at the NHL level, he continues that.

I also genuinely think Matthews and Marner do not need each other as linemates to produce at the levels they have been. I’m not going to advocate for splitting them up altogether, because I believe there is benefit to letting two guys who want to play together do so, but I’d explore having them apart more as well. Especially if JT needs a little pick me up next season

 

[Havoc]

Marner has outplayed his AAV. Are people paying for his salary or something? The only thing you should be concerned about is if he's earning the contract or not. If he is, then you DON'T want to free his cap space for more depth. If even one of your replacements value does not meet or exceed their cap hit, you downgraded (simple logic, marners entire cap hit is being met / exceeded so you need to make sure that entire 11 mil you fill up is exceeded as well -- good luck with that I guarantee you that we will fail trying to get cute with any of matthews marner or nylander).

 

[Zybalto]

My biggest hope for Marner next year is that, now that’s he really finding his goal scoring touch at the NHL level, he continues that.

I also genuinely think Matthews and Marner do not need each other as linemates to produce at the levels they have been. I’m not going to advocate for splitting them up altogether, because I believe there is benefit to letting two guys who want to play together do so, but I’d explore having them apart more as well. Especially if JT needs a little pick me up next season

Just looking at their 5v5 stats over the last 3 seasons:

Regular season:

Matthews/Marner:
TOI: 1853:12
xGF%: 62.01
GF%: 63.99

Tavares/Marner:
TOI: 559:19
xGF%: 48.15
GF%: 37.19

Matthews/Nylander:
TOI: 660:43
xGF%: 54.42
GF%: 46.95

Tavares/Nylander:
TOI: 1464:34
xGF%: 55.68
GF%: 48.60

Playoffs:

Matthews/Marner:
TOI: 217:28
xGF%: 64.83
GF%: 65.48

Tavares/Marner:
TOI: 17:34
xGF%: 47.01
GF%: 0.00 (-3)

Matthews/Nylander:
TOI: 31:54
xGF%: 54.42
GF%: (zero goals scored either way)

Tavares/Nylander:
TOI: 86:43
xGF%: 51.25
GF%: 51.91


Whatever the chemistry they had their first year, I wouldnt play Marner with Tavares as Tavares/Nylander has been solidly more effective the last 3 seasons.....and I wouldnt break up Matthews and Marner ever. One of, if not the best, duos in hockey.

I think Nylander/Tavares have really been lacking a solid and dependable winger to play with them is the bigger issue and I hope we can solidify that spot in the offseason.

 

[ToneDog]

Marner has outplayed his AAV. Are people paying for his salary or something? The only thing you should be concerned about is if he's earning the contract or not. If he is, then you DON'T want to free his cap space for more depth. If even one of your replacements value does not meet or exceed their cap hit, you downgraded (simple logic, marners entire cap hit is being met / exceeded so you need to make sure that entire 11 mil you fill up is exceeded as well -- good luck with that I guarantee you that we will fail trying to get cute with any of matthews marner or nylander).

The concern has more to do with not being able to add a strong enough supporting cast to get you past round #1. We virtually played without a 4th line and paid dearly for it.

 

[Zybalto]

Top xGF% among all players in the playoffs the last 3 seasons with at least 300 5v5 minutes played (173 players total):

1. Marner
2. Byram
3. Karlsson
4. Bergeron
5. Tuch
6. Landeskog
7. Yamamoto
8. Carrier
9. Matthews
10. Makar
11. McDavid
12. Marchand
13. Kadri
14. Theodore
15. Matheson

Top xGF% REL among all players in the playoffs the last 3 seasons with at least 300 5v5 minutes played (173 players total):

1. Marner
2. Bergeron
3. O'Reilly
4. Matthews
5. Faulk
6. McDavid
7. Pastrnak
8. Perron
9. Marchand
10. Lee
11. Yamamoto
12. McAvoy
13. Gallagher
14. Grzelcyk
15. Barzal

Marner really has been the ultimate play driver in the playoffs.

 

[keonsbitterness]

They are still two of the better value caphits in the 10 million plus club though so I'm not sure what people are even complaining about there TBH.

It's called not being able to get out of the first round. Driving for show becomes more and more irrelevant if you continually can't putt for dough.

The cap system still sucks in general and punishes the best fanbases. If anyone is truly interested in promoting the Leafs, promoting cap reform should be at the top of their list. It's not like advantages still arnt out there from LTIR abuse to an obvious imbalance in local tax incentives.

Other than closing/reducing some loopholes, there will be no cap reform under Bettman. Or his successor I'll wager.

Tanenbaum is no reformer. He has typically rubber-stamped anything Bettman wanted at league meetings. And Tanenbaum probably has even less of a voice under Bell & Rogers.

 

[Lightsol]

How does this apply to the 93 Leafs? I remember the big move we made was moving Clark for Sundin which doesn't seem to fit this theory at all.

For the next two years, the operating theory was that the Leafs needed more experienced, tougher players to make the final leap from a final four team to a Cup winner. So other than that trade you mention, the bulk of the Leafs' major transactions were young players, prospects and draft picks for said experienced veterans, which led to the team bottoming out 5 years later.

You round Marners totals up and round Tkatchuks down?

Pot calling the kettle black here

I didn't even look up their totals; I literally pulled them from my gut. The fact that I was so accurate with a gut call says all that needs to be said.

You call Marner a 100 point player, but you fail to realize that regular season means nothing. What happens when the game gets tough? I'll tell you, Marner disappears. He's a soft $11 million winger. I'll admit be puts up great numbers during regular season, but he damn well better if he's playing with the league's MVP.

Tkachuk has never played in the playoffs. How do we know that he wouldn't do the same?

BTW, the "disappearing" Mitch had 8 points in 7 playoff games this year. Brady's brother, who is much better offensively, had 10 points in 12 games.

 

[Gary Nylund]

For the next two years, the operating theory was that the Leafs needed more experienced, tougher players to make the final leap from a final four team to a Cup winner. So other than that trade you mention, the bulk of the Leafs' major transactions were young players, prospects and draft picks for said experienced veterans, which led to the team bottoming out 5 years later.

I just looked up the trading history post 93, not really seeing this myself. I mean there was one really awful trade the made them older and worse probably (the trade to bring back Clark) but most of the moves they made in the next couple of years were minor ones. They had a team with a bunch of veteran players that weren't getting any younger, they peaked when they peaked and that was that.

 

[Holymakinaw]

"Hey, let's trade our 100 point winger for a 60 point winger who is mainly known for cheap shots because he's TOUGH!"

Yeah, this is the kind of stupid thinking that closed the window of the 93 Leafs...

Calling Marner a "100 point Winger" is also stupid, when the guy has never hit 100 points. Marner is a TOP Winger in the NHL. No need to go all silly-buggers and make shit up. Calm down.