Mitch Marner discussion thread continued ..

[Stephen]

If you're relying exclusively on raw basic stat numbers and nothing else to come to conclusions about players, especially over tiny samples, you know something is really really wrong with your evaluation methods. Though you must be relying on something else, to rationalize holding Point up as the gold standard, and treating Marner like some bum who should be kicked off the team, essentially based off of the difference of one singular point.

How exactly? You think a couple million dollars cap space was the difference between winning the cup or not over the past couple years?

Tampa didn't have a choice. They were forced into a bridge. I'm sure many are wishing that they had been able to sign him long term.

I don't think Tampa is wishing they signed Point to a long term deal. I think they're happy with their Stanley Cup win in general and the extra flexibility to keep the band together a little longer.

Point's somewhat average regular season numbers to fantastic playoff production also raises an interesting counter point to our Big 2 Matthews and Marner. Babcock was always roasted for his sparing usage and somewhat deflated regular season numbers, but now we have 60+ goal and 100+ point projected numbers from those guys. Comparatively, Point has gone from 92 point career high to somewhat lower numbers like we would have seen with guys like Zetterberg and Datsyuk, but clearly turns it up in the playoffs.

So all things considered, do we like huge regular season numbers and so so playoffs, or so so regular season numbers but big game playoff performers?

 

[Dekes For Days]

I don't think Tampa is wishing they signed Point to a long term deal.

Every team wants to sign their top players to long term deals. We made the correct call in doing so. Tampa would have done the same, but were unable to due to their cap situation. Bridging Marner wouldn't have changed much for us over the past two years, but would have put us in a worse spot moving forward.

do we like huge regular season numbers and so so playoffs, or so so regular season numbers but big game playoff performers?

That's not really an accurate description of what's being compared here.

 

[Mess]

He should have been bridged.
GMs need to buy low and sell high.

Tampa Bay was rewarded a Stanley Cup in part because Brayden Point a player far more effective then Marner in the playoffs was bridged and only carries a 3 year X $6.75 mil cap, and that allows them to also spend the remaining + $4 mil on additional player(s) to build a deeper and Cup competitive team around him.

Point
2019-20 playoffs (1 playoff season) ... 23 games 14 goals 19 assists 33 points.. Point has almost as many goals (4) in just this playoff round #1 in 6 games than Marner has YTD career wise.
vs
Marner
2016-17 thru 2020-21 (5 playoff seasons) .. 30 games 5 goals 20 assists 25 points.

 

[Stephen]

Every team wants to sign their top players to long term deals. We made the correct call in doing so. Tampa would have done the same, but were unable to due to their cap situation. Bridging Marner wouldn't have changed much for us over the past two years, but would have put us in a worse spot moving forward.

I wouldn't beat that drum too hard, since neither Matthews and Marner signed max. length deals and that is an entirely different can of worms you'd be opening up...

That's not really an accurate description of what's being compared here.

Sure it is. Marner beats Point in regular season point production over the past three years but Point beats Marner by ever metric that matters once their teams are in the playoffs.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I wouldn't beat that drum too hard, since neither Matthews and Marner signed max. length deals and that is an entirely different can of worms you'd be opening up...

Max lengths deals are very rare for players of that quality. The discussion started by somebody suggesting we would have been better off signing Marner to a 2-year bridge, and the only risk would have been him getting the same deal now. That is false.

Sure it is.

I know that people around here like thinking that the grass is always greener, but no, it's not. It would take a very incomplete evaluation to come to that conclusion. Fun Fact: Even just looking at raw production, both Point and Marner have one playoffs over point per game, and that's with Point being a year older, and playing almost exclusively with one of the best players in the league, in his prime.

 

[Stephen]

Max lengths deals are very rare for players of that quality. The discussion started by somebody suggesting we would have been better off signing Marner to a 2-year bridge, and the only risk would have been him getting the same deal now. That is false.

I know that people around here like thinking that the grass is always greener, but no, it's not. It would take a very incomplete evaluation to come to that conclusion. Fun Fact: Even just looking at raw production, both Point and Marner have one playoffs over point per game, and that's with Point being a year older, and playing almost exclusively with one of the best players in the league, in his prime.

Believe me, the grass is a lot greener. Brayden Point had more points in the bubble playoffs than in Marner's entire career combined.

What's important to remember is we're not trying to dunk on Marner. It's to point at his peers and indicate where Marner is falling short. And what his real benchmark for success is.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Believe me, the grass is a lot greener.

That's not what's being discussed though, and that was a long long road for the Tampa team to get to that point. For all you know, Marner will be lifting the same trophy at the same age.

What's important to remember is we're not trying to dunk on Marner.

That seems to be exactly what you're doing.

 

[Stephen]

That's not what's being discussed though, and that was a long long road for the Tampa team to get to that point. For all you know, Marner will be lifting the same trophy at the same age.

We can only hope, but let's keep the expectations high.

 

[Dekes For Days]

We can only hope, but let's keep the expectations high.

One can have high expectations, but still be reasonable, rational, and supportive of our best players, especially in a series we are leading.

 

[Pi]

I don't understand why we'd be adding for a player who will save Buffalo $25M with 1 less year on his contract. Especially when Eichel wants out and Mitch has no desire and there's no other team who can offer a player at or above Eichels level with that kind of tenure and future.

Cost is always higher when you trade in the division and Eichel is a center vs a winger.

If Marner cannot get it done in these playoffs, you gotta take a hard look at trading him and a trade like this would be the best case scenario for both teams.

I highly doubt that the Sabres want more young prospects and picks who can bust as the main pieces coming back.

 

[Gallagbi]

Cost is always higher when you trade in the division and Eichel is a center vs a winger.

...but we're not on the hunt for Eichel, they're looking to unload and we have an asset. So I don't see why we'd be paying the premium.

If Marner cannot get it done in these playoffs, you gotta take a hard look at trading him and a trade like this would be the best case scenario for both teams.

I highly doubt that the Sabres want more young prospects and picks who can bust as the main pieces coming back.

Whole heartedly agree on both, so do we think there's another team that could have a player outperforming Eichel at a similar age? And if so, will be cost half as much in real money and be able to step in as a "franchise" player? I don't see that, which is why I don't think we'd add anything

 

[Menzinger]

I don't think Tampa is wishing they signed Point to a long term deal. I think they're happy with their Stanley Cup win in general and the extra flexibility to keep the band together a little longer.

Point's somewhat average regular season numbers to fantastic playoff production also raises an interesting counter point to our Big 2 Matthews and Marner. Babcock was always roasted for his sparing usage and somewhat deflated regular season numbers, but now we have 60+ goal and 100+ point projected numbers from those guys. Comparatively, Point has gone from 92 point career high to somewhat lower numbers like we would have seen with guys like Zetterberg and Datsyuk, but clearly turns it up in the playoffs.

So all things considered, do we like huge regular season numbers and so so playoffs, or so so regular season numbers but big game playoff performers?

I think the Point contract decision ends up a win beacuse they won the cup. But it will undoubtedly cause more pain/headaches for the team once they have to reuup him. Now he's a guy who gave his team a deal in the bridge AND was a core guy in a cup winning team. Those guys get paid.

There will always be costs to every decision, even ones that end up in a teams favor

 

[Stephen]

One can have high expectations, but still be reasonable, rational, and supportive of our best players, especially in a series we are leading.

I wouldn’t describe either side of the Marner debate as unreasonable or irrational since he’s become a fairly polarizing player based on his last contract demands and underwhelming big game history.

 

[Stephen]

I think the Point contract decision ends up a win beacuse they won the cup. But it will undoubtedly cause more pain/headaches for the team once they have to reuup him. Now he's a guy who gave his team a deal in the bridge AND was a core guy in a cup winning team. Those guys get paid.

There will always be costs to every decision, even ones that end up in a teams favor

Yeah definitely. What I like about Point is he’s all killer, no hype. I bet players who come into the league in non Canadian or Big US markets have a dramatically different experience of superstardom.

In Tampa’s case the short term deal yielded a cup and then kicks their cap Armageddon day down the road. So they can lose a Tyler Johnson and make a few moves before they have to stick handle around Point again. That said, the way they’ve deflated his big glamour numbers I don’t they’d ever have to worry about a $10 million + ask.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I wouldn’t describe either side of the Marner debate as unreasonable or irrational

There have been quite a few unreasonable and irrational things posted about Marner within this thread and others.

 

[wingman75]

Not sure what to think. He has been excellent on the PK, very good defensively, generated scoring changes for others and gotten them for himself. He is not a finisher... but he needs to find way to get one here to just feel good about himself, and give the team a lift. No goals in 16 playoff games is not good enough, even with all that other goodness.

So we need him to continue being good... but we need a little cherry on top.

 

[Antropovsky]

You first cherry picked goals to downplay a playmaker, after a game you admitted you barely watched, where Marner played well. Worse, you then focused in on primary assist generation in an attempt to continue to discredit Marner (one of the best primary assist generators in the league), and in doing so, made a completely false statement about his primary assists. When I pointed out to you that your statement was incorrect, you decided to deny the facts, double down, and throw around false accusations. You then had multiple people correct you, and I linked you to the NHL.com page to prove you were wrong. No response from you.

"Cherry picked goals to downplay a playmaker"

Dekes - you should add the context to this... because this is a very subjective topic. I think you know that though, which is why you intentionally left out the goals stats I was referring to. I said Marner has 0 goals in his past 15 postseason games.

Ok... now that all the information is out in the open... explain how I cherry picked goals to downplay Marner? Please explain how this was so unfathomable of me to do, and why (0 goals in 15 games) is ok because he's a "playmaker".

 

[ORRFForever]

His shot will not improve much. It's not like he's never practiced it before.

That's true. It's as good as it's gonna get.... unfortunately.

 

[ToneDog]

"Cherry picked goals to downplay a playmaker"

Dekes - you should add the context to this... because this is a very subjective topic. I think you know that though, which is why you intentionally left out the goals stats I was referring to. I said Marner has 0 goals in his past 15 postseason games.

Ok... now that all the information is out in the open... explain how I cherry picked goals to downplay Marner? Please explain how this was so unfathomable of me to do, and why it's ok because he's a "playmaker".

16 straight playoff games but who's counting ?

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Not sure what to think. He has been excellent on the PK, very good defensively, generated scoring changes for others and gotten them for himself.

Sounds like 8aav.

 

[Racer88]

Marner is way over paid for such a poor playoff performer.
He is full of razzle dazzle during the regular season but sucks in the playoffs

 

[Stephen]

He blocked a shot with his butt. It was a nice play.

 

[Third Degree Burns]

Ship Marner to the moon

 

[Dekes For Days]

"Cherry picked goals to downplay a playmaker"
Dekes - you should add the context to this...

I gave a full and accurate description of what happened. If what you're searching for is statements with missing context, look no further than your original statement in question.

 

[saffronleaf]

f*** you Marner