Mitch Marner Discussion Continued

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Tampa won before they got swept. They went to the third round or deeper in 2015, 2016 and 2018. Stop comparing us to Tampa. This team is a joke . We're Oilers east. High draft picks with 0 character.
I agree. This nonsense comparison is false.
To even consider that the Leafs are even on the same as Tampa during that time.
Tampa was a very good well balanced team but had a total glitch when they got swept and the Leafs have been a total failure the last 5 playoffs.
 
I agree. This nonsense comparison is false.
To even consider that the Leafs are even on the same as Tampa during that time.
Tampa was a very good well balanced team but had a total glitch when they got swept and the Leafs have been a total failure the last 5 playoffs.

This seems like an accurate summary to me. Hard to believe people are still comparing us to TB, what a joke.
 
I agree. This nonsense comparison is false.
To even consider that the Leafs are even on the same as Tampa during that time.
Tampa was a very good well balanced team but had a total glitch when they got swept and the Leafs have been a total failure the last 5 playoffs.
People on here are in denial, it's sad. Tampa loses in the first round but has 3 cup finals appearances, 2 cups and multiple other playoff runs. But because they lost in round 1, we're in the same boat with them and marner can be point, etc.

There doesn't always have to be a comp. It's a unique situation.
 
I agree. This nonsense comparison is false.
To even consider that the Leafs are even on the same as Tampa during that time.
Tampa was a very good well balanced team but had a total glitch when they got swept and the Leafs have been a total failure the last 5 playoffs.
Just a typical awful comparison by the marner stans. They have nothing else to defend this selfish clown so they just make up random what if’s
 
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Is this the season Marner goes 1.25/ppg?
It wouldn't matter. He is entering a territory you see other athlete's enter where the regular season no longer matters/holds weight. I thought this was clear after CBJ, but doing it against Montreal? Yeah, it's on everyone's mind now. The only thing he could do in the regular season that would perhaps change this would be him winning a scoring title, or setting team records. I mean, it's possible but he is the guy in hockey right now that is clearly shook when the playoffs start. You see it with guys in other sports frequently. Marner has it and the regular season isn't going to do much besides build his confidence back up.
 
Tampa won before they got swept. They went to the third round or deeper in 2015, 2016 and 2018. Stop comparing us to Tampa. This team is a joke . We're Oilers east. High draft picks with 0 character.

What happened in 2017?
 
It wouldn't matter. He is entering a territory you see other athlete's enter where the regular season no longer matters/holds weight. I thought this was clear after CBJ, but doing it against Montreal? Yeah, it's on everyone's mind now. The only thing he could do in the regular season that would perhaps change this would be him winning a scoring title, or setting team records. I mean, it's possible but he is the guy in hockey right now that is clearly shook when the playoffs start. You see it with guys in other sports frequently. Marner has it and the regular season isn't going to do much besides build his confidence back up.

Perfect summary of where Marner's at IMO.
 
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What happened in 2017?
I mean I guess you can go down with the ship, my question is why?

Tampa missed out on the playoffs by a point. Ok, they also made the Cup finals in 2015. They went to Game 7 of the ECF in 2016, losing to the champs. They went to game 7 of the ECF in 2018, lost to the champs.

You're conveniently selecting the 2 seasons they flamed out, that as time goes on look like anomaly's. Comparing them to a team that is supposed to be ascending but has lost in the same stage every season is odd, but I guess this fanbase will do anything to convince them it's just a matter of time.
 
I mean I guess you can go down with the ship, my question is why?

Tampa missed out on the playoffs by a point. Ok, they also made the Cup finals in 2015. They went to Game 7 of the ECF in 2016, losing to the champs. They went to game 7 of the ECF in 2018, lost to the champs.

You're conveniently selecting the 2 seasons they flamed out, that as time goes on look like anomaly's. Comparing them to a team that is supposed to be ascending but has lost in the same stage every season is odd, but I guess this fanbase will do anything to convince them it's just a matter of time.

It is. Shanny said so himself.
 
'Season'.
We'll worry about the playoffs when/if they qualify.

It was a trick question because really it should include both. The regular season never seems to be any problem with Mitch, its his playoff performance where his productivity drops significantly, and where he draws the most criticism for performance.

For some star players the bigger the stage the more important the event the elevate their games to new levels. Dougie Gilmour was like that where is his PPG rate increased come playoffs.

For Gilmour
1992-93 .. regular season 127 points in 83 games = 1.53 PPG & playoffs 35 points in 21 games = 1.67 PPG
1993-94 .. regular season 111 points in 83 games = 1.34 PPG & playoffs 28 points in 18 games = 1.55 PPG

For Marner
2018-19 ... regular season .. 82 games 26- 68-94 points = 1.15 PPG & playoffs ... 7 games 2-2-4 points = 0.57 PPG
2019-20 .. regular season .. 59 games 16-51-67 points = 1.14 PPG & playoffs ..... 5 games 0-4-4 points = 0.80 PPG
2020-21 .. regular season .. 55 games 20-47-67 points = 1.22 PPG & playoffs ... 7 games 0-4- 4 points = 0.57 PPG

For Marner his playoff PPG rate almost gets cut into 1/2 from his regular season, which suggest a pattern that his game is more suited for the regular season than playoff style hockey or he isn't able to elevate his game to even match his regular season production.

Every fan with Cup aspiration anyways playoffs >>> regular season results. IMO
 
I mean I guess you can go down with the ship, my question is why?

Tampa missed out on the playoffs by a point. Ok, they also made the Cup finals in 2015. They went to Game 7 of the ECF in 2016, losing to the champs. They went to game 7 of the ECF in 2018, lost to the champs.

You're conveniently selecting the 2 seasons they flamed out, that as time goes on look like anomaly's. Comparing them to a team that is supposed to be ascending but has lost in the same stage every season is odd, but I guess this fanbase will do anything to convince them it's just a matter of time.

Im only meaning to say that they had some unfortunate injury issues to some key players that caused them to inexplicably miss the playoffs in 2017. They had some bad luck. It happens. It certainly wasnt indicative of the team going forward.

It seems we're both on the same page of being understanding here about Tampa and I'm just applying it to the Leafs, and more specifically, Marner.

Between their own injury issues (worst of any first round team ) and somehow running into that years top goaltending performer 3 years in a row (not just against us but other teams as well) the Leafs have been very unlucky. That should not be a debate.

Picking on Marner's only 8 points in 12 games the last 2 years is a bit extreme though as his overall underlying numbers compared to, not just his team but every other player in the playoffs are elite. It's an odd posterboy for whats gone wrong with the Leafs past runs with depth players literally giving hard fought games away, losing our best playoff dman in Muzzin 2 years in a row and our hottest player coming into the playoffs and captain in literally the first period of game one this year. The Pens and the Oilers have had these same issues to an extent. Having it turn out that Matthews wrist was more messed up than it was let on only shows what the boys were playing through, and why he was just a little off hitting all those posts....off beauty plays from Marner. Here are the top 3 forwards with the best 5v5 score adjusted xGF% the last 2 playoffs (min 150 5v5 minutes played):

1. Draisatl
2. Marner
3. McDavid

The ice was completely tilted when they were on the ice. It's not for lack of trying from these guys but the overall team just didnt work out despite how good they were. Picking on Marner just seems like projection after all the salary nonsense TBH. I'm happy to have such a talent on the team and I certainly wont be one of the "fans" chasing a star like this out of the city.
 
Love this "do it in the playoffs narrative" as if when Marner scores 110 points in the regular season all of those people wont be creaming their pants and talking about him as if he's a top 5 player.

It's so funny to watch this cycle every year lol.
 
Tampa won before they got swept.
They won some rounds, and what good did that do for them in preventing the embarrassing 1st round sweep? Absolutely nothing. If we look at the past decade...

Chicago went from Cup -> 1st round loss -> 1st round loss -> Cup
Boston went from losing the infamous 2nd round "up 3-0" series -> Cup -> 1st round loss
LA went from 1st round loss -> 1st round loss -> Cup
Pittsburgh went from 1st round loss -> Cup -> Cup -> 2nd round loss -> 1st round sweep
Washington went through like a decade of never getting past the 2nd round -> Cup -> 1st round loss
St Louis went from no playoffs -> Cup -> 1st round loss
Tampa went from no playoffs -> 3rd round loss -> 1st round sweep -> Cup

We see these wild, extreme swings in playoff outcomes, and yet people still somehow believe that past playoff outcomes with zero context are the end-all, be-all for evaluating what playoff outcomes will be in the future.
 
Im only meaning to say that they had some unfortunate injury issues to some key players that caused them to inexplicably miss the playoffs in 2017. They had some bad luck. It happens. It certainly wasnt indicative of the team going forward.

It seems we're both on the same page of being understanding here about Tampa and I'm just applying it to the Leafs, and more specifically, Marner.

Between their own injury issues (worst of any first round team ) and somehow running into that years top goaltending performer 3 years in a row (not just against us but other teams as well) the Leafs have been very unlucky. That should not be a debate.

Picking on Marner's only 8 points in 12 games the last 2 years is a bit extreme though as his overall underlying numbers compared to, not just his team but every other player in the playoffs are elite. It's an odd posterboy for whats gone wrong with the Leafs past runs with depth players literally giving hard fought games away, losing our best playoff dman in Muzzin 2 years in a row and our hottest player coming into the playoffs and captain in literally the first period of game one this year. The Pens and the Oilers have had these same issues to an extent. Having it turn out that Matthews wrist was more messed up than it was let on only shows what the boys were playing through, and why he was just a little off hitting all those posts....off beauty plays from Marner. Here are the top 3 forwards with the best 5v5 score adjusted xGF% the last 2 playoffs (min 150 5v5 minutes played):

1. Draisatl
2. Marner
3. McDavid

The ice was completely tilted when they were on the ice. It's not for lack of trying from these guys but the overall team just didnt work out despite how good they were. Picking on Marner just seems like projection after all the salary nonsense TBH. I'm happy to have such a talent on the team and I certainly wont be one of the "fans" chasing a star like this out of the city.

I just don't understand how and why Tampa keeps getting brought up. It's not even close to being a comparison. If I was really optimistic I would say Toronto is closer to the Red Wings of the early to mid 90s. I'm not saying they're going to go on a 20 year run, but those Detroit teams kept losing and losing in round 1. Tampa is on a completely different level. They are more similar to teams knocking on the door of winning the cup and coming up short. Toronto hasn't won a series so it's gotta stop. Especially now, with Tampa going back to back. Makes this fanbase look delusional.

Marner was not good at all for those series, and the 8 points in 12 games make it look better than it was. I am not chasing him out or anything but he has completely flopped, after securing the contract he got. It matters a lot. When you lose to the Habs the way they did, it has to come back at some point. Obviously, after a few months most fans are going to forget a little bit and be optimistic for the new season but I'm not making stuff up here. Marner was allegedly on board with taking less to keep the band together, so when he flames out of the playoffs, while earning that much money it's not chasing him out. His turnovers, penalties, lack of shot and his inability to win a board/corner battle all added up. I'm not saying he isn't skilled and won't put up over a point per game in the season, but we should be past that being the expectation. In the nba, does it really matter what James Harden does in the season anyone? in the mid 2000s, Colts fans saw Peyton get shook in the playoffs and the expectation changed. I'm not lumping marner in with those guys, but bringing them up does demonstrate that I do think he is an incredible talent. It's just been tumultuous for him the last 3 playoff series, and the clock is ticking on this team. Watching him get bullied and scramble around when his moves aren't working raise concerns. I don't think he is a guy you can bank on in the playoffs. Maybe I'll be wrong but it's different for him than what I see with Matthews. Matthews looked bad but Marner looked like he didn't belong in the same league. Never seen a guy repeatedly try to dangle around a bunch of gritty bunch and not adapt. Does he have a plan b?

anyways i won't ramble anymore but I watched marner look terrible 3 series in a row and I'm not gonna look at his reg season production anymore and be encouraged. game does not translate yet.
 
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It seems we're both on the same page of being understanding here about Tampa and I'm just applying it to the Leafs, and more specifically, Marner.

Between their own injury issues (worst of any first round team ) and somehow running into that years top goaltending performer 3 years in a row (not just against us but other teams as well) the Leafs have been very unlucky. That should not be a debate.

I'm not buying this bad luck story. Without getting into it super deep, I'll just repeat the gross numbers from deciding games - outscored 18-6 in the last 4 such games and 11-2 in the last 3. Not sure if you watched those games but if you did, you should know that luck had nothing to do with us getting dominated in those games. TBH I completely hate this narrative as it jives with Marner's comments which were basically shrug, we played great, shit happens, shrug and that just doesn't cut it with me.

And while it's true that the goalies have played well against us, I don't think they've been as good as the numbers would indicate. We've just underperformed and have something to do with making them look good, at least that's the way I see it. But the real issue is - why don't we show up for deciding games. Why is it that when the stakes are the highest, we fold our hand and go home without putting up a fight?

Picking on Marner's only 8 points in 12 games the last 2 years is a bit extreme though as his overall underlying numbers compared to, not just his team but every other player in the playoffs are elite. It's an odd posterboy for whats gone wrong with the Leafs past runs with depth players literally giving hard fought games away, losing our best playoff dman in Muzzin 2 years in a row and our hottest player coming into the playoffs and captain in literally the first period of game one this year. The Pens and the Oilers have had these same issues to an extent. Having it turn out that Matthews wrist was more messed up than it was let on only shows what the boys were playing through, and why he was just a little off hitting all those posts....off beauty plays from Marner. Here are the top 3 forwards with the best 5v5 score adjusted xGF% the last 2 playoffs (min 150 5v5 minutes played):

1. Draisatl
2. Marner
3. McDavid

The ice was completely tilted when they were on the ice. It's not for lack of trying from these guys but the overall team just didnt work out despite how good they were. Picking on Marner just seems like projection after all the salary nonsense TBH. I'm happy to have such a talent on the team and I certainly wont be one of the "fans" chasing a star like this out of the city.

This is the sort of thing that makes me not take all kinds of stats at face value. Over these last 2 playoffs, Marner was nowhere near the 2nd best player, hell he wasn't even that on our team alone. Sorry but these numbers suck and don't tell the truth, IMHO.

I will point out that the last 3 playoffs were bad but before that Marner did play better in the playoffs so there must still be some chance that he figures it out at some point. I think he maybe needs someone to look after him, be his buddy, protect him and get him loose the way Martin did.
 
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