Mitch Marner Discussion Continued

[Stonehands1990]

again like i mentioned thats the playoffs...... yes things change for the playoffs .. are we talking about the regular season that is still 2 months away ? or the playoffs which is 10 months away ? not even knowing who will be in the lineup (trades and injuries).
cmn man we are talking about opening day ffs

Regular season is where you try combinations for the playoffs. Every year roster turnover is a new opportunity to optimize

Keefe barely experiments at all, might as well bring Babcock back at least we had decent special teams with Babs

 

[mikeyz]

I’d assume most of them have never played a competitive hockey game in their life, and are in love with the advanced stats fad. I don’t care what the expected goals are, a shot without traffic is you giving the puck back to the other team

This is exactly what it is.

 

[Ashdown2]

Regular season is where you try combinations for the playoffs. Every year roster turnover is a new opportunity to optimize
Keefe barely experiments at all, might as well bring Babcock back at least we had decent special teams with Babs

are we going to keep changing talking points and playing revisionist history ?
so now we are going to start taking the side of the "good" coach who was hardheaded and basically played matthews with marleau, kapanen and johansson (who had shit chemistry and the line never worked for 2 years) over the "bad" coach that is playing matthews with marner and hyman. ...

BUT im pretty sure the only experimentation you care about is splitting marner and matthews

 

[BrannigansLaw]

I think he will eventually put it all together and be a complete player. I understand the hate but he’s still a kid and he PKs and puts up 90+ points a year for us. He’ll mature and eventually make it happen in the playoffs. I hate his salary but trading him would be stupid. Tavares is the guy you try to trade if we’re shedding an 11mil salary guy.

 

[Gabriel426]

It is the only one.

You can’t blame coaching for AM and Marner combined with ONE goal.
I am pretty sure Keefe didn’t design any plays for Muzzin to score and yet he got TWO goals.

 

[Gabriel426]

I think he will eventually put it all together and be a complete player. I understand the hate but he’s still a kid and he PKs and puts up 90+ points a year for us. He’ll mature and eventually make it happen in the playoffs. I hate his salary but trading him would be stupid. Tavares is the guy you try to trade if we’re shedding an 11mil salary guy.

Firstly, it depends on the return package in any trades.
Secondly, if he doesn’t improve his shot and simplifies his game, he is not going to do well in playoffs.

lastly, he needs to realize whatever he is doing is not good enough, he needs to do more instead of believing he did good or that’s the best….All the great players always find another level and I don’t think it is too much to ask Marner to hit another level when the going gets tough.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Firstly, it depends on the return package in any trades.
Secondly, if he doesn’t improve his shot and simplifies his game, he is not going to do well in playoffs.

lastly, he needs to realize whatever he is doing is not good enough, he needs to do more instead of believing he did good or that’s the best….All the great players always find another level and I don’t think it is too much to ask Marner to hit another level when the going gets tough.

At this point, Marner needs to work on not getting worse once the playoffs hit. Doing better than expectations can be left for the other core guys who at least show up and perform relatively close to their expectations on a regular basis.

A couple of hollow assists and a bunch of stupid mistakes should not be the regular expectation for Marner, even though it has been a regular occurrence since leaving Tavares.

 

[Gabriel426]

At this point, Marner needs to work on not getting worse once the playoffs hit. Doing better than expectations can be left for the other core guys who at least show up and perform relatively close to their expectations on a regular basis.

A couple of hollow assists and a bunch of stupid mistakes should not be the regular expectation for Marner, even though it has been a regular occurrence since leaving Tavares.

I think that’s the problem with Marner and AM, they can’t even sustain their level in the playoffs esp in elimination games. You take away that 6 mins of 6 on 5 and OT in Game 4 against the BJs, both of them along with other Leafs just disappeared when the going get tough.

 

[Dekes For Days]

When someone is getting the results while other more talented players are not, it means they are out working more talented players.

No, if you score more goals over a particular short sample, it doesn't mean that you "worked harder" in that sample than everybody who scored less goals than you. Spezza and Nylander were not the "hardest working" players on multiple teams, and if they don't maintain that goal-scoring pace in the future, it doesn't mean they stopped working hard. There is more work involved in generating opportunities than converting opportunities, and no matter how hard you work, it doesn't guarantee a goal.

 

[Racer88]

I think he will eventually put it all together and be a complete player. I understand the hate but he’s still a kid and he PKs and puts up 90+ points a year for us. He’ll mature and eventually make it happen in the playoffs. I hate his salary but trading him would be stupid. Tavares is the guy you try to trade if we’re shedding an 11mil salary guy.

Obviously you don’t know Tavares has a no move/no trade deal

 

[LFKevin21]

With the way the series went, it really had to be a lot of things going wrong.

Price going hot in Games 5-7.
+
Campbell going cold in Games 5-7.
+
Matthews being left on an island by Hyman and Marner pretty much the entire series.
+
Tavares' injury.
+
Muzzin/Foligno getting hurt.
+
Thornton and Sandin being borderline unplayable and making huge errors.
+
Galchenyuk and Dermott giving up really bad turnovers that led to backbreaking goals.

I think if one of these things does not happen, we win that series. Depending on the one that doesn't happen, we probably win in 5 games.

I questioned the coaches decision to play Sandin in game 1. If the coach plays Dermott, we may have won game 1 and swept Montreal.

 

[Racer88]

No, if you score more goals over a particular short sample, it doesn't mean that you "worked harder" in that sample than everybody who scored less goals than you. Spezza and Nylander were not the "hardest working" players on multiple teams, and if they don't maintain that goal-scoring pace in the future, it doesn't mean they stopped working hard. There is more work involved in generating opportunities than converting opportunities, and no matter how hard you work, it doesn't guarantee a goal.

People’s work efforts ebb and flow. In this series Willy and Jason did out work and out produce them, that doesn’t mean they will in the future.
I’m hoping Marner and Matthews figure it out fast. They are paid to produce and need to do it more consistently.

 

[Dekes For Days]

In this series Willy and Jason did out work and out produce them

They produced more goals in this particular sample, but nothing supports the idea that it was a result of "working harder" than them. Going back to the original discussion, none of this changes the fact that Matthews/Marner dominated their matchup. They were not "shut down" by anybody other than Price.

 

[Leaf Fans]

How are these marner stans still making excuses for this loser?

Marner stans?

 

[Stonehands1990]

are we going to keep changing talking points and playing revisionist history ?
so now we are going to start taking the side of the "good" coach who was hardheaded and basically played matthews with marleau, kapanen and johansson (who had shit chemistry and the line never worked for 2 years) over the "bad" coach that is playing matthews with marner and hyman. ...

BUT im pretty sure the only experimentation you care about is splitting marner and matthews

I don’t care if they’re together or separate all that matters is if the forward lines are optimal

 

[Racer88]

They produced more goals in this particular sample, but nothing supports the idea that it was a result of "working harder" than them. Going back to the original discussion, none of this changes the fact that Matthews/Marner dominated their matchup. They were not "shut down" by anybody other than Price.

My eyes and the eyes of millions tell me that they outworked them.
No subjective made up stats will ever convince most of Leaf nation that those two didn’t choke this series away.
Even the team president said they lacked the killer instinct.
Sometimes life and the real world get in the way of fancy stats

 

[Dreakmur]

They produced more goals in this particular sample, but nothing supports the idea that it was a result of "working harder" than them. Going back to the original discussion, none of this changes the fact that Matthews/Marner dominated their matchup. They were not "shut down" by anybody other than Price.

The Montreal defence did an excellent job of keeping the slot area clear of traffic. Price had a ridiculously clear view of almost every Toronto shot. Sure he made saves, but his teams tough defence combined with Toronto’s unwillingness to take any kind of physical punishment create a perfect storm for easy saves from supposedly high quality shooting areas.

 

[Dekes For Days]

My eyes and the eyes of millions tell me that they outworked them.

I'm not sure you can project your personal feelings about the reason for the difference in production onto millions of people, and the fact is that the "eye test" results in countless people having very different perspectives on things, because the "eye test" is subject to countless biases, especially for a player like Marner where most people already had strong pre-existing biases.

I certainly did not see Spezza and Nylander "working harder" than every single person they scored more goals than in the playoffs. That's a ridiculously simplified take that doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

No subjective made up stats

Are you seriously calling statistics and facts subjective, while relying on the eye test?

The Montreal defence did an excellent job of keeping the slot area clear of traffic. Price had a ridiculously clear view of almost every Toronto shot.

That's just simply not true - they generated quite a bit in close and from the slot, and actually doubled Montreal's rebound attempts, and you also greatly exaggerate the "ease" and how often point blank chances are saved when 15 bodies aren't piled high in front.

 

[Racer88]

I'm not sure you can project your personal feelings about the reason for the difference in production onto millions of people, and the fact is that the "eye test" results in countless people having very different perspectives on things, because the "eye test" is subject to countless biases, especially for a player like Marner where most people already had strong pre-existing biases.

I certainly did not see Spezza and Nylander "working harder" than every single person they scored more goals than in the playoffs. That's a ridiculously simplified take that doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

Are you seriously calling statistics and facts subjective, while relying on the eye test?

That's just simply not true - they generated quite a bit in close and from the slot, and actually doubled Montreal's rebound attempts, and you also greatly exaggerate the "ease" and how often point blank chances are saved when 15 bodies aren't piled high in front.

So are you saying that most Leaf fans don’t think that Marner and Matthews choked away this series.

 

[Havoc]

They produced more goals in this particular sample, but nothing supports the idea that it was a result of "working harder" than them. Going back to the original discussion, none of this changes the fact that Matthews/Marner dominated their matchup. They were not "shut down" by anybody other than Price.

No.1 criteria for your top line dominating is conversion. Look at all the past cup winners. It's the top guys converting. You can't win the cup otherwise. Fundamental principle of hockey is putting the puck in the net. So weigh that at about 0.8 and spread the rest of your stats among the remaining 0.2 and see if the dominating still holds up.

 

[hamzarocks]

Marner stans?

Stans = fanboys

 

[Dekes For Days]

So are you saying that most Leaf fans don’t think that Marner and Matthews choked away this series.

I'm saying that most Leaf fans probably wouldn't agree that the only thing that impacts goal totals is how hard you work, or that Spezza and Nylander worked harder than everybody they scored more goals than in the playoffs, or that everybody who scored more goals than Matthews/Marner worked harder than them. And even if a bunch of people did think that, it doesn't really matter because the facts don't support that.

No.1 criteria for your top line dominating is conversion. Look at all the past cup winners. It's the top guys converting. You can't win the cup otherwise.

Valuing conversion highly in the playoffs is fine - all I'm saying is acknowledge what actually happened. They didn't have a lack of effort or work. They didn't get shut down by Montreal's skaters. If they got "shut down" by anybody, it was Montreal's goalie. And for the record, their line scored 3 goals and allowed 1, so in a matchup sense, even the end results while they were on the ice were in their favour.

 

[hamzarocks]

I'm saying that most Leaf fans probably wouldn't agree that the only thing that impacts goal totals is how hard you work, or that Spezza and Nylander worked harder than everybody they scored more goals than in the playoffs, or that everybody who scored more goals than Matthews/Marner worked harder than them. And even if a bunch of people did think that, it doesn't really matter because the facts don't support that.

Valuing conversion highly in the playoffs is fine - all I'm saying is acknowledge what actually happened. They didn't have a lack of effort or work. They didn't get shut down by Montreal's skaters. If they got "shut down" by anybody, it was Montreal's goalie.

Ha back to the shutdown by goalie excuse. That's three years in a row.

Maybe it's time to get guys who can convert in the playoffs and don't have a habit of getting shutdown by opposing teams goalies

 

[Stephen]

Ha back to the shutdown by goalie excuse. That's three years in a row.

Maybe it's time to get guys who can convert in the playoffs and don't have a habit of getting shutdown by opposing teams goalies

I don't even understand the value in trying to parse out whether it was the Montreal/Columbus goalie or the Montreal/Columbus defensive team effort that beat Toronto these past two years.

If the narrative is the Leafs did their best and got beat by a hero goalie, well, there's more hero goalies out there and winning will never be in our control.

That's actually a way worse conclusion to come to than to shore up the compete level because that's at least under the Leafs control.

Funny that when you look at guys we've added like Ritchie, Kampf and Bunting, Dubas is clearly not looking for pure offensive additions that would overcome the hero goalie road block but instead looking to address those goofy eye test intangibles.

 

[Mess]

I don't even understand the value in trying to parse out whether it was the Montreal/Columbus goalie or the Montreal/Columbus defensive team effort that beat Toronto these past two years.

If the narrative is the Leafs did their best and got beat by a hero goalie, well, there's more hero goalies out there and winning will never be in our control.

That's actually a way worse conclusion to come to than to shore up the compete level because that's at least under the Leafs control.

Funny that when you look at guys we've added like Ritchie, Kampf and Bunting, Dubas is clearly not looking for pure offensive additions that would overcome the hero goalie road block but instead looking to address those goofy eye test intangibles.

That is the million dollar question how do we get Mitch Marner to perform like his comparable Brayden Point come playoff time, and instead of going 18 games without a goal, but become an impactful player instead of a passenger so the Leafs can emulate TB success?

Filling out your bottom 6 with checkers and grinders can't be the solution to make your star players WHO are expected to lead the team to success more effective and efficient and productive.

Brayden Point hasn't lead the playoffs in goal scoring the past 2 years being of similar size to Marner and one of their offensive leaders because TB deploys Barclay Goodrow and Blake Coleman on their 3rd line, nor more then one would expect Bunting and Kampf to change Marner's impact.