Salary Cap: Mitch Marner Contract Discussion Part X | Will Mitch get an OS?

[SprDaVE]

When's the last time a true, already emerged star player took a bridge though? I don't think we can apply the general rules of lesser players to these upper echelon guys.

I can probably agree. Subban and Trouba come to mind, but they are defenseman and it's much different. They would have easily signed huge long-term deals at the time after their ELC but opted for pretty good bridge deals.

Kucherov is Marners closest comparable, but he didn't have a 90 point season before signing his 3 year 4.76m bridge deal. He did have 65 and 66 point season before he signed that bridge deal and had pretty much back to back 30 goal seasons.

I'm more than fine with Marner making a good penny. I think 2-3 year bridge deal makes perfect sense right now. I just think 8m seems really high... but it's manageable.

 

[Stamkos4life]

Trade him.
Do it, and do it before free agency.

Look for an elite D who is affordable + a pick back.

Tired of these young guys taking us to the cleaners without having won anything serious. No awards, no titles and not even 1 playoff round and this kid wants 11+x8? SCREW THAT

Do you feel the same way about Auston?

 

[4thline]

I can probably agree. Subban and Trouba come to mind, but they are defenseman and it's much different. They would have easily signed huge long-term deals at the time after their ELC but opted for pretty good bridge deals.

Kucherov is Marners closest comparable, but he didn't have a 90 point season before signing his 3 year 4.76m bridge deal. He did have 65 and 66 point season before he signed that bridge deal and had pretty much back to back 30 goal seasons.

I'm more than fine with Marner making a good penny. I think 2-3 year bridge deal makes perfect sense right now. I just think 8m seems really high... but it's manageable.

Going back a while
Staal @ 10.23% x 3
Heatley @ 11.54% x 3
Semin @ 9.15 x 2 (he was older but after 3 seasons of service)
Carter @ 8.82% x 3
O'reilly @ 7.78 x 2 (hadn't cracked 60 points, one season above 30)

 

[Jayan]

Whats with the Dreger bashing? Thought u guys liked Marner, and now you’re making fun of his parents?

 

[Stamkos4life]

I honestly think a 2-3 year bridge is the best move for the leafs.

If marner falls behind rants, point, aho, etc, he wont be worth as much when it comes time to re-sign.

If marner crushes it and breaks 100 points, then we know we have a good one and can make moves to afford him.

No one is going to offer sheat us four 1st round picks for marner.

Although I'd probably be okay with someone taking Auston off our hands in exchange for four 1sts. (Arizona)

 

[ACC1224]

Whats with the Dreger bashing? Thought u guys liked Marner, and now you’re making fun of his parents?

People can be gullible.

 

[SprDaVE]

Going back a while
Staal @ 10.23% x 3
Heatley @ 11.54% x 3
Semin @ 9.15 x 2 (he was older but after 3 seasons of service)
Carter @ 8.82% x 3
O'reilly @ 7.78 x 2 (hadn't cracked 60 points, one season above 30)

Panarin is another one, I think it was 2x7m from the top of my head, but he was also older.

 

[Leafsman]

Isn't there supposed to be an increase in HRR from this new gambling deal? Also, a new team in Seattle should bring in more HRR as well.

I don't quite get the lower cap increase this year. Is Vegas not bringing in as much revenue as they thought?

 

[SprDaVE]

Whats with the Dreger bashing? Thought u guys liked Marner, and now you’re making fun of his parents?

Strong hints that he's pushing Ferris/P. Marner bias in his reporting and speculation, which the fans are seeing through it for the most part.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Panarin is another one, I think it was 2x7m from the top of my head, but he was also older.

Panarin was 2 yrs at 6m. Marner just had a more productive season but scoring was up league wide.

2 yrs at 6m makes a ton of sense. That is some great coin right after elc and he has a chance to hit a home run 8 year deal after that.

 

[nuck]

Strong hints that he's pushing Ferris/P. Marner bias in his reporting and speculation, which the fans are seeing through it for the most part.

I thought he was making a joke that Dregs was actually Mitch's dad

 

[Cor]

Isn't there supposed to be an increase in HRR from this new gambling deal? Also, a new team in Seattle should bring in more HRR as well.

I don't quite get the lower cap increase this year. Is Vegas not bringing in as much revenue as they thought?

The reason for the lack of increase this year is the players didn’t use the escalator.

 

[CDN24]

View attachment 240739

If they don't have Marner they would have to address other options in the same way as if they kept him. Add Panarin, or offer sheet Aho and probably move Nylander. With or without Mitch they are likely to need to move Willie to solve their other cap issues unless they lose MM, take the picks and try to roll with Willie, Kap and maybe Bracco on the right. The silver lining is the D improvements they might be able to make with 4 1sts to throw around.

The most likely thing IMO is they re-up Marner and deal Nylander for a D and a bit of cap relief but those other deals are definitely possible. The front loading scenario TSN presented for an Aho OS where they would pay over $20M in a 12 month period might be too rich for Dundon's tastes. The leafs lose their 4 picks but they have another team's for losing Marner so its essentially Marner for Aho with a better contract.

That only works for a max offer with 4 1sts as compensation (it is 4 out of next 45 years). Anything that requires less than 4 1sts has to be the 2020 picks.

 

[CDN24]

From my understanding that is not true on a top tier offer sheets. Its multiple picks in the same round which follow different rules. Where you must have the picks available in the next <amount of picks> + 1 year drafts to be eligible to make such an offer sheet.. So in this case next 4 of 5.

All 31 teams have the picks to make such an offer sheet.

You are right. At the top tier it is 4 out of next 5 1st round picks. Any other level requires you to have your 2020 picks.

 

[4thline]

Panarin is another one, I think it was 2x7m from the top of my head, but he was also older.

Yeah Panarin is in a weird spot. Came off his elc but it took him to UFA so I left it out. 8.22% x 2.

Regardless you can make a strong case that an elite forward gets paid on a bridge. 7-8m x 2-3 years being very defensible

 

[29Potvin]

Offer Sheet Calculator - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps
gives a nice pictorial of what team can offer what

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Isn't there supposed to be an increase in HRR from this new gambling deal? Also, a new team in Seattle should bring in more HRR as well.

I don't quite get the lower cap increase this year. Is Vegas not bringing in as much revenue as they thought?

Vegas is top 4 in league in revenue. The issue is bottom 12 small market US teams and Ottawa had revenue drops from previous year.

 

[aingefan]

Going back a while
Staal @ 10.23% x 3
Heatley @ 11.54% x 3
Semin @ 9.15 x 2 (he was older but after 3 seasons of service)
Carter @ 8.82% x 3
O'reilly @ 7.78 x 2 (hadn't cracked 60 points, one season above 30)

So, this would be 10 of the cap....ish.
Not the biggest % in history, but Ferris and pops can be placated knowing it’s the highest dollar 2yr bridge.
Mitch can still look like a hero and team first guy. Leaving ~60 mil on the table AND cap wiggle room.
The team gets the wiggle room, their guy, staggers the contracts,
AND the anti-Dubas crowd still get to yell and complain about overpayment.
Win-win-win.
Sign me up for 8.16x2yrs

 

[nuck]

That only works for a max offer with 4 1sts as compensation (it is 4 out of next 45 years). Anything that requires less than 4 1sts has to be the 2020 picks.

Right but that's the only kind of offer that makes any sense because it has to be a high enough $ to get the player and the 4 x 1st is what makes the current club let go. That's why any club would have greatly increased pressure to match any OS offer for their star RFA that didn't get them the 4 x 1st in compensation. In the unlikely event the Leafs dipped into OS themselves they want to avoid a 5 year deal so a 6x9+M would cost them the 4x1st but wouldn't require they go all the way to $10.6M in salary. For instance giving Aho the 9.5M the Canes don't want to, in a 6 or 7 year term.

 

[Heisen]

I don't quite get the lower cap increase this year. Is Vegas not bringing in as much revenue as they thought?

There is a limit to growth. The NHL may be at its limit. The cap may fluctuate around this area from now on. Remember what the Rangers were spending when the NHL popped way back when? $85 million. The cap is now 81.5 million, and we're seeing crazy RFA contracts and what feel like untenable situations in general.

The cap came in when the NHL was near death, and it was set at $39 Million. We are 15 years after that now, and the cap is 207% higher.

Do you think that growth continues and the cap will be 169 million in 15 years, or will the NHL have killed itself again? I'm going with the latter.

 

[Stamkos4life]

The worst part for me is that this could've played out so many different ways and yet we seem to be on the worst trajectory possible.

We steal JT, a franchise C, from the islanders for nothing but cap space. Good to go.

We then proceed to have a 5 month negotiation with nylander where he holds out for 2 months and we pay him more then he deserves. He comes back and has his worst season yet. Not good.

We then give Matthews the most player friendly deal in the league with zero playoff success, major awards or even an 80 point season. Not good.

We now have marner, who has led the team in scoring for 2 straight years, trying to get Auston money. Not good.

It would be a tough time for any GM to be running this show, let alone a young rookie. KD has really dropped the ball.

 

[Leafsman]

Vegas is top 4 in league in revenue. The issue is bottom 12 small market US teams and Ottawa had revenue drops from previous year.

God damn Ottawa ruins everything! Who invited them?

 

[ACC1224]

Hopefully by the time we're all back Tuesday this will be resolved.

 

[CDN24]

The worst part for me is that this could've played out so many different ways and yet we seem to be on the worst trajectory possible.

We steal JT, a franchise C, from the islanders for nothing but cap space. Good to go.

We then proceed to have a 5 month negotiation with nylander where he holds out for 2 months and we pay him more then he deserves. He comes back and has his worst season yet. Not good.

We then give Matthews the most player friendly deal in the league with zero playoff success, major awards or even an 80 point season. Not good.

We now have marner, who has led the team in scoring for 2 straight years, trying to get Auston money. Not good.

It would be a tough time for any GM to be running this show, let alone a young rookie. KD has really dropped the ball.

Exactly, it doesn't matter what Marners league comparables are at this point, he will rightly want the same treatment the other 2 got. He already feels disrespected on the ELC stuff where Matthews got the bonus laden version and he got the shaft. At the end of the day what happens to team chemistry if Marner does not get a similar contract to Matthews. Will we have two cliques the Marner group and the Matthews group.

For a team with almost unlimited resources there seems to be a lack of experience in that front office. And its not just KD who has dropped the ball and whose inexperience is showing. What experience does Shannahan have? After his career as a player he became an executive with the league and spent most of his time making suspension videos - I'm not sure how that translate to running an NHL team. Leafs didn't do a whole lot of rebuilding until Lou came onboard about a year after Shannhan. What has Shanny done other than hire babcock, Lou and KD and then dump Lou oh and state publicly that Nylander. Matthews and Marner will need to take team friendly discounts.

 

[IBeL34f]

Exactly, it doesn't matter what Marners league comparables are at this point, he will rightly want the same treatment the other 2 got. He already feels disrespected on the ELC stuff where Matthews got the bonus laden version and he got the shaft. At the end of the day what happens to team chemistry if Marner does not get a similar contract to Matthews. Will we have two cliques the Marner group and the Matthews group.

For a team with almost unlimited resources there seems to be a lack of experience in that front office. And its not just KD who has dropped the ball and whose inexperience is showing. What experience does Shannahan have? After his career as a player he became an executive with the league and spent most of his time making suspension videos - I'm not sure how that translate to running an NHL team. Leafs didn't do a whole lot of rebuilding until Lou came onboard about a year after Shannhan. What has Shanny done other than hire babcock, Lou and KD and then dump Lou oh and state publicly that Nylander. Matthews and Marner will need to take team friendly discounts.

I legitimately can't tell if this is serious or not.

"What has Shanny done other than hire all of the people who, along with all of the high-end talent we've acquired in his tenure, saw us turn ourselves around from a last-place laughing stock one year into a perennial Playoff team with one of the top young cores in the League the next?"