Great Read from The Athletic from Justin Bourne
Mitch Marner isn’t going anywhere via an offer sheet
He’s just not. Sometimes we overthink the hell out of some of these contract disputes because of what players could do. He could sign an offer sheet to play for another team, he could get dealt, he could hold out for an extended period of time. He could also decide to become a hot-air balloon pilot and quit hockey forever, but he’s probably not gonna.
Here’s what I know: Marner isn’t stupid and he has a pretty good idea who butters his bread. And as much as this has been said, it maybe it hasn’t been said enough: Toronto is his Country Crock, it’s his Land O’ Lakes, his Tillamook. He’s not going anywhere by his own choice for an extra million or two a year. To close this opener as it began, he’s just not.
Say the Leafs are trying to give him $9.5 million by six years or something. Can you see any scenario where the Islanders (or whoever) offer him $11.5 by five-ish and Marner thinks that’s actually worth leaving for? Think beyond the business of picks for a sec. Think beyond the leverage factor provided by going on a couple of RFA visits, just think of it from a pure hockey-and-life-going-forward standpoint.
Is Marner really going to sign an offer sheet? He’s going to leave Toronto, a team universally accepted to be among the top tier of teams with a chance to win the Stanley Cup (where he plays nice minutes with great linemates and features as a star) purely for more short-term dollars, setting the bridge back to his home city aflame for the foreseeable future? He’s going to play for the Carolina Hurricanes (or whoever), and come back to Toronto and get booed a handful of times a year, with endorsements and signings around town totaling $600 in yearly revenue paid in Bass Pro Shops dollars?
I’m not trying to disparage any other NHL cities, there’s just no doubt it’d be different. Imagine the fear of leaving and Leafs actually winning the Cupwithout you and think about what could have been. There has to be a five to ten percent chance of that happening, no? This isn’t about this contract, this is about the rest of this guy’s life.
Consider where I’m coming from here. I’ve seen the lives of my own father (Bob Bourne), and that of my father-in-law (Clark Gillies) from the end of their playing days until today. I’ve seen both of them semi-regularly offered card signings for $X per card, with X varying based on the cards, the quantity and whether you get to sign “HoF” after your name or not. I’ve seen appearance fees, speaking fees and paid engagements pop up for years on end, because both guys are Islanders. The fans connect with them, they relate to them and to varying degrees, those two men (and many others) had livelihoods based on what they built with an organization and a region. I mentioned Mitch potentially signing an offer sheet with the Islanders, so I’m obviously aware, there’s a financial life to be had in being a lifelong Islander. Their fans and that region are awesome.
I’m just telling you, because I’ve seen both sides of this, and heard what’s offered to Wendel Clark, Doug Gilmour and the other name players who wore the Maple Leaf: comparing the opportunities between Toronto and most other NHL cities is comparing apples and octopuses. The life you could live after playing out a Hall of Fame career in hockey-mad Toronto would be like having a VIP pass at Disneyland, only Disneyland, in this case, happens to be the entirety of one of the better cities in North America.
This is all about negotiation and the Leafs letting him go through this RFA song and dance is basically just calling his bluff and diminishing his leverage. That the Leafs have made some noise about potentially letting him walk if he does sign an offer sheet should be enough to put the fear of blowing all that into him. The Leafs just do not seem afraid that the player is dumb enough to forfeit the whole What Could Be scenario. He’s not walking away for what could be a couple million a year up front and a tarnished legacy at home. He’s just not.