Mitch Marner isn’t going anywhere via an offer sheet
He’s just not. Sometimes we overthink the hell out of some of these contract disputes because of what players could do. He could sign an offer sheet to play for another team, he could get dealt, he could hold out for an extended period of time. He could also decide to become a hot-air balloon pilot and quit hockey forever, but he’s probably not gonna.
Here’s what I know: Marner isn’t stupid and he has a pretty good idea who butters his bread. And as much as this has been said, it maybe it hasn’t been said enough: Toronto is his Country Crock, it’s his Land O’ Lakes, his Tillamook. He’s not going anywhere by his own choice for an extra million or two a year. To close this opener as it began, he’s just not.
Say the Leafs are trying to give him $9.5 million by six years or something. Can you see any scenario where the Islanders (or whoever) offer him $11.5 by five-ish and Marner thinks that’s actually worth leaving for? Think beyond the business of picks for a sec. Think beyond the leverage factor provided by going on a couple of RFA visits, just think of it from a pure hockey-and-life-going-forward standpoint.
Is Marner really going to sign an offer sheet? He’s going to leave Toronto, a team universally accepted to be among the top tier of teams with a chance to win the Stanley Cup (where he plays nice minutes with great linemates and features as a star) purely for more short-term dollars, setting the bridge back to his home city aflame for the foreseeable future? He’s going to play for the Carolina Hurricanes (or whoever), and come back to Toronto and get booed a handful of times a year, with endorsements and signings around town totaling $600 in yearly revenue paid in Bass Pro Shops dollars?
I’m not trying to disparage any other NHL cities, there’s just no doubt it’d be different. Imagine the fear of leaving and Leafs actually winning the Cup without you and think about what could have been. There has to be a five to ten percent chance of that happening, no? This isn’t about this contract, this is about the rest of this guy’s life.