Salary Cap: Mitch Marner Contract Discussion Part VIII | We Waitin'

[MyBudJT]

Who cares if Kucherov "regrets" his ufa contract. It's still an indicator of the market. It's what he signed.

Does this go both ways?

If a gm "regrets" offering a player so much money in hindsight, is the contract no longer a comparable players can use?

Yes, I would say it does work both ways.

If your closest comparable signs a contract, and they go on to hate the contract... why would you sign the same contract?

 

[MyBudJT]

But the poster I was responding to claimed that Matthews was relegated to the 2nd PP unit his first 2 seasons.

Right, my bad. Sounds like we're on the same page here.

 

[KPower]

Exactly from an offer sheet.

Point was if the leafs think marner is asking for too much, and they expect to lose him via OS (a real possibility) them why burn the first on shedding the Marleau contract? Just keep Marleau this year, keep your first, and the four 1sts from the Marner OS.

The Marleau trade to me signifies they are close enough with marner to get a deal done and needed the cap space.

Wrong.

The Marleau deal was done to ensure they can match an offer sheet and not lose Kap and little John.

 

[Marshy]

An accurate one, but yes.

.....but not measurable.

 

[Cotton]

Can you not care about both?

Your question reminds me that things aren't typically so black and white, so I'm sure on some level that's the case.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Well, I think that's essentially what Kyle Dubas needs to do.

Today, he should be tabling a final offer. And say, considering I have other players, and a team to improve, the next offer on July 2nd, after you speak to all these teams, will be lower.

And leave it there. Tell them they are risking money by talking to other teams, and if they take that risk, they sure as hell better get an actual offer sheet.

Kinda like the hot chick in college you wanted to ball. You say to her look this is the first/last time I am going to ask you out. If you say no then I won't ever again. Then she laughs at you and walks away. Then you think wow that was stupid because if she comes back later and says heh I like you but i had prior plans when you asked me but lets go out next Saturday night and you would say well no i can't do that sorry. To each his own i guess. To me you only do that when you have no options left. Why not wait out bluff? The season is still months away.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Doesn't that pretty much apply to every RFA coming off their entry level contract?

I suppose you're right - I just don't know if their demands are to be the highest paid player in the league at their position

 

[81Leafs50]

I agree but has he ever done it with a player who has the leverage of a Marner. I still think a reasonable deal will be the end result but this is at least a little different

Marner has no leverage.

JT's pts increased by 4 (from 84pts in NYI to 88pts in Toronto)

Marner has 19, 22, 26 goals in the last 3 years. He is not top 5 in any stats, unlike Mathews.

Even at Nick Bachstroms 11.3% of the cap, that brings Marner to 9.3AAV. SO its unprecedented to pay a playmaker the kind of money that Marner is looking for.

top 5 playmakers in the last 5 years:

Based on today cap 83M by cap %:
Kane 12.6326M (2-30goal seasons, 2-40 goal seasons)
Crosby 12.035M (7-30 goal seasons, 1-40 goal season, 1-50 goal season)
Backstrom 9.3M (1-30 goal season)
Wheeler 8.6154M (no 30 goal seasons)

NO PLAYAMAKER WHO HAS NOT SCORED 30 GOALS OR MORE IN A SEASON MAKES OVER 9M. THESE ARE FACTS.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Yes, I would say it does work both ways.

If your closest comparable signs a contract, and they go on to hate the contract... why would you sign the same contract?

It doesn’t matter tif every other gm thinks that Eichel got overpaid based on his elc numbers. It still helped set the market.

Similarly,

it doesn’t matter if every other player thinks Kucherov was underpaid. It still helped set the market.

 

[nuck]

Good to know.

I think the question still stands.

I would hope its the $10.6 they draw the line at. The overpays some other clubs have done on UFAs are irrelevant I think, and I would be surprised if any of the actual comps are close to $10.5, but its obviously wide open if the other elite RFAs are in that range. I don't know that he deserves it, but I expect Mitch will be the highest AAV of this group. just not as high as he hopes.

 

[MyBudJT]

It doesn’t matter tif every other gm thinks that Eichel got overpaid based on his elc numbers. It still helped set the market.

Similarly,

it doesn’t matter if every other player thinks Kucherov was underpaid. It still helped set the market.

Sure, just like every contract helps set "the market". Not sure what you're getting at exactly.

 

[Cor]

Kinda like the hot chick in college you wanted to ball. You say to her look this is the first/last time I am going to ask you out. If you say no then I won't ever again. Then she laughs at you and walks away. Then you think wow that was stupid because if she comes back later and says heh I like you but i had prior plans when you asked me but lets go out next Saturday night and you would say well no i can't do that sorry. To each his own i guess. To me you only do that when you have no options left. Why not wait out bluff? The season is still months away.

Negotiations over money is nothing like asking a girl out.

Asking a girl out isn't a negotiation lmao

 

[therealkoho]

I'd match anything under 4 1st round picks, above that and I wouldn't match

I'd also wait until an actual offersheet comes in before I'd even bother moving off 9.75M×7, which is my number

it's become very clear that Marner's sticking to no more then a 5 year deal

TERM is important and Mitch IS NOT looking for anything longer then 5 years

 

[MattySnipes]

Can someone explain to me why Mitch feels Auston is his only comparable? Thanks.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Sure, just like every contract helps set "the market". Not sure what you're getting at exactly.

You claimed that Kucherov will “regret” his contract, so Dubas can’t use it as a comparable for Marner. Which is silly.

I find it frustrating that when a bad contract is signed, it becomes the new FLOOR for where leaf negotiations begin. But when a GOOD contract is signed? It apparently doesn’t count.

Also, why does u22 years count for Marner vs Kucherov but didn’t count for Kapanen vs Johnsson?

 

[The CyNick]

Money in the bank is one part of a players total compensation from the team. Does anyone spend more on "extras" for the players than Toronto? Sure agents don't care about that at the end of the day because they don't get a cut of those benefits - but the players do.

Take 12 Million from the Islanders if you want or the Blue Jackets or whomever. I'm sure their perks are good too...

Sometimes it's just about respect. Leafs offer is saying you hold significantly lower value than matthews in our eyes. You look at teams like Tampa and Chicago who had no trouble putting their wingers at the top of their pay scale.

So if another team comes in with a similar offer to the leafs but meets his term requests, they might win the day.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Can someone explain to me why Mitch feels Auston is his only comparable? Thanks.

The idea is that Dubas paid Matthews FAR above market value in an unprecedented contract. So now Marner is saying “Why should I accept fair market value of Matthews didn’t?”

A lot of us knew this would happen the very moment Matthews unprecedented dramatic overpayment was signed.

 

[The CyNick]

Can someone explain to me why Mitch feels Auston is his only comparable? Thanks.

Because they ate teammates.

Think of any job. If you have someone that works next to you and is begging paid way more than you, you will compare your salary to them more then someone from a competitor.

 

[The CyNick]

Wrong.

The Marleau deal was done to ensure they can match an offer sheet and not lose Kap and little John.

If marner is out of the equation, there's no issue with those players.

And have those deals even been finalized yet?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Because they ate teammates.

Think of any job. If you have someone that works next to you and is begging paid way more than you, you will compare your salary to them more then someone from a competitor.

If the competitors were under the same collective bargaining agreement and the competitors employees were under the same union... it would change things quite a bit...

 

[The CyNick]

.....but not measurable.

Most of the points were just facts. Like a yes-no type thing.

Did the GM say he would get the big three signed? Yes. Have they been? No.

Did he say Mitch was #1 priority? Yes. Has he been signed? No. Has it come out that some other players have deals in place? Yes. Has the GM made a big trade? Yes. Does any of that make it seem like marner is TOP priority? No.

 

[KPower]

If marner is out of the equation, there's no issue with those players.

And have those deals even been finalized yet?

Leafs want to keep all 3 of them.

Kap and Johnny have verbal agreements.

Nothing signed yet because they need to keep cap space for a crazy offer sheet for Marner.

Not saying they match a crazy offer sheet but they want that option.

 

[SniperOnTheWing]

it's become very clear that Marner's sticking to no more then a 5 year deal

TERM is important and Mitch IS NOT looking for anything longer then 5 years

And that all stems from his obsession with Matthews and needing to be treated the same or better as Matthews.

If Mitch signed a six year deal he would have to watch Matthews extend after his five years into a new $15M AAV or whatever it ends up being, and poor Mitch would be stuck making 'only' $11M for his last extra year and that apparently would be unacceptable. His camp doesn't seem to want him to make a penny less than Matthews at any point in his career or else its considered a sign of disrespect. Therefor he wants to be up at the same time and get raises at the same time to maintain his perceived status.

 

[therealkoho]

I think if Marner does the "Tour" the fans will turn on him, even if he eventually signs in Toronto.

His camp should be smart enough to know this.

If he does that and doesn't perform better then his cap hit he will always be a scapegoat/whipping boy for the fanbase.

Edit: The guy has the chance to be one of the most loved Leafs of all time and he might let his Dad and Agent ruin that for him (This all is based on reports being true)

have you been reading this thread?

sound's like LeaFland already has

 

[MyBudJT]

You claimed that Kucherov will “regret” his contract, so Dubas can’t use it as a comparable for Marner. Which is silly.

I find it frustrating that when a bad contract is signed, it becomes the new FLOOR for where leaf negotiations begin. But when a GOOD contract is signed? It apparently doesn’t count.

Also, why does u22 years count for Marner vs Kucherov but didn’t count for Kapanen vs Johnsson?

You're misquoting me, man.

Lets get things straight, because people like to misinterpret things around here. I never satated Kucherov WILL regret his contract.

I suggested it is likely (maybe he won't... who knows), especially when we watch the Skinners of the world get 9M. Do you think I'm wrong here?

I also didn't say that you wouldn't be able to use Kucherov as an example still... like I didn't say that at all... Not sure where you got that from. You would just have to pony up a bit more money given that Kucherov is likely going to be underpaid for his services.

Once we can get on the same page here, I'll address your other questions/comments if you'd like.