Salary Cap: Mitch Marner Contract Discussion Part VIII | We Waitin'

[Mess]

Marner can ask for whatever he wants, but without an offer sheet, he's not worth more than $10m x 8 years. If he wants less years, the AAV drops as well. He has no leverage if an offer sheet doesn't come. And I don't think one will.

FWIW on That's hockey yesterday it was reported that as little as 4 and perhaps has many as 6 teams would like to speak to Marner when the courting period open tomorrow.

 

[4thline]

If you were giving up 4 1st. round picks would you offersheet anything less than 7 years knowing that it cost you those picks.

Since I'll be a Leafs fan with or without every single fricken player on the team, I really want to see an offersheet.

8.8m x 6 years, = 1st+1st+2nd+3rd.

 

[ULF_55]

8.8m x 6 years, = 1st+1st+2nd+3rd.

Leafs would love Marner to sign something like that, but he won't.

 

[Riellyfan04]

8.8m x 6 years, = 1st+1st+2nd+3rd.

lol you really think marner would sign that?

 

[Hockey Talker29]

If you were giving up 4 1st. round picks would you offersheet anything less than 7 years knowing that it cost you those picks.

Since I'll be a Leafs fan with or without every single fricken player on the team, I really want to see an offersheet.

Overall, I'd like to sign Mitch to an extension at around $9.5m, for 5 or more years at least.

I'm not sure he lasts the whole contract here if I'm in charge. His perceived league value may be greater than his actual value. If I think that's the case, he's probably the chip I use to address our RD issue.

 

[18leafsfan18]

I think we all know how this is going to play out in the end, as we witnessed it with Nylander and Matthews already.

Dubas was willing to toss away a 1st round pick just to create cap space, which is great for Marner and Ferris because they now know Leafs have the cap space to meet their demands, without using limited cap space argument against them now that Kappy and AJ are signed. Player agents understand leverage and how to best use that to their financial gain for their clients.

When the dust settles Marner will be the highest paid winger in the NHL on likely the shortest term. The question remaining will it be with the Leafs.

Way to look at the negative side of absolutely everything you mentioned.

 

[The CyNick]

The last time the GM bet against Marner was last summer when he turned down $9M X 8 years. Now it seems like he's betting against him drawing interest from other teams. Maybe he should stop betting against his players.

Assist man gonna get paid.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I would think that Brayden Point would the most logical target for an offer sheet as TB probably won't want to pay him any more than 9m or so. FLA is a regional rival, would be pretty interesting if they offered him 11m.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Such high demands for someone with such a limited resume

 

[Mess]

If you were giving up 4 1st. round picks would you offersheet anything less than 7 years knowing that it cost you those picks.

Since I'll be a Leafs fan with or without every single fricken player on the team, I really want to see an offersheet.

There are even more conclusions we can make that are OS related.

If Marner currently sitting at $11 mil X 5 years (surrendering only 1 years of UFA status) and the opposing team will want 7 years minimum to make the 4 X 1st comp picks worth while than their offer must be greater than $11 mil per season because $11 mil AAV for 5 years is a better deal than $11 mil over 7 years for Marner (because for the same $ rate), he would hit UFA status 2 years earlier and cash in on his 3rd deal.

So any team willing to submit an OS that Marner would sign and they're willing to surrender the 4 X 1sts would logically have to almost start with a $12 mil AAV.

If Dubas current offer is $10 mil AAV X 8 years and a signed OS by Marner is $12 mil (or more) X 7 years he is facing, then it would be silly and bad for business for him to match that offer and end up paying +$2 mil more AAV/season and get 1 less year to boot than his current offer. He might as well just have given Marner his $11 mil X 5 year deal and be done with it, rather than let another team dictate by how much he has to overpay to match to keep Marner.

So for all 3 sides Leafs, Marner and the 3rd party OS team, then if there is a valid OS its Bye Bye Mitch and hello 4 X 1sts in the best interest of all involved.

As hard as it might be for some to see Marner go for draft picks, it might actually be in the best interest of Leaf Nation fans as it might be saving Dubas from himself by forcing his hand.. Reason being if you cheer for the crest on the front rather the name on the back then having 3 X $11 mil players on the same team impacts Cup competitiveness negatively through lack of team depth, and the real goal of any Leaf fan should be priority #1 the Cup.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I think this is really now a pretty easy analysis. Mitch highly unlikely signing before July 1st. If another team offers 10.6M or more for Mitch then Leafs will take the 4 1st round picks. If a team offers 10.6M or less then Leafs will match. Marner's camp knows this and so do Leafs. So we will get a deal around that number like I said I think it is 10.5M and if I was Leafs I would press for 8 years. However if another team offers less years then Leafs will match. Burke reported through an unnamed Sportsnet staff person to Ferris that Leafs are at 10M for 8 years. then Burke says he does not know this though. Perfect way to smoke screen the issue so not to get Mitch in trouble with Shanny but get his message out with perfect deniability. Dirty pool there ferris. but I guess all is fair in love and contract negotiations.
But I think this RFA OS thing will not materialize once again. As soon as someone does it then affects all max teams CAP in a down CAP year.
Point will wait for Marner's deal then finalize his deal somewhere above that number which is great for our Leafs. We can put Tampa in a rough situation next year with Vasi up for his 10M per deal. And bottom line between Tampa, Boston and us it is a war of CAP now.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think this is really now a pretty easy analysis. Mitch highly unlikely signing before July 1st. If another team offers 10.6M or more for Mitch then Leafs will take the 4 1st round picks. If a team offers 10.6M or less then Leafs will match. Marner's camp knows this and so do Leafs. So we will get a deal around that number like I said I think it is 10.5M and if I was Leafs I would press for 8 years. However if another team offers less years then Leafs will match. Burke reported through an unnamed Sportsnet staff person to Ferris that Leafs are at 10M for 8 years. then Burke says he does not know this though. Perfect way to smoke screen the issue so not to get Mitch in trouble with Shanny but get his message out with perfect deniability. Dirty pool there ferris. but I guess all is fair in love and contract negotiations.
But I think this RFA OS thing will not materialize once again. As soon as someone does it then affects all max teams CAP in a down CAP year.
Point will wait for Marner's deal then finalize his deal somewhere above that number which is great for our Leafs. We can put Tampa in a rough situation next year with Vasi up for his 10M per deal. And bottom line between Tampa, Boston and us it is a war of CAP now.

This is just bizarre, where do you come up with this stuff? Unless the team making the offer is a bottom feeder, I'm almost 100% certain that the Leafs wouldn't consider even for a moment not matching an offer of 10.6 for 8 years.

 

[Sypher04]

lol you really think marner would sign that?

And that we wouldn't match it instantly

 

[18leafsfan18]

What would be max in what Leafs would match on an 7 year offer sheet ?

11 AAV ?
11.5 AAV ?

IMO they should not match anything over 11, and at that I think it's way too much, but since the 4 1st doesn't come into effect until 10.6 it's likely the number.

PS. MOD edit .. I corrected your post because 7 years is the max any other team can sign Marner for, as only the Leafs are allowed the 8th year as per CBA.

 

[ULF_55]

This is just bizarre, where do you come up with this stuff? Unless the team making the offer is a bottom feeder, I'm almost 100% certain that the Leafs wouldn't consider even for a moment not matching an offer of 10.6 for 8 years.

From everything we've heard he doesn't want a long term contract, more in the 5 year range.

IMO that would eliminate some teams would want him for more than 2 year past the last 1st. rounder they give up.

Realistically, they could be giving up a 1st. round pick the same year he becomes UFA.

(4 1st. rounder over 5 years ... 5 year contract)

 

[ACC1224]

I think this is really now a pretty easy analysis. Mitch highly unlikely signing before July 1st. If another team offers 10.6M or more for Mitch then Leafs will take the 4 1st round picks. If a team offers 10.6M or less then Leafs will match. Marner's camp knows this and so do Leafs. So we will get a deal around that number like I said I think it is 10.5M and if I was Leafs I would press for 8 years. However if another team offers less years then Leafs will match. Burke reported through an unnamed Sportsnet staff person to Ferris that Leafs are at 10M for 8 years. then Burke says he does not know this though. Perfect way to smoke screen the issue so not to get Mitch in trouble with Shanny but get his message out with perfect deniability. Dirty pool there ferris. but I guess all is fair in love and contract negotiations.
But I think this RFA OS thing will not materialize once again. As soon as someone does it then affects all max teams CAP in a down CAP year.
Point will wait for Marner's deal then finalize his deal somewhere above that number which is great for our Leafs. We can put Tampa in a rough situation next year with Vasi up for his 10M per deal. And bottom line between Tampa, Boston and us it is a war of CAP now.

Why would Ferris want that information out there?
IMO, doesn't give Mitch a good look.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

This is just bizarre, where do you come up with this stuff? Unless the team making the offer is a bottom feeder, I'm almost 100% certain that the Leafs wouldn't consider even for a moment not matching an offer of 10.6 for 8 years.

No one knows for sure. This is what we talked about at DC by a few parents at MC yesterday. Over the 4 1st rounder threshold and Leafs do not have the CAP money to field a full 23 man roster next season. We will see. Look I am friends with Paul and Bonnie and love little Mitch who is a great kid. but this is the hard reality facing Leafs now.

 

[Gary Nylund]

What would be max in what Leafs would match on an 8 year offer sheet ?

11 AAV ?
11.5 AAV ?

IMO they should not match anything over 11, and at that I think it's way too much, but since the 4 1st doesn't come into effect until 10.6 it's likely the number.

It's a very interesting question IMO and one that's really hard to answer, partly because it depends on who's making the offer. It's tricky because assuming it's a team not likely to miss the playoffs in the near future, the picks won't be worth a Mitch Marner so even if the offer is 11.5M, I think they probably match myself. It's likely to look like a totally fine price to pay in a couple of years so the only reason not to match is optics. Are the optics bad enough to say goodbye to Marner? I doubt it.

At 12 or 12.5 it becomes tougher because at that point, the optics get just that much worse. I don't see any good team going that high though.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

Such high demands for someone with such a limited resume

Doesn't that pretty much apply to every RFA coming off their entry level contract?

 

[4thline]

Leafs would love Marner to sign something like that, but he won't.

lol you really think marner would sign that?

Based on what we're hearing no. But it's a high value offer in the context of the league wide salary structure, and it actually makes sense for a team cap wise.

10.5 x 5 makes sense comp wise, but would send shockwaves through the league.
11+ x7 gets into heavy comp + shocks the RFA wing market

Those are the offers Marner is banking on, and they're not exactly slam dunks. I think what teams offer and what Marner will sign may be two very different things

 

[Gary Nylund]

No one knows for sure. This is what we talked about at DC by a few parents at MC yesterday. Over the 4 1st rounder threshold and Leafs do not have the CAP money to field a full 23 man roster next season. We will see. Look I am friends with Paul and Bonnie and love little Mitch who is a great kid. but this is the hard reality facing Leafs now.

So you just pulled it out of ... um ... nowhere, got it. That's what I thought.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Why would Ferris want that information out there?
IMO, doesn't give Mitch a good look.

I don't know. but I don't think Burke would have said what he did on national Sportsnet TV. To me I would never have Ferris represents either of my boys.

 

[BallardEra]

Just saw Paul at Starbucks. Decided to ease the tension of negotiations by offering to buy him a tall dark roast.

Told me he'll only accept a Venti size.

 

[hyduK]

Such high demands for someone with such a limited resume

Matthews just got 11.6m with a similar resume but a history missing time each year.

Seems in line.

 

[18leafsfan18]

What would be max in what Leafs would match on an 7 year offer sheet ?

11 AAV ?
11.5 AAV ?

IMO they should not match anything over 11, and at that I think it's way too much, but since the 4 1st doesn't come into effect until 10.6 it's likely the number.

PS. MOD edit .. I corrected your post because 7 years is the max any other team can sign Marner for, as only the Leafs are allowed the 8th year as per CBA.

Thanks Mess.

Completely wasn't thinking about the 8 yr vs 7 yr rule (and never thought about it applying here, but obviously it would).