Salary Cap: Mitch Marner Contract Discussion Part VIII | We Waitin'

[budzz]

For there to be an "Offer Sheet" is not just a team reaching out with a crazy number (who knows how crazy over what the Leafs can and likely will offer). I have no idea what the Leafs offer is, but let's say between 8.5 and 10.5. I think thats the acceptable range for the Leafs, so assume a stupid 13+ or something crazy by a Rangers or Habs or Preds or (insert crazy gm here).

First, Mitch has to get together with agent and family and say "Yes, we are going to sign this offer to play in (...) for the next 5-8 years. Once pen is put to paper, Mitch is saying he is signing to play with another, not-his-hometown team. An official declaration that he wants to leave. Let that play out in the Toronto media a few days, and most all will say thanks but see-ya.

I think if he signed anything and the Leafs matched, it would be seen as a weakness against the Leafs, forced to succumb. And if they did, the PR disaster of a player that signed elsewhere but is part of our core would not fly. I would think after deep thought and media hype they would not match.

Danger is, 4 first round picks sound nice... but if it's a decent team, and knowing Mitch would make any team that much better, it might well be 4 late first rounders, maybe 24-31, which years from now may not look as nice.

 

[613Leafer]

What teams can legitimately take a run at an offer sheet on Marner?

Teams Missing Their 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round pick in 2020
*Buffalo
*Colorado
*Columbus
*Dallas
*Minnesota
*New Jersey
*Pittsburgh
*Philly
*San Jose
*Washington
Teams with all the required picks but with <11M in Projected Capspace (accounts for reasonable RFA re-signings)
*Arizona
*Boston
*Calgary
*Edmonton
*Montreal
*NYR
*St. Louis
*Tampa
*Winnipeg
*Vegas
Remaining Offersheet Threats
*Anaheim
*Carolina
*Chicago
*Detroit
*Florida
*LA
*Nashville
*NYI
*Ottawa
*Vancouver

Of the "offersheet threats", teams like Carolina, NYI, Vancouver, etc, who have their own top RFAs due this year or next year (Aho, Petterson, Barzal, etc) may be pretty hesitant to offersheet Marner. It would both open them up to retaliation, and drive up the price of their own RFA.

Some of the other potential offersheet threats are probably too bad to take the risk right now (e.g. Ottawa, Detroit, maybe Anaheim, etc).

Nashville I think is the biggest threat. Maybe teams like Chicago/LA if they want to rejuvenite their former contending core, though they're a bit tighter in terms of capspace than some of the other teams.

 

[4thline]

So.. it'll be difficult to convince Marner to take less. What's Dubas going to say? "Oh sorry Mitch, we overpaid Matthews. That was our bad. Don't use that contract as a comparison, it was a mistake. Now sign for under 10m and oh, at more than 5 years, so you'll be ufa at 28-29 ish.?"

"Hey Mitch, we felt that hat AM gotten to offersheet time he would have credibly commanded a 12.5-13 x 7 offersheet, we paid him accordingly to mitigate that cap hit. Since you're unsigned in July you can see what the market yields, we will see if it's in our budget."

 

[hamzarocks]

"Sorry Mitch, we understand that you have been the best 5v5 goal scorer since you entered the league. Wait...sorry that was Matthews? Well that's ok. You must have right behind him though? What? Oh, turns out he was 15% ahead of anyone else. But surely you were top 10? 112th? Oh ok. But Matthews got play to Tavares so that explains it for him. Really? It was you who played with Tavares. But Tavares must have increased his point totals by a couple dozen going from his terrible linemates on the Island to playing with you, right? Up by 4...and scoring was up this year? Who was it you said you wanted to paid the same as?"

Why would anyone care about 5v5 goals? Seriously this is the best people have to justify the Matthews contract with? What about his 5v5 assist? Or his total assist, total points? Matthews lagged behind in terms of real production so people look at one area to prop him up. He wasnt a top 10 player when he signed his contract but still got the 2nd highest cap hit in the league.

Playing with tavares is a better argument but your ignoring the fact that Tavares was already a established ppg player. Tavares doesnt have the talent to produce 110 points. Once your at an elite level and been there for several years it's nearly impossible to move past it. Look at Kessel was a 30+ goal scorer for the leafs. People said with the pens you would see a drastic increase and he would become a constant 40+ goal scorer. It never came to be.

Marner saw his huge jump in points due to primarily natural growth as a player. He was going to improve from 69 points as a sophomore to a ppg winger. Playing with tavares(who he had amazing chemistry off the bat with) helped him get even better.

Marner doesnt deserve 11+ million based on merit. But the truth is neither did Matthews deserve 11.634 based on his accomplishments. He simply wasnt a good enough to warrant that sort of deal. Dubas gave it to him since he is one of his franchise building blocks and Hope's he can get better to make it a worthwhile deal.

Marner has the right to demand to be paid as much as he can get. He has decided to use Matthews as the comparable. It's unfortunate but for some reason people dont view wingers as good as centers. As a result he will be hurt and see himself getting valued lower than Matthews.

Marners best bet if he wants to get paid like AM34 is to take a 2 year bridge deal, go out and win the Art Ross and show he is better version of Patrick Kane(who is probably the 4th best player in the world since 2010). Marner wants to get paid that is fine. He wants to make AM34 money(or AM34+) than he needs to deliver ross/hart/Smythe performance and hed find that hed get a blank check

 

[biotk]

What teams can legitimately take a run at an offer sheet on Marner?

I think Columbus is a decent bet if they lose Panarin and Duchene. Maybe New Jersey if they think Hall will not re-sign there next summer. The Rangers and Islanders might. I don't see Colorado or Carolina doing so (some people have mentioned them).

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

That isn't moving the goal posts. Cap space is only real if you can actually spend it. You can't sign a 12 million dollar player without having to shed salary when you actually ice a full roster.

Not only is it the very definition of moving the goal posts (i.e., asking for something then immediately pivoting to asking for something else once you're shown to be incorrect).

Now you've moved on to straw-manning me. Please quote where I say sign a 12 million dollar player. No need, because here's what I actually said in the post you replied to:

If it's a choice between Mitch vs 4 first round draft picks + 12 million in cap space to spend, I'm taking the picks.

 

[biotk]

Playing with tavares is a better argument but your ignoring the fact that Tavares was already a established ppg player. Tavares doesnt have the talent to produce 110 points. Once your at an elite level and been there for several years it's nearly impossible to move past it.

If Tavares gets the same production playing with inferior linemates then that is all the more reason to trade Marner.

 

[Ryan Michaels]

It's weird that people see it as us vs him when it comes to marner but not with matthews who was signed to a horrible contract. You would think the message board fans on here would have more loyalty to the local kid.

You must be joking? This absolutely happened with Matthews and Nylander, and well it did the posters who care about stupid crap like "being a local kid" baselessly sainted Marner as the heart and soul of this team and the only one who wasn't selfish. Are you actually kidding me? It's taken extremely ugly public negotiations and demands that make it look like Marner wants to price himself out of town to get to this point.

Absolutely joke of a post, but hey plenty here have called out your track record already.

 

[hamzarocks]

If Tavares gets the same production playing with inferior linemates then that is all the more reason to trade Marner.

Tavares got the same production playing with lesser linemates like Bailey(still a low end 1st line these past 3 years), okoposo, and moulson b/c the team was centered around him and the offense catered to him. He was younger and was the main guy. He had the powerplay run through him when playing for the isles and played as a play maker. On Toronto he simply isnt the franchise guy. Hes 3rd in line behind Matthews and Marner.

Losing marner to keep Tavares would be idiotic. Marner was at worst slightly behind Tavares this season. He is 6 years younger than JT. If you move one of them its Tavares.

 

[Superstar]

$11M x 8 was not offered. That comes from a Friedman quote:

"My belief is that the leafs have told Mitch Marner that if he wants the big number - like 11 or whatever it is - they want him to go to 8 years, and I think that at this point in time Mitch Marner is not prepared to do that."

The context is that he thinks Marner doesn't want an 8 year contract. The Leafs have not officially offered Marner anything. Not the wording Friedman used. "My belief" and "I think", not "sources say". Toronto Media at its finest, doing whatever it takes to generate those clicks, and Toronto fans being Toronto fans believing it as absolute truth and freaking out over it.

It's almost July 1st...LOL...I believe the Leafs have given Marner some offers to think about...the numbers are not being leaked.

 

[jrgtml67]

I don't get people here. Why the banter? Same happened with AM and Nylander both signed. There's a reason Kap and AJ haven't signed formally yet..hmmm maybe because we aren't doing anything until Mitch is done. Weird Kyle said that no?

The media has to make things interesting it's their job. He will sign and probably on July 1st for 6 to 7 yrs 9.5 to 10.5. Done

 

[Superstar]

10 teams are missing one of their picks from the first three rounds next draft so aren't eligible for an offersheet (unless its in the four 1sr rounder compensation range, which I don't think any team does).

Probably another ~10 teams simply don't have the capspace.

One team I'm worried about though... Nashville. They have all the required picks, just cleared a ton of capspace, have needed an elite offensive catalyst for pretty much their entire existence, and are a good team (especially with Marner) so the 1st rounders would very likely be in the 20-30 range.

I think they are clearing the cap space to go hard after Duchene...they need a centre...Turris is falling out of favour very quickly and they will probably try to unload him too.

 

[Eye Test]

**** that, 1 year or no thanks



You'd think we would have learned wouldn't you?



I'd turn around and offersheet Aho or point, just for the lols

Then i'd smarten up and trade for a defenseman with my assets and cap space like a sane person

We don’t have our first unfortunately

 

[The Legend]

Why would anyone care about 5v5 goals? Seriously this is the best people have to justify the Matthews contract with? What about his 5v5 assist? Or his total assist, total points? Matthews lagged behind in terms of real production so people look at one area to prop him up. He wasnt a top 10 player when he signed his contract but still got the 2nd highest cap hit in the league.

Playing with tavares is a better argument but your ignoring the fact that Tavares was already a established ppg player. Tavares doesnt have the talent to produce 110 points. Once your at an elite level and been there for several years it's nearly impossible to move past it. Look at Kessel was a 30+ goal scorer for the leafs. People said with the pens you would see a drastic increase and he would become a constant 40+ goal scorer. It never came to be.

Marner saw his huge jump in points due to primarily natural growth as a player. He was going to improve from 69 points as a sophomore to a ppg winger. Playing with tavares(who he had amazing chemistry off the bat with) helped him get even better.

Marner doesnt deserve 11+ million based on merit. But the truth is neither did Matthews deserve 11.634 based on his accomplishments. He simply wasnt a good enough to warrant that sort of deal. Dubas gave it to him since he is one of his franchise building blocks and Hope's he can get better to make it a worthwhile deal.

Marner has the right to demand to be paid as much as he can get. He has decided to use Matthews as the comparable. It's unfortunate but for some reason people dont view wingers as good as centers. As a result he will be hurt and see himself getting valued lower than Matthews.

Marners best bet if he wants to get paid like AM34 is to take a 2 year bridge deal, go out and win the Art Ross and show he is better version of Patrick Kane(who is probably the 4th best player in the world since 2010). Marner wants to get paid that is fine. He wants to make AM34 money(or AM34+) than he needs to deliver ross/hart/Smythe performance and hed find that hed get a blank check

I'd be curious if there's any stats to back up that Marner got better regardless of Tavares' impact.

 

[LaPlante94]

Tavares got the same production playing with lesser linemates like Bailey(still a low end 1st line these past 3 years), okoposo, and moulson b/c the team was centered around him and the offense catered to him. He was younger and was the main guy. He had the powerplay run through him when playing for the isles and played as a play maker. On Toronto he simply isnt the franchise guy. Hes 3rd in line behind Matthews and Marner.

Losing marner to keep Tavares would be idiotic. Marner was at worst slightly behind Tavares this season. He is 6 years younger than JT. If you move one of them its Tavares.

Yikes

 

[The Legend]

Tavares got the same production playing with lesser linemates like Bailey(still a low end 1st line these past 3 years), okoposo, and moulson b/c the team was centered around him and the offense catered to him. .

Isn't this more an indictment on Marner than it is Tavares?

 

[613Leafer]

I think they are clearing the cap space to go hard after Duchene...they need a centre...Turris is falling out of favour very quickly and they will probably try to unload him too.

I think so, but Duchene will probably have ~10-12 teams after him. Going after Marner, Nashville might be the only one (aside from Toronto), or would at least be one of like 2-3 potential offersheet rivals. Duchene's also another 1B type of C, and not really distinctly better than Johansen, and only slightly better than Turris historically (though you're right that Turris recently has dropped off and is probably a hard guy to rely on). Marner would be a definitive major offensive boost to the team, even if he's a winger.

Not that I even think an offersheet is likely, just saying that IF a team were to do it, I'd put Nashville right near the top of potential teams to do it.

 

[Kiwi]

We don’t have our first unfortunately

You need 4 1st round picks consecutively over 5 years apparently

So even though we don't have next year's 1st we can still throw out an offersheet worth 4 1sts because we have the 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 picks

 

[Superstar]

Let's put it this way, 4 1sts is enough for me not to offersheet somebody like Marner

Image if you pulled an Ottowa? Bloody hell that's franchise killing for a decade

I'm definitely not budging until I see an actual offersheet with Marner's name on it, then I'd make a calculation on what I'd do afterwards, most likely not matching

The Leafs not only get 4 1st round picks from another team...they will have 8 1st round picks in the next 4 years (I know we traded next year's to dump Marleau, but you get the picture)...that's a boat load of quality players to build up the team or trade for a stud #1 D.

 

[Kiwi]

The Leafs not only get 4 1st round picks from another team...they will have 8 1st round picks in the next 4 years (I know we traded next year's to dump Marleau, but you get the picture)...that's a boat load of quality players to build up the team or trade for a stud #1 D.

With a crap ton of cap space

 

[Eye Test]

You need 4 1st round picks consecutively over 5 years apparently

So even though we don't have next year's 1st we can still throw out an offersheet worth 4 1sts because we have the 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 picks

I believe you need the next years pick and then a subsequent 3/4 years but I could be wrong

 

[Jozay]

A team is out there has to be comfortable paying Mitch 11 million a year while also giving up their next 4 first round picks. Thats tough, but maybe theres someone out there.

 

[biotk]

If you move one of them its Tavares.

Can't move Tavares - NMC. Can move Marner if his contract demands exceed what the team is willing to pay. It is really simple.

 

[Superstar]

I think so, but Duchene will probably have ~10-12 teams after him. Going after Marner, Nashville might be the only one (aside from Toronto), or would at least be one of like 2-3 potential offersheet rivals. Duchene's also another 1B type of C, and not really distinctly better than Johansen, and only slightly better than Turris historically (though you're right that Turris recently has dropped off and is probably a hard guy to rely on). Marner would be a definitive major offensive boost to the team, even if he's a winger.

Not that I even think an offersheet is likely, just saying that IF a team were to do it, I'd put Nashville right near the top of potential teams to do it.

Matt Duchene is a whole lot better than Turris at this stage in their careers...Duchene had 31 goals, 70 pts in 73 games last year, with 5 goals, 10 pts in 10 playoff games for the CBJ, and really showed his mettle in the playoffs...Turris? 7 goals, 23 pts in 55 games...and 2 pts in 6 games in the playoffs...if I'm Nashville, I'm praying for another team to take him. Every GM knows you need to be deep down the middle to be able to compete. Duchene is a great fit behind Johansen.

 

[magicmitchmarner]