Salary Cap: Mitch Marner Contract Discussion Part VII | The Saga Continues

[TheBeastCoast]

ohh sorry I must misunderstand the rule. I thought it had to be like 10.5 x 5 to meet the threshold. And that additional years would make it more easy to meet the threshold (like 9x6), but fewer years would make it easier to fall below the threshold?

No it only defaults back to 5 years if it goes over 5 years in term. Under and it doesn't get adjusted upwards. So even a 1 year offer sheet at 11 million would in theory return 4 first round picks.

 

[Caesium]

If Marner signs a fair deal in the range of his contract comparables like Johnsson just did (9-9.9 mil) everyone here will be celebrating both player and GM.

Marner hasnt proven to be worth being paid as the highest paid winger in NHL history. That's what folks are balking at his agents posturing.

He wants to be paid relative to the other players on his team, which he has lead in scoring in two of the three years he has played in the league.

 

[Alerion]

He wants to be paid relative to the other players on his team, which he has lead in scoring in two of the three years he has played in the league.

Why are other RFAs bound by their comparables around the league, but Marner can only be compared to one of the greatest goalscoring centers of the last 30 years, just because they're teammates?

 

[Caesium]

Why are other RFAs bound by their comparables around the league, but Marner can only be compared to one of the greatest goalscoring centers of the last 30 years, just because they're teammates?

It's really easy to compare players when they're playing beside each other. You don't need to account for someone playing on a "good team" or a "bad team" and having their numbers skewed. Marner put up 94 points on the same team as a guy getting paid $7 million for 27 points.

 

[Jmo89]

I haven't kept up alot since playoffs... With Marleau gone and the presumed cap hits of AJ and Kap extensions, how much more space do they need to clear for Marner at 10-11M?

 

[Menzinger]

Marner can demand as much as he wants. Doesnt change the fact hes not getting paid like a centre.

And his ability to get that money is slipping away.

I suspect he'll holdout a bit past July 1st, but will circle around to a fair deal with the team once he realizes hes not getting delusional money anywhere else. And player and fan can put all this behind us

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Sure, and 2/3 of his sample size suggest he's a 60-70 point winger. His only big year came with an elite center. We better not offer him more than 6.5 million!

Say what? at 19 and 20yo? That's a massive difference from a 24yo.
What does that mean for Nylander? He is a 40 point player without and elite Center?
That's absurd.

 

[Alerion]

It's really easy to compare players when they're playing beside each other. You don't need to account for someone playing on a "good team" or a "bad team" and having their numbers skewed. Marner put up 94 points on the same team as a guy getting paid $7 million for 27 points.

In the first half of your argument you want to compare apples to apples, then in the second half you use statistics in as misleading a way as possible to try and further your argument. Do you really think Nylander gets 7 million if he puts up 27 points going into his ELC? Why not use points per game over their ELC if you want apples to apples?

Are Tampa, Colorado, or Carolina bad teams? Since they aren't, surely Point, Rantanen, and Aho can be comparables? Aren't you at all concerned that Marner's first unworldly season came alongside a center notorious for making his wingers look better than they are?

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Marner can demand as much as he wants. Doesnt change the fact hes not getting paid like a centre.

And his ability to get that money is slipping away.

I suspect he'll holdout a bit past July 1st, but will circle around to a fair deal with the team once he realizes hes not getting delusional money anywhere else. And player and fan can put all this behind us

So smoother negotiations than Nylander who went to Dec1st??

 

[Alerion]

Say what? at 19 and 20yo? That's a massive difference from a 24yo.
What does that mean for Nylander? He is a 40 point player without and elite Center?
That's absurd.

I'm framing that argument using the other poster's logic against Johnsson, it's not something I believe to be true.

 

[Caesium]

In the first half of your argument you want to compare apples to apples, then in the second half you use statistics in as misleading a way as possible to try and further your argument. Do you really think Nylander gets 7 million if he puts up 27 points going into his ELC? Why not use points per game over their ELC if you want apples to apples?

Are Tampa, Colorado, or Carolina bad teams? Since they aren't, surely Point, Rantanen, and Aho can be comparables? Aren't you at all concerned that Marner's first unworldly season came alongside a center notorious for making his wingers look better than they are?

Aren't you concerned that Nylander's 60 point seasons were played with Matthews, and away from Matthews he only scored 27? Marner played at a 90 point pace without Tavares in the second half of the prior season, a fact that featured in the video Dubas played for Tavares during their meetings.

 

[Alerion]

Aren't you concerned that Nylander's 60 point seasons were played with Matthews, and away from Matthews he only scored 27? Marner played at a 90 point pace without Tavares in the second half of the prior season, a fact that featured in the video Dubas played for Tavares during their meetings.

I put more stock in the 2 season sample size than the 0.5 season sample size at this point.
That's a fair point regarding Marner's 2018 and I'm fully on board with him getting paid as a 90-100 point winger, in the 9.5 AAV range, like his comparables suggest.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Why are other RFAs bound by their comparables around the league, but Marner can only be compared to one of the greatest goalscoring centers of the last 30 years, just because they're teammates?

Because they see their gm as soft.

 

[Caesium]

I put more stock in the 2 season sample size than the 0.5 season sample size at this point.
That's a fair point regarding Marner's 2018 and I'm fully on board with him getting paid as a 90-100 point winger, in the 9.5 AAV range, like his comparables suggest.

Marner is Kucherov's comparable in the sense that in his 21 year old season he produced at the same rate as a 24 year old Kucherov. Marner also kills penalties.

 

[hector morrison]

And it was panned universally as a HORRIBLE contract.

Typical for the leafs... citing some of the worst contracts in the league to rationalize our gm’s overpayments.

I dont see any overpayments...stick around for a couple years...the landscape is always changing.

 

[BallardEra]

Well you can see the Dubas strategy of letting Ferris know that he's busy tending to other Leafs matters.

"Sorry man unless you want to talk reasonably I have other business to take care of."

 

[hector morrison]

It's really easy to compare players when they're playing beside each other. You don't need to account for someone playing on a "good team" or a "bad team" and having their numbers skewed. Marner put up 94 points on the same team as a guy getting paid $7 million for 27 points.

You need to widen your field of vision!

 

[Alerion]

Marner is Kucherov's comparable in the sense that in his 21 year old season he produced at the same rate as a 25 year old Kucherov. Marner also kills penalties.

Kucherov also scores a lot more goals, which commands a higher price tag. What about Kane or Gaudreau? And of course Point, Rantanen, and Aho whenever those deals come in, although those guys aren't asking for north of 10.5 million like Mitch is right now.

 

[hector morrison]

Aren't you concerned that Nylander's 60 point seasons were played with Matthews, and away from Matthews he only scored 27? Marner played at a 90 point pace without Tavares in the second half of the prior season, a fact that featured in the video Dubas played for Tavares during their meetings.

Seriously? Your using Willy as a comparable? In a shortened season?

Let me ask...if throwing all the sticks in a pile ,which one do you take first when selecting team mates...Austons or Mitch? I like watching Mitch more...but I'm picking Auston all day every day!

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I dont see any overpayments...stick around for a couple years...the landscape is always changing.

But there’s also ALWAYS gm’s giving out horrible contracts that burden their team down the road.

Let’s just say... at the very least, the jury is still out for Dubas...

 

[trellaine201]

I think Dubas and company are readying for an offer sheet to match. If it’s too high he will take picks.

As much as a love Marner I’m happy with 4 firsts. Recoup the ones we’re losing.

 

[hector morrison]

But there’s also ALWAYS gm’s giving out horrible contracts that burden their team down the road.

Let’s just say... at the very least, the jury is still out for Dubas...

He will never make everyone happy! Ever been a manager? Goes with the territory. There always seems to be an outlier of some sort where a team feels they need a player to put them over the hump and therefore overpay the player,but things do average out. It can't be easy ,dealing with money grubbing agents,player egos,etc.

Are you aware that top players are under pressure from the Players Union to get as much money as possible? It raises the bar for all the other players! Anyway,looks to me like the young Leafs are undeserving,because they are being paid before they have accomplished (won) anything! The amount of money really is secondary to me!

 

[Mess]

Why are other RFAs bound by their comparables around the league, but Marner can only be compared to one of the greatest goalscoring centers of the last 30 years, just because they're teammates?

To put it bluntly, Marner and his agent Ferris believe Marner is worth how much they can extract out of Dubas in terms of a valid contract, and they can use any comparables they like that serves that agenda, including the use of an OS threat. That is really what it boils down to.

They could use Wayne Gretzky, Tiger Woods and Muhammad Ali as comparables if they wanted to, if it served their purpose and Dubas falls for it and meets their salary demands.

Dubas is in control and he is the one that decides how much Toronto is willing to pay Marner, nobody is holding a gun to his head. Marner can only sign a contract he is presented with, and can't sign himself to any new deal on his terms.

Marner/Agent are simply trying to take advantage financially of the vulnerabilities of a young inexperienced GM, and we will soon find out as to how much that ends up being, when the dust settles on a new contract.

If Marner successfully convinces Dubas that he is equal to Matthews and all other comparables irrelevant, then that is on Kyle (and by extension Shanny who hired and entrusted him with negotiating new contracts) not Mitch.

Most posters are blaming the player when its the GM that is getting played .. Don't hate the player hate the game !!!

 

[Alerion]

To put it bluntly, Marner and his agent Ferris believe Marner is worth how much they can extract out of Dubas in terms of a valid contract, and they can use any comparables they like that serves that agenda, including the use of an OS threat.

They could use Wayne Gretzky, Tiger Woods and Muhammad Ali as comparables if they wanted to, if it served their purpose and Dubas falls for it and meets their salary demands.

Dubas is in control and he is the one that decides how much Toronto is willing to pay Marner, nobody is holding a gun to his head. Marner can only sign a contract he is presented with, and can't sign himself to an new deal on his terms.

Marner/Agent are simply trying to take advantage financially of the vulnerabilities of a young inexperienced GM, and we will soon find out as to how much that ends up being, when the dust settles on a new contract.

If Marner successfully convinces Dubas that he is equal to Matthews and all other comparables irrelevant, then that is on Kyle not Mitch.

Most posters are blaming the player when its the GM that is getting played .. Don't hate the player hate the game !!!

I think it's fair to blame the player when they're asking for outlandish numbers and shopping themselves more aggressively than any RFA in history. Regardless, it doesn't appear that Dubas is playing the game and Marner may end up regretting how he's allowed his agent to handle this.

 

[kk87]

The Marleau trade essentially guarantees that Marner gets resigned at all costs, or the Leafs make a huge splash in free agency. There's no way we give up a 1st round pick if we're not going to end up right at the cap ceiling.