Yes it is and yes you are. There is a FAR better statistical case to support my inference that JT had a large influence on Marner's breakout (which you seem to dismiss entirely) than your proposition that Marner was already destined to continue his pace from the end of the previous season (which you seem to accept as fact).
Call it skewing, call it bias, call it whatever you like but it's a thing.
And playing a majority of the time with Matthew's didnt influence nylanders production?
Marner is a golden talent, Nylander is an excellent player, but not on marners level.
Marner drives production, Nylander compliments it.
Is marner worth 10/11 million a season?
Maybe not this season or next, but in 2 seasons, his contract will be a steal, if the cap continues to rise.
Is marner more important to the leafs than Nylander? Easily.
Is marner worth more than the percentage of the cap space that nylander now occupies? Imho .... yup.
Is Marner just as important as Matthew's? I think so.
Will Marner be worth the money he is seeking now? No, but as with every other player like this, you are paying for potential and probabilities.
Is Matthew's worth the money he is presently getting? No.
But once again, it is all about possibilities and potential.
A simple way I look at it is,
Instead of playing the all the numbers on a roulette wheel, as with some players and the extenuating perameters involved, it actually comes down to a red or black situation. 50- 50 odds.
I like those odds.
Marner has produced and continues to grow.
Nylander hasnt put up those type of numbers and to a point, neither has Matthew's because of injuries and playing time allotments that Babcock has deemed permissible.
Sign marner to a contract and just dont include a NMC, which I dont think he is allowed at this time re NHL bylaws and rules.
You can always trade him or any of the young 3 to fix the problem if they dont produce.
The leafs are only a injured Anderson away from missing the playoffs anyways.
Sign marner and move on. No matter who you try to replace Marner with, it will be step backwards IMHO.