Salary Cap: Mitch Marner Contract Discussion Part VII | The Saga Continues

[Hockey Crazy]

At this point everyone is pretty riled up about a bunch of speculation. This is exactly what his agency is going for when they have dreger as a tool for their negotiations.

Going into this week, it makes sense to threaten the offer sheet, but I expect Dubas to go up a bit on an offer on tuesday night and give Marner a chance to take it. I dont think he actually has any intention of signing an offer sheet, but I'm sure his agent knows the best offer isn't on the table yet from the leafs. The moment they go into July and an offer sheet isn't signed, they risk a stalemate. I think the intention is to sign with the Leafs this week, maintain his good standing with the fans, and get the best offer they can without letting this get ugly.

I'm withholding judgement until then...

 

[Superstar]

Id be shocked if this doesnt end up at $10.5 x 5 years. Not sure why it takes so long to play out. He wants a 5 year deal. He is a 90 point winger. Surely leafs and marner cant be that far off. If dubas is at 9.5 and marner is at 11.5 it doesnt seem like that much room to bridge

I wouldn't sign Marner to 5 years...it's the same term as Matthews...either 4 or 6...probably 4 for the cap hit, and he'll still be an RFA I believe when the contract is up...$9.5 mm x 4 years.

 

[Superstar]

At this point everyone is pretty riled up about a bunch of speculation. This is exactly what his agency is going for when they have dreger as a tool for their negotiations.

Going into this week, it makes sense to threaten the offer sheet, but I expect Dubas to go up a bit on an offer on tuesday night and give Marner a chance to take it. I dont think he actually has any intention of signing an offer sheet, but I'm sure his agent knows the best offer isn't on the table yet from the leafs. The moment they go into July and an offer sheet isn't signed, they risk a stalemate. I think the intention is to sign with the Leafs this week, maintain his good standing with the fans, and get the best offer they can without letting this get ugly.

I'm withholding judgement until then...

They already offered him $11 mm x 8 years, which is a pretty good offer...the Leafs don't have much cap space left...with Kapanen and Johnsson soon to be signed, I think they only have a bit over $10 million in cap space unless they ship out Kadri, Brown and/or Zaitsev to free up salaries. I think the 8 year deal is probably off the table now...4 years would be my guess.

 

[glue]

10x6 is the max leafs should go..

 

[biotk]

probably 4 for the cap hit, and he'll still be an RFA I believe when the contract is up...$9.5 mm x 4 years.

He would be UFA.

 

[Gabriel426]

I am pretty sure his agent what’s the Leafs offer looks like, anyone with Capfriendly knows how much the Leafs still have after Marleau is gone.
I really think both sides is just playing chicken and see who will blink first.

 

[Hockey Crazy]

They already offered him $11 mm x 8 years, which is a pretty good offer...the Leafs don't have much cap space left...with Kapanen and Johnsson soon to be signed, I think they only have a bit over $10 million in cap space unless they ship out Kadri, Brown and/or Zaitsev to free up salaries. I think the 8 year deal is probably off the table now...4 years would be my guess.

They did not offer 8 x 11. Go listen to the interview... it's very clear that is speculative. The 11 mil number is used as an example of a big number like Matthew's money. He never said they made that offer just that they were talking about term and $ and different contract structures.

This is exactly why Twitter is so bad. People dont read the tweet carefully or someone post incomplete info and it spreads around the internet until it's the real story.

 

[YearsintheWilderness]

Interesting how the narrative from the shills has changed slightly in the past few days. Before it was, "will be talking to other teams," and other language that suggested Marner's camp would be actively seeking out teams to see what they would offer. Now it has changed to "no doubt other teams will be contacting Marner's camp." I think they sense the anger building against them.

As for Dubas: wish he would man the eff up and get his elbows out. He always talks about stats, process, etc. But surely he knows the importance of personality and using psychology in negotiations. If he presents the way he does in interviews as an accommodating, kind-to-a-fault push-over (who unfortunately looks like he's eleven years old), he won't be doing himself any favours.

 

[Dragao6]

And you think another GM would have lost the RFAs?

Any GM would have locked these guys up. The question is would a smart one have known to lock up marner for 8 years at $9M the summer before the season he's slated to ride shotgun with Tavares? I know what I would have done.

The media in Toronto have been playing this poor Dubas routine because he's got to manage the cap. But so does every team. This kid walked into the easiest situation in the history of hockey to get his name on the Cup. He was given Matthew's, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Rielly and Andersen without doing a thing to contribute to acquiring them. All he had to do was not be terrible at negotiation and communication and he would have a solid core locked up for 7 years. Instead, he butchered literally every deal so far. And he keeps getting worse.

On top of putting us in as some well respected hockey people have termed "cap hell", he's cost us multiple 1st and multiple 2nd round picks. This will severely hamper our ability to cycle in young talent. Thank God we have Babcock pulling double duty in Europe recruiting free agents.

Yup babcock is doing wonders in scouting in europe.
Just like anything who knows what you or any of us would have done last summer with marner. Its not easy racking up points in this league but you knew marner would have scored 94 pts? You knew even though tavares is a great player would have topped his career high in goals last year? You knew Matthew's would have gotten hurt off troubas hit to allow marner to lead the team in points on his contract year?

I had a feeling they would do well but didnt expect such high numbers right away.
I know I would not have offered 9M to someone that his hole career is 2 60 pts seasons. I'm not convinced he a career 90pt+ career guy, hope so but no it wasnt as easy as at least your saying.
Dubas could have done better, specially with nylander which led to the rest but the difference of what he should have got these contracts locked up for isnt huge.
Put it this way....if you were able to lock up marner for 9M last summer, what number do you think nylander would have negotiated for right after?

 

[bentharbs]

I'm not convinced he a career 90pt+ career guy, hope so but no it wasnt as easy as at least your saying.
Dubas could have done better, specially with nylander which led to the rest but the difference of what he should have got these contracts locked up for isnt huge.

But how many guys are "career 90+ point guys"? Not even Sid has been a career 90+ point guy.

 

[Walshy7]

Id be shocked if this doesnt end up at $10.5 x 5 years. Not sure why it takes so long to play out. He wants a 5 year deal. He is a 90 point winger. Surely leafs and marner cant be that far off. If dubas is at 9.5 and marner is at 11.5 it doesnt seem like that much room to bridge

Because he and his dad feel slighted throughout his career and need a win in the contract negotiations. I’m sure at this point the leafs have offered $10.5x5 that’s an overpay but in the realm of ok. The marners believe they are word far more than they are worth

 

[supermann_98]

Yeah, there are two standards.

Nylander is a 61 point winger

Marner is a 94 point winger

You don't hold these guys to the same standards.

Marner was also a 60 point winger until he got to play a full season and PP1 opportunities with John Tavares, funny how that works

 

[MyBudJT]

Marner was also a 60 point winger until he got to play a full season and PP1 opportunities with John Tavares, funny how that works

This is too much, man. Making excuses for someone producing 'too much'. Thats a funny one.

People don't seem concerned that Nylander has only really been productive while playing on Matthews' wing....

 

[supermann_98]

This is too much, man. Making excuses for someone producing 'too much'. Thats a funny one.

People don't seem concerned that Nylander has only really been productive while playing on Matthews' wing....

You seem to want to skew the stats to make your point so why can’t I?

 

[MyBudJT]

You seem to want to skew the stats to make your point so why can’t I?

How did I skew stats?

 

[egd27]

slight problem with that theory, our 1st next year is spoken for

What does our first next year have to do with speaking to Panarin?

Yeah. They need to go hard after Panarin at that point if we get that offer sheet (he's rumored to sign in Florida though...).

Panarin @ 10-11M for 7 years + 2 1sts + is better value than Marner for 10.5 for 5 years.

If we can't get Panarin, then match Marner's contract and then trade him next year for a good young defenseman +.

Columbus probably won't have any offense at all after all their UFAs leave one by one. Werenski + for Marner or Jones straight up.

Panarin will likely be signed by someone before Marner would be given an offer sheet. The hypothetical offer sheet would most likely come from a team that didn't get Panarin.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Oh come on I sarcastically called him rich marner as a joke with another poster. Don’t try and use that as proof, very disingenuous man. In the same posts I’ve typed rich marner you will also see I typed childish nickname.

Yes we were messin' around about Me-arner. That said, I think you and Kiwi are touting a bit of a false equivalency here. First of all, Marner is getting vilified by many here, I feel unjustly, for asserting his rights as an RFA when nothing really has happened as of yet....except he hasn't signed. Second of all, most if not all of the Willie name calling happened after he had missed significant playing time during the season.

If the Marner situation gets there the vilification knob will be cranked to 11.

 

[shakermaker]

But how many guys are "career 90+ point guys"? Not even Sid has been a career 90+ point guy.

Sid has an 82 game avg of 105 points per season I think you can call Sid a "career 100 point guy"

 

[57 Years No Cup]

No reliable info but a lot of "insider" speculation. There is no point in getting too worked up about it when we really know so little. The real number will come out at some point and half the people on the board are probably going to be in disbelief. We tend to seize on the worst case scenario, and the stench of the Nylander negotiation has made a lot of us pretty touchy. Only rumors so far.

This is exactly it. Sums things up well.

 

[supermann_98]

How did I skew stats?

Pointing out Marner’s point totals in his 3rd year with Nylander’s point totals in his 2nd.

I assume you are a Leaf fan in addition to being Marner’s biggest fan, so hopefully you can see how Marner succeeded while Nylander struggled and why.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

At this point everyone is pretty riled up about a bunch of speculation. This is exactly what his agency is going for when they have dreger as a tool for their negotiations.

Going into this week, it makes sense to threaten the offer sheet, but I expect Dubas to go up a bit on an offer on tuesday night and give Marner a chance to take it. I dont think he actually has any intention of signing an offer sheet, but I'm sure his agent knows the best offer isn't on the table yet from the leafs. The moment they go into July and an offer sheet isn't signed, they risk a stalemate. I think the intention is to sign with the Leafs this week, maintain his good standing with the fans, and get the best offer they can without letting this get ugly.

I'm withholding judgement until then...

Stop being so reasonable!

 

[MyBudJT]

Pointing out Marner’s point totals in his 3rd year with Nylander’s point totals in his 2nd.

I assume you are a Leaf fan in addition to being Marner’s biggest fan, so hopefully you can see how Marner succeeded while Nylander struggled and why.

It was Nylander's 3rd year, dude. Both U22 seasons too. No scewing stats invovled at all.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Interesting how the narrative from the shills has changed slightly in the past few days. Before it was, "will be talking to other teams," and other language that suggested Marner's camp would be actively seeking out teams to see what they would offer. Now it has changed to "no doubt other teams will be contacting Marner's camp." I think they sense the anger building against them.

As for Dubas: wish he would man the eff up and get his elbows out. He always talks about stats, process, etc. But surely he knows the importance of personality and using psychology in negotiations. If he presents the way he does in interviews as an accommodating, kind-to-a-fault push-over (who unfortunately looks like he's eleven years old), he won't be doing himself any favours.

Dubas should dump the nerd glasses and grow a beard (if he can).

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Yup babcock is doing wonders in scouting in europe.
Just like anything who knows what you or any of us would have done last summer with marner. Its not easy racking up points in this league but you knew marner would have scored 94 pts? You knew even though tavares is a great player would have topped his career high in goals last year? You knew Matthew's would have gotten hurt off troubas hit to allow marner to lead the team in points on his contract year?

I had a feeling they would do well but didnt expect such high numbers right away.
I know I would not have offered 9M to someone that his hole career is 2 60 pts seasons. I'm not convinced he a career 90pt+ career guy, hope so but no it wasnt as easy as at least your saying.
Dubas could have done better, specially with nylander which led to the rest but the difference of what he should have got these contracts locked up for isnt huge.
Put it this way....if you were able to lock up marner for 9M last summer, what number do you think nylander would have negotiated for right after?

Most people said last year Marner would flourish on Tavares' wing and many suggested it was imperative to lock him up before the season or his salary demands would balloon. There were dozens of posts saying this and it has played out exactly as predicted. Whether anyone said 94 points is immaterial, the scenario is what was predicted.

 

[BallardEra]

Most people said last year Marner would flourish on Tavares' wing and many suggested it was imperative to lock him up before the season or his salary demands would balloon. There were dozens of posts saying this and it has played out exactly as predicted. Whether anyone said 94 points is immaterial, the scenario is what was predicted.

I think it was a mutually beneficial match between Tavares and Marner. It's no coincidence that Tavares also had a career year playing with Marner.