Salary Cap: Mitch Marner Contract Discussion Part VII | The Saga Continues

[The Hanging Jowl]

It was Nylander's 3rd year, dude. Both U22 seasons too. No scewing stats invovled at all.

So you don't think there were any extenuating circumstances that contributed to the difference in their respective performances this season?

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

I think it was a mutually beneficial match between Tavares and Marner. It's no coincidence that Tavares also had a career year playing with Marner.

+3 points over last season vs. a 25 point bump for Marner. 3.5% increase vs. 36.2% increase. Seems a little skewed to me towards one player benefiting more than the other.

 

[MyBudJT]

So you don't think there were any extenuating circumstances that contributed to the difference in their respective performances this season?

I'm not talking about Nylander this season.

Marner continued his 95 pt production from the second half of his sophmore season when he started to play with Kadri... so lets not pretend this season is an anomoly.

 

[BallardEra]

+3 points over last season vs. a 25 point bump for Marner. 3.5% increase vs. 36.2% increase. Seems a little skewed to me towards one player benefiting more than the other.

True but Marner had way more upside than Tavares at this stage of their careers as he was younger.

People expected Marner to break out at some point and he did.

 

[MyBudJT]

+3 points over last season vs. a 25 point bump for Marner. 3.5% increase vs. 36.2% increase. Seems a little skewed to me towards one player benefiting more than the other.

This kind of statistic shows nothing about who benefitted who more....

 

[Bomber0104]

+3 points over last season vs. a 25 point bump for Marner. 3.5% increase vs. 36.2% increase. Seems a little skewed to me towards one player benefiting more than the other.

You think Marner was a fully-developed player in his 2nd year?

No chance - oh i dunno - he may have improved his play?

Crazy I know but some players - particularly elite ones - improve exponentially in their first few seasons in the league.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

This kind of statistic shows nothing about who benefitted who more....

Definitively? No, of course not, just like you can;t definitively say Marner would have continued his "95 point pace" using the limited sample size of the last part of 2 seasons ago. It's kinda like the other poster said to you: you can't have it both ways with these stats.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

You think Marner was a fully-developed player in his 2nd year?

No chance - oh i dunno - he may have improved his play?

True but there's nothing linear about going from 61 points to 69 points between years and 2 (and he likely would have had about the same numbers had he not gotten mono in year 1) and then to a whopping 94 points in year 3. This is a strong indicator that an outside factor contributed. I wonder what the difference might have been and if dozens of people had predicted it last summer, hmmm...I'll get back to you.

 

[MyBudJT]

Definitively? No, of course not, just like you can;t definitively say Marner would have continued his "95 point pace" using the limited sample size of the last part of 2 seasons ago. It's kinda like the other poster said to you: you can't have it both ways with these stats.

33 games isn't a small sample size. To be honest, it makes more sense to use smaller sample sizes like that for 19, 20, 21 year old players whose development would be growing at a very high rate. April 2018 Marner was a completely different player than October 2017 Marner.

Again, I'm not scewing stats. I've been very clear in how I state them. Its up to others if they agree with the interpretation. But I'm transparent about it.

Also, all I stated previously was Nylnader was a 61 point player and Marner was a 94 point player. How is that scewing stats?

 

[MyBudJT]

True but there's nothing linear about going from 61 points to 69 points between years and 2 (and he likely would have had about the same numbers had he not gotten mono in year 1) and then to a whopping 94 points in year 3. This is a strong indicator that an outside factor contributed. I wonder what the difference might have been and if dozens of people had predicted it last summer, hmmm...I'll get back to you.

Again, the sample sizes you're looking at are too large to capture Marner's development.

 

[Caesium]

True but there's nothing linear about going from 61 points to 69 points between years and 2 (and he likely would have had about the same numbers had he not gotten mono in year 1) and then to a whopping 94 points in year 3. This is a strong indicator that an outside factor contributed. I wonder what the difference might have been and if dozens of people had predicted it last summer, hmmm...I'll get back to you.

Young players usually have a lot of growth in that third year. Let's look at JT's stats for his first three years. 54, 67, 81. Someone must have carried him there!

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

33 games isn't a small sample size. To be honest, it makes more sense to use smaller sample sizes like that for 19, 20, 21 year old players whose development would be growing at a very high rate. April 2018 Marner was a completely different player than October 2017 Marner.

Again, I'm not scewing stats. I've been very clear in how I state them. Its up to others if they agree with the interpretation. But I'm transparent about it.

Also, all I stated previously was Nylnader was a 61 point player and Marner was a 94 point player. How is that scewing stats?

Yes it is and yes you are. There is a FAR better statistical case to support my inference that JT had a large influence on Marner's breakout (which you seem to dismiss entirely) than your proposition that Marner was already destined to continue his pace from the end of the previous season (which you seem to accept as fact).

Call it skewing, call it bias, call it whatever you like but it's a thing.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Young players usually have a lot of growth in that third year. Let's look at JT's stats for his first three years. 54, 67, 81. Someone must have carried him there!

But that is actually linear progression. You could almost plot a straight line on a graph with those numbers. Marner's would look more like an IPCC global warming graph.

 

[BallardEra]

Young players usually have a lot of growth in that third year. Let's look at JT's stats for his first three years. 54, 67, 81. Someone must have carried him there!

Yep. Tavares needed Moulson that year to hit 81.

Or was it P.A Parenteau?

 

[Caesium]

But that is actually linear progression. You could almost plot a straight line on a graph with those numbers. Marner's would look more like an IPCC global warming graph.

Patrick Kane. 72, 70, 88.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Patrick Kane. 72, 70, 88.

Not as asymptotic as Marner's jump but a better example.

 

[Peasy]

So which team is he visiting first?

 

[Caesium]

Not as asymptotic as Marner's jump but a better example.

"Well it's not the exact numbers, doesn't count!"

You've already drawn a conclusion and won't accept anything to help change that, so there is no point in talking to you anymore.

 

[BallardEra]

So which team is he visiting first?

I don't think they visit any teams. I see it as all talk and part of the negotiation process.

 

[egd27]

It was Nylander's 3rd year, dude. Both U22 seasons too. No scewing stats invovled at all.

Maybe use Nylander's 4th season ?

 

[MyBudJT]

Yes it is and yes you are. There is a FAR better statistical case to support my inference that JT had a large influence on Marner's breakout (which you seem to dismiss entirely) than your proposition that Marner was already destined to continue his pace from the previous season (which you seem to accept as fact).

Call it skewing, call it bias, call it whatever you like but it's a thing.

I don't think you understand what scewing stats entails, or at the very least, we're discussing different definitinos of it. I'll break it down simply for you.

I am not stating Marner had a 95 point sophmore season. I stated that he had a 95 point sophmore season when playing with Kadri. To evaluate this statement, you must first select the games that Marner and Kadri played together. That total was 33. No more, no less. Otherwise, you'd be scewing statistics.

Now, when backing up my statement, I'm not just taking any 33 game sample size. I'm only selecting the 33 games that Marner and Kadri actually played together. Otherwise, you'd e scewing statistics.

These 33 games also coincided with the last 33 games of the season, where you would expect it to be a better predictor of future success than the first part of the season.

Listen, if you looked at the whole picture in regards to Marner's sophmore season, it would be very clear that he is a special player that was capable of reaching 90+ seasons. It should be a surprise to noone that he reached 94 points this season.

 

[Peasy]

I don't think they visit any teams. I see it as all talk and part of the negotiation process.

I hope he goes so he and his agent can get laughed at when no one is willing to give him 11m.

 

[ShaneFalco]

I don't think they visit any teams. I see it as all talk and part of the negotiation process.

Could be. His rep is taking a beating - is it all worth it ?

 

[Cor]

So which team is he visiting first?

RFA speaking period opens Wednesday so I guess we’ll find out lol

 

[BallardEra]

I hope he goes so he and his agent can get laughed at when no one is willing to give him 11m.

I just can't see it happening as they have everything to lose.

Fans are already turning on Mitch and something like this would be the last straw for many of them.