Salary Cap: Mitch Marner Contract Discussion Part VI | Marner Reportedly Turns Down 8 Year Term

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hector morrison

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I was a huge Kyle Dubas fan when he was promoted to GM, but he has proven grossly incompetent vis-a-vis retaining our young stars. These are RFAs ffs - we own them until they're 27. If they want to sit for a half decade and forego tens of millions of dollars, that's their prerogative. I hated that we caved to Nylander, and sure enough it's completely torpedoed subsequent negotiations. The timing was off, and Dubas simply failed to use the massive leverage he had at his disposal. What a debacle.
Are you suggesting that he teach the kids a lesson by letting them sit? Imagine the team that would be iced without those kids? I stopped watching years ago on a regular basis,until those kids showed up...Babs would likely quit,so that might be the silver lining,but the team would suck and the media would be unbearable,truly!
 

Shayne Corsi

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Also - to everyone questioning people for thinking that Marner has indeed refused a number in the ballpark of the OP, what else do you think is going on? If they were on the same page, a deal would have been made. And we wouldn't be in the same goddamn situation we were in with Nylander (who we eventually gave way too much money to). Marner saw Nylander and Matthews put the screws to us successfully - why wouldn't he do the same?
 

Divine

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Also - to everyone questioning people for thinking that Marner has indeed refused a number in the ballpark of the OP, what else do you think is going on? If they were on the same page, a deal would have been made. And we wouldn't be in the same goddamn situation we were in with Nylander (who we eventually gave way too much money to). Marner saw Nylander and Matthews put the screws to us successfully - why wouldn't he do the same?

Matthews is better than him.
Nylander got way less than him. Almost 40% less than he supposedly turned down.

Leafs can get 4 1st round picks. How many players in the league would you trade 4 1st round picks for? I'm sure the Leafs can flip it immediately for a great player at a lower cost.
 
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Shayne Corsi

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Are you suggesting that he teach the kids a lesson by letting them sit? Imagine the team that would be iced without those kids? I stopped watching years ago on a regular basis,until those kids showed up...Babs would likely quit,so that might be the silver lining,but the team would suck and the media would be unbearable,truly!

It has nothing at all to do with teaching anyone a "lesson." It's about making use of the leverage afforded to him by these players' RFA status and, in the process, making our cap situation tenable going forward. It's a business. Both sides understand this. No bottom feeder is giving Marner 12mm and losing 4 first round picks. He has no leverage. Let him sit.
 

hector morrison

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It has nothing at all to do with teaching anyone a "lesson." It's about making use of the leverage afforded to him by these players' RFA status and, in the process, making our cap situation tenable going forward. It's a business. Both sides understand this. No bottom feeder is giving Marner 12mm and losing 4 first round picks. He has no leverage. Let him sit.
I agree in regards to the leverage aspect,but it takes two to tango,blaming Dubas for the other party being greedy should not be used to blame Dubas. He did make Willy wait,that didn't turn out well for either party,maybe there is a lesson there that Willy can share with others. Not looking like he got overpaid by comparison to some recent signings! If he gets back to being a producing player,maybe Dubas looks good. But to let Matthews or Marner sit out a year or more would be the end of Dubas. Still need to ice a competitive hockey team and as I mentioned ,the T.O. media would make it a daily topic...not good for anyone.
 

Shayne Corsi

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I agree in regards to the leverage aspect,but it takes two to tango,blaming Dubas for the other party being greedy should not be used to blame Dubas. He did make Willy wait,that didn't turn out well for either party,maybe there is a lesson there that Willy can share with others. Not looking like he got overpaid by comparison to some recent signings! If he gets back to being a producing player,maybe Dubas looks good. But to let Matthews or Marner sit out a year or more would be the end of Dubas. Still need to ice a competitive hockey team and as I mentioned ,the T.O. media would make it a daily topic...not good for anyone.

We have plenty of offensive talent / depth and would almost certainly be a playoff team if Marner sits the season. The thing is, it's really really bad for Marner to sit the season. Much much worse than it is for us. The same is true of Nylander, who Dubas absolutely should have made sit rather than cave to last minute.
 
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Tmart335

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Hyman Matthews Nylander
Johnsson Tavares Kapanen
Moore Kadri Mikheyev
Engvall Gauthier Brown

We will be fine. Maybe its best if Marner sits out the year in our cap crunch year.


Best if Marner sits out? The guy is 22 and put up 26 goals and 68 assists. 52 of those assists were primary; only behind McDavid and kucherov.

I want Marner to settle for a reasonable contract as much as the next guy, but to suggest " its best" if marner sits out a year is foolish.

Guy plays PP, PK and is our most dangerous winger. Imagine a hawks fan said it would be best if patty kane sits out a year?
 

ponder

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This is why the Matthews contract is so awful, we gave him insanely player friendly $$ AND insanely player friendly term. All our other RFAs are gonna want a similar great deal. For Marner that means something like $11 mil, 5 years.

I hope Dubas negotiates better this time, if we give everyone 4-5 year deals for crazy money that'll make it extremely difficult to build a cup winner around this core. Not holding my breath though, Nylander and Matthews walked all over Dubas, I expect Marner, Kapanen and Johnsson to do the same. This feels a lot like that offseason Toews and Kane got nuts money out of Chicago and sank the team, except we haven't even won a cup yet :(
 

ponder

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I was a huge Kyle Dubas fan when he was promoted to GM, but he has proven grossly incompetent vis-a-vis retaining our young stars. These are RFAs ffs - we own them until they're 27. If they want to sit for a half decade and forego tens of millions of dollars, that's their prerogative. I hated that we caved to Nylander, and sure enough it's completely torpedoed subsequent negotiations. The timing was off, and Dubas simply failed to use the massive leverage he had at his disposal. What a debacle.
Agree VERY strongly. I was excited to see what Dubas could do as GM, but it's looking like a big mistake so far. He's getting destroyed in negotiations where he holds all the leverage, dude is just not ready to be a GM. We're wrecking the best young core we've had in decades while our rookie GM learns the ropes. Should've let Nylander sit the year, and then used the cred he gained there to get Matthews to sign something similar to the Eichel deal. What was the rush to make Matthews the 2nd highest cap hit in the entire league, on a super player friendly 5-year deal, as an RFA?!?!? Insanity.
 

TheMadHatTrick

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This is why the Matthews contract is so awful, we gave him insanely player friendly $$ AND insanely player friendly term. All our other RFAs are gonna want a similar great deal. For Marner that means something like $11 mil, 5 years.

I hope Dubas negotiates better this time, if we give everyone 4-5 year deals for crazy money that'll make it extremely difficult to build a cup winner around this core. Not holding my breath though, Nylander and Matthews walked all over Dubas, I expect Marner, Kapanen and Johnsson to do the same. This feels a lot like that offseason Toews and Kane got nuts money out of Chicago and sank the team, except we haven't even won a cup yet :(

Bingo.
 

Shayne Corsi

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Oct 17, 2017
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Agree VERY strongly. I was excited to see what Dubas could do as GM, but it's looking like a big mistake so far. He's getting destroyed in negotiations where he holds all the leverage, dude is just not ready to be a GM. We're wrecking the best young core we've had in decades while our rookie GM learns the ropes.

The bolded section more or less summarizes my position (and I actually just posted the same in the Dubas thread). It seems he simply wasn't groomed for long enough. As I mentioned in the other thread, there is some hope that he's finally coming around with respect to the Marner negotiations, but it may be too little too late. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
 

xxOCZMSxx

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Hey guys...the anger in here is getting to me...I can’t look through any more page... anyone care to summarize any legitimate rumours or leaks re: marner from the past day or two?

Thanks :)
 

indigobuffalo

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I don't see Marner signing that...he would be purposely trying to screw the Leafs and not make it any less obvious, and the Leafs would match that deal because he wants Matthews money, so 5 x $11.6 million is what Marner is looking at.

But he won’t get that in an offer sheet. If a team is going to go to 4x 1st compensation they’ll get 7 years not 5.
 

indigobuffalo

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Also - to everyone questioning people for thinking that Marner has indeed refused a number in the ballpark of the OP, what else do you think is going on? If they were on the same page, a deal would have been made. And we wouldn't be in the same goddamn situation we were in with Nylander (who we eventually gave way too much money to). Marner saw Nylander and Matthews put the screws to us successfully - why wouldn't he do the same?

Way too much money to Nylander?

Under the tightest of asses GM he’d have gotten $6.5M. No question.

If you think $6.9M is way more than $6.5M then we have different comprehension of the adjective ‘way’ in this context.
 

Shayne Corsi

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Way too much money to Nylander?

Under the tightest of asses GM he’d have gotten $6.5M. No question.

If you think $6.9M is way more than $6.5M then we have different comprehension of the adjective ‘way’ in this context.

For one, it was more or less 7mm, which is a ~7% overpay (and, incidentally, I think closer to 6mm would have been appropriate/achievable). Either way, this amount can be significant in the context of the cap crunch we're facing, hence my use of the word "way."

But the broader point I was making stands whether or not the word "way" happens to be the most felicitous adjective in this context. It's not only the amount of his contract that's problematic - it's the negotiation that preceded it that I hated at the time and hate even more in retrospect.
 
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indigobuffalo

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For one, it was more or less 7mm, which is a ~7% overpay (and, incidentally, I think closer to 6mm would have been appropriate/achievable). Either way, this amount can be significant in the context of the cap crunch we're facing, hence my use of the word "way."

But the broader point I was making stands whether or not the word "way" happens to be the most felicitous adjective in this context. It's not only the amount of his contract that's problematic - it's the negotiation that preceded it that I hated at the time and hate even more in retrospect.

Because they signed him in the 11th hour or because they let it get past training camp?

Either way, $6M tells me all I need to know.

G’day sir.
 

Shayne Corsi

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Oct 17, 2017
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Because they signed him in the 11th hour or because they let it get past training camp?

Either way, $6M tells me all I need to know.

G’day sir.

All of the above. And because they caved to his demands instead of leveraging his RFA status and making him sit for the season. Investing another half season of no Nylander was worth setting the tone for all of the RFA negotiations to come imo. And, again, you are sort of harping on an insignificant element of what I'm saying with respect to the precise number. Whether it was 6.2mm or 6.5mm that was the actual appropriate target, the difference was nonetheless meaningful in the context of fitting in the contracts of several impending RFAs.
 
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Sens

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Jan 7, 2016
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Agree VERY strongly. I was excited to see what Dubas could do as GM, but it's looking like a big mistake so far. He's getting destroyed in negotiations where he holds all the leverage, dude is just not ready to be a GM. We're wrecking the best young core we've had in decades while our rookie GM learns the ropes. Should've let Nylander sit the year, and then used the cred he gained there to get Matthews to sign something similar to the Eichel deal. What was the rush to make Matthews the 2nd highest cap hit in the entire league, on a super player friendly 5-year deal, as an RFA?!?!? Insanity.

So Shanahan plays no part in these negotiations?
 
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Gabriel426

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I think we just have to realize that these RFAs are all me first and you better paid me.... I think their mentality is that we get paid now(since we can’t choose to play anywhere we want), then hits UFA and sign for cheap for a few years with contender to win a Cup or two, then sign another huge deal with whichever team giving me the best offer and ride off to sunset.
It is not just Willie, Matthews and Marner, it is everyone of them, or these RFAs would have sign by now. As none of them are even close to a contract. Point might be the closest one since TB just moved money and if Point signed for 9mil, that’s the benchmark for the market but I doubt it.
 

indigobuffalo

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All of the above. And because they caved to his demands instead of leveraging his RFA status and making him sit for the season. Investing another half season of no Nylander was worth setting the tone for all of the RFA negotiations to come imo. And, again, you are sort of harping on an insignificant element of what I'm saying with respect to the precise number. Whether it was 6.2mm or 6.5mm that was the actual appropriate target, the difference was nonetheless meaningful in the context of fitting in the contracts of several impending RFAs.

What evidence do you have that sitting Nylander would have benefitted future negotiations with RFAs?

It has only happened once or twice in the NHL’s history.

What’s more likely to have happened is that Nylander would’ve sat, then asked for a trade in the summer, getting the Leafs a fraction of his worth on the market because he’s forcing their hand.

Then the rest of the RFAs go hard after offer sheets. They just drop negotiations with Toronto. If the Leafs match, they’re getting Matthews at $14M x 7.

But wait, in your head only positive outcomes are possible when using 20/20 hindsight vision so of course Dubas just had to play hardball and Nylander signs for $3.5M x 8 and then Matthews signs at $1M x 8 out of shear awe at the power wielded by Dubas.
 

Shayne Corsi

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Oct 17, 2017
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What evidence do you have that sitting Nylander would have benefitted future negotiations with RFAs?

It has only happened once or twice in the NHL’s history.

What’s more likely to have happened is that Nylander would’ve sat, then asked for a trade in the summer, getting the Leafs a fraction of his worth on the market because he’s forcing their hand.

Then the rest of the RFAs go hard after offer sheets. They just drop negotiations with Toronto. If the Leafs match, they’re getting Matthews at $14M x 7.

But wait, in your head only positive outcomes are possible when using 20/20 hindsight vision so of course Dubas just had to play hardball and Nylander signs for $3.5M x 8 and then Matthews signs at $1M x 8 out of shear awe at the power wielded by Dubas.

For one, the hostility is uncalled for. For another, you're being very disingenuous. You start by asking what evidence I have of the impact of playing hardball on future negotiations--okay, notwithstanding generic evidence, point granted--but then you follow up this reasonable question by positing an even more implausible scenario involving offer sheets (when was the last time one of those was signed?). And, to my previous point about generic evidence, we are never under any obligation to rush trading him for pennies on the dollar. Again, we have nearly all the leverage in this context. Do you know how damaging it is for an athlete--someone whose window to cash in is already so narrow--to sit out for a significant period of time before signing their first big contract? In my view, the damage of that eventuality to him greatly exceeds the damage of losing his services to the team. It's really as simple as that for me.

Finally, I never claimed that Dubas could or should have been expected to sign our players to obscenely low contracts, nor were my issues with his approach only on the basis of hindsight (if you read through my post history, you'll see that I always favoured playing hardball, for the reasons already stated--and the history of under market value RFA contracts that are signed in the NHL are pretty good evidence that this is the right approach; incidentally, perhaps the reason players so rarely sit out is because they almost always cave to a GM playing hardball). In any case, I can see that we don't agree, and I don't particularly like engaging in a discussion where sarcasm and condescension are supposed to be substitutes for a cogent argument.
 
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Yorkshire Leaf

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How do you figure? Ive already shown the math that Nylanders output at his career high translates to almost 11mm x 6 years for marner based on his points output. It is telling that no one wants to tackle the math.

If you look at points totals up to the point they signed/should sign, Marner’s contract should be $9.1m x 6 years, assuming a cap of $83m for 2019/20.

Up to signing:-
WN had 135 points in 185 games (0.73 ppg)
MM had 224 points in 241 games (0.92 ppg)

WN signed for 6.96m for 6 years (8.75% of cap)

Just using points MM should get 0.92/0.73 x 8.75% = 11%.

11% x $83m = $9.1m over 6 years.
 
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Nooodles

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Hey guys...the anger in here is getting to me...I can’t look through any more page... anyone care to summarize any legitimate rumours or leaks re: marner from the past day or two?

Thanks :)

Everyone believed the "My belief is.." tweets from "insiders" and now Marner is the next victim of Leafs fans.
 
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