Mitch Marner Continued II

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Saying Marner outpaced Ovie by stat picking is the same as saying Bunting is a better goal scorer than JT and MM combined bc he scored 2 goals in 4 games while JT and Marner had O goals. Or Reilly is a better playmaker than Marner b/c Reilly got 3 assists this season while Marner got like 1.
Or like somebody dismissing the absolute elite talent we have in Marner or thinking lesser players are better because of something something playoff goals something something PP goals in very specific small samples with no context.
 
Or like somebody dismissing the absolute elite talent we have in Marner or thinking lesser players are better because of something something playoff goals something something PP goals in very specific small samples with no context.
Are you talking to me? Bc I never dismiss Marner's talents. I just expect him and the rest of the Leafs to perform in playoffs.
I agree some here think Marner's is not elite, which is wrong. He is a great talent but like all players, there is always room for improvements. Such as Shaq with his free throws.
Like pretty much every Leafs, they just have not been performing in playoffs.
 
Thats just made it worst.

They are two very different players. Ovie is a much better playoff performer and player than any current Leafs. Saying Marner outpaced Ovie by stat picking is the same as saying Bunting is a better goal scorer than JT and MM combined bc he scored 2 goals in 4 games while JT and Marner had O goals. Or Reilly is a better playmaker than Marner b/c Reilly got 3 assists this season while Marner got like 1.

I agree, yet you see it constantly when people reference the 18 game goalless streak
 
No, I am saying Marner outpaced Ovie during that time.

I don't understand the obsession with using Marner's goal totals when he is a playmaker. Or using a specific time frame, discuss how he was scoring at a good pace in his first 14 games then?
Please take a second to clarify for me if you wouldn't mind..

Which sample of Marner's playoffs is better than Crosby and Ovechkin's sample?
 
I agree, yet you see it constantly when people reference the 18 game goalless streak
Well, thats the last three playoffs. For any top elite players, if they only score 1 goal in last three playoffs, thats not a good look at all.
 
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No, it isn't, the last three playoffs include 2 goals, still low.
Still not good. If AM or JT only score 2 goals for the next 20 games. Everyone will be wondering what is wrong with them. I dont see why that can't apply to Marner.
 
Nothing from 2011-12 to 2016-17 looks good.

60 - 21 - 19 - 40

Actually looks really similar to Marner's point totals.

Ovechkin really has had only a handful of amazing playoffs if you are going off of raw points.

So which years would consider that Ovechkin "choked" as you stated in the post I quoted?
 
These stats can be manipulated to show whatever you want them to show. I once saw two obsessed advanced stats guys face off. One was using advanced stats to show that Draisaitl was a beast that year, regardless of McDavid. The other used advanced stats to show that he was entirely dependent on McDavid. Both cases were equally strong. They just stat mined different stats to make their case. A layman would have been convinced by either one of them.

There are people here working overtime to stat mine advanced stats to try and rationalize our players unprecedented dramatic overpayments. It's a staggering amount of effort they put into it.

But no amount of advanced stat spin can alter RESULTS. It's actual RESULTS that matter. Not manipulation of statistics. And no amount of all your spin will change it.

It's not unlucky. It's not puck luck. It's not (lol) every goalie in the playoffs become vezina contenders.

It's our core overpaid players failing to get RESULTS.


The last 3 years:

3 years ago, Rask was Vezina level against everyone in the playoffs that year, not just us. Best keeper in the Playoffs. This isnt disputed. He was the MVP of his team in an ultimately losing effort in the finals to the Blues (and he was the better keeper in the finals too)

2 years ago, Korpisalo played way above his weight against both us and Tampa and it took an almost equally great performance from Vasy to beat him. When Korpisalo set the playoff save record that year against Tampa, Vasy beat him by setting the 17th best save record of all time (and the highest save total of his career) in the first win of a series of one goal games. Easily the MVP of his team and one of the stars of the playoffs.

Last year, Price was the Cinderella goaltender of the playoffs after an abysmal regular season and carried them to the finals. Price stood on his head against 4 of the best offensive teams in the league but ultimately his back broke in the finals against Tampa. Universally recognized as the MVP of his team and the only reas0n they even got out of the first round.

All three of these goalies would be Vezina finalists/winners for their respective playoffs and not just against the Leafs. This shouldn't be controversial.

I'm not manipulating anything here. Those are the facts. If YOU want to spin things to some universe where the Leafs didnt play against elite goaltending, thats on you man. The Leafs just managed to play against them first while having inferior goaltending themselves....every...single....series. Those are the results. I'm not manipulating stats like you are to try and convince others that the Leafs didnt play these MVP outliers....and not only that, the Leafs stars actually performed BETTER than all the other teams stars against this same goaltending and it was massive failures from depth players (whether it be lack of production or unforced giveaways), injuries and lack of clutch goaltending that ultimately did the Leafs in.

We can talk about secondary issues the poor finish on the chances we had keepers beat (way too many posts), a poor PP or how Dubas top heavy approach may have contributed to depth scoring not working but if you cant even acknowledge the goaltending differential between the teams, probably the biggest 8 ball to be behind, how can we even start the conversation? It's not hard to show how good Matthews/Marner have been the last couple of years simply because they are near the top of every advance stat list. It's not manipulation. Just Marner had the same amount of points in 7 games against the Habs last year as Stone, Point, Ehlers, Wheeler and Stamkos in 24 games combined while blowing them away defensively. Thats not spin. Thats end results against the same goalie in the same playoffs.

It's hard not to defend the guy when the irrational hate for him is so crazy around here. "Stat manipulation" indeed.
 
Or like somebody dismissing the absolute elite talent we have in Marner or thinking lesser players are better because of something something playoff goals something something PP goals in very specific small samples with no context.

One of the members of the Hail Dubas club suggested Ovechkin was a playoff choker. He is being corrected, that is all. (context)

You don't consider Ovechkin a playoff choker, do you?
 
I've always defended Ovi against the choker label. He's always been a gamebreaking star that just had his share of playoff difficulties from running into the other stars of the league far too early to having goaltending/depth issues himself.

One of the big problems early with Ovi was "controller disconnect" Ovi though, even in his prime.

His 2012+2013 playoffs were pretty brutal examples of this and really helped lead to his unfair choker rep. Marner was leaps and bounds better the last two playoffs and I doubt Marner will ever have two playoffs in a row as bad as those two from Ovi. Even if you were the force of nature that was prime Ovi, still gotta play D sometimes man.
 
I am not doing your work, pick any arbitrary number like everyone is doing with Marner's goalless streak, pick one game for all I care about, it is just as valid as the argument against Marner.
LOL really now?

I'm just gonna go ahead and assume you just completely made shit up. Congrats pal.
 
@Notsince67 is right. You guys are setting him up to be the next Thornton. It’s not ok we are here for one goal only, to win the cup

anything less is a failure with this core.


How so? Since they have never won a round, how are expectations that they win a cup?,

Who made up these expectations?

I agree it should be their goal, but annointing them as cup contenders was a media move that was called way too early
 
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I’m not sure how much I like Matthews but you could see you last night he is heads and tails above Junior mint not even in the same league. They may get paid close to the same but you could see how dominating Matthews can be
 
The last 3 years:

3 years ago, Rask was Vezina level against everyone in the playoffs that year, not just us. Best keeper in the Playoffs. This isnt disputed. He was the MVP of his team in an ultimately losing effort in the finals to the Blues (and he was the better keeper in the finals too)

2 years ago, Korpisalo played way above his weight against both us and Tampa and it took an almost equally great performance from Vasy to beat him. When Korpisalo set the playoff save record that year against Tampa, Vasy beat him by setting the 17th best save record of all time (and the highest save total of his career) in the first win of a series of one goal games. Easily the MVP of his team and one of the stars of the playoffs.

Last year, Price was the Cinderella goaltender of the playoffs after an abysmal regular season and carried them to the finals. Price stood on his head against 4 of the best offensive teams in the league but ultimately his back broke in the finals against Tampa. Universally recognized as the MVP of his team and the only reas0n they even got out of the first round.

All three of these goalies would be Vezina finalists/winners for their respective playoffs and not just against the Leafs. This shouldn't be controversial.

I'm not manipulating anything here. Those are the facts. If YOU want to spin things to some universe where the Leafs didnt play against elite goaltending, thats on you man. The Leafs just managed to play against them first while having inferior goaltending themselves....every...single....series. Those are the results. I'm not manipulating stats like you are to try and convince others that the Leafs didnt play these MVP outliers....and not only that, the Leafs stars actually performed BETTER than all the other teams stars against this same goaltending and it was massive failures from depth players (whether it be lack of production or unforced giveaways), injuries and lack of clutch goaltending that ultimately did the Leafs in.

We can talk about secondary issues the poor finish on the chances we had keepers beat (way too many posts), a poor PP or how Dubas top heavy approach may have contributed to depth scoring not working but if you cant even acknowledge the goaltending differential between the teams, probably the biggest 8 ball to be behind, how can we even start the conversation? It's not hard to show how good Matthews/Marner have been the last couple of years simply because they are near the top of every advance stat list. It's not manipulation. Just Marner had the same amount of points in 7 games against the Habs last year as Stone, Point, Ehlers, Wheeler and Stamkos in 24 games combined while blowing them away defensively. Thats not spin. Thats end results against the same goalie in the same playoffs.

It's hard not to defend the guy when the irrational hate for him is so crazy around here. "Stat manipulation" indeed.
I know what you are doing and I agree with a lot of it, but Marner and the rest of the Leafs just need to be better. Thats no denying that, they really were not good. Any and every Cup Winning teams always end up beating insane goaltending on their way of their Cup runs. Rask outplayed Crawford(can't believe it was almost 10 years ago), but the Hawks collectively found ways to beat Rask. Same with TB over the last two years. Same with Blues three years ago or Caps or Pens.... I don't think any teams should take comfort in, we got beaten by the Champs or Finalists in the first round or else we would have make it into the 2nd round....

The goal is not to win a round, it is to win the Cup.

The way the Leafs been playing the last two playoffs, I really don't see them winning 4 rounds.
I don't think there is ONE or TWO factors but more to do with a lot of little things that can be improve. They have the talents, they have the defence, they have goaltending...but to me they are at the stage where they think doing my best is enough, rather than my best is not enough and need to be better. To me thats the difference between Champion DNA/Clutch/killer instinct Vs losing.
I hope their mentality will change this year and finally get on a run.
 
The last 3 years:

3 years ago, Rask was Vezina level against everyone in the playoffs that year, not just us. Best keeper in the Playoffs. This isnt disputed. He was the MVP of his team in an ultimately losing effort in the finals to the Blues (and he was the better keeper in the finals too)

2 years ago, Korpisalo played way above his weight against both us and Tampa and it took an almost equally great performance from Vasy to beat him. When Korpisalo set the playoff save record that year against Tampa, Vasy beat him by setting the 17th best save record of all time (and the highest save total of his career) in the first win of a series of one goal games. Easily the MVP of his team and one of the stars of the playoffs.

Last year, Price was the Cinderella goaltender of the playoffs after an abysmal regular season and carried them to the finals. Price stood on his head against 4 of the best offensive teams in the league but ultimately his back broke in the finals against Tampa. Universally recognized as the MVP of his team and the only reas0n they even got out of the first round.

All three of these goalies would be Vezina finalists/winners for their respective playoffs and not just against the Leafs. This shouldn't be controversial.

I'm not manipulating anything here. Those are the facts. If YOU want to spin things to some universe where the Leafs didnt play against elite goaltending, thats on you man. The Leafs just managed to play against them first while having inferior goaltending themselves....every...single....series. Those are the results. I'm not manipulating stats like you are to try and convince others that the Leafs didnt play these MVP outliers....and not only that, the Leafs stars actually performed BETTER than all the other teams stars against this same goaltending and it was massive failures from depth players (whether it be lack of production or unforced giveaways), injuries and lack of clutch goaltending that ultimately did the Leafs in.

We can talk about secondary issues the poor finish on the chances we had keepers beat (way too many posts), a poor PP or how Dubas top heavy approach may have contributed to depth scoring not working but if you cant even acknowledge the goaltending differential between the teams, probably the biggest 8 ball to be behind, how can we even start the conversation? It's not hard to show how good Matthews/Marner have been the last couple of years simply because they are near the top of every advance stat list. It's not manipulation. Just Marner had the same amount of points in 7 games against the Habs last year as Stone, Point, Ehlers, Wheeler and Stamkos in 24 games combined while blowing them away defensively. Thats not spin. Thats end results against the same goalie in the same playoffs.

It's hard not to defend the guy when the irrational hate for him is so crazy around here. "Stat manipulation" indeed.
We've gotten elite numbers as well from our goalies the past three years. Had the leafs won the series the arguments your making right now would be used by Boston/CBJ/MTL fans

2021 did implode in the final 3 games so I can see your argument a bit but even than we lost those games due to bad errors by Gally, 2 by Sandin, a 1 by dermott from defensive perspective and then from an offensive perspective we didn't get enough offense in games 5-7 with 6 goals in the three games

In 2019 especially though, Andersen was incredible up until game 7. His save% was higher or right bout equal to Rask's and they were both having a great series. Andersen still finished with a strong .922 despite the game 7 where he let 3 goals of which 2 were poor. In that game we didn't give any goal support with JT having the only goal in the game, which was a weak wrist shot which Rask misjudged. Both goalies came into the game playing elite witb both the leafs and Bruins having gotten stone walled and having to figure out how to deliver against excellent goaltending.

The leafs failed to score, the Bruins didn't. That was the best leafs team of the dubas era and it came down to the offensive stars + depth not delivering in the final game of the series along with Andersen letting 1 goal more than he should have let in (the kerala goal when it was 2-1). The leafs didn't come out strong in this game and a slow start in a do or die game/elimination wasn't a one off but became a common occurrence over the next 2 years

CBJ, once again Andersen came into game 5 with .940%+ meaning he was great and doing his job. Game 5 leafs can't bury anything with us flat put choking multiple easy goals (the JT post being the most painful one).

People get mad at Andersen for the 2nd goal scored by Foudy which was shit but really it didn't matter as the leafs couldn't muster a goal in the remainder of the game with us being shut out. Andersen finished with a .936 which ordinarily is super elite but obviously with the Jackets being an easy team to defense and hard to score on, it's not as great

The leafs the past 3 years have gotten good enough goal tending to win a series. They just haven't closed on out yet. The offense hasn't shown up with us having 7 goals in 5 games ( game 7 2019, game 5 2020, and games 5-7 2021).

If the leafs win any/all of those series we would see Andersen+Campbell's series being regarded as elite and as having outplayed Rask/Korpisalo/Price.

The only reason those guys are remembered as being better than our guys is due to winning the deciding game where they made some good saves but also got 18 goals support to our 7 (game 7 2019, game 5 2020, and game 5-7 2021).

4 of those were empty nets but still, with how poor our offense was in these games, we can't simply pretend that Rask/Korpisalo/Price shut us down and eliminated us. We didn't produce on them despite the chances being there.

For this to happen 3 times in a row shows that we didn't just run into clutch goaltending. There was failure on the offense + unclutch leafs goaltending + good goaltending from the guys you mentioned
 
You don't consider Ovechkin a playoff choker, do you?
No, I don't consider Ovechkin a "playoff choker", despite the fact that he has a number of playoff series with lesser production. Looking exclusively at those lesser production samples with no context would be a pretty bad way to evaluate him as a player.
 
Great post, I think you're on to something. I don't know how to quantify it so I can't prove it but I've felt for some time now that the goalies that dummy us in the playoffs aren't playing anywhere near as good as the numbers suggest. Of course anytime I say so people come back with the eye test sucks etc. so what can I say? Yeah the eye test is flawed, no doubt about that but I wish more people realized that there are just as many problems with stats.
The eye test is the best way to evaluate a game. With advanced stats, you gotta compile a helluva lot of "smaller" stats and prove a helluva lot of work just to get anywhere near the eye test... and you still don't get a full picture.

and as far as Marner goes, is he playing bad? not at all (imo don't attack) we just need more time and mo re chemistry. the points will come.
 
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