Mitch Marner Continued II

[Gary Nylund]

Campbell wasn't great in Games 5-7. He was great in Games 1-4. Although Andersen certainly was not one of our best players in the CBJ series... Not our only issue, but certainly one of our worst players.

I agree about Marner though, and I think he is looked much of the same in the first four games of this season offensively. Just not quite as sharp as he should be.

Agree to disagree I guess. SV% is a great stat, you could order goalies by that one stat and it would come pretty close to an accurate ranking (unlike sorting by points for example). Andersen's SV% tells the story IMO, sure he let in a few softies but he also made many tough saves so overall, yeah he was pretty good. The rest of the team as a whole, not so much. As a matter of fact we kind of sucked against CLB.

I'll agree he had bad puck luck, but he also lead the Leafs in virtually every other statistic for forwards, takeaways, blocked shots, hits, I thought he was really effective even if he struggled to score.

I just find a lot of fans check the scoreboard after the game to see who played well and who didn't.

For example, I've seen everyone saying Marner played terrible last night when I thought he had a really effective game and set up a lot of nice scoring chances.

FWIW, I thought he was good last night. I just can't get excited about how he plays this season, good or bad. I will judge his season about 90% based on how he does in the playoffs.

I think some people just go oh playoffs are small sample size so we should focus more on the regular season. What they don't get IMHO is that more than any other sport, the NHL becomes a different game the minute the playoffs start and it's not clear at all (at least not to me) that Marner's game can be counted on to be anywhere near as effective in the playoffs as it is during the regular season. That my friend is the elephant in the room and is the reason that I would have been very interested to see what we could obtain in a trade for him this summer.

 

[17 Clark]

Agree to disagree I guess. SV% is a great stat, you could order goalies by that one stat and it would come pretty close to an accurate ranking (unlike sorting by points for example). Andersen's SV% tells the story IMO, sure he let in a few softies but he also made many tough saves so overall, yeah he was pretty good. The rest of the team as a whole, not so much. As a matter of fact we kind of sucked against CLB.



FWIW, I thought he was good last night. I just can't get excited about how he plays this season, good or bad. I will judge his season about 90% based on how he does in the playoffs.

I think some people just go oh playoffs are small sample size so we should focus more on the regular season. What they don't get IMHO is that more than any other sport, the NHL becomes a different game the minute the playoffs start and it's not clear at all (at least not to me) that Marner's game can be counted on to be anywhere near as effective in the playoffs as it is during the regular season. That my friend is the elephant in the room and is the reason that I would have been very interested to see what we could obtain in a trade for him this summer.

Has Mitch mariner Played the season ? Or are we going to go with he’s hurt

 

[socko]

Marner's hold as the 2nd best player on the team is very tenuous. It sure looks like Willy is going to pass him. Willy is improving at a rapid rate. This year's Nylander looks better than last year's Nylander who looked better than the year before. If his ice time gets kicked up like it should, he's going to close the gap on the points too. We better start thinking about how we're going to pay both Willy and Auston on their next deals. Willy is becoming a must keep IMO.

 

[notbias]

Agree to disagree I guess. SV% is a great stat, you could order goalies by that one stat and it would come pretty close to an accurate ranking (unlike sorting by points for example). Andersen's SV% tells the story IMO, sure he let in a few softies but he also made many tough saves so overall, yeah he was pretty good. The rest of the team as a whole, not so much. As a matter of fact we kind of sucked against CLB.



FWIW, I thought he was good last night. I just can't get excited about how he plays this season, good or bad. I will judge his season about 90% based on how he does in the playoffs.

I think some people just go oh playoffs are small sample size so we should focus more on the regular season. What they don't get IMHO is that more than any other sport, the NHL becomes a different game the minute the playoffs start and it's not clear at all (at least not to me) that Marner's game can be counted on to be anywhere near as effective in the playoffs as it is during the regular season. That my friend is the elephant in the room and is the reason that I would have been very interested to see what we could obtain in a trade for him this summer.

He has been our most effective forward in past series though, so it isn't like he hasn't proven he can do it... sample size is always going to be issue series to series, as long as a player can drive the play, I give them the benefit of the doubt that they can turn it around, Marner may end up with 4 goals in a 4 game sweep but shot 100%, I am not going to think that this is the new normal for Marner.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Two thoughts. I thought the Rangers game was a great effort by the Leafs from an eye test point of view in addition to the numbers we saw accompanying the action. I also thought the Leafs poured it on vs Montreal in Game 6 OT, but have some nagging feeling that they weren’t quite as in control as it looked or the shot count would indicate.

I’ve been tracking along their cycle game and one of my working theories is teams are finding ways to push them to weird angles and forcing them to take shots with odd body positioning. They maintain zone time and get their shot counts but the looks they get and the rebound chances there are maybe not ideal because there are always bodies in between boxing them out or they’re not facing the net on the scramble.

Just want to note that and to see it we run into a suspicious number of high shot, low scoring games where we get “goalied”.

Great post, I think you're on to something. I don't know how to quantify it so I can't prove it but I've felt for some time now that the goalies that dummy us in the playoffs aren't playing anywhere near as good as the numbers suggest. Of course anytime I say so people come back with the eye test sucks etc. so what can I say? Yeah the eye test is flawed, no doubt about that but I wish more people realized that there are just as many problems with stats.

 

[notbias]

Two thoughts. I thought the Rangers game was a great effort by the Leafs from an eye test point of view in addition to the numbers we saw accompanying the action. I also thought the Leafs poured it on vs Montreal in Game 6 OT, but have some nagging feeling that they weren’t quite as in control as it looked or the shot count would indicate.

I’ve been tracking along their cycle game and one of my working theories is teams are finding ways to push them to weird angles and forcing them to take shots with odd body positioning. They maintain zone time and get their shot counts but the looks they get and the rebound chances there are maybe not ideal because there are always bodies in between boxing them out or they’re not facing the net on the scramble.

Just want to note that and to see it we run into a suspicious number of high shot, low scoring games where we get “goalied”.

We have only been "goalied" in really small sample sizes so I am not too concerned right now, we rank higher in the league for G/GP than we do for S/GP, so to me that tells me that isn't the case regularly. I don't know how people can argue Price didn't play amazing last year, or the Columbus duo the year before, we had really good quality chances.

There is for sure a mental aspect to our playoff runs, I will say that 100%, but it isn't like we get bad looks in the playoffs.

Also, Matthews alone hit 4 posts last series I believe, just something to think about, this may be a product of him "trying" too hard because he hasn't had great puck luck.

If you want to, check out a Price highlight from last years playoffs, the only ones I found before were over half the Leafs and they played 3 other series, he truly was great in our series.

 

[Gary Nylund]

He has been our most effective forward in past series though, so it isn't like he hasn't proven he can do it... sample size is always going to be issue series to series, as long as a player can drive the play, I give them the benefit of the doubt that they can turn it around, Marner may end up with 4 goals in a 4 game sweep but shot 100%, I am not going to think that this is the new normal for Marner.

I guess we all have to hope they can turn it around. As far as the new normal goes, man that's so hard to predict. Three poor playoffs in a row, based on making the playoffs 15 times in a career that's a big 20% chunk of his lifetime stats. Like say he plays great in the next playoffs, hard to be sure that that will be the new normal.

 

[123offtheglass]

Marner's hold as the 2nd best player on the team is very tenuous. It sure looks like Willy is going to pass him. Willy is improving at a rapid rate. This year's Nylander looks better than last year's Nylander who looked better than the year before. If his ice time gets kicked up like it should, he's going to close the gap on the points too. We better start thinking about how we're going to pay both Willy and Auston on their next deals. Willy is becoming a must keep IMO.

It's funny how guys progress at different rates & at different times. Marner had his breakout year in 2018-2019, this looks like it's going to be Willy's year.

Years ago it wasn't unrealistic to think Nylander would become the better player. I do think Marner will be the better player, but it wouldn't shock me if Willie starts to carry the torch at times; watching the Penguins Malkin had his stretches over Crosby.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Marner continues to average 21min per game.

Matthews and Marner should be averaging 21min per game heading into the playoffs.

Looks like Keefe is over using these guys again.

 

[notbias]

I guess we all have to hope they can turn it around. As far as the new normal goes, man that's so hard to predict. Three poor playoffs in a row, based on making the playoffs 15 times in a career that's a big 20% chunk of his lifetime stats. Like say he plays great in the next playoffs, hard to be sure that that will be the new normal.

Ovechkin was a playoff choker until he wasn't. Hockey is such an unpredictable sport (part of the reason it is so fun to watch), Marner's performance will change yearly I am sure. The problem with Marner too is because he is not a physical player when things don't go well offensively, people just assume he is playing terribly (he didn't play well last series), he is really good defensively usually, it is just mostly stick work.

 

[Stephen]

Great post, I think you're on to something. I don't know how to quantify it so I can't prove it but I've felt for some time now that the goalies that dummy us in the playoffs aren't playing anywhere near as good as the numbers suggest. Of course anytime I say so people come back with the eye test sucks etc. so what can I say? Yeah the eye test is flawed, no doubt about that but I wish more people realized that there are just as many problems with stats.

I think I’d need a white board and some better tools to be able to describe what I’m seeing. I think there’s a lot of collapsing to the slot and letting the Leafs cycle on the perimeter with a hand off of man to man coverage. But we need Matthews to kind of get open like a Stamkos fading out and a facilitator in Marner who can pull the box apart, open up a seam and find his guy. The body positioning and spacing is all jammed up and I think they are playing into someone else’s game plan.

 

[notbias]

Marner continues to average 21min per game.

Matthews and Marner should be averaging 21min per game heading into the playoffs.

Looks like Keefe is over using these guys again.

Marner used to play 30+ in Jr. if he can handle it, why not let him? We have a sports science division for a reason, and if I am not mistaken, these guys have sensors all over their gear to measure how effectively they are moving and if it is indicating that they are tired.

 

[socko]

Stamkos has a lot of shooters with him: Point and Kucherov both are great shooters. Even Hedman from the point is somewhat dangerous. Teams that play the Leafs primarily worry about Matthews.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Ovechkin was a playoff choker until he wasn't. Hockey is such an unpredictable sport (part of the reason it is so fun to watch), Marner's performance will change yearly I am sure. The problem with Marner too is because he is not a physical player when things don't go well offensively, people just assume he is playing terribly (he didn't play well last series), he is really good defensively usually, it is just mostly stick work.

Marner to this point in his career has had 5 cracks at the playoffs. I just had a look at the first 5 years for these players.

Marner: 32 games, 20 points.
Ovechkin: 51 games, 59 points.

59 points in 51 games doesn't say playoff choker to me. 20 points in 32 games though, hmm. That sample size isn't even that small any more.

 

[notbias]

Marner to this point in his career has had 5 cracks at the playoffs. I just had a look at the first 5 years for these players.

Marner: 32 games, 20 points.
Ovechkin: 51 games, 59 points.

59 points in 51 games doesn't say playoff choker to me. 20 points in 32 games though, hmm. That sample size isn't even that small any more.

I meant his team, had never looked at Ovi's individual stats, but there was a narrative around him because he was the leader of his team, all offense, no defense, can't win in the playoffs etc...

Marner's stats aren't great in the playoffs, I am fine saying that, I am just not fine writing him off after 32 games.

Also, not sure what teams Ovi had to play, but Toronto has exclusively matched up against very good defensive teams (except for maybe Washington, can't remember).

Again, Marner has had good and bad series, I think he has the ability to be our best playoff performer as he has proven in the past.

 

[Zybalto]

Bolded 1:
He more or less earned his contract during the regular season but fell off a cliff in the playoffs.

Bolded 2:
Um what? Our goalie let in one bad goal in 7 games and just like the CLB series, our goalie was one of our best players. Sorry but you're not making any sense here.

Bolded3:
It's two, and that's a lot.

First of all, our goalie was the most unclutch goalie in the playoffs despite having arguably the best D of the playoffs in front of him.

Stats for Jack the final 3 games:

Shots against/60: 25.71
xGA/60: 1.84
GAA: 2.71
Save%: .892
High Danger Save%: .682 (.773 high danger save% overall, worst of the playoffs)


Expanding it out and looking at all goalkeepers:

Top 5 hero goalies (minimum 4 games played) for high danger save% last playoffs:

1. Vasy: .894 (insanely good)
2. Fleury: .873
3. Sorokin: .863
4. Price: .851 (.873 against the Leafs)
5. Helle: .838

Hey look, it's the final 4 on top.

Worst 5 (anti-clutch goalies):
1. Campbell: .773
2. Binnington: .781
3. Jarry: .796
4. Nedeljkovic: .803
5. Grubauer: .812

Compare this with how busy each goaltender was in this area:

Most high danger shots faced/60:
1. Helle (familiar territory for Helle)
2. Vasy (Combined with his save% is just pure brilliance)
3. Price (Insane turnaround from the regular season overall. No doubter team MVP )
4. Binnington
5. Saros

Fewest High Danger shots faced/60:
1. Grubauer
2. Campbell
3. Talbot
4. Rask
5. Smith

Campbell almost pulled off the feat of having the fewest tough shots with the fewest saves on them. Bravo.

I like Jack but he wasnt great just because he was mostly making all the routine saves the great team D in front of him was providing. The Leafs were far the better team but paid for any mistakes they made while the Habs were getting run over but had a wall in the back. It's also bad enough that Campbell was so anti-clutch but then he also gives up that ultimate softie to start the game 7 scoring (also the only goal the Matthews/Marner combo gave up 5v5). Just another series the Leafs win just by switching the goalies.

Marner/Matthews may have only scored a total of 9 points in the series (and 19 the last two playoffs) but their two-way game has been so dominant, it's more than made up for it when looking at the overall picture. They absolutely crushed Danault (leading to the breakup of one of the best lines in the league) and Price made some truly incredible saves on both Matthews and Marner in the series. I'm not sure why Matthews hit so many posts (was it 5? 7?) in the series or how much it had to do with his wrist but it had very little to do with run of play.

I know you hate it but xGF% ranking of all 183 players with over 200 5v5 minutes played the last 2 playoffs:

1. Mitch Marner

You dont get that sort of ranking if your play fell off a cliff. It's impossible.

We can talk the PP which was dysfunctional both heading into and during the playoffs (The Leafs only hold a slight special teams advantage here over the two playoffs and that should be a lot higher) or injuries (the worst of any playoff team) or goaltending (both in our net and the fact the opposition goaltending has been arguably the best the last 3 years) or depth player production (the worst-ranked points producer in the playoffs over the last two years is named Mikheyev)but talking about Marner is to not talk about the real issues in the playoffs....and if thats true, even that 2 million number (small as it is) looks to be an exaggeration.

Cheers.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I meant his team, had never looked at Ovi's individual stats, but there was a narrative around him because he was the leader of his team, all offense, no defense, can't win in the playoffs etc...

Marner's stats aren't great in the playoffs, I am fine saying that, I am just not fine writing him off after 32 games.

Also, not sure what teams Ovi had to play, but Toronto has exclusively matched up against very good defensive teams (except for maybe Washington, can't remember).

Again, Marner has had good and bad series, I think he has the ability to be our best playoff performer as he has proven in the past.

Narrative was around the team, not Ovi. Agreed. I agree with the rest I guess but I have to admit, I'm a bit tired of hearing this logic about WSH. Look Ma we lost again, we're still following in WSH footsteps, how awesome is that! I don't care what WSH did, time to win a series FFS.

First of all, our goalie was the most unclutch goalie in the playoffs despite having arguably the best D of the playoffs in front of him.

Stats for Jack the final 3 games:

Shots against/60: 25.71
xGA/60: 1.84
GAA: 2.71
Save%: .892
High Danger Save%: .682 (.773 high danger save% overall, worst of the playoffs)


Expanding it out and looking at all goalkeepers:

Top 5 hero goalies (minimum 4 games played) for high danger save% last playoffs:

1. Vasy: .894 (insanely good)
2. Fleury: .873
3. Sorokin: .863
4. Price: .851 (.873 against the Leafs)
5. Helle: .838

Hey look, it's the final 4 on top.

Worst 5 (anti-clutch goalies):
1. Campbell: .773
2. Binnington: .781
3. Jarry: .796
4. Nedeljkovic: .803
5. Grubauer: .812

Compare this with how busy each goaltender was in this area:

Most high danger shots faced/60:
1. Helle (familiar territory for Helle)
2. Vasy (Combined with his save% is just pure brilliance)
3. Price (Insane turnaround from the regular season overall. No doubter team MVP )
4. Binnington
5. Saros

Fewest High Danger shots faced/60:
1. Grubauer
2. Campbell
3. Talbot
4. Rask
5. Smith

Campbell almost pulled off the feat of having the fewest tough shots with the fewest saves on them. Bravo.

I like Jack but he wasnt great just because he was mostly making all the routine saves the great team D in front of him was providing. The Leafs were far the better team but paid for any mistakes they made while the Habs were getting run over but had a wall in the back. It's also bad enough that Campbell was so anti-clutch but then he also gives up that ultimate softie to start the game 7 scoring (also the only goal the Matthews/Marner combo gave up 5v5). Just another series the Leafs win just by switching the goalies.

Marner/Matthews may have only scored a total of 9 points in the series (and 19 the last two playoffs) but their two-way game has been so dominant, it's more than made up for it when looking at the overall picture. They absolutely crushed Danault (leading to the breakup of one of the best lines in the league) and Price made some truly incredible saves on both Matthews and Marner in the series. I'm not sure why Matthews hit so many posts (was it 5? 7?) in the series or how much it had to do with his wrist but it had very little to do with run of play.

I know you hate it but xGF% ranking of all 183 players with over 200 5v5 minutes played the last 2 playoffs:

1. Mitch Marner

You dont get that sort of ranking if your play fell off a cliff. It's impossible.

We can talk the PP which was dysfunctional both heading into and during the playoffs (The Leafs only hold a slight special teams advantage here over the two playoffs and that should be a lot higher) or injuries (the worst of any playoff team) or goaltending (both in our net and the fact the opposition goaltending has been arguably the best the last 3 years) or depth player production (the worst-ranked points producer in the playoffs over the last two years is named Mikheyev)but talking about Marner is to not talk about the real issues in the playoffs....and if thats true, even that 2 million number (small as it is) looks to be an exaggeration.

Cheers.

I don't agree with all this but you do make some good points. I'll leave it at that as I don't have the energy to do a deep dive into stats the way you do. And while I don't hate stats at all, it's true that I don't put as much faith in them as you do. There was an excellent post a few years ago on the main boards that made the case that advanced stats should not be used to judge individual players. He made a really good case too, I wish I had bookmarked it.

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

I can't take anyone serious who thinks Matthews was not good in the Habs series.

Matthews was great games 1-4. Games 5,6, and 7 he had ok to meh performances.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I just had a look at the first 5 years for these players.
Marner: 32 games, 20 points.

You apparently didn't look very hard, because this is incorrect. He has 25 points (team lead) against some of the best defensive teams in the league and some of the best playoff goaltending performances of the past half-decade, as a 19-23 year old.

 

[Zybalto]

Matthews was great games 1-4. Games 5,6, and 7 he had ok to meh performances.

Game 7, scoring chances were 18-3 for the Leafs with Matthews on the ice and 11-6 Habs when he was on the bench.

 

[TMLAM34]

Marner has looked pretty good these past two games. There’s been chances, just nothing him or his line mates can bury. Hopefully things start going in though cause through 4 games to only have 1 assist and get paid 11 million, that simple isn’t good enough.

 

[ORRFForever]

Ovechkin was a playoff choker until he wasn't.

O.V.'s playoff play/stats were terrific. It was everyone around him who choked.

 

[Zybalto]

I don't agree with all this but you do make some good points. I'll leave it at that as I don't have the energy to do a deep dive into stats the way you do. And while I don't hate stats at all, it's true that I don't put as much faith in them as you do. There was an excellent post a few years ago on the main boards that made the case that advanced stats should not be used to judge individual players. He made a really good case too, I wish I had bookmarked it.

There are certainly strikes against advanced stats that statisticians themselves try to correct to be sure. Things like REL stats (to combat being the product of a good team) and looking at the quality of comp and quality of teammate in concert with corsi/xG/etc. I think you have to look at everything really. It also depends on the advanced stats as well.

There are stats like "icorsi" and "iscf" that try to isolate the individual when it comes to advanced stats as to, again, not be the product of a team.

The fact that Marner is elite in almost everything is a good thing. Let's see how the season plays out though. I think the Leafs look like absolute killers with Matthews back and hopefully goaltending works out this year. Both Campbell and Mrazek are capable of going on runs, just hoping they do it in the playoffs.

 

[Zybalto]

O.V.'s playoff play/stats were terrific. It was everyone around him who choked.

Running into prime Crosby/Malkin every year didnt help either.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Matty was gassed last night .. Mitch's apples will only start once Matty is back in game shape .. I did not realize he was so out of shape this year .. need to lose 10 pounds fast