Mistakes the Jets Still Regret

[Jets4Life]

I'm not sure you're aware of this, but Garret made some charts.

They frighten me (the charts).

 

[Jets4Life]

In all the data available to us now and at the time of the draft, the pick was not a good one, yet here you are defending the pick. Call it as it is, a bad pick by our GM and scouting staff.

You argument is not a convincing one. Stanley is less than a year removed from his draft date. With your logic, Scheifele, Lowry, Trouba, Hellebuyck, Copp, Morrissey, Petan, Ehlers, Connor, and Roslovic were all horrible draft picks, since none of them made the Jets in the year immediately after they were drafted.

You need to be patient. Come back in 2019, and then we will have a better idea if Stanley was a good or bad draft pick.

 

[Whileee]

In all the data available to us now and at the time of the draft, the pick was not a good one, yet here you are defending the pick. Call it as it is, a bad pick by our GM and scouting staff.

I called it a bad pick at the time, and continue to hold that opinion. But I might well be wrong and the scouts of the Jets and some other NHL teams might be right. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

or you can look at it as 22 and 36 for 18 and 79.

looking at it the toddler way:
22+36 = 58
18+79 = 97
(obviously not a great way to look at it but it illustrates a point)

Bad value trade. Bad value pick. Theres a huge difference between the player you'd get at 36 compared to 79 while the difference between 18 and 22 is not very big.

That's exactly the way I was looking at it but I only listed the what was given up side of the equation.

Or you could say that the difference between 36 and 79 (43 spots) was used to move 22 up to 18 (4 spots). More fun with arithmetic.

Some have said that we might have taken Green at 36 and not have done too badly but there were a lot of more likely prospects between 36 and 79. Just take a look at the player taken at 78 for example.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

#newmath...

Actually, you're wrong based on previous analyses. On average, the difference between #22 and #18 is almost the same as between #36 and #79.

There are actually evidence based value charts for picks, and the value of the picks traded was almost the same as the value of the picks acquired (about 1% different). In fact, the Yotes trade up to get Chychrun was lopsided in favour of the Wings based purely on pick value.

The issue was who the Jets selected, not the difference in pick values.

The problem was that there was no one available at 18 who was a significantly better prospect than those available at 22. Therefore it was a bad time to trade up. Then there was who the Jets selected, a player who would have been a bad pick at 22 as well as at 18.

I hope Stanley proves me wrong. I can take it. It isn't like it would be the first time.

I hope he does not make Chevy (and Hillier or whoever else favoured the pick) think he was right in picking Stanley. If he does make them believe they were right all along then I hope they have moved on to other organizations by the time they come to that conclusion.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The theory of the Thrashers drafting better players the last 3 years in my opinion isn't true but a case of Atlanta rushing all their 1st rounders to the NHL. Zach Bogosian played 128 NHL games by the time Alex Pietrangelo played 17! St Louis allowed him to develop in juniors which is the same formula Cheveldayoff has used. OEL didn't play until 19 and Schenn didn't play regularly until 20. Kane was rushed into the NHL. Burmistrov was rushed into the NHL in 2010-11 whereas Granlund taken after him didn't play until 20 and Fowler didn't play until 19. I am sorry but regretting not taking Tarasenko who was taken at #16 whereas we had #8 holds no weight. That is just a hindsight situation. Teams took Dylan McIlrath, Jack Campbell, Brandon Gormley, and Derek Forbort before Tarasenko was taken and Burmistrov is much better than all of those 4 players (not Tarasenko).

I never suggested Tarasenko instead of Burmi. That was someone else. I agree that is hindsight and cherry picking. Burmi isn't MUCH better than any of those 4 you named though and I expect Forbort to go on to have a better career. I would certainly rather have Granlund than Burmi though.

How much the Atlanta picks were affected by the way they were 'developed' is unknowable. They might have turned out better if handled better - or not. I'm inclined to believe the rushed theory in these cases but it might have never made any difference.

 

[heilongjetsfan]

Ya I wouldn't include ufas not re-signing, it's not like the team can control who wants to stay or go.

Trading Selanne instead if Tkachuk.

We weren't allowed to trade Tkachuk. Chicago signed him to an offer sheet and we matched. Dunno if it still works this way, but my understanding is that we couldn't trade him until the end of the season.

 

[heilongjetsfan]

The Winnipeg Jets were losing 20-25 million when they left town. A new arena wasn't going to generate an extra $20-25 million in revenue. Gate receipts in 2015 was 45 million and in the early 1990's Winnipeggers had a hard time paying $22 for the average ticket let alone my speculation of tickets being about $80-$100 to break even when you account for ticket giveaways to players, community clubs. Also, the Winnipeg Jets (1979-96) had the worst fan support of all the Canadian cities. People can make excuses (sight lines, poor performance, etc.) but back then you could go to a Jets game for under $10 courtesy of 7-11. Back then there was no TV revenue like it is today. It was a "treat" to watch a Jets game on CKY or CBC on Saturday night.

I have to disagree with almost all of this. I was around in those days, too. The sightlines were awful. I worked selling popcorn in the stands so I could watch the games for free, so I saw every possible angle during my years there. There were some places where you could see less than half the ice.
Worth noting, too that I worked for Winnipeg Enterprises, not the Jets. The Jets were tenants in the rink. They paid rent and got nothing for parking or concessions, and didn't make a dime off concerts, Ice Capades, monster truck shows or the Harlem Globetrotters.

Getting the full take on 60+ events aside from hockey, an extra $10 per head from concessions over those events plus hockey, and not paying rent probably would have been enough for them to turn a small profit even in that awful building. If they'd have had a new arena built back then, they'd have been laughing even in that bad economy. It eventually turned around, like things always do, and the Jets were viable probably a decade before we actually got them back.

People love to vilify Shenkarow, but that guy was bleeding his own money to support the team, while the City was milking him for as much as they possibly could. Biggest regret in Jets' history? Dunno, Susan Thompson for mayor?

 

[Gm0ney]

^ Yep. Winnipeg Enterprises were the real villains in the demise of the Jets 1.0. A team-owned arena with all those additional revenue streams would've gone a long way to saving the Jets.

 

[Jets4Life]

People love to vilify Shenkarow, but that guy was bleeding his own money to support the team, while the City was milking him for as much as they possibly could. Biggest regret in Jets' history? Dunno, Susan Thompson for mayor?

Never understood the hate Shankerow gets. He was born and raised in Winnipeg, cared about the community, and did not want the Jets to move.

 

[cam7aylor]

i doubt the jets themselves regret it, but I really wish they took forsberg over trouba

 

[Scheifele55]

I never suggested Tarasenko instead of Burmi. That was someone else. I agree that is hindsight and cherry picking. Burmi isn't MUCH better than any of those 4 you named though and I expect Forbort to go on to have a better career. I would certainly rather have Granlund than Burmi though.

How much the Atlanta picks were affected by the way they were 'developed' is unknowable. They might have turned out better if handled better - or not. I'm inclined to believe the rushed theory in these cases but it might have never made any difference.

I actually believe Alex Burmistrov will do very well with Arizona as they will offer him an increased roll. Jack Campbell has 2 games and 80 minutes of NHL experience. That is a wasted pick so far. Brandon Gormley spent all of last year in the AHL and is now onto his 4th organization. Dylan McIlrath played 5 games last year in the NHL. Maybe he will develop into something but he has 43 games experience in the NHL so far. Derek Forbort played all of last year with the LA Kings. He may actually be better than Burmistrov, difficult to compare but it took 6 years for him to get a fulltime roll.

Let us pretend that we were the GM of the Atlanta Thrashers during that period and we got to make the selection based on draft rankings.

Based on TSN/McKenzie/International Scouting Service/The Hockey News:

We would have taken Gormley or Fowler. They were an average ranking of 4.8 as THN ranked Folwer #3 and the rest ranked Gormley better but it evened out. After that it was Brett Connolly, Jack Campbell and then Alex Burmistrov in the Top 5 available when we took Burmistrov. THN screwed that up as they ranked him #6. Tarasenko was ranked poorly by everyone except ISS who ranked him #4.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

We weren't allowed to trade Tkachuk. Chicago signed him to an offer sheet and we matched. Dunno if it still works this way, but my understanding is that we couldn't trade him until the end of the season.

I always understood it as choosing Tkachuk over Selanne. Surely the compensation they would have gotten for Tkachuk would have been more than the handful of beans (just ordinary beans, no magic) that they got for Selanne.

As it was they then had to trade Selanne because they couldn't afford both. Why they got nothing in return is a different mystery.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I actually believe Alex Burmistrov will do very well with Arizona as they will offer him an increased roll. Jack Campbell has 2 games and 80 minutes of NHL experience. That is a wasted pick so far. Brandon Gormley spent all of last year in the AHL and is now onto his 4th organization. Dylan McIlrath played 5 games last year in the NHL. Maybe he will develop into something but he has 43 games experience in the NHL so far. Derek Forbort played all of last year with the LA Kings. He may actually be better than Burmistrov, difficult to compare but it took 6 years for him to get a fulltime roll.

Let us pretend that we were the GM of the Atlanta Thrashers during that period and we got to make the selection based on draft rankings.

Based on TSN/McKenzie/International Scouting Service/The Hockey News:

We would have taken Gormley or Fowler. They were an average ranking of 4.8 as THN ranked Folwer #3 and the rest ranked Gormley better but it evened out. After that it was Brett Connolly, Jack Campbell and then Alex Burmistrov in the Top 5 available when we took Burmistrov. THN screwed that up as they ranked him #6. Tarasenko was ranked poorly by everyone except ISS who ranked him #4.

There was more than usage wrong with Burmi the last couple of years. If he finds himself with Ari it will be an indictment of Jets handling of him.

As it stands now he has yet to have a good season. He has visible talent so he keeps getting another chance but he is not yet succeeding. Just getting in x number of games does not equal success. Eventually he will either 'get it' or run out of chances.

 

[Scheifele55]

I have to disagree with almost all of this. I was around in those days, too. The sightlines were awful. I worked selling popcorn in the stands so I could watch the games for free, so I saw every possible angle during my years there. There were some places where you could see less than half the ice.
Worth noting, too that I worked for Winnipeg Enterprises, not the Jets. The Jets were tenants in the rink. They paid rent and got nothing for parking or concessions, and didn't make a dime off concerts, Ice Capades, monster truck shows or the Harlem Globetrotters.

Getting the full take on 60+ events aside from hockey, an extra $10 per head from concessions over those events plus hockey, and not paying rent probably would have been enough for them to turn a small profit even in that awful building. If they'd have had a new arena built back then, they'd have been laughing even in that bad economy. It eventually turned around, like things always do, and the Jets were viable probably a decade before we actually got them back.

People love to vilify Shenkarow, but that guy was bleeding his own money to support the team, while the City was milking him for as much as they possibly could. Biggest regret in Jets' history? Dunno, Susan Thompson for mayor?

I went to Jets games and heard about the corners having poor sight lines. I sat in those seats and they were not bad. I remember how they had lots of empty seats during games. I remember the high climbs to get up to the top of the end seats and how the balcony was so steep. The thing is, Winnipeg fans ARE fickle. They always have been. We have a brand new stadium for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers yet don't sell out all the games. There should be 33,500 people at every single game. They had a hard time selling the Grey Cup in 2015 and should have easily got 40,000 people. People will make excuses how parking is so bad etc. There is more paid parking for the new stadium than the old. People were just illegally parking at Polo Park and surrounding businesses.

Anyways, it is a tough sell to get a new arena when the Winnipeg Jets average attendance was between 12,000-13,500 every year. I remember games where 7,000 were in attendance. Please correct me if I am wrong but Winnipeg was seeking funds from all 3 levels of government whereas Rogers Arena was built privately and Montreal Forum and Maple Leaf Gardens were built in 1924 and 1931 and Air Canada Centre didn't even open until 1999.

 

[JetsFan815]

Do you work in any type of job where you are in the public eye, or any kind of job where driving a vehicle is important? As serious as it was, it was never the fact that Pavelec got caught driving drunk that was the problem. It was the fact that he intentionally hid this fact from the Jets, before signing his big contract. I guarantee every contract in the NHL stipulates that players can be suspended or even have their contract declared null and void, if the player does something (especially criminal), that goes against the best interests of True North or any other organization. This is one of the main reasons I never cared for Pavelec as a person, and I am glad the Jets are rid of him. It's the way he conducted himself in Winnipeg as a player. Constantly pouting when Helle or Hutch were on a roll and he was riding the pine, glaring at his defensemen if he let in a bad goal. Just like the DUI, it gives the average person a bad impression of him.

If the Jets had realized that the contract they offered Pavelec was a mistake, they could have moved to have it declared null and void, and released him. It's happened before, and it will happen again in the NHL. Many of us have no love for Pavelec due to these circumstances. Maybe you think hiding a DUI (or any other criminal charge for that matter), when negotiating a contract with your employer is no big deal, but you are in the minority. Most of us I'm sure, think it is an underhanded and slimy thing to do. It can be argued that the only reason True North overlooked this, is Winnipeg is dead last when it comes to where Free Agents want to play. In other words, beggars can't be choosers.

I have been very critical of the Jets decision to hitch their wagon to Pavelec and never been a Pavelec apologist. However putting all that weight on the DUI is a bit extreme. Pavelec is under no obligation to disclose that to his employer if the employer doesn't already know. Saying that "he didn't tell them so he's a bad person" is a bit ridiculous. Expecting people do disclose stuff to their employer that has nothing to do with their jobs is a bit creepy, Big Brothery and leading to a slippery slope. What else do you expect people to disclose to their employers? If you smoked marijuana are you obligated to tell your employer? If you had sex with a prostitute do you need to disclose that to your employer? How about if you drank while you were underage? It's a slippery slope and leads to your personal life becoming your employers business. Pavelec chosing to use a version of the Fifth Amendment is perfectly reasonable from his persepective.

 

[JetsFan815]

#newmath...

Actually, you're wrong based on previous analyses. On average, the difference between #22 and #18 is almost the same as between #36 and #79.

There are actually evidence based value charts for picks, and the value of the picks traded was almost the same as the value of the picks acquired (about 1% different). In fact, the Yotes trade up to get Chychrun was lopsided in favour of the Wings based purely on pick value.

The issue was who the Jets selected, not the difference in pick values.

There are a few different 'value of a pick' charts. According to this one by Eric Tulsky http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/4/25/4262594/nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up the Jets lost value equivalent to somewhere around a 56th overall pick in this trade, so a late second. So not nothing but probably a price most will be willing to pay to get a better player. You are right though, no one would have complained if the Jets had traded up for Chychrun or Fabbro or someone else they wanted.

 

[Aavco Cup]

There are a few different 'value of a pick' charts. According to this one by Eric Tulsky http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/4/25/4262594/nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up the Jets lost value equivalent to somewhere around a 56th overall pick in this trade, so a late second. So not nothing but probably a price most will be willing to pay to get a better player. You are right though, no one would have complained if the Jets had traded up for Chychrun or Fabbro or someone else they wanted.

The chart in here suggests we lost 225 draft points or equal to #73. It's based on the NFL draft though.

If the Jets had Stanley #11 or 12 on their list then it would in theory be a wash

https://www.nhl.com/bluejackets/new...ynamic-to-jackets-draft-day-strategy/c-722857

 

[Jets4Life]

I have been very critical of the Jets decision to hitch their wagon to Pavelec and never been a Pavelec apologist. However putting all that weight on the DUI is a bit extreme. Pavelec is under no obligation to disclose that to his employer if the employer doesn't already know.

If convicted, he is. Believe it or not, most employers are like that. Hypothetically, if I was applying for a job, there is a question that says "Have you been convicted of a crime for which a pardon was not granted?" and I had been convicted of a crime, you are telling me to lie on my application? That is grounds for termination for any job.

Saying that "he didn't tell them so he's a bad person" is a bit ridiculous. Expecting people do disclose stuff to their employer that has nothing to do with their jobs is a bit creepy, Big Brothery and leading to a slippery slope. What else do you expect people to disclose to their employers? If you smoked marijuana are you obligated to tell your employer? If you had sex with a prostitute do you need to disclose that to your employer? How about if you drank while you were underage? It's a slippery slope and leads to your personal life becoming your employers business. Pavelec chosing to use a version of the Fifth Amendment is perfectly reasonable from his persepective.

The Jets are in Canada. The Fifth Amendment does not apply here. having said that, there will always be players who choose to drink and drive, pick up prostitutes, and do drugs. I can name a few NHL players past and present that have engaged in all three activities. Ideally, they shouldn't be doing it, but it happens. I've read statistics about drunk drivers that state the average person who is charged with a DUI has driven drunk 100 TIMES on average prior to being caught. It's when you are caught, charged, and convicted of a crime that matters. In most cases, you have no choice but to disclose this information. You do not seem to grasp the law very well.

Being a professional athlete, you are expected to adhere to things the average person would not have to adhere to. It would be different if Pavelec was working on a drilling rig or a construction worker. However, NHL players are seen by many as role models, especially for children. Most Jets help out in the community. Just like news reporters, or any other type of profession where your job is to interact with the community. And when you perform for the public you are held to a higher standard, whether you like to admit it or not.

And please don't throw red herrings into the argument like "underage drinking." Last time I checked, a DUI was far more serious. Pavelec is very lucky he was playing on the Jets when this occured. If this were the Red Wings or Blackhawks, he may not have been so lucky.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If convicted, he is. Believe it or not, most employers are like that. Hypothetically, if I was applying for a job, there is a question that says "Have you been convicted of a crime for which a pardon was not granted?" and I had been convicted of a crime, you are telling me to lie on my application? That is grounds for termination for any job.



The Jets are in Canada. The Fifth Amendment does not apply here. having said that, there will always be players who choose to drink and drive, pick up prostitutes, and do drugs. I can name a few NHL players past and present that have engaged in all three activities. Ideally, they shouldn't be doing it, but it happens. I've read statistics about drunk drivers that state the average person who is charged with a DUI has driven drunk 100 TIMES on average prior to being caught. It's when you are caught, charged, and convicted of a crime that matters. In most cases, you have no choice but to disclose this information. You do not seem to grasp the law very well.

Being a professional athlete, you are expected to adhere to things the average person would not have to adhere to. It would be different if Pavelec was working on a drilling rig or a construction worker. However, NHL players are seen by many as role models, especially for children. Most Jets help out in the community. Just like news reporters, or any other type of profession where your job is to interact with the community. And when you perform for the public you are held to a higher standard, whether you like to admit it or not.

And please don't throw red herrings into the argument like "underage drinking." Last time I checked, a DUI was far more serious. Pavelec is very lucky he was playing on the Jets when this occured. If this were the Red Wings or Blackhawks, he may not have been so lucky.

It is not called the 5th Amendment here but you are still not required to self-incriminate.

I may be mis-remembering this, or confusing it with Buff's boating incident but I have a recollection to the effect that what Pavelec was charged with was not technically a crime in that jurisdiction. So he would still have passed a criminal record check.

He did not falsify anything. He did not lie on a job application. The question was not asked and he did not volunteer the information.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The chart in here suggests we lost 225 draft points or equal to #73. It's based on the NFL draft though.

If the Jets had Stanley #11 or 12 on their list then it would in theory be a wash

https://www.nhl.com/bluejackets/new...ynamic-to-jackets-draft-day-strategy/c-722857

Then it would only have been their list that was wrong.

 

[mazmin]

Terrible returns in the Kovalchuk and Selanne trades. Not sure if the former counts.

 

[mazmin]

The departures of Hainsey and Oduya always irked me. They're not superstars but they're steady, and we've been missing that steady bottom 4 for a long time.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Terrible returns in the Kovalchuk and Selanne trades. Not sure if the former counts.

Followed up on the return for Kovy. The trade and subsequent trades of the returns leads to, what we got was Buff and Poolman. The rest was junk that never made any impact.

 

[Jets4Life]

I actually believe Alex Burmistrov will do very well with Arizona as they will offer him an increased roll.

Burmi is done. He will be 26 by the start of the season, and his best days are behind him. Not sure what happened. Rushed into the NHL too soon? Did Claude Noel undermine his confidence? Did he regress when he left for the KHL? I guess we are left to contemplate what could ahve been...