Minnesota Wild General Discussion XIX

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Wild11MN

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Something that needs to address next season is how putrid Minnesota's face off percentage is. The best player is Gaudreau sitting at a 50.3 face off win %. And the next three are gone (Sturm, Bjugstad, Rask).

Hartman sits at 44.7% and Eriksson-Ek sits at a 47.0%.

Either fire the coach that handles face offs, or ... actually I don't know what.
Teams that are top 10 in faceoff percentage: Philly, Vancouver, NYI
Teams that are bottom 10 in faceoff percentage: Florida (best team in the league), NYR, Minnesota, Colorado (2nd best team in the league), Washington

There's very little correlation here. The difference between the team faceoff percentage of 47.5% and average (50%), is the difference of about 2 faceoffs per game.
 

thestonedkoala

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There's very little correlation here. The difference between the team faceoff percentage of 47.5% and average (50%), is the difference of about 2 faceoffs per game.

Except Minnesota lost two of their best face off men in Sturm and Rask.

I guess we could roll with Gaudreau if they need a critical face off win.
 

Bazeek

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Except Minnesota lost two of their best face off men in Sturm and Rask.

I guess we could roll with Gaudreau if they need a critical face off win.
Improving the team's overall faceoff % does not substantially improve the chances of you winning that specific faceoff.

Improving a specific center's overall faceoff % does not substantially improve the chances of you winning that specific faceoff.

Firing the coach that coaches faceoffs does not substantially improve the chances of you winning that specific faceoff.

Statistics don't work like this.
 
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Wild11MN

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Except Minnesota lost two of their best face off men in Sturm and Rask.

I guess we could roll with Gaudreau if they need a critical face off win.
Isn't replacing two of your bottom players with better players more important than winning an extra two or three faceoffs?
 

Wild11MN

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I understand that as there is a 50% chance of winning the faceoff, but going 3-14 doesn't really inspire any confidence, especially at a critical moment.

It's like free throws.
No, it's like winning a jump ball. Free throws = points.
 

BagHead

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Gonna do this play by play live

I really like the way the guy loaded the Fiala question up :laugh: Gave an advance warning of what the topic was, spent a couple seconds buttering him up by complimenting his balls, and then asked what he's gonna do now that Fiala proved it on the prove-it contract.

Guerin: "Listen, this will all work out. Not work out in maybe the way we all want it to, I don't know which way it's going to work out. But we have to give it time. Honest to god, I don't know. The most important thing right now is that we stay focused and Kevin stays focused, and this will all work out one way or another and we'll have to deal with it. I really can't, you know the guy that asked the salary cap question about how far we plan out, you know, 'make plans, god laughs' so I don't know. I don't know what their expectations will be I don't know what ours will be I don't know what the market will be, I don't know. But right now, we're really enjoying watching this kid blossom and play some great hockey for us."

Not sure if that's been posted elsewhere yet, but that's the money shot of the entire podcast. Sounds like they're definitely leaning towards trading him if the market is right and his ask isn't 'team-friendly' but that's just my interpretation of the way he said it.

For all intents and purposes though, he's still putting the ball in Fiala's court to accept what Guerin offers. Sounds like they'll definitely talk about it and make offers, but I don't think Fiala's negotiating leash is going to be very long, unless the trade market for him is absolutely horrendous.
lmao! The bolded and italicized is like if the US military said "Ok, we'd doing more war, and that war is going to work out - in some way. We have no idea if we can actually win this war, but we know that it'll definitely end at some point."

I'm pretty happy with the overall body of work Guerin has done, but this was definitely not confidence inspiring. I hope he's just playing his cards close to his vest, and staying open to modifying his plan as new information arises.
 

Bazeek

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I understand that as there is a 50% chance of winning the faceoff, but going 3-14 doesn't really inspire any confidence, especially at a critical moment.

It's like free throws.
I'm just saying, it doesn't make sense to try to lend significance to aggregate data by pointing out that specific events might have a lot of weight in context. That's true of absolutely everything in hockey: faceoffs, hits, shots, penalties, offsides, icings, etc.

I don't think this team is good at faceoffs and do think it could burn us in the playoffs, but @Wild11MN's point is a valid one. Being good/bad at faceoffs doesn't seem to affect a team's success too much in the long run. It's a lower-tier concern.
 

thestonedkoala

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I'm just saying, it doesn't make sense to try to lend significance to aggregate data by pointing out that specific events might have a lot of weight in context. That's true of absolutely everything in hockey: faceoffs, hits, shots, penalties, offsides, icings, etc.
I think really two of those that you listed are more important; penalties (due to PP) and faceoffs.
 

Webster

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I'm FARRRRRR more worried about our special teams in the playoffs vs our faceoffs and it's not even close

PP been pretty good lately, except the last couple of games when they looked like a bus without a driver. But he's back soon...
 

AKL

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Agreed. Spurgeon should be back soon.

To be fair, Zuccarello's production does benefit from the PP more than anyone else on the team by a significant margin. You can understand why he'd be confused about who's in the drivers seat.
 

Minnewildsota

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To be fair, Zuccarello's production does benefit from the PP more than anyone else on the team by a significant margin. You can understand why he'd be confused about who's in the drivers seat.
I was just giving him a hard time.
 

57special

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The PK is too passive, and allows entry to the d zone way too easily. The D has terrible gaps, as if they are worried about being beaten on the rush, and back away from the Blue line way too far.
 

DeagleJenkins

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I was just giving him a hard time.
i think zuccarello does that enough for him.

The PK is too passive, and allows entry to the d zone way too easily. The D has terrible gaps, as if they are worried about being beaten on the rush, and back away from the Blue line way too far.
it seems that they want to shut down the middle rush far more heavily than anything else and leave an easy wall entry. ever since mackinnon burned brodin with ease right up the middle maybe 2 years ago we have seemed to congest the middle far more. looks like we are baiting it really with the forwards swinging out wide and forcing the middle only to collapse on them except we hardly ever force a turnover or regroup.
 

57special

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it seems that they want to shut down the middle rush far more heavily than anything else and leave an easy wall entry. ever since mackinnon burned brodin with ease right up the middle maybe 2 years ago we have seemed to congest the middle far more. looks like we are baiting it really with the forwards swinging out wide and forcing the middle only to collapse on them except we hardly ever force a turnover or regroup.
Whatever we are doing, it ain't working. I don't think it's the personnel. I think it's the coaching
 

63firebird

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Whatever we are doing, it ain't working. I don't think it's the personnel. I think it's the coaching
Who handles power play and penalty kill?
Darby?
Whoever it is….

Get f*****g rid of him!!!!
6 power plays against a last place team down the stretch at home. Zero goals. Everyone has injuries. This is just not acceptable regardless how Deano plays it down.
 

57special

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Rossi not playing tonight in Iowa's last, meaningless game of the season. Call up, I hope?
 

AKL

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Rossi not playing tonight in Iowa's last, meaningless game of the season. Call up, I hope?

Seems weird for it to be a call-up. We don't have a game until tomorrow and it's at home. Not to mention our top 12 forwards (sans Zuccarello) are all healthy again right now.

But it's weird that he wouldn't play for Iowa too. Maybe he's injured, and since Iowa can't make the playoffs anyway, they just shut him down early?

EDIT: Just saw this


I wonder what it is, how long he's had it, and if that's the reason his play has fallen off a bit lately.
 
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63firebird

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5 shots on 6 power plays. Really?
Never mind Hartsy , the whole team should forfeit last night’s pay to the Children’s hospital.
 
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DeagleJenkins

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Whatever we are doing, it ain't working. I don't think it's the personnel. I think it's the coaching
agreed its not working. unsure what they are doing it seems they want to over attack on the kill and people just pass around us and score. almost looks like they need to be retaught on when to pounce and how to be patient and stay in the passing lanes. its crazy how often the other team can cross ice feed a one timer through our pk.
 

Prior

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As for the PK, beyond their inability to win a draw, or having defenders to be strong enough on a puck to get a clear, or non-Spurgeon, Brodin, and Dumba defenders being able to have good gaps on zone entries…

The main reason why their PK is dreadful is because they overload the middle when opposing teams control the puck up top. It’s to take away a shot from the point and to take the bumper and net front guy away as options. However, what it is doing is giving the triggers on opposing team’s PPs prime scoring chances or options. The near defender then needs to dive out to that trigger. Which can then leave the near net front guy a prime chance if someone on the backside loses an assignment. Same with the far side trigger. And that’s not counting whether the goaltender sees the movement out to the wall quick enough through the mass of bodies and can get set in time. Given that most triggers are some of the most talented players and shooters in the league in most cases, all of that may not matter anyway.

All in all, it’s a recipe for disaster when you are playing talented teams and counts on near flawless coverage on the backside of the play nearly every time.
 
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