Minnesota Wild General Discussion XIX

[thestonedkoala]

Kaprizov and Fiala and Boldy are wonderful but you can’t expect them to score 6 or 7 goals to beat Nashville and Columbus. PK is too slow and doesn’t attack. PP can’t enter the zone. Greenway and Foligno on PP? Most teams take their best shooters and put them out for nearly the whole 2 min. Zuc, Fiala, Boldy, Kap at once. Leave them out. Why grinders onnPP? They are ok for 5-5 close games but on the PP you should be able to pass it around the O zone.

No, but Kaprizov, Fiala, Boldy, Zuccarello and Dumba are skilled players. The biggest (and has been the biggest issue) is down the middle.

Face offs is another issue.

 

[63firebird]

Seems pretty clear the Wild are 3-4 pieces from competing.
A Center that can win a face off.
Merrill/Goligoski replaced by fast puck movers.
Elite goalie.
I’d love to be wrong but I see Bruins scoring easily on PP tomorrow.Foligno doesn’t take time and space away. He just stands there and let’s them setup.

 

[Spurgeon]

The thing I don’t understand about the Jost signing is the team make-up next season. Either Hartman or Jost are going to be on the 4th line, which seems like poor cap management.

Zucc - Hartman/Jost - Kap
Boldy - Rossi - Fiala (?)
GREEF
Dewar - Gaudreau - Jost/Hartman

I suppose if Fiala is truly gone, then you slot Hartman into 2RW. It’s frustrating that Guerin had a path to keeping Fiala & Dumba for at least one more season. Based on the beginning of this season, you’d think he would’ve tried to optimize this two-year window.

 

[Nino Noderreiter]

I'm still trying to understand Guerin's strategy outside of falling into dumb luck in terms of the Wild finally having elite-level-offensive talent that Guerin seems to be trying to run out the door.

What positive moves or additions has Guerin made to this roster? What has he done other than railroad people out the door causing us to lose assets and be put into tough cap situation for no reason. Going back to the Suter buyout, he said he didn't even TRY to see if anyone in the league would offer an asset. Did not even try. How do you not even try to see if there's an angle to a better scenario than your current plan?

1) Testy Kaprizov Discussions
2) Lack of Fiala prioritization or planning (in fact posturing and minor moves that make the slim chances of retaining Fiala much harder in order to shuffle the deck as a benefit)
3) Running prospects out the door McBain/Mennell in weird circumstances despite putting the team in a position strategize to lose depth in the same area and a need for cheap talent because of the cap
4) Seemingly mismanaging prospect development (although I think talent wins out) in terms of lack of Boldy call-up sooner to swing for the fences during a short-window, complete mismanagement of Addison's development (I think he's played more games at forward than D this year at the NHL level) and prioritization of no upside/anchors like Benn, letting Beckman be buried in the AHL, etc.

Other than buzzwords about lockerroom and chemistry and brazen quotes about how "the goal is to win" where is any clear strategy or vision in order to do that? Each move Guerin seems to make seems to be in a vacuum without thinking about the consequences short-term or long-term and then he reacts with the next move after that. I'm just overall pretty lost with the direction.

 

[GuerinUp]

I'm still trying to understand Guerin's strategy outside of falling into dumb luck in terms of the Wild finally having elite-level-offensive talent that Guerin seems to be trying to run out the door.

What positive moves or additions has Guerin made to this roster? What has he done other than railroad people out the door causing us to lose assets and be put into tough cap situation for no reason. Going back to the Suter buyout, he said he didn't even TRY to see if anyone in the league would offer an asset. Did not even try. How do you not even try to see if there's an angle to a better scenario than your current plan?

1) Testy Kaprizov Discussions
2) Lack of Fiala prioritization or planning (in fact posturing and minor moves that make the slim chances of retaining Fiala much harder in order to shuffle the deck as a benefit)
3) Running prospects out the door McBain/Mennell in weird circumstances despite putting the team in a position strategize to lose depth in the same area and a need for cheap talent because of the cap
4) Seemingly mismanaging prospect development (although I think talent wins out) in terms of lack of Boldy call-up sooner to swing for the fences during a short-window, complete mismanagement of Addison's development (I think he's played more games at forward than D this year at the NHL level) and prioritization of no upside/anchors like Benn, letting Beckman be buried in the AHL, etc.

Other than buzzwords about lockerroom and chemistry and brazen quotes about how "the goal is to win" where is any clear strategy or vision in order to do that? Each move Guerin seems to make seems to be in a vacuum without thinking about the consequences short-term or long-term and then he reacts with the next move after that. I'm just overall pretty lost with the direction.

cap recapture is a thing.

he probably knew fiala wasnt happening at the beginning of the season, and his value wont be higher than it is when he trades him.

he didnt run mcbain out the door, mcbain and the goalie both declined coming to MN. Mennell hasnt done crap since leaving, and addison hasnt played more games at forward than D.

 

[Nino Noderreiter]

cap recapture is a thing.

he probably knew fiala wasnt happening at the beginning of the season, and his value wont be higher than it is when he trades him.

he didnt run mcbain out the door, mcbain and the goalie both declined coming to MN. Mennell hasnt done crap since leaving, and addison hasnt played more games at forward than D.

I agree that some of these things may be true and ultimately the Mennel situation as an example hasn't really worked out negatively. That being said, for me it's a disagreement with the process being used around these types of decisions and roster moves. It may be true that you cannot keep Fiala, however I think we all understand how important Fiala is as a player. I would think you could go all out in terms of trying to make it happen and giving yourself a potential path to try to make it work. Now maybe ultimately, Fiala decides he will not settle for less than Kaprizov money and it's just 100% not possible... I would get that.

To me, the attitude from the front-office has been the opposite. It's been standoff-ish and "my way or the highway" type attitudes. I haven't seen any messaging from Guerin that suggests that he's attempted to try to make things work even if it's just mostly PR. I don't even know if I've seen a statement about wanting Fiala back and hoping that there can be a middle ground given the cap realities.

I don't think any of us, even Guerin, will always be able to predict the results of this types of things (i.e. Mennell not living up to the promise he showed in the KHL). However, I think that the right process in place can maximize the chance of positive outcomes instead of shutting doors and hoping that we don't open that door later to see if it bites us.

I think Guerin is playing with fire. The more we continue to squander assets without even an opportunity to fully vet them the sooner one of those mismanagement situations is going to finally catch up to us in a big way.

 

[GuerinUp]

I agree that some of these things may be true and ultimately the Mennel situation as an example hasn't really worked out negatively. That being said, for me it's a disagreement with the process being used around these types of decisions and roster moves. It may be true that you cannot keep Fiala, however I think we all understand how important Fiala is as a player. I would think you could go all out in terms of trying to make it happen and giving yourself a potential path to try to make it work. Now maybe ultimately, Fiala decides he will not settle for less than Kaprizov money and it's just 100% not possible... I would get that.

To me, the attitude from the front-office has been the opposite. It's been standoff-ish and "my way or the highway" type attitudes. I haven't seen any messaging from Guerin that suggests that he's attempted to try to make things work even if it's just mostly PR. I don't even know if I've seen a statement about wanting Fiala back and hoping that there can be a middle ground given the cap realities.

I don't think any of us, even Guerin, will always be able to predict the results of this types of things (i.e. Mennell not living up to the promise he showed in the KHL). However, I think that the right process in place can maximize the chance of positive outcomes instead of shutting doors and hoping that we don't open that door later to see if it bites us.

I think Guerin is playing with fire. The more we continue to squander assets without even an opportunity to fully vet them the sooner one of those mismanagement situations is going to finally catch up to us in a big way.

i think youre putting way too much meaning behind basically nothing as far as actual information that has been released on each of these situations.

could your thoughts be true? yes, but they could equally be way off.

truth is we will probably never know the real reasons behind all of this.

 

[63firebird]

3) Running prospects out the door McBain/Mennell in weird circumstances despite putting the team in a position strategize to lose depth in the same area and a need for cheap talent because of the cap

How did this happen? I was under the impression with a cap crunch that developing prospects is the only path forward? especially a good size center.

 

[P10p]

How did this happen? I was under the impression with a cap crunch that developing prospects is the only path forward? especially a good size center.

This is such a ridiculous narrative. If the prospect doesn't want to play here, there is literally nothing that the franchise can do to change their mind. This has been demonstrated numerous times and holding it against that franchise is a completely illogical take.

 

[63firebird]

This is such a ridiculous narrative. If the prospect doesn't want to play here, there is literally nothing that the franchise can do to change their mind. This has been demonstrated numerous times and holding it against that franchise is a completely illogical take.

I was asking how it happened. Not casting blame.I read just now in the McBain thread that he wants a one way contract which is totally understandable that BG wouldn't go for that.

 

[P10p]

I was asking how it happened. Not casting blame.I read just now in the McBain thread that he wants a one way contract which is totally understandable that BG wouldn't go for that.

Apologies, I was more so responding to the rhetoric that you were quoting. How BG is "running prospects out of town" when what is actually happening is that these kids would simply rather control where they play.

 

[Mickey the mouse]

ELc's are 2 way contracts period.

Handshake agreements on NHL Guarantees have been done

 

[Circulartheory]

cap recapture is a thing.

he probably knew fiala wasnt happening at the beginning of the season, and his value wont be higher than it is when he trades him.

he didnt run mcbain out the door, mcbain and the goalie both declined coming to MN. Mennell hasnt done crap since leaving, and addison hasnt played more games at forward than D.

Going to focus on this part bc prospects is my interest

How are still even including the whole Mennell thing here? The guy has scored 5 points in 18 AHL games and I supported not giving the guy a one-way deal bc it made no sense and the guy wasn't going to re-sign another 2-way deal with the same org. He was not some prospect with all this upside - as evidenced by his production and his trade value (future considerations.

The same goes to McBain - the kid has all the leverage and has had 1 very good season in his senior year. From reports, it sounded like Guerin was willing to see him for a 4th line spot which I would be against bc he needs AHL time like Rossi and Boldy. If he sees an easier path on another NHL team, no amount of sweet talking is going to convince him otherwise as, again, he has all the leverage.

 

[Nino Noderreiter]

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Should the Wild make line adjustments to try to generate a spark?
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Hartman has been dragging the line for a month or two now. Bad penalties. Low hockey IQ plays. Trying to make behind the back passes, drop passes, get cute, etc. Overall, he has 10 points (5g) in his last 15 games but is a -11 during that stretch including two -3 & one -4 performance. He's still averaging ~3.5 shots per game which is actually above his 2.95 average on the season. 100 faceoff wins & 138 faceoff losses (42% face offs) including a 1 win and 15 loss performance.

If you extend this back another 7 games, Hartman has 11 points (10 even strength points) in 22 games and is a -10 with 138 faceoff wins and 190 face off losses (42%) and 2.95 shots per game. If you extend this back another 5 games to when Boldy joined the team Hartman's numbers jump to 9g & 7asts in 27 games. Honestly, not far off from Rask-level production given his linemates and ice time over the last 22g stretch. I guess a stretch that's 25% of the season-long of "bad" production as a 1C isn't enough to try something new yet. We will see. I don't see any reason why we should fret over trying other options in Hartman's spot.
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Note: It's worth noting that Hartman had 30 points in his previous 30 games before the 22 game stretch in which he has been slumping including 16 goals and a +31 (and going back to the start of the season 32 points in 36 games including 18g and a +36).
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Note: Kaprizov during that 22g stretch has 27 points (14g) on 3.8 shots per game and is a -5. This includes just 17 even-strength points. This represents a 52g & 100pt pace per 82 games. Zuccarello has 26 points in 20 games (8g) over that same stretch on 2.25 shots per game and is a -4. This includes 15 even-strength points for a 107 point pace per 82 games.

*If you extend this stretch out 5-7 games to coincide with Boldy joining the team the production per 82 games is roughly 120 points & 115 points respectively.
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Note: The Wild have slumped over their last 14 games going (4-9-1). This stretch has coincided with an additional decrease in production from the Wild's top line, at least defensively.
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1. Kaprizov has 16pts (8g) in 14 games including 11 ES points and is a -7*. This averages out to a 47g & 93 point pace per 82 games.
2. Zuccarello has 14pts (5g) in 14 games including 9 ES points and is a -5. This averages out to a 30g & 82 point pace per 82 games.
3. Hartman has 9pts (4g) in 14 games including 8 ES points and is a -11. This averages out to a 23g & 53 point pace per 82 games.

*Kaprizov had 3 points in the previous game meaning that he has roughly a 55 goal & 105 point pace per 82 game pace over his last 15 games.
**Zuccarello had 3 points in the previous game meaning that he has roughly a 27 goal & 100 point pace per 82 games over his last 15 games.
***Hartman had a goal in the previous game as well. 10 pts & 5 goals in 15 games is roughly a 27g & 55 point pace per 82 games
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Takeaways:
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Hartman began to slump roughly 22 games ago in late-January from the level he was at previously. This slump is slightly misleading as what it really means is that Hartman sandwiched a 30 game PPG stretch & a 15 game stretch at a 55 point pace between a 7 game stretch with just 1 point. This 15 game stretch seems somewhat representative of what we might realistically hope for output for Hartman given his current #1 C spot & his lack of PP time. Kaprizov's production has been hurt by a lack of finishing from Hartman/Zuccarello during this stretch as compared to earlier in the year with both players scoring just 5 goals in the last 15 games.

During the Wild's slide, this line has continued to score at a really strong pace but struggled to keep the puck out of their own net. This trend really is primarily driven by 2 different -4 games by this line against Florida & Nashville. This line has heavily sheltered offensive zone starts (~60%+) and needs to figure out how to generate possession & chances off the rush without giving away the puck and leading to odd-man rushes. I think the important question to ask is how/if the Wild can make adjustments that can allow this line to be successful on both sides of the ice.
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Hartman - Given his "fall" back to earth; he has actually continued to score at a higher than expected rate
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I still believe that Hartman is a better and more skilled player than the player we thought we signed. That being said, the shoe no longer fits and the honeymoon phase is over. Hartman is not a 1st line center and while he can skate well enough to play the position up the middle on the ice... his lack of ability to win faceoffs and help drive possession really hurt the line. Hartman may still be averaging ~25-30 goals per 82 games over his last 15 games, however given the number of chances generated for him this is not good enough. It is great that Hartman has rebounded but he has still been a net negative over the last 22-27 games of the season.
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How does the The Boldy Line compare?
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1. Gaudreau has 16 points (6 goals on 2.15 shots/g) during that 22 game stretch and is a +5 and 49% on FOs. This only includes 1 PPP for Gaudreau meaning that he has 15 even-strength points in his last 22g. That's roughly a 22g - 60pt pace per 82 games.

2. Boldy during that 22g stretch has 20 pts (10g) on 2.65 shots per game and is a +2 this includes 12 even-strength points. This is roughly a 75 point & 37 goal pace.

3. Fiala has 28 points (11g) on 3.15 shots per game and is a +5. This includes 25 even-strength points. This is roughly a ~105 point & 40 goal pace per 82 games.
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Note:
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Extending this stretch to the start of the Boldy pairing Fiala has 33pts in his last 27 games (13g) including 29 even-strength points and is a +10. That's a 40g & 100 point pace per 82 games. Fiala's hot stretch actually started 2 games prior that where in 29 games he's compiled 16g & 36 points in 29g (or a 45g - 102 point pace) including 31 even-strength points in 29 games. Since being paired with Boldy/Fiala in total, Gaudreau has 17 points over 27 games (6 goals) which is a 19g - 52 pt pace per 82 games basically entirely even-strength scoring.
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How have they performed during the losing streak?
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The better time period to look at, rather than the beginning of Hartman's slump, is how this line has performed over the 4-9-1 stretch over roughly the last month.


1. Fiala has 17 points (6g) in 14 games and is a -1 +/-with 15 ES points on 3.9 shots/game. This is a 100 point & 35 goal pace per 82 games.
2. Boldy has 10 points (5g) in 14 games and is a -2 +/- with 8 ES points on 2.6 shots/game. This is a 60 point & 30 goal pace per 82 games.
3. Gaudreau has 8 points (3g) in 14 games and is a -1 +/- with 8 ES points on 2 shots/game. This is a 47 point & 18 goal pace per 82 games.

*Boldy had 3 goals & 4 points in the previous game before the beginning of the losing stretch meaning that he has 14 points (8g) in his last 15 games. This is a 77 point & 43 goal pace per 82 games.
**Gaudreau had 4 points in the previous 2 games to the losing stretch & 6 points in the previous 4. Gaudreau has 14 points (5g) in his last 18 games. That is a 64 point & 23 goal pace per 82 games.
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Takeaways
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Gaudreau has actually had a much stronger stretch than I gave him credit for over a longer period of time than I realized. In addition to solid scoring numbers for a consistent stretch of play, Gaudreau leads the league in FO% during the stretch at ~49% compared to 42% & 46% for Hartman/Ek. In addition, Gaudreau has been able to stabilize this high-octane offensive line defensively in a way that Hartman has not been able to consistently do especially over this stretch of the Wild slumping. In addition, while Fiala & a slightly lesser extent Boldy are driving play... it has been noticeable the way that Gaudreau has been able to contribute to a number of those goals with his own individual efforts. I think that you probably actually do have to ride out the Fiala - Gaudreau - Boldy line to see how long they can keep producing at the level they are producing at as much as I want to juggle things.

This line has also taken a step back scoring-wise during the losing streak, though they were coming off an extremely hot stretch of games just prior to the beginning of that streak. That being said, this line is playing more defensively responsible than the Kaprizov line is. I think a lot of credit goes to Gaudreau/Boldy for being players who are really committed to being 2-way forwards. Fiala may sometimes cheat in the defensive zone, but ultimately his speed is a difference-maker as well to break the puck out of the zone. The Wild have been outscored by 23 goals during the losing streak and while a good portion of that difference is empty-net goals it's relatively impressive that this line is showing that it can be responsible enough to drive offensive chances and also hold their own on the defensive end. Fiala has clearly been the best player on this line as of late and is driving play.
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Perspective is interesting
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Over the last 27g, Gaudreau/Hartman have produced really similarily (16pts & 15 even strength points). Gaudreau is more of a playmaker while Hartman is more of a finisher, but to me this statistic is further evidence that Hartman is a solid-bottom-six player with some flashes of more skill than most bottom-6 players who is getting primo ice-time, linemates, and zone usage. I think this stretch (which is ~47% of the whole season thus far) is likely much more representative of what to expect from Hartman (and also Gaudreau) given that they continue to be paired with PPG+ linemates versus 27pts & 14 goals in the previous 31g for Hartman. Though, it could be true that Hartman ultimately has more offensive upside than Gaudreau (evidenced by his 30 game PPG stretch or 32 points in 36 games with 14 goals) while Gaudreau is the more stable defensive center & face-off winner.

It is really interesting that the Wild seem to be proving that you can turn bottom 6 centers who flash some middle 6 type of offensive skills into 50-60 point centers without much PP time given the right linemates. Longer-term, I think I would be more fine with this type of production than I originally thought if that player was an elite face-off player and also more of a difference-maker defensively than Hartman at least.
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Note: I guess I will play devil's advocate and call-out that it's interesting that we are excited about Fiala's ~100 point pace, Boldy's ~PPG pace, and Gaudreau producing at a 50+ points/82 type pace since that line has been put together. That is, it's interesting that we're excited about the production while at the same time disappointed by Kaprizov/Zucc producing at +100 points per 82g & Hartman still producing at a ~26g / 52 points per 82g pace. That being said, I think the minus totals (as flawed as plus/minus is) combined with the downward trend in production and lack of strong even strength production for their standards colors the view.
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Can the Wild do anything to generate a spark?
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The Wild need to change the energy on their lines. While both their top offensive lines continue to produce at a high level offensively, the Kaprizov line has been struggling defensively in a big way. In addition, they have been struggling to gain possession consistently starting with face-offs. Hartman has been able to pull out of the worst of his slump but something still feels off. It feels like he has stopped playing like a gritty middle 6 winger with a sneaky good shot and is trying to play like Zucc/Kaprizov.

The Ek line is also struggling offensively. Ek has just 6 even-strength points in his last 27 games. I think that there could be a mutual benefit to swapping Ek/Hartman for a period of time. Ek can help generate more possession for the line & act as a safety blanket to continue to allow Kaprizov & Zucc to be really aggressive and take pucks to high-danger areas. Hartman had success with Foligno/Greenway to start the year and could benefit from a period of time playing a north/south forecheck, cycle, and get pucks to the net type of style that made him successful during the first weeks of his transition into #1 center.
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Fun Statistic
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I want to close this post by taking a moment to call out that Kaprizov has now officially maintained a 50+ goal & 120+ point pace per 82 games for over half of a full NHL season (42 games).

Kaprizov has been on fire since mid-November over his last 42 games. Kaprizov has 62 points including 27 goals (and 47 even strength points) +19 on 3.5 shots per game. This pace averages out to roughly 53 goals & 121 points over a full 82 game season as well as over 90 (92) even-strength points.
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[Nino Noderreiter]

High-Level Takeaways

1. The Wild's top 2 lines are scoring enough to be able to beat teams.

2. The Kaprizov line has had real issues on the defensive side of the ice during the losing streak (this may be partially poor goaltending and/or empty nets)

3. The trend lines are different, but the Gaudreau line is roughly matching the scoring output (especially ES scoring output) that the Kaprizov line is putting up during the losing streak. One really interesting insight, is that the Gaudreau line has been able to produce a lot of offense while also being pretty responsible defensively considering how the rest of the team has been collapsing around them. I think credit goes to all 3 forwards on this line, though I think Gaudreau should get the majority of the credit as the center.

4.Gaudreau has had a surprisingly solid offensive stretch over the last 22 games (and even over the last 27 games since Boldy was added). It remains to be seen how consistent Gaudreau will be able to be offensively. He had a 22 game stretch averaging 20+ goals & 60+ points per 82 games but that has been sandwiched by a 5 game stretch with just 1 point as well as a 14 game stretch with just 8 points. Consistency will be hard given the lack of PP time, however if Gaudreau can continue to provide defensive play from the C position and average the highs & lows to ~50 points... that makes things really interesting.

5. Swapping Ek & Hartman could be an interesting move to try to help both players out & find their games more consistently again. Hartman has not been a difference-maker on the Kaprizov line in at least 22 games. The Kaprizov line could use a center that can more consistently generate possession through winning face-offs and provides more of a security blanket defensively allowing Kaprizov/Zuccarello to be aggressive trying to create odd-man rushes.

 

[Nino Noderreiter]

i think youre putting way too much meaning behind basically nothing as far as actual information that has been released on each of these situations.

could your thoughts be true? yes, but they could equally be way off.

truth is we will probably never know the real reasons behind all of this.

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That is a fair critique of my response. What I would say is that in my opinion, that is part of the problem. I think an important part of being a leader, really in any business, is being able to articulate and communicate your strategy & vision. As you execute on that strategy & vision, I think it's important to be able to articulate how the decisions you are making fit with the strategy that you have laid out that will lead to the desired outcome (in this case I would think that's a Stanley Cup). In my opinion, Guerin is an extremely poor communicator of what his vision and roadmap is for creating a Stanley Cup-winning Wild team.
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To me, it doesn't seem like Guerin's decision-making process has a long-term plan behind it that is connected to a broader vision. To me, it doesn't appear that he prioritizes our highest ROI assets nor does he care about maximizing them even if internally he makes decisions based on all of the information he has access to that it's the right move long-term. There are consistently decisions that are made & roster moves that compete with previous decisions that have been made and foundational what we thought the impact would be roster construction-wise.
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The way that I currently see it is that 1) we aren't putting ourselves in position or really making an effort to make any roster construction improvements for a playoff run during our short-window prior to the buy-outs kicking in 2) we aren't taking steps that will make it easier for us to navigate difficult cap circumstances over the next 3 years 3) we are prioritizing tieing up the little cap space we do have in areas of our roster that are the easiest to fill cheaply with young players 4) we aren't prioritizing keeping our most important players & our lateral moves are actually moving us in a direction that makes it harder to do so 5) we are prioritizing older/past-prime core contracts instead of our younger players
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I can keep going. There are always responses like this one where you say we can never know and so we should just give the benefit of the doubt. I'm not really sure why we should give BG the benefit of the doubt. What moves has he made to earn the benefit of the doubt? Why shouldn't he be questioned? I am fine going in either directional path that we have the option to take at this moment but we need to pick a path and focus on setting ourselves up to reach that outcome.
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There are always excuses that can be made. We couldn't keep Fiala because of "X". McBain asked to much because of "Y". We had to this because of "Z". For me, my number 1 goal would be how do I keep Fiala? That may mean making a move or losing a player or a prospect that I don't want to lose. But you know what I would hate to lose more? Fiala. Especially seeing how well Fiala works with Boldy.
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To take it a step further, assuming that Boldy/Rossi are core foundations of our future, the strategy should be how can we put them in positions to succeed as quickly as possible? What if Fiala is the key to maximizing Rossi/Boldy especially early in their career allowing them to not have the sole pressure of driving a line & creating all of the offense? Why is that important to prioritize? I would argue that none of the rest of this works unless Boldy & Rossi hit their projections. Before doing anything else, we should be focusing on that. If Boldy/Rossi are both producing strongly at the NHL level then we can start think about how we touch up our 3rd and 4th lines rather than vice versa.
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Rossi isn't 100% ready yet, but it would be great to see him play 7 or 8 games with Fiala & Boldy to see what that chemistry looks like. Even if it doesn't change your decision, it's more data that you can bring into making an informed decision. And again, we are currently willing to play career AHLer/4th line players with our top skill players and for some reason the inconsistency of that play & the lack of offensive ceiling is something that we can accept... but we can't accept any inconsistency in play from a player like Rossi (who also has offensive upside)? The bar is not replacing Kaprizov... it's Gaudreau... or Hartman. In addition, potentially it pushes Hartman/Gaudreau down the depth chart and allows us to strengthen one of our bottom 6 lines as well.
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Next, we need to focus on making sure that we can absolutely maximize our young assets. How close is Rossi to being ready? How can we get more data to make a more informed decision? Beckman? Same thing. Addison? Ditto. Other AHL defensemen (i.e. Mermis) let's see how it goes. You can tell me oh they are young players and may not be consistent. Do you know who else isn't consistent or high-impact? Benn, Merrill, Bjugstad, and Gaudreau among others. If I have to watch Benn get beat, fall, or not be able to make a basic pass again because of some idea that there is any upside to featuring guys like Benn & Gaudreau in key areas of our lineup?
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No, you're right... we can't play Addison because he makes mistakes and isn't physical. We need to play Benn who can't win puck battles, makes mistakes, and consistently gets pucks bogged down in our own end. You're right, we don't need more puck movers & above-average skaters in our top 6. There are no opportunities for PP improvement with someone who has a skillset that would fit will in that role. There's no reason to get any tape or experience for Addison to understand where he's at and if he could plug in everyday next season.
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McBain? Will he be good? Maybe or maybe not. Is he a better option with more upside on a cheaper contract than countless options that we've tried over the past 2 seasons? 100%. I don't buy that we can't sign McBain to a short 1-way contract. I don't buy that the downside is worth less than the potential upside. I don't buy that we can take flyers and feature borderline NHL players with multi-million dollar contracts like Jost, Rask, or Gaudreau... but we cannot do the same with McBain. It's really not even about if it works out or not.
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The Wild cannot afford to lose any NHL-ready or borderline NHL-ready level talent right now, certainly not center depth. Why are we allowed to dumpster dive for mid-20's NHL players that have already proven that they've struggled at the NHL level and take a chance on their upside but not McBain's? Given the Wild's situation you would really rather spend a couple million in cap space keeping Benn around instead of a player who, if they hit, would actually be a huge win in terms of driving the outcomes that we want to drive navigating these buyouts?
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Fine, you're right. Adding a 22-year-old 6'4 center with skating ability & some offensive skills isn't worth it. I couldn't imagine a worst-case scenario like not being able to bring back Bjugstad next season in a hybrid press box/4th line role. And I mean anyways we just added another undersized center who doesn't have great center skills that we want to spend a couple million dollars to roll the dice on.

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I just don't buy the decision-making or false constraints that are being set up. It's not even about if it works... it's the decision-making and opportunity for potential outcomes. Why are we willing to accept Tyler Jost understanding that there's a good chance it doesn't work out and that it's roster space taken up over the duration of the contract for someone who doesn't fit our plans... but we're not willing to accept some of the potential downsides or risks with a player like McBain? Are we not in the exact position where we have to take risks & swings if we can find scenarios that have the upside to fit our unique circumstances?
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The process behind making it work for a player like McBain is that there is an actual path in which McBain becomes the EXACT archetype of what you were looking to add to your center depth over the next 3-4 years. And in all but the worst of scenarios, the downside is really that he's basically what Bjugstad is now... a big-bodied 4th liner that can play physical & score a little bit more than some typical 4th liners.
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I'll get off my soapbox because I'm not going to convince anyone. I just think that we're embarking down a path where our roster construction where don't retain our top talent, we don't put our top talent in positions to maximize their value & increase the likelihood to succeed, and an unwillingness to take chances on upside versus the willingness to accept a lack of talent in key lineup spots. Again, it's not specifically about McBain, it's really just about the process behind decision-making being made. I would be interested for someone to layout to me why the decision-making path that we are currently on is the one that they think maximizes our ability to either compete this year or compete over the next 3 years during the buy-out era?
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[Northerner]

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That is a fair critique of my response. What I would say is that in my opinion, that is part of the problem. I think an important part of being a leader, really in any business, is being able to articulate and communicate your strategy & vision. As you execute on that strategy & vision, I think it's important to be able to articulate how the decisions you are making fit with the strategy that you have laid out that will lead to the desired outcome (in this case I would think that's a Stanley Cup). In my opinion, Guerin is an extremely poor communicator of what his vision and roadmap is for creating a Stanley Cup-winning Wild team.
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To me, it doesn't seem like Guerin's decision-making process has a long-term plan behind it that is connected to a broader vision. To me, it doesn't appear that he prioritizes our highest ROI assets nor does he care about maximizing them even if internally he makes decisions based on all of the information he has access to that it's the right move long-term. There are consistently decisions that are made & roster moves that compete with previous decisions that have been made and foundational what we thought the impact would be roster construction-wise.
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The way that I currently see it is that 1) we aren't putting ourselves in position or really making an effort to make any roster construction improvements for a playoff run during our short-window prior to the buy-outs kicking in 2) we aren't taking steps that will make it easier for us to navigate difficult cap circumstances over the next 3 years 3) we are prioritizing tieing up the little cap space we do have in areas of our roster that are the easiest to fill cheaply with young players 4) we aren't prioritizing keeping our most important players & our lateral moves are actually moving us in a direction that makes it harder to do so 5) we are prioritizing older/past-prime core contracts instead of our younger players
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I can keep going. There are always responses like this one where you say we can never know and so we should just give the benefit of the doubt. I'm not really sure why we should give BG the benefit of the doubt. What moves has he made to earn the benefit of the doubt? Why shouldn't he be questioned? I am fine going in either directional path that we have the option to take at this moment but we need to pick a path and focus on setting ourselves up to reach that outcome.
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There are always excuses that can be made. We couldn't keep Fiala because of "X". McBain asked to much because of "Y". We had to this because of "Z". For me, my number 1 goal would be how do I keep Fiala? That may mean making a move or losing a player or a prospect that I don't want to lose. But you know what I would hate to lose more? Fiala. Especially seeing how well Fiala works with Boldy.
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To take it a step further, assuming that Boldy/Rossi are core foundations of our future, the strategy should be how can we put them in positions to succeed as quickly as possible? What if Fiala is the key to maximizing Rossi/Boldy especially early in their career allowing them to not have the sole pressure of driving a line & creating all of the offense? Why is that important to prioritize? I would argue that none of the rest of this works unless Boldy & Rossi hit their projections. Before doing anything else, we should be focusing on that. If Boldy/Rossi are both producing strongly at the NHL level then we can start think about how we touch up our 3rd and 4th lines rather than vice versa.
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Rossi isn't 100% ready yet, but it would be great to see him play 7 or 8 games with Fiala & Boldy to see what that chemistry looks like. Even if it doesn't change your decision, it's more data that you can bring into making an informed decision. And again, we are currently willing to play career AHLer/4th line players with our top skill players and for some reason the inconsistency of that play & the lack of offensive ceiling is something that we can accept... but we can't accept any inconsistency in play from a player like Rossi (who also has offensive upside)? The bar is not replacing Kaprizov... it's Gaudreau... or Hartman. In addition, potentially it pushes Hartman/Gaudreau down the depth chart and allows us to strengthen one of our bottom 6 lines as well.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Next, we need to focus on making sure that we can absolutely maximize our young assets. How close is Rossi to being ready? How can we get more data to make a more informed decision? Beckman? Same thing. Addison? Ditto. Other AHL defensemen (i.e. Mermis) let's see how it goes. You can tell me oh they are young players and may not be consistent. Do you know who else isn't consistent or high-impact? Benn, Merrill, Bjugstad, and Gaudreau among others. If I have to watch Benn get beat, fall, or not be able to make a basic pass again because of some idea that there is any upside to featuring guys like Benn & Gaudreau in key areas of our lineup?
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
No, you're right... we can't play Addison because he makes mistakes and isn't physical. We need to play Benn who can't win puck battles, makes mistakes, and consistently gets pucks bogged down in our own end. You're right, we don't need more puck movers & above-average skaters in our top 6. There are no opportunities for PP improvement with someone who has a skillset that would fit will in that role. There's no reason to get any tape or experience for Addison to understand where he's at and if he could plug in everyday next season.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
McBain? Will he be good? Maybe or maybe not. Is he a better option with more upside on a cheaper contract than countless options that we've tried over the past 2 seasons? 100%. I don't buy that we can't sign McBain to a short 1-way contract. I don't buy that the downside is worth less than the potential upside. I don't buy that we can take flyers and feature borderline NHL players with multi-million dollar contracts like Jost, Rask, or Gaudreau... but we cannot do the same with McBain. It's really not even about if it works out or not.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

The Wild cannot afford to lose any NHL-ready or borderline NHL-ready level talent right now, certainly not center depth. Why are we allowed to dumpster dive for mid-20's NHL players that have already proven that they've struggled at the NHL level and take a chance on their upside but not McBain's? Given the Wild's situation you would really rather spend a couple million in cap space keeping Benn around instead of a player who, if they hit, would actually be a huge win in terms of driving the outcomes that we want to drive navigating these buyouts?
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Fine, you're right. Adding a 22-year-old 6'4 center with skating ability & some offensive skills isn't worth it. I couldn't imagine a worst-case scenario like not being able to bring back Bjugstad next season in a hybrid press box/4th line role. And I mean anyways we just added another undersized center who doesn't have great center skills that we want to spend a couple million dollars to roll the dice on.

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

I just don't buy the decision-making or false constraints that are being set up. It's not even about if it works... it's the decision-making and opportunity for potential outcomes. Why are we willing to accept Tyler Jost understanding that there's a good chance it doesn't work out and that it's roster space taken up over the duration of the contract for someone who doesn't fit our plans... but we're not willing to accept some of the potential downsides or risks with a player like McBain? Are we not in the exact position where we have to take risks & swings if we can find scenarios that have the upside to fit our unique circumstances?
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
The process behind making it work for a player like McBain is that there is an actual path in which McBain becomes the EXACT archetype of what you were looking to add to your center depth over the next 3-4 years. And in all but the worst of scenarios, the downside is really that he's basically what Bjugstad is now... a big-bodied 4th liner that can play physical & score a little bit more than some typical 4th liners.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

I'll get off my soapbox because I'm not going to convince anyone. I just think that we're embarking down a path where our roster construction where don't retain our top talent, we don't put our top talent in positions to maximize their value & increase the likelihood to succeed, and an unwillingness to take chances on upside versus the willingness to accept a lack of talent in key lineup spots. Again, it's not specifically about McBain, it's really just about the process behind decision-making being made. I would be interested for someone to layout to me why the decision-making path that we are currently on is the one that they think maximizes our ability to either compete this year or compete over the next 3 years during the buy-out era?
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Damn bro, do realy type all this stuff out?

 

[Nino Noderreiter]

Damn bro, do realy type all this stuff out?

Most of the time voice and edit, but for me I like writing as it helps me think through ideas and potentially others find parts of the content interesting as well.

I am not normally a person who critiques GMs. I rarely critiqued Fletcher for example if ever. I think this is an important counter idea to bring to this board. We will see if I am right or wrong.

The closest thing I’ve heard to a strategy is that the locker room and culture matters and is a priority. Those comments & Russo’s comments around the Wild front office being near the league bottom in terms of analytics and usage of analytics in decision-making and the stacking number of weird scenarios that seem to come down to BG passing on players not because they aren’t the best option or a good option for the team long term but on the basis of if they will structure things on BG’s terms.

Maybe these are guys who aren’t locker room fits and it’s worth it to choose to play 4th line and AHL players with some of the best talent that we’ve had in franchise history over figuring out how to make things work to prioritize having the most amount of talent in our lineup. That remains to be seen… but I think if you read between the lines the reason for a lot of the confusion and weirdness that many on this board do point out is that BG’s strategy is actually really simple.

He signs and adds guys he likes and/or has a gut feeling about or prior relationship with and gets rid of guys who he doesn’t like especially ones who don’t play on his terms.

 

[Wabit]

Most of the time voice and edit, but for me I like writing as it helps me think through ideas and potentially others find parts of the content interesting as well.

I am not normally a person who critiques GMs. I rarely critiqued Fletcher for example if ever. I think this is an important counter idea to bring to this board. We will see if I am right or wrong.

The closest thing I’ve heard to a strategy is that the locker room and culture matters and is a priority. Those comments & Russo’s comments around the Wild front office being near the league bottom in terms of analytics and usage of analytics in decision-making and the stacking number of weird scenarios that seem to come down to BG passing on players not because they aren’t the best option or a good option for the team long term but on the basis of if they will structure things on BG’s terms.

Maybe these are guys who aren’t locker room fits and it’s worth it to choose to play 4th line and AHL players with some of the best talent that we’ve had in franchise history over figuring out how to make things work to prioritize having the most amount of talent in our lineup. That remains to be seen… but I think if you read between the lines the reason for a lot of the confusion and weirdness that many on this board do point out is that BG’s strategy is actually really simple.

He signs and adds guys he likes and/or has a gut feeling about or prior relationship with and gets rid of guys who he doesn’t like especially ones who don’t play on his terms.

I agree with a lot of the things in essays you've posted today.

GMBG to me seems like the kid on the playground that just picks his friends and guys he can boss around over quality players that make his team better. It's fine for setting up a beer league team with the intent of just having fun, not so great when it comes to trying to win a championship.

 

[TaLoN]

GMBG to me seems like the kid on the playground that just picks his friends and guys he can boss around over quality players that make his team better. It's fine for setting up a beer league team with the intent of just having fun, not so great when it comes to trying to win a championship.

I don't know if I'd go that far. I still think we don't have a real feel for what he's doing though.

 

[Wabit]

I don't know if I'd go that far. I still think we don't have a real feel for what he's doing though.

He's in his 3rd season as the team's GM. Everyone on the team except Dumba, Rask, and Zucc (maybe an ELC?) was signed to a contract by him. He's made 11 trades involving players (not counting draft day pick trades), some are AHLers. 2 buyouts.

Maybe we don't have a real feel for what he's doing, because he doesn't know what he's doing?

 

[thestonedkoala]

He's in his 3rd season as the team's GM. Everyone on the team except Dumba, Rask, and Zucc (maybe an ELC?) was signed to a contract by him. He's made 11 trades involving players (not counting draft day pick trades), some are AHLers. 2 buyouts.

Maybe we don't have a real feel for what he's doing, because he doesn't know what he's doing?

At least Fenton had a plan.

 

[TaLoN]

He's in his 3rd season as the team's GM. Everyone on the team except Dumba, Rask, and Zucc (maybe an ELC?) was signed to a contract by him. He's made 11 trades involving players (not counting draft day pick trades), some are AHLers. 2 buyouts.

Maybe we don't have a real feel for what he's doing, because he doesn't know what he's doing?

Oh that's possible, but I am not ready to say that's a guarantee.

At least Fenton had a plan.

His plan involved being a complete ass to everyone inside and out of the organization.... and doing so mostly from the Bahamas.

 

[thestonedkoala]

His plan involved being a complete ass to everyone inside and out of the organization.... and doing so mostly from the Bahamas.

He tried to trade Parise, moved high price vets, at least threw a dart at the wall on trying to fix the center position. Argue all you want, but Fenton is a big reason why Kaprizov came over, why the Wild have Zuccarello.

 

[Wabit]

He tried to trade Parise, moved high price vets, at least threw a dart at the wall on trying to fix the center position. Argue all you want, but Fenton is a big reason why Kaprizov came over, why the Wild have Zuccarello.

Boldy (pretty much a no brainer pick), Fiala, and Hartman too...