Minnesota Wild General Discussion - 2023-24

[AKL]

Guerin has had the 19-20, 20-21, 21-22, and 22-23 seasons. I’m not saying 6-7 years for a prospect to develop. I’m saying 6-7 years of him drafting players and building a pool of players that can be impactful.

Well the first thing to address here is I never claimed Guerin was a good GM.

Second thing is his first draft was 2020, which is THREE calendar years ago, and FOUR drafts ago, so if your expectation is that his pool starts contributing in 6-7 years, that would be around 2026-2027.

If you're consistently drafting in the middle/late part of the first round, you're not going to get many players who make an impact 2-4 years after they were drafted. Same goes for anyone in the second round. These guys often take 5-7 years to be actual impact (read: top six or top four) players in the NHL, if they ever get there.

So you can't make a blanket statement like "he's been drafting for 6-7 years, so SOMEONE should be an impact player by now" because 1) he hasn't been drafting for 6-7 years and 2) not all of the players came into the pool at the same time 6-7 years ago.

At best, by 2025-26, the last year of Kaprizov's contract, we could expect maybe 2-3 top six/top four players out of our current pool (thinking like Faber, Khusnutdinov/Rossi, maybe Yurov)? And those aren't even necessarily top line/top pairing expectations. We're not drafting MacKinnons, Makars and Rantanens here. We have a pool full of middle of the lineup guys. That means we're still going to be relying on Kaprizov, Ek and Boldy more than anyone else. Maybe we get lucky and Yurov is a first liner a la Boldy four years after his draft.

 

[Spurgeon]

Well the first thing to address here is I never claimed Guerin was a good GM.

Second thing is his first draft was 2020, which is THREE calendar years ago, and FOUR drafts ago, so if your expectation is that his pool starts contributing in 6-7 years, that would be around 2026-2027.

If you're consistently drafting in the middle/late part of the first round, you're not going to get many players who make an impact 2-4 years after they were drafted. Same goes for anyone in the second round. These guys often take 5-7 years to be actual impact (read: top six or top four) players in the NHL, if they ever get there.

So you can't make a blanket statement like "he's been drafting for 6-7 years, so SOMEONE should be an impact player by now" because 1) he hasn't been drafting for 6-7 years and 2) not all of the players came into the pool at the same time 6-7 years ago.

At best, by 2025-26, the last year of Kaprizov's contract, we could expect maybe 2-3 top six/top four players out of our current pool (thinking like Faber, Khusnutdinov/Rossi, maybe Yurov)? And those aren't even necessarily top line/top pairing expectations. We're not drafting MacKinnons, Makars and Rantanens here. We have a pool full of middle of the lineup guys. That means we're still going to be relying on Kaprizov, Ek and Boldy more than anyone else. Maybe we get lucky and Yurov is a first liner a la Boldy four years after his draft.

He inherited the 2019 draft, so that’s where I think it’s fair to begin the comparison. Regardless, that’s still a significant amount of time to build up a prospect pool, which it appears they have.

In the Top 6, you’ve got a core of Kaprizov, Ek, and Boldy.

On the defensive side you’ve got Brodin and Spurgeon in the Top 4.

I think there’s a decent chance of Rossi, Yurov, Khusnutdinov, and Ohgren developing into middle-6 players by then.

Faber is very likely to be a Top 4 defenseman

Then you’ve got 1-2 of Peart, Lambos, Hunt, Spacek, and ROR that should be bottom pairing defensemen.

This is excluding all of the other B-tier and 2023 prospects that still have a chance of making the roster.

25-26 cap is $92M.

RFA Contract estimates:
Wallstedt - $1.5M
Gus - $3.5M
Faber - $3M
Rossi - $2.5M

ELCs:
Khusnutdinov - $950K
Yurov - $950K
Ohgren - $920K
Peart - $900K
Lambos/Spacek - $860K

Kap - X - X
Ohgren - Ek - Boldy
Khusnutdinov - Rossi - Yurov
X - Gaudreau - X

Brodin - Spurgeon
X - Faber
Peart - Spacek
Lambos

Wallstedt
Gus

This roster has $38M in cap space. That’s a significant amount of money that Guerin will be able to work with over these next two offseasons to fill in these gaps. Add Lindholm and Hanifin to that roster and you’ve still got around $21M-23M to work with.

 

[TaLoN]

ELCs:
Khusnutdinov - $950K
Yurov - $950K
Ohgren - $920K
Peart - $900K
Lambos/Spacek - $860K

I'll be shocked if they're all on the roster by '25

 

[Wabit]

I'll be shocked if they're all on the roster by '25

Well the 2 Russians will be NHL or I'm staying in the KHL. It's the right timeframe (his d+4 season) for Ohgren. The 2 d-men could really be any of the 10 that MN has to choose from, maybe up the price by to a $1.2m bridge and not an ELC.

 

[AKL]

He inherited the 2019 draft, so that’s where I think it’s fair to begin the comparison.

He inherited everything that happened prior to him joining the team, but I'm not going to give him credit or hold it against him for draft picks that he and his staff had nothing to do with. That's not how that works either.

Regardless, that’s still a significant amount of time to build up a prospect pool, which it appears they have.

In the Top 6, you’ve got a core of Kaprizov, Ek, and Boldy.

On the defensive side you’ve got Brodin and Spurgeon in the Top 4.

I think there’s a decent chance of Rossi, Yurov, Khusnutdinov, and Ohgren developing into middle-6 players by then.

Faber is very likely to be a Top 4 defenseman

Then you’ve got 1-2 of Peart, Lambos, Hunt, Spacek, and ROR that should be bottom pairing defensemen.

This is excluding all of the other B-tier and 2023 prospects that still have a chance of making the roster.

25-26 cap is $92M.

RFA Contract estimates:
Wallstedt - $1.5M
Gus - $3.5M
Faber - $3M
Rossi - $2.5M

ELCs:
Khusnutdinov - $950K
Yurov - $950K
Ohgren - $920K
Peart - $900K
Lambos/Spacek - $860K

Kap - X - X
Ohgren - Ek - Boldy
Khusnutdinov - Rossi - Yurov
X - Gaudreau - X

Brodin - Spurgeon
X - Faber
Peart - Spacek
Lambos

Wallstedt
Gus

This roster has $38M in cap space. That’s a significant amount of money that Guerin will be able to work with over these next two offseasons to fill in these gaps. Add Lindholm and Hanifin to that roster and you’ve still got around $21M-23M to work with.

And with all of this you're still operating under the same "logic" and assumptions that said Rossi was going to be our first line center last season. And he may not even be our first line center this season. That's my point. It's not that you don't have a lot of cap space if you just put all of the prospects in the pool on to the roster next year, it's that it's entirely unrealistic to put all of the prospects in the pool on to the roster next year.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Minnesota has a lot of B level prospects but no elite guys outside of Wallstedt. I'm wary of Yurov and Khus

 

[Wabit]

Minnesota has a lot of B level prospects but no elite guys outside of Wallstedt. I'm wary of Yurov and Khus

I disagree with this, but it could be a semantics thing due to the different personal rating scale we all have.

I think they have some "A" prospects in guys like Ohgren and Stramel. I put guys like Beckman and Milne in the "B" prospect category. Outside of Wallstedt, I also don't see the elite or blue chip prospects.

I also have a "boom (top-6) or bust" category for guys like Rossi and Marat K. On paper they are "A" prospects, but their size/skillset limits the lineup spots they can effectively fill. Maybe a better wording is they can't "play down" in the lineup if they struggle at the top of the lineup.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Eriksson Ek got a 99 overall Summer of Chel MSP card for NHL 23 hockey ultimate team. I will for sure be building it. I believe that is the first Minnesota Wild player this year to get a 99 overall. Kaprizov has a 98 draft gems card and an x-factor card that builds up to a 98.

 

[Wabit]

Eriksson Ek got a 99 overall Summer of Chel MSP card for NHL 23 hockey ultimate team. I will for sure be building it. I believe that is the first Minnesota Wild player this year to get a 99 overall. Kaprizov has a 98 draft gems card and an x-factor card that builds up to a 98.

It is the most Wild thing to happen. The game is in the clearance bin because the season is over and the new game will be out in a couple of months. The good stuff doesn't happen until it's meaningless (relatively).

 

[Digitalbooya]

It is the most Wild thing to happen. The game is in the clearance bin because the season is over and the new game will be out in a couple of months. The good stuff doesn't happen until it's meaningless (relatively).

99s are pretty hard to come by outside of icon power ups and summer of chel MSPs. The whole draft gems promo only had one 99 and that was Tage Thompson. I think Gus will get a summer of chel card once he signs as well. Will be interesting to see if it is an MSP or if it's like 94-96 overall non-MSP card.

 

[Minnewildsota]

99s are pretty hard to come by outside of icon power ups and summer of chel MSPs. The whole draft gems promo only had one 99 and that was Tage Thompson. I think Gus will get a summer of chel card once he signs as well. Will be interesting to see if it is an MSP or if it's like 94-96 overall non-MSP card.

What the hell did you just say? lol

 

[Digitalbooya]

What the hell did you just say? lol

Hockey Ultimate Team - a mode where you can collect cards to form your team and play against other people. You get cards by completing challenges, opening packs, buying from the auction house or completing sets

MSP = master set player

Icon power ups - legendary players (gretzky, lemieux, etc) that can have their card overall increased in the game using power up collectibles or in game coins

Draft Gems - promo where they released cards they deemed to be "draft gems" like Kaprizov in the 5th round

Summer of Chel - last promo before NHL 24, usually has to do with either players that were signed, traded, or need a new card in the game

Overalls - the best players are 99 overall. Usually 96-99 overall players are what you want on your team at this stage in NHL 23 hockey ultimate team.

My team:

98 Kaprizov - 99 Thompson - 97 Pavelski
96 Smyth - 98 Sundin - 96 Perry
96 Naslund - 97 Crosby - 95 Kakko
95 Connor - 96 Geekie - 95 Larmer

98 Pronger - 96 Faulk
96 Weegar - 94 Josi
94 Romanov - 93 C Miller

95 Markstrom
94 Turco

 

[Sad People]

I wish NHL was on PC. Last time i checked it wasnt.

 

[Puhis]

I wish NHL was on PC. Last time i checked it wasnt.

Still ain't.

 

[Digitalbooya]

I wish NHL was on PC. Last time i checked it wasnt.

It's not. There are also downsides to PC having these games if they are not cross platform. Fewer people to play. Fewer cards to buy. I got an xbox just for the purpose of playing NHL/Madden. PC has Madden, but I ran into the issues previously described.

 

[Sad People]

It's not. There are also downsides to PC having these games if they are not cross platform. Fewer people to play. Fewer cards to buy. I got an xbox just for the purpose of playing NHL/Madden. PC has Madden, but I ran into the issues previously described.

Yeah I can only assume NHL sells the least amount of copies of all the big sports games so that may be why it’s not worth it to port over to PC.

 

[BagHead]

It's not. There are also downsides to PC having these games if they are not cross platform. Fewer people to play. Fewer cards to buy. I got an xbox just for the purpose of playing NHL/Madden. PC has Madden, but I ran into the issues previously described.

Those downsides sound suspiciously like upsides.

It's far from EA's NHL, but I've heard this game is fun, like a silly version of NHL 94. I'm personally keeping it on my watchlist for now, until it's out of early access.

 

[Wasted Talent]

Any predictions? I'm guessing (hoping?) multi-year means 3 or more to buy some UFA years.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Any predictions? I'm guessing (hoping?) multi-year means 3 or more to buy some UFA years.

3 years $3.75M AAV

 

[Wild11MN]

3 years $3.75M AAV

Feels like this is the answer to me as well.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

2 years is right to UFA, correct?

 

[Spurgeon]

3 years $3.75M AAV

If they were between 2 years $3.5M and 3 years $3.75M, then I’m happy they went with the latter. Having him locked up through 25-26 at a reasonable cap hit is crucial. Especially if he plays anywhere near the level he did last year.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

$3.75M leaves $1.55M left for Addison and another forward. And that's with no cushion.

Should be interesting.

 

[Wasted Talent]

$3.75M AAV, 3 years, 5 team no trade clause for final year

Wild, Filip Gustavsson agree to 3-year, $11.25 million deal

Gustavsson went 22-9-7 in 2022-23, recording a 2.10 GAA and .931 SV%.

theathletic.com

 

[keppel146]

I’m liking the Gus deal. Goalies hopefully set and at a reasonable price for the foreseeable future.