Minnesota Wild General Discussion - 2023-24

[MNRube]

224 players are drafted every year.

There aren't 224 new players in the NHL every year.

A lot of those drafted players aren't amounting to much, and that's not just on us (or Brackett).

Probably shouldn't need to be said, but here we are.

You’d like one of his 9 2nd rounders in the last 4 years to hit. Thats a lot of opportunity to find a hidden gem. Not looking great so far but maybe Heidt will be that guy

 

[MuckOG]

You’d like one of his 9 2nd rounders in the last 4 years to hit. Thats a lot of opportunity to find a hidden gem. Not looking great so far but maybe Heidt will be that guy

Marat also.

Also, its 7 2nd rounders in the past 4 drafts, 9 if you go back 5 years

 

[MNRube]

Marat also.

Also, its 7 2nd rounders in the past 4 drafts, 9 if you go back 5 years

True. If Marat & Heidt become 3rd liners, I’d say that is acceptable but underwhelming. There are usually a couple genuine stars taken every 2nd round

 

[thestonedkoala]

224 players are drafted every year.

There aren't 224 new players in the NHL every year.

A lot of those drafted players aren't amounting to much, and that's not just on us (or Brackett).

Probably shouldn't need to be said, but here we are.

That's correct, I don't think that's up for debate. There aren't 224 new players in the NHL or even the AHL every year. And most of those drafted players don't amount to much, if you hit on one or two guys in the later rounds every 3 years or so, then you're a good scout.

What this argument has devolved from was if Brackett was a good/great scout or not. He's an average scout so far based on his record in Vancouver and in Minnesota. So far. He hasn't swung and missed out on a bunch of guys but he also hasn't really hit a home run yet either. To keep up with the analogy, he's hit a bunch of singles and maybe a double. Yurov and possibly Wallstedt could be home run picks and Heidt if developed right could end up being a grand slam. But the jury is still out and I find that if Brackett is fired or is replaced, that's fine. He hasn't really moved the needle much, if any at all. Some of that is because of Guerin and his...bizarre decisions, but again Brackett hasn't made any head-scratchers, but he hasn't made any Kaprizov or even Stoner/Scandella picks yet.

No pick outside of the top 5 (and sometimes only the top 2 or 3) is a slam dunk pick.

Then why have rankings?

 

[MuckOG]

Then why have rankings?

Because they generate clicks and fan conversation?

 

[Minnewildsota]

Then why have rankings?

Because it's fun? Why have Power Rankings for teams? It doesn't mean anything but it gives people something to read

Because they generate clicks and fan conversation?

Exactly this.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

I also want to point out Novak didn't have "injuries" - he had f'in cancer.

f*** cancer.

So who are we trading in the next day or so?

I’ll go with Dewar, Duhaime, and one LD prospect.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Because they generate clicks and fan conversation?

So essentially, if we picked McMichael over Boldy fans wouldn't be upset, because all prospects are ranked the same?

 

[MuckOG]

So essentially, if we picked McMichael over Boldy fans wouldn't be upset, because all prospects are ranked the same?

That's not what I said. There are lots of rankings, the ones posted on websites are mainly for the fans to kick around. Teams do their own rankings based on their own evaluations. These don't become public and may or may not resemble the ones we look at, especially when we get deeper in the draft.

 

[thestonedkoala]

That's not what I said. There are lots of rankings, the ones posted on websites are mainly for the fans to kick around. Teams do their own rankings based on their own evaluations. These don't become public and may or may not resemble the ones we look at, especially when we get deeper in the draft.

So if they said they had McMichael over Boldy, would you consider that a good scout or a bad scout?

 

[MuckOG]

So if they said they had McMichael over Boldy, would you consider that a good scout or a bad scout?

A better question would be if they had Kakko, Dach or Turcotte ranked ahead of Boldy, would you consider that a good scout or a bad scout? Because obviously some team scouts did based on how the draft turned out.

Scouting is an inexact science, and hindsight is always 20/20.

My bet is that once you get about half way through the 2nd round, just about every team's boards look vastly different. Teams don't scout all 200+ players that get drafted.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

So essentially, if we picked McMichael over Boldy fans wouldn't be upset, because all prospects are ranked the same?

That's not even close to what we are saying.

 

[TaLoN]

That's correct, I don't think that's up for debate. There aren't 224 new players in the NHL or even the AHL every year. And most of those drafted players don't amount to much, if you hit on one or two guys in the later rounds every 3 years or so, then you're a good scout.

What this argument has devolved from was if Brackett was a good/great scout or not. He's an average scout so far based on his record in Vancouver and in Minnesota. So far. He hasn't swung and missed out on a bunch of guys but he also hasn't really hit a home run yet either. To keep up with the analogy, he's hit a bunch of singles and maybe a double. Yurov and possibly Wallstedt could be home run picks and Heidt if developed right could end up being a grand slam. But the jury is still out and I find that if Brackett is fired or is replaced, that's fine. He hasn't really moved the needle much, if any at all. Some of that is because of Guerin and his...bizarre decisions, but again Brackett hasn't made any head-scratchers, but he hasn't made any Kaprizov or even Stoner/Scandella picks yet.



Then why have rankings?

WTH does prospect rankings have to do with a prospect being slam dunk or not?

A slam dunk prospect is one that CAN'T fail. Very few of those.

 

[JiricekSaveUs]

I think Brackett has done a good job. Yurov and Wallstedt may be top of the lineup players.there’s going to be a bunch of other NHLers (Heidt, Ohgren, Khusnutdinov) from the drafts as well. It’s not like he’s been picking top 10 every year. He’s more than beat the expected value for his picks. Everyone is going to whiff, and I have a feeling the Stranel pick was a Guerin thing.

 

[MuckOG]

I think Brackett has done a good job. Yurov and Wallstedt may be top of the lineup players.there’s going to be a bunch of other NHLers (Heidt, Ohgren, Khusnutdinov) from the drafts as well. It’s not like he’s been picking top 10 every year. He’s more than beat the expected value for his picks. Everyone is going to whiff, and I have a feeling the Stranel pick was a Guerin thing.

Brackett all but said this after the pick was made.

 

[thestonedkoala]

WTH does prospect rankings have to do with a prospect being slam dunk or not?

A slam dunk prospect is one that CAN'T fail. Very few of those.

I don't see a slam dunk prospect like that at all; which is probably why we are having this disagreement.

A good example was Rossi in 2020; that was a slam dunk if there ever was one. He fit a need, but his talent was also there. I guarantee you that if they passed on Rossi for someone like Askarov (which I believed was linked to Minnesota) or Jarvis, fans would have torn Minnesota to shreds.

Another good example is last year when Perreault or Stenberg or whoever was there and Minnesota decided to draft Stramel over them. Like I know I joined in, but honestly I'm done with it. It was a bad pick especially with the talent still there. Perreault was the obvious choice and given his rankings and such should have been the easy pick. We'll see who develops, but it doesn't stop fans from blasting Guerin over it.

A better question would be if they had Kakko, Dach or Turcotte ranked ahead of Boldy, would you consider that a good scout or a bad scout? Because obviously some team scouts did based on how the draft turned out.

Scouting is an inexact science, and hindsight is always 20/20.

My bet is that once you get about half way through the 2nd round, just about every team's boards look vastly different. Teams don't scout all 200+ players that get drafted.

Given that most fans want Hextell fired in LA, that would be a bad scout. Ranger fans are equally upset regarding Kakko (but he was a consensus number 2 guy). Also didn't Chicago have turn over since Dach was taken?

Yes, we know that scouting is an inexact science. But how do you determine who is a good scout or a bad scout or an average scout? You got the bad scouts down pretty good. But most scouts are average if not just mediocre. They hit on the picks they should, maybe get one or two prospects every couple of years to contribute and that's about it. So far that's what Brackett is shaping up. Good scouts (and to an extent good organizations) tend to find guys on a consistent basis and can find a star or superstar after the first round. There aren't a lot of good scouts out there. There are a bunch of average ones and that's fine. Craig Bonner is one of those guys that I'd say is a good scout. Al Murray is another good scout. If you don't know who they are I'd look up who they've selected.

 

[MuckOG]

I don't see a slam dunk prospect like that at all; which is probably why we are having this disagreement.

A good example was Rossi in 2020; that was a slam dunk if there ever was one. He fit a need, but his talent was also there. I guarantee you that if they passed on Rossi for someone like Askarov (which I believed was linked to Minnesota) or Jarvis, fans would have torn Minnesota to shreds.

Another good example is last year when Perreault or Stenberg or whoever was there and Minnesota decided to draft Stramel over them. Like I know I joined in, but honestly I'm done with it. It was a bad pick especially with the talent still there. Perreault was the obvious choice and given his rankings and such should have been the easy pick. We'll see who develops, but it doesn't stop fans from blasting Guerin over it.



Given that most fans want Hextell fired in LA, that would be a bad scout. Ranger fans are equally upset regarding Kakko (but he was a consensus number 2 guy). Also didn't Chicago have turn over since Dach was taken?

Yes, we know that scouting is an inexact science. But how do you determine who is a good scout or a bad scout or an average scout? You got the bad scouts down pretty good. But most scouts are average if not just mediocre. They hit on the picks they should, maybe get one or two prospects every couple of years to contribute and that's about it. So far that's what Brackett is shaping up. Good scouts (and to an extent good organizations) tend to find guys on a consistent basis and can find a star or superstar after the first round. There aren't a lot of good scouts out there. There are a bunch of average ones and that's fine. Craig Bonner is one of those guys that I'd say is a good scout. Al Murray is another good scout. If you don't know who they are I'd look up who they've selected.

Something else we're not discussing is what happens AFTER a player is drafted. The amateur scouts have nothing to do with the development of these players. Some teams are better than others at developing prospects, sometimes things happen to these prospects in the years following their draft that hurt their development (ie injuries, personal issues, etc.)...so putting all the blame on the scouts for these prospects not turning into great players is missing the boat. This is where you have to look at the organization, as a whole.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Something else we're not discussing is what happens AFTER a player is drafted. The amateur scouts have nothing to do with the development of these players. Some teams are better than others at developing prospects, sometimes things happen to these prospects in the years following their draft that hurt their development (ie injuries, personal issues, etc.)...so putting all the blame on the scouts for these prospects not turning into great players is missing the boat. This is where you have to look at the organization, as a whole.

And that's fair; which is why I have put a heavy criticism on how bad Minnesota's development team has been. But sometimes you can give them a great prospect and the team just shits the bed with them.

 

[Wasted Talent]

And that's fair; which is why I have put a heavy criticism on how bad Minnesota's development team has been. But sometimes you can give them a great prospect and the team just shits the bed with them.

Which great prospects are you referring to?

 

[Minnewildsota]

I don't see a slam dunk prospect like that at all; which is probably why we are having this disagreement.

A good example was Rossi in 2020; that was a slam dunk if there ever was one. He fit a need, but his talent was also there. I guarantee you that if they passed on Rossi for someone like Askarov (which I believed was linked to Minnesota) or Jarvis, fans would have torn Minnesota to shreds.

Another good example is last year when Perreault or Stenberg or whoever was there and Minnesota decided to draft Stramel over them. Like I know I joined in, but honestly I'm done with it. It was a bad pick especially with the talent still there. Perreault was the obvious choice and given his rankings and such should have been the easy pick. We'll see who develops, but it doesn't stop fans from blasting Guerin over it.



Given that most fans want Hextell fired in LA, that would be a bad scout. Ranger fans are equally upset regarding Kakko (but he was a consensus number 2 guy). Also didn't Chicago have turn over since Dach was taken?

Yes, we know that scouting is an inexact science. But how do you determine who is a good scout or a bad scout or an average scout? You got the bad scouts down pretty good. But most scouts are average if not just mediocre. They hit on the picks they should, maybe get one or two prospects every couple of years to contribute and that's about it. So far that's what Brackett is shaping up. Good scouts (and to an extent good organizations) tend to find guys on a consistent basis and can find a star or superstar after the first round. There aren't a lot of good scouts out there. There are a bunch of average ones and that's fine. Craig Bonner is one of those guys that I'd say is a good scout. Al Murray is another good scout. If you don't know who they are I'd look up who they've selected.

You’re conflating a slam dunk choice with a no-breaker choice.

A slam dunk is, essentially, a can’t miss shot.

A no-brainer is a choice that you, well, don’t have to put much thought into.

Crosby? A slam dunk.

Kappo? At the time, a no-brainer.

 

[BagHead]

lol I always enjoy your logic. Players that have done well? Oh those were slam dunk picks. No need to give credit.
A pick didn't turn out as hope? Well, that's just poor drafting.

You forget that with Wallstadt, Rossi, and Heidt that there were numerous other teams that could have drafted any of them.

They identified Wallstadt as an elite talent, they could have targeted Cossa and tried to move up for him.

Not to mention, drafting Kump before Heidt could be seen as a pretty shrewd move, if they thought Kump would be drafted before pick #64, when they took Heidt.

Good full post, but I especially wanted to respond to the bolded part. This is something I find to be true, and it's also what Brackett did with Yurov and Ohgren (reportedly, I wasn't there). If you can get two guys you really want instead of one, and you're sure the risk of missing out on the better one is low, waiting to draft the better one is a shrewd move. It's possible for someone to get too "cute" with their drafting, so you really need someone with good risk assessment skills if you're going to let them do this strategy and, so far, I think Brackett has that skill.

Brackett's got a sterling reputation, but I also don't know that it's been fully earned yet. He definitely deserves credit for the picks he's made without GM interference, I just don't know how good those picks are yet. I can't wait to find out!

 

[TaLoN]

Most development happens outside team hands.

 

[TaLoN]

You’re conflating a slam dunk choice with a no-breaker choice.

A slam dunk is, essentially, a can’t miss shot.

A no-brainer is a choice that you, well, don’t have to put much thought into.

Crosby? A slam dunk.

Kappo? At the time, a no-brainer.

Boldy was a no-brainer choice

 

[MuckOG]

Most development happens outside team hands.

This is true, and why I would like to see the Wild sign Stramel after the NCAA season because for whatever reasons, he's not showing any progress with UW. Maybe he is what he is and there is nothing the Wild can do, but I think they are at the point where they have to try something. Get him down to Iowa and see if they can turn shit into shinola.

 

[AKL]

Duhaime gone