Minnesota Wild General Discussion - 2022-23

[Digitalbooya]

last year GA 253, this year so far GA 130 in 45 gms. about the same. lets blame the vets and goalie for not getting the job done if mgmt thought a rookie wasn't ready they'd send him back down. this team is going nowhere until GA drops significantly

Dumba has the lowest GA/60 on the team all strengths.

1. Dumba
2. Merrill
3. Spurgeon
4. Brodin
5. Addison
6. Middleton
7. Goligoski

ES:
1. Dumba
2. Middleton
3. Brodin
4. Spurgeon
5. Merrill
6. Goligoski
7. Addison

 

[Digitalbooya]

There’s a time to bring up young guys…when they are ready. You pick the fruit when it’s ripe. If you do it too early, you ruin the whole thing. Rossi, and especially Hunt and ROR, are settling in and starting to play well in the AHL, but none of them are dominating. Physically, they are doing ok, and surviving much better than they did in previous years. I can see Rossi getting a call up if a C goes down, or a C is traded. Same with the two Dman, but Mermis, or maybe Sustr, might be a better fit for this year.
Walker is a different story, to me. He is older than the others, has been the best player down in Iowa, and is versatile positionally. He is not strong , either, but has learned to play in spite of it, and does play in front of the net. Is decent defensively, and smart. I can see him as an offensive forward option right now, though even there it’s not like he lit up the scoresheet when he was up. To me, it’s more of an eye test thing. He had on goal called back, I think, and made some nice set ups, hit some iron, etc.. unlike Rossi, he can skate himself out of trouble.

Maybe the question is: what is dominating? Do players have to dominate in order to get a call up? Rossi is point per game. Walker is point per game. I’m not sure what dominating would be for Hunt or O’Rourke but both have looked pretty solid. Wallstedt is getting to the dominant point IMO as well. Over his last 5 games, his lowest sv % is .947

I’d like to at least see what we have in Hunt/O’Rourke at the NHL level. It’s not like Middleton/Merrill/Goligoski would be extremely missed for 2-3 games, especially if the guy your giving a cup of coffee too is the same player type (Middleton:ROR, Merrill:Hunt).

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Dumba has the lowest GA/60 on the team all strengths.

1. Dumba
2. Merrill
3. Spurgeon
4. Brodin
5. Addison
6. Middleton
7. Goligoski

ES:
1. Dumba
2. Middleton
3. Brodin
4. Spurgeon
5. Merrill
6. Goligoski
7. Addison

ES:
5th best xGA
6th best SCA
7th best HDCA
1st best on-ice save %

 

[Digitalbooya]

ES:
5th best xGA
6th best SCA
7th best HDCA
1st best on-ice save %

These numbers are meaningless when you account for who is playing against the other team’s top offensive players vs grinders.

Those stats, but Brodin:
ES (per 60):
7th best xGA
4th best SCA
5th best HDCA
5th best on-ice save %

Also, Dumba has a crisp 41.14% offensive zone start %. Second lowest on the team to Middleton.

 

[StateofCelly]

These numbers are meaningless when you account for who is playing against the other team’s top offensive players vs grinders.

Those stats, but Brodin:
ES (per 60):
7th best xGA
4th best SCA
5th best HDCA
5th best on-ice save %

Also, Dumba has a crisp 41.14% offensive zone start %. Second lowest on the team to Middleton.

I find it interesting when you look at the pairings and see the difference between Brodin-Dumba and Brodin-Addison isn't nearly as big of a drop off as Merrill-Dumba and Merrill-Addison. The GA especially, obviously it is skewed because of likely game situations and so on but interesting, nonetheless.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

These numbers are meaningless when you account for who is playing against the other team’s top offensive players vs grinders.

Those stats, but Brodin:
ES (per 60):
7th best xGA
4th best SCA
5th best HDCA
5th best on-ice save %

Also, Dumba has a crisp 41.14% offensive zone start %. Second lowest on the team to Middleton.

If you have those numbers adjusted for quality of competition, be my guest. I'd be interested in seeing them.

Nothing too special about his defensive zone starts though:
4.72 offensive zone starts/60
6.40 defensive zone starts/60

 

[Digitalbooya]

I find it interesting when you look at the pairings and see the difference between Brodin-Dumba and Brodin-Addison isn't nearly as big of a drop off as Merrill-Dumba and Merrill-Addison. The GA especially, obviously it is skewed because of likely game situations and so on but interesting, nonetheless.

I don’t know what site you are using, but this isn’t correct. The drop off from Brodin-Dumba to Brodin-Addison in terms of GA/60 is gigantic and the drop off from Merrill-Dumba to Merrill-Addison is tiny/non-existent.

5v5
GA/60:
Brodin-Dumba: 1.35 (1st on team) ~ 489 minutes
Merrill-Dumba: 2.3 (5th on team) ~ 130 minutes
Merrill-Addison: 2.53 (6th on team) ~ 356 minutes
Brodin-Addison: 3.4 (8th on team) ~ 88 minutes

ES
GA/60:
Brodin-Dumba: 1.78 (1st on team) ~ 507 minutes
Merrill-Addison: 2.68 (t-4th on team) ~ 359 minutes
Merrill-Dumba: 2.68 (t-4th on team) ~ 134 minutes
Brodin-Addison: 3.87 (8th on team) ~ 93 minutes

Source: naturalstattrick

 

[Wasted Talent]

How much of the difference between Addison's and Dumba's GA is a result of their on-ice save percentage?

And how much of that 5% difference in save percentage be attributed to Dumba's defensive play?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I'm not even sure why this is a Dumba vs. Addison conversation. It's not like we're going to trade Addison to keep Dumba. Dumba can come back in the lineup and drop Merrill or Goligoski out pretty easily.

 

[AKL]

How much of the difference between Addison's and Dumba's GA is a result of their on-ice save percentage?

And how much of that 5% difference in save percentage be attributed to Dumba's defensive play?

I'm still not sure why Dumba being scratched for whatever reason had to turn into pages of bashing Addison. I don't think anyone is claiming Addison is better defensively than anyone on the team. That's why he's playing 12 minutes per night on the bottom pairing. It should be a foregone conclusion that Dumba is gone regardless, but it's not because Addison is better than him defensively at this moment.

But Addison is a 22 year old rookie. He should improve. And given his role on the PP, it's 100% worth it to keep him around and see if he does improve. He's not gonna get us the center we need in a trade, and moving him just opens up a big hole again. He's a good skater and he brings skill, two things this roster sorely needs more of, not less.

 

[Digitalbooya]

I'm not even sure why this is a Dumba vs. Addison conversation. It's not like we're going to trade Addison to keep Dumba. Dumba can come back in the lineup and drop Merrill or Goligoski out pretty easily.

The point is, Dean (maybe it was Russo) pointed to Dumba’s turnovers and lackluster play as the reason for Dumba being scratched two games in a row. If that’s the way he’s going to play it, shouldn’t the same rule of thumb be applied to Addison as well? We are starting to face the really good teams. Why on earth would we press box Dumba and make our defense worse in our own zone? That just makes zero sense to me, especially when have a talented rookie who is not doing great at anything but the power play.

The reason it’s Dumba vs Addison is because Merrill actually has relatively good defensive numbers and plays the 3rd pair role well. Goligoski is already a press box regular.

My issue is more with Dean’s decision on Dumba. Addison’s play is my argument against his decision.

 

[ThatGuy22]

The point is, Dean (maybe it was Russo) pointed to Dumba’s turnovers and lackluster play as the reason for Dumba being scratched two games in a row. If that’s the way he’s going to play it, shouldn’t the same rule of thumb be applied to Addison as well? We are starting to face the really good teams. Why on earth would we press box Dumba and make our defense worse in our own zone? That just makes zero sense to me, especially when have a talented rookie who is not doing great at anything but the power play.

The reason it’s Dumba vs Addison is because Merrill actually has relatively good defensive numbers and plays the 3rd pair role well. Goligoski is already a press box regular.

My issue is more with Dean’s decision on Dumba. Addison’s play is my argument against his decision.

They did healthy scratch Addison a few weeks ago. So it's not like he's immune from it.

 

[AKL]

They did healthy scratch Addison a few weeks ago. So it's not like he's immune from it.

And even if they didn't ever scratch him, Dumba is on the trade block and he's gone next year. Addison is a part of this teams future. It doesn't have to be "fair".

 

[Digitalbooya]

And even if they didn't ever scratch him, Dumba is on the trade block and he's gone next year. Addison is a part of this teams future. It doesn't have to be "fair".

None of what you said matters to the here and now. It'd be like justifying putting Fiala in the press box last year. He was clearly gone too and putting him in the press box after one of his bad games would have been equally dumb.

Last I checked, "it's about f---ing winning" not "it's about the future."

 

[57special]

Dumba makes $6 million. Addison makes under 1 million. If they made the same, we’d be having a different conversation. As is, Dumba is stealing money. He was given that salary in the expectation of him being a top two defenseman, who would be scoring 45 to 50 points per season. Not an injury ridden second pairing defenseman who scores half of that. He would be an above average defensive defenseman if he eliminated his mistakes. He has not.

Addison, on the other hand, should be judged much like we judged Dumba, when he was 21 or 22. A young rookie player, with good offensive ability, but needs to work on his defense. Unlike Dumba, it is uncertain whether or not Addison will improve over time. That, and his minuscule salary, relatively speaking, make him the player to stay, not Dumba

 

[AKL]

None of what you said matters to the here and now. It'd be like justifying putting Fiala in the press box last year. He was clearly gone too and putting him in the press box after one of his bad games would have been equally dumb.

Last I checked, "it's about f---ing winning" not "it's about the future."

And you being offended on Dumba's behalf doesn't matter either. Yet here we are.

 

[AKL]

Dumba makes $6 million. Addison makes under 1 million. If they made the same, we’d be having a different conversation. As is, Dumba is stealing money. He was given that salary in the expectation of him being a top two defenseman, who would be scoring 45 to 50 points per season. Not an injury ridden second pairing defenseman who scores half of that. He would be an above average defensive defenseman if he eliminated his mistakes. He has not.

Addison, on the other hand, should be judged much like we judged Dumba, when he was 21 or 22. A young rookie player, with good offensive ability, but needs to work on his defense. Unlike Dumba, it is uncertain whether or not Addison will improve over time. That, and his minuscule salary, relatively speaking, make him the player to stay, not Dumba

Yeah, if Dumba was living up to his salary and his role, I don't think we'd be talking about moving on from him. But he's not, so considering his age and what an extension might look like, it's an easy player to move on from.

If Addison doesn't improve much or at all in the next few years, he may not be here after that either, but you don't make that decision now.

 

[Digitalbooya]

And you being offended on Dumba's behalf doesn't matter either. Yet here we are.

I'm not offended on Dumba's behalf. I'm having a discussion/venting about Dean's questionable decision making. Which you didn't seem to have a problem with doing earlier in the year when he wasn't playing Rossi where you wanted him to/sitting him in the press box.

Dumba makes $6 million. Addison makes under 1 million. If they made the same, we’d be having a different conversation. As is, Dumba is stealing money. He was given that salary in the expectation of him being a top two defenseman, who would be scoring 45 to 50 points per season. Not an injury ridden second pairing defenseman who scores half of that. He would be an above average defensive defenseman if he eliminated his mistakes. He has not.

Addison, on the other hand, should be judged much like we judged Dumba, when he was 21 or 22. A young rookie player, with good offensive ability, but needs to work on his defense. Unlike Dumba, it is uncertain whether or not Addison will improve over time. That, and his minuscule salary, relatively speaking, make him the player to stay, not Dumba

I got it. You make less than $1M per year and you are not expected to play at least average defense against 3rd/4th lines.

Meanwhile, Dumba has almost identical fancy stats to one Jonas Brodin. Dumba has more points. Brodin makes less defensive mistakes. Both have the same AAV. Both have had injury issues. Both play on the same pairing, which you called the 2nd pairing. So is Brodin stealing money too?

 

[AKL]

I'm not offended on Dumba's behalf. I'm having a discussion/venting about Dean's questionable decision making. Which you didn't seem to have a problem with doing earlier in the year when he wasn't playing Rossi where you wanted him to/sitting him in the press box.

This whole thing started because you took exception to me saying Dumba being out of the lineup isn't the reason we lost

I never said Addison is better
I never said Dumba is horrible and deserves to sit for multiple games
I even acknowledged this point

Healthy Scratching someone you have wearing a letter and damn well know is the heartbeat of the team when there’s only two defenders on this team that deserve to be in the lineup over him is just plain abhorrent management.

I also speculated that there's gotta be more to scratching him for two games than just performance.

You chose to make this whole thing about how Addison sucks and you're on board with trading him because he doesn't provide anything outside of the PP. Then my response was that there's no reason to trade him just because he's not a finished product as a 22 year old rookie, and you kept saying stupid strawman arguments like

Haven’t you heard? Addison has skill and speed, so nothing is his fault. Can’t complain about his terrible defensive play because of all that skill and speed he displays. It’s truly outstanding, all that skill and speed.

As if anyone said you can't criticize him or nothing is his fault?

If you wanted to have a discussion about how bad the decision is to scratch Dumba when worse defensemen are still playing every night, it would go something like this:

You: If this team is trying to win, they shouldn't scratch Dumba, he's not their biggest problem
Me: Yeah, it's puzzling that he's getting a second game in the press box, there must be something deeper going on besides his performance
You: Yeah, wish we could know what it is, it's definitely weird
Me: Yeah it's not the way to go about things if you want to win

But that's not how it went because you kept distracting from your own points with bullshit like "everyone's favorite golden child" and "Haven’t you heard? Addison has skill and speed, so nothing is his fault. Can’t complain about his terrible defensive play because of all that skill and speed he displays. It’s truly outstanding, all that skill and speed."

You're not having a discussion, you're trolling.

 

[AKL]

Just now reading through this article: An inside look at how the Wild are embracing analytics: 'It's part of everything'

Found this part interesting

Most of the content in Sells’ reports comes from the mountain of data available to NHL teams through player and puck tracking. The puck has a chip in it, and there’s one in every player’s jersey, and that information has been a game-changer for teams. Public sites routinely use play-by-play data, for example. Sells said “probably less than 1 percent” of data teams use is available to the public.

Sells wouldn’t get into many specifics on what he mines from player tracking data. He did say the team’s expected goals model is much more accurate. Like most teams, the Wild track scoring chances, 50-50 battles, opponents’ tendencies (their forecheck, their retrievals, where players are most dangerous on the ice). Public data offers outcomes, but internal metrics tell you “why those results are happening,” he said. For example, stats will tell you Brodin is strong at suppressing shots; puck tracking shows what he does to be so effective.

I assumed there was some proprietary data each of the teams had, and they didn't just look at Natural Stat Trick or Evolving Hockey for all of it. Never would have guessed it was that little. Would make sense why their conclusions are different to ours here at times.

 

[DANOZ28]

dean & mgmt tushys are on the line and if dean chooses to play addison instead of send him down you have to trust his judgement. unless you think dean is a horrible coach then rip & bash him all you want. cheers

 

[Minnewildsota]

dean & mgmt tushys are on the line and if dean chooses to play addison instead of send him down you have to trust his judgement. unless you think dean is a horrible coach then rip & bash him all you want. cheers

Yeah, I don’t think their jobs are on the line anymore than any other coaches

 

[AKL]

If Colorado hangs on to beat Washington, we'll officially be out of a playoff spot.

 

[NHL1674]

Feels good.

 

[Digitalbooya]

We’re gonna get that one guy that’s really good in the draft