Mike Bossy was a better goal scorer than Wayne Gretzky

The Panther

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Gretzky's goal-scoring ability declined very substantially during his career.

After his 23-year-old season ('84-'85), he was top-5 in goals-per-game only once. So, when Gretzky was younger than McDavid and Matthews are right now, he was pretty much finished as an elite goal-scorer.
(sigh...) Really? This again?

It's certainly true that Gretzky's goal-scoring totals declined substantially during his career, and particularly after September 1991 (which is also when all of his production, except on the PP, declined).

But if you're trying to sell the snake-oil that Gretzky was (and I quote) "pretty much finished as an elite goal-scorer . . . after '84-'85", then that's just incorrect:

1984-85 (aged 23-24)
R.S.: 1st in goals / 2nd in GPG (to his linemate Kurri, so in other words he was really 1st in GPG)
Playoffs: 2nd in goals (to Kurri, whom he set up for 80+ percent of his goals)

1985-86 (aged 24-25)
R.S.: 6th in goals (was 1 goal out of 1st place in late January -- and easily 1st in ES goals -- then had the first goal-less slump of his career)
Playoffs: 8 goals in 10 games (was tied for 1st in goals when Oilers were eliminated)

1986-87 (aged 25-26)
R.S.: 1st in goals / 1st in GPG (scored 40 goals in first 39 games)
Playoffs: only 5

1987-88 (aged 26-27)
R.S.: was 2nd in goals at the time of his injury in mid-season (scored 34 goals in first 43 games)
Playoffs: 3rd in goals (12 goals in 18.5 games)

- - - - - - - - - - (goes to L.A.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

1988-89 (aged 27-28)
R.S.: 4th in goals / (scored 50 goals in first 66 games)
Playoffs: only 5 goals in 11 games

1989-90 (aged 28-29)
R.S.: paced for 44 goals, but this is the first season probably ever where he's not "elite", as he's about 16th in goals per game.
Playoffs: just 3 in (almost) 7 games

1990-91 (aged 29-30)
R.S.: only 13th in total goals, but 4th in ES goals (and was pacing for a 51-goal-season after 50 games before slow-down)
Playoffs: forgettable 4 in 12 games


One pattern I notice in the mid- and later-Gretzky prime seasons is that he tended to score more goals when his teammates were struggling, and then when his teammates heated up he scored fewer goals himself (and, naturally, more assists).

The Oilers' stars were not really struggling in 1985-86 at any time, but it's noticeable that Wayne was one goal behind Tim Kerr for the NHL lead in goals in by late January '86, but thereafter had a goals slump (or was it...?) and ended up in 6th place. But from late January '86 to the end of the season, Jari Kurri scored 33 goals in 31 games (best NHL), Paul Coffey scored 25 in the final 31 games (4th NHL), and Glenn Anderson scored 22 goals in 31 games (5th NHL), all dwarfing their paces in the first 49 or 50 games.

The next season (1986-87), the Oilers were struggling a bit in the first 1/3 of the season, and there were rumors of Anderson being traded, etc. As noted, Wayne scored 40 goals in the first 39 games of the season... and then scored only 22 goals in his last 40. The same pattern occurs here, as in those first 39 games (when Wayne had 40 goals), nobody else on the Oilers had more than 22. Kurri scored only 21 goals in the first 39 games when Wayne was lighting the lamp, but then scored 33 goals in the final 41 games (1st NHL).

In 1987-88, as noted, Wayne was on a 63-goal pace after 43 games, but after his 2nd injury (to his eye) cost him a few more games, he seemed to shoot less and play the perimeter down the stretch.

First season in L.A., 1988-89, is much the same, as Wayne scored 50 in his first 66 games, and only 4 in his final 12 games.

1990-91 is the same. At exactly mid-season, Wayne led the Kings with 25 goals in 39 games (Robitaille had only 20 goals), but in the second half as the Kings caught fire, Wayne stopped scoring as many goals (only 16), while Sandstrom and Robitaille had 27 and 25 respectively.



Anyway, I swear only on this forum could the guy who had 700 NHL goals while still in his 20s be not as good a goal-scorer as Have-Another-Donut-Krutov. Funny stuff, though....
 

Stephen

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Anyway, I swear only on this forum could the guy who had 700 NHL goals while still in his 20s be not as good a goal-scorer as Have-Another-Donut-Krutov. Funny stuff, though....

When you mention Krutov, I feel like this conversation is fighting with individual posters 'gestalt' or 'police composite' of what a "goal scorer" should be or look like, not actually the player who scores the most goals.

It's almost like we're conceptually rebuilding a proto Brett Hull, a guy whose got the great touch around the net, bullet wrister and slapper. But not too many garbage goals to be downgraded to a Dave Andreychuk, but not too flashy to be bumped up to a Pavel Bure who relied on too many other athletic gifts. And throw out Gretzky or even Lemieux because let's face it, they had elite playmaking as well and their default switch isn't to shoot.

It could be a more interesting conversation if we're talking shop about goal scoring styles, but it's just missing the most obvious and true conclusion. I'm not even a Gretzky fan per se, but trying to define a goal scorer as everything but Gretz is a little... urgh I dunno.
 

Thenameless

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Wow, some very interesting stats and research being brought up by the fine folks on hfboards. I can echo a lot of the sentiments being put down here. Gretzky had no peer as an all around offensive threat, but when it comes to pure goal scoring, Bossy was something else. It's hard to explain, but if you were there you knew.

Unfortunately, people who only have the benefit of looking at raw totals are going to end up under rating players like Bossy and Richard, who seemed to be able to get you that goal when your team needed it most.
 

Staniowski

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Here's Gretzky's goals-per-game rank for each season of his career.

Season; Gretzky's Age; Rank

(It's taken from NHL.com; need to play half of games to qualify; it might not account for ties, so some of them might be off slightly)....

'80 - 18 - 9
'81 - 19 - 5
'82 - 20 - 1
'83 - 21 - 1
'84 - 22 - 1
'85 - 23 - 2
'86 - 24 - 7
'87 - 25 - 2
'88 - 26 - 10
'89 - 27 - 6
'90 - 28 - 17
'91 - 29 - 17
'92 - 30 - 41
'93 - 31 - 77
'94 - 32 - 27
'95 - 33 - 149
'96 - 34 - 104
'97 - 35 - 76
'98 - 36 - 69
'99 - 37 - 233
 

Professor What

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I do think that Bossy was more of a "natural goal scorer," but in the end, I've got to take Gretzky on the whole. Bossy's consistency was remarkable. Even in his final season, dealing with the back issues, he was still close to a 50 goal per 80 game pace. I do suspect that, had he not had injury issues and could have continued healthy, he would have remained an elite scorer for longer than Gretzky. The fact is though, he didn't. I think we're all very aware of Gretzky tailing off as a goal threat, but he was still quite good at it for a long time, whereas Bossy had a short career. I can't give credit for what didn't happen.

One thing that Bossy didn't have though, was Gretzky's ridiculous heights. While scoring rates can be (fairly, I believe) argued to have had a stronger effect on increasing Gretzky's numbers, we're talking about two guys were very much contemporaries (overlapping in the NHL for 8 of Bossy's 10 seasons), and Bossy's peak numbers are nowhere close to Gretzky's. Even making an effort to factor out inflated scoring, Gretzky's 92-goal and 87-goal seasons are among the few best ever. Bossy's best seasons, while still outstanding lag behind. Bossy comes out a lot better in career goals per game, but he also never had a winding down period since injuries forced him out in what was still clearly prime career time. There are a few guys that fare better than him at peak performance. Bossy would be on my top 10 list, but he wouldn't be as high on it as Gretzky.
 
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LightningStorm

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Some interesting trivia: in the 3 Islanders/Oilers playoff series, neither of them were the leading goal scorer in either of them. Worth pointing out Bossy missed the opening game of the 1983 SCF.

1981: Potvin with 6
1983: Morrow, B. Sutter, and Kurri with 3
1984: Gillies with 5

Funny how a d-man had the most goals scored in a single series of this rivalry, even with Potvin being one of the best goal scoring d-men.
 

Minar

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When did someone say he wasn’t a really really good goal scorer? Being the best, second best or fourth best goal scorer is all really really good. The arguments for Bossy aren’t slights towards Gretzky, we all know whatever he would have lacked in goal scoring he more than made up for in playmaking: the discussion is who was the better pure goal scorer of the two, and there are well-argumented cases for Bossy made here.

See above post where Stanoiwski says that Gretzky was done as an elite goal scorer by age 23.
 

Staniowski

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See above post where Stanoiwski says that Gretzky was done as an elite goal scorer by age 23.
Well, these are his goals-per-game ranks among all NHL players from age 24 to the end of his career:

7, 2, 10, 6, 17, 17, 41, 77, 27, 149, 104, 76, 69, 233.
 

Sentinel

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Bossy, Lemieux, Krutov and Makarov were the best goal-scorers of the 1980s.

They were all better at putting the puck in the net than Gretzky was.

That was a strong decade for goal-scorers. Krutov was probably the best goal-scorer of all the Soviets; Makarov was the best of the Soviet forwards, and a great goal scorer; Bossy the best in the NHL during most of his career; and Lemieux definitely the best goal-scorer in the history of hockey.
No they weren't. For a very simple reason: Gretzky put the puck in the net way more than all of them.

Gretzky blew Bossy away. This is where HOH gets carried away: crunching numbers to create embarrassing hot takes and attempt to overturn self-evident facts.
 
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The Panther

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Well, these are his goals-per-game ranks among all NHL players from age 24 to the end of his career:

7, 2, 10, 6, 17, 17, 41, 77, 27, 149, 104, 76, 69, 233.
FYI, Gretzky was 24 in 1985, not 23.

Also, these numbers, for the 80s, are a bit off.

1985 - 2nd (really, 1st, since Kurri was 1st)
1986 - 7th
1987 - 1st (not 2nd -- Lemieux and Gretzky had the exact same number of goals in the same number of games)
1988 - 10th (was 2nd or 3rd before his second injury in late January)
1989 - 6th (was 3rd or 4th before mini-slump in final 12 games)

So, actually, from age 24 to 28 (five seasons), Gretzky was at average 5th in goals per game. And that's not taking into account:
(a) his injuries (major factor in '88)
(b) his tendency to stop scoring goals late in seasons, probably due to resting up a bit to get playoff-ready.
(c) the fact that, in ES goals, he's probably higher than 5th (Gretzky tending not to score many goals on the PP)

So, I guess the question is, is 5th in goals-per-game "elite"? Decide for yourself. My take would be, when Rob Brown is 4th and Gretzky is 6th (1989), is Rob Brown a more elite goal-scorer than Gretzky suddenly, or does the guy who is in the midst of 10-straight fifty-goal paced seasons (including two at 87 and 92) due the respect that Brown maybe isn't?

Again, there's no doubt that Gretzky was not an "elite" goal scorer in regular seasons after 1991. I would also include 1989-90, and then 1990-91 is sort of borderline.
 
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LightningStorm

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I've noticed most arguments for Bossy make a better case for why he had a better shot rather than being a better overall goal scorer. Yes, he scored goals at a higher rate when he had scoring chances and didn't need as high % of chances as Gretzky to score goals due to his superior shot. But Gretzky's ability to create high % scoring chances at a unprecedented volume is more valuable than having a great shot. I do believe that Bossy's better shot would've given him better longevity as a goal scorer had he had a full career though.
 

ContrarianGoaltender

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When you mention Krutov, I feel like this conversation is fighting with individual posters 'gestalt' or 'police composite' of what a "goal scorer" should be or look like, not actually the player who scores the most goals.

It's almost like we're conceptually rebuilding a proto Brett Hull, a guy whose got the great touch around the net, bullet wrister and slapper. But not too many garbage goals to be downgraded to a Dave Andreychuk, but not too flashy to be bumped up to a Pavel Bure who relied on too many other athletic gifts. And throw out Gretzky or even Lemieux because let's face it, they had elite playmaking as well and their default switch isn't to shoot.

It could be a more interesting conversation if we're talking shop about goal scoring styles, but it's just missing the most obvious and true conclusion. I'm not even a Gretzky fan per se, but trying to define a goal scorer as everything but Gretz is a little... urgh I dunno.

I don't think this a fair representation of the arguments that have been made in favour of Bossy. Let me try summarizing the debate so far, hopefully in a way that people presenting the arguments would agree with. I think there have been effectively four different perspectives on how to evaluate goal scorers, two of which definitely favour Gretzky and two of which lean more towards Bossy:

1. Goal scoring is purely a results business.

Players should be rated on their accomplishments, which means that the best goal scorer is the player with the most goals and/or the best goal scoring finishes relative to the league. If there are situational differences between players where some get used more in favourable scenarios that could impact their offensive numbers, or certain players are more injury-prone or end up having shorter careers, none of that is very important because all goals count the same and because all players had the opportunity to play in those games or take on similar roles within their own teams. At the end of the day, all that matters what they actually did. In post 3, @bobholly39 presents a typical accomplishments-based breakdown which shows that Gretzky has a superior overall level of production when it comes to goals and scoring finishes, and based on this perspective it is simply not defensible to rank Bossy ahead.

2. Goal scoring is the macro level result of a number of different offensive skill sets.

Goal scorers should be judged based on how skilled they are, but since it is difficult if not impossible to analyze all of the components separately the best way to identify the best goal scorer is to look at the player with the best overall results (and then potentially go further into more contextual detail if the results are close). Additionally some players, by virtue of their usage or other skill sets, could have scored more goals if they chose to focus on them more or were deployed in a different role, which gives them higher potential ceilings as a goal scorer and elevates them over those who were more specialized. @seventieslord goes over this theoretical perspective in more detail in post 50. By this logic, Gretzky mostly had better results, and even in places where it was close (e.g. playoff goal scoring), Gretzky was far more accomplished as a playmaker, which means he could have potentially scored even more goals than Bossy and should therefore be considered the superior goal scorer.

3. Goal scorers should be evaluated based on the value of the goals they score.

The number of goals scored by a player does not necessarily reflect their skill as a goal scorer, because not all goals have the same impact on a team's primary goal of winning championships. Some relevant factors that could indicate that value are things like the game situations the player tended to score in, how they did in the most important games, any notable teammate or usage effects, how their performance would translate to other environments or eras, etc. This is primarily the logic presented by @overpass in the OP. Some of the key arguments for Bossy are his performance in the most high-leverage situations (playoffs/international best-on-best) and also that his goal scoring seems to have been more repeatable regardless of the level of competition or the stage he was at in his career. On the other hand, Gretzky seemed to dominate specific situations that likely weren't as translatable to other eras or against different opponents, and his regular season goal scoring edge was less valuable than it seems because the regular season was much less meaningful in the 1980s. If Bossy's goal scoring was more valuable or more beneficial to his team in terms of winning Cups, this justifies viewing him as the superior goal scorer.

4. Goal scoring is a separate player skill that should be subjectively evaluated on its own merits.

The number of goals scored by a player does not completely decide their standing as a goal scorer, because it is also strongly impacted by that player's level of overall offensive ability. There is a clear and identifiable difference between how good someone is at offence overall, and how good someone is at scoring goals specifically. It is possible to separate the two using a subjective evaluation focusing on the skills that are most commonly associated with scoring goals. If you watched Gretzky play, you immediately noticed his dazzling passing skills and his genius-level hockey IQ and all the other wonderful offensive abilities that made him such an unstoppable force. However, most of those attributes fall more under the aspect of playmaking than the category of goal scoring. As a result, many who followed hockey in the early '80s (e.g. posters like @Staniowski or @Thenameless) view Bossy as deserving to be ranked ahead because he was better at scoring goals, even though he wasn't in the same league as Gretzky as a playmaker.

If anyone thinks I'm misrepresenting anything I would very much invite corrections, because I'd love to see people think through why they rate players the way they do, as opposed to just taking shots at others without fully understanding where they are coming from. As is the case with any exercise in categorizing things, some overlap between perspectives should be expected. Hopefully that gives a rough summary of the different schools of thought and the major points of disagreement (accomplishments vs. subjective rating of skills, whether all goals should count the same, whether or not you can isolate goal scoring as a skill from a player's overall offensive ability, whether elite playmaking skills should be viewed as a bonus attribute or not when it comes to goal scoring, etc.)
 
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scott clam

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Here's a fun fact: Back in April of '89 Wayne Gretzky tied Mike Bossy's career playoff goals total of 85 in the exact same number of games played - 129.

Of course he had over double Bossy's assist total.

Edit: He actually did it in 3 less games than Bossy, On April 15th of '89.

NHL Stats

Actually I think that was the record at that point, no?
 
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DitchMarner

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It seems to me that quite a few posters on this site are convinced Bossy was a much better goal scorer than his goal totals suggest because of things such as how natural goal scoring seemed to come to him, how deadly his shot was, how prolific he was at scoring in certain situations etc.

Theoretically, I might be able to buy a convincing argument that he was the most clutch goal scorer ever or more clutch than a certain player or that he was the best at scoring goals against tough defenses or better at scoring goals against tough defenses than another player, but to me actual goal outputs are very significant when it comes to evaluating goal scoring ability. Because Bossy was never able to score 70 goals in an era when other players were able to do so, I find it very difficult to call him the best or greatest goal scorer ever. Yes, he played on good defensive teams, but those teams were also capable of scoring a lot of goals and he had plenty of talent to work with (including Trottier and Potvin).

I feel the apologists for Bossy may be better served using qualifiers than speaking in absolutes. Is he the greatest goal scorer or a better goal scorer than Gretzky under X and/or Y conditions? Maybe. Is he the greatest goal scorer ever? I don't buy it... or buy the argument he was a better goal scorer than Wayne (whom I personally don't consider the best or greatest goal scorer ever) necessarily. If Dennis Maruk is able to hit 60 goals in that era, the greatest goal scorer of all-time should be able to put up more than 70 at some point playing with Trottier.

It's kind of like how Mike Gartner had great tools for goal scoring and was a natural at it and was able to score at a fairly good to good rate year after year but was never able to top 50 goals. He had all those tools and yet something was missing that kept him from reaching that next level. Obviously Mike Bossy was a better player and goal scorer than Gartner, but his goal scoring peak is also fairly underwhelming when comparing him to the all-time greats in that facet of the game.
 
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vadim sharifijanov

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i think maybe one thing about gretzky's goal scoring ability is when you think of gretzky goals, you think about him on the rush in open ice, then abruptly button hooking and moving horizontally across the ice surface to let a slapper go

the low hanging fruit is it's hard to imagine a shot like that going in today

but i've also been finding myself wondering about the open ice part. he always looks like he has so much space, in a way that we're totally not used to seeing anymore. and generally gretzky wasn't deking people out of their jock strap like mario or jagr or bure or just blowing by them like coffey or mcdavid. if anything the way he was adjusting the geometry on defenders who were two strides away from him with subtle footwork until they were totally out of the play but didn't realize it yet was more like when you watch erik karlsson or quinn hughes on the point on the PP. and so the natural tendency is to say well that space wouldn't exist now, but it's not like everyone was too stupid to play him tight in the 80s and 90s. in some ways they respected his ability to beat them in other ways but i also feel like gretzky on the rush anticipated the gap and did a lot of subtle work early in transition so that guys were in a bad decision to play him tight by the time they would engage a normal player in the same situation.

part of me thinks that gretzky was a 1 of 1 in that respect. i don't think i've never seen a puck carrier like gretzky since. at least nobody else that i've ever seen goes directly east-west like he did with any regularity.

on the other hand, you have to think with today's sophisticated video coaching and advanced prep, the league would have figured out a way to defend against his tendencies. i'm 100% not comparing elias pettersson to gretzky but pettersson carrying the puck had a bit of the weird east-west gretzky in him and the league figured him out. now every team in the league knows how to defend him on the rush.

but then gretzky is gretzky, he was a master of improvisation and i have to believe that the moment he had an inkling that defenders were adjusting to him, he'd figure out a new way to beat them. and to go back to the low hanging fruit from the beginning of this post, that includes goalies. shots from far out go in because the goalie isn't set. gretzky was the master of getting his shot off before the goalie was ready for it. i think he finds a way, even with these gigantic 6'7 goalies with the mattress pads.

which is also to say that i think gretzky scored the kinds of goals he scored when he scored them because his brain is a computer and they were high percentage scoring opportunities, and accordingly he chose to playmake when he playmade because they were more likely to result in a goal. so if you take the scoring opportunities he feasted on away, i think he adapts and finds other ways to score.

btw none of this is ranking him vs bossy, who i'm really not very familiar with except statistically.
 

vadim sharifijanov

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i'm wondering if i'm misunderstanding the data, or missing a key piece here in both the OP and what i'm quoting below

Best teams (0.50 SRS or better):

PlayerGPGAP
Gretzky6748107155
Bossy865751108
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Rest of the league:

PlayerGPGAP
Gretzky247275391666
Bossy216176216392
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Putting it all together and converting to per-80 game rates for easy reading and comparison:

BestBestBestBestRestRestRestRest
PlayerGPGAPGPGAP
Gretzky80571281858089127216
Bossy805347100806580145
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Like absolute clockwork, every single time. The better the team, the more Bossy uses his elite shooting ability to break them down defensively, and conversely the more Gretzky turns into a playmaker to accomplish the same goal, and the gap in terms of goals between them goes away. Even, as in this case, absolutely peak sniper Gretzky against a very ordinary Bossy. And just to be clear, I'm not excluding shorthanded, empty net, anything here, this includes all offence, full stop.

obviously gretzky is scoring more than bossy is against the "best" teams. is the inference here that the younger peak bossy was scoring at a greater than peak gretzky rate? or is there something else that i missed?

in the same way, i don't know that i saw any hard evidence that gretzky scored appreciably less than bossy in any situation (close games, better competition, etc), just that when you adjusted those variables, gretzky's large lead became smaller or basically even with bossy. but i feel like the way the arguments are being made in this thread, i'm missing something substantial that does show gretzky scoring appreciably less in those situations.

as for the ES and 5 on 4 vs 4 on 4 and SH situations point, i get that. but is there a degree to which taking away 4 on 4 situations (or intentional 4 on 5s, as the oilers are sometimes accused of causing) would give gretzky more 5 on 5 goals?

but then i don't know how much 4 on 4 time we're really talking about to get gretzky those 10 goals per 82.
 

The Panther

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The whole "80s-Oilers-intentionally-took-penalties-to-create-4-on-4" is utterly ridiculous. No team would reject a 5-on-4 to have a 4-on-4. That's absurd.
 

NyQuil

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It’s not surprising that they scored goals in a different way.

Bossy was a winger while Lemieux and Gretzky were centres.

Ovechkin, Bossy, Hull(s), Bure, Richard, Howe, I think people have an inherent bias towards thinking of wingers as “natural” goal scorers as it is often their primary purpose.

How often are wingers heralded for their play making?

Meanwhile, there are a few shoot first centres out there, Olli Jokinen and Auston Matthews spring to mind, but in general, centres are assessed on their total points requiring them to put up assists. Jokinen still ended up with more assists than goals IIRC.

Ultimately I’m in the results camp rather than stylistic tendencies. So it’s Gretzky. They both played for competitive teams in roughly the same era.

Goals are one of the few relatively absolute statistics in hockey without a great deal of subjective controversy so we ought to take advantage of it.

I am persuaded by era-adjusted statistics where applicable.
 
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Yozhik v tumane

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The whole "80s-Oilers-intentionally-took-penalties-to-create-4-on-4" is utterly ridiculous. No team would reject a 5-on-4 to have a 4-on-4. That's absurd.

Wait… that’s not what they’re accused of now, is it? Isn’t the allegation that they sought coincidental minors (I’m not sure exactly how they would have gone about it, and if it was so egregious and successful for the Oilers, why coaches didn’t tell their players to stop falling for it?), that created 4 on 4-situations, rather than gave their opponents the man advantage?

Not sure if I’m being clear, but I’ve thought that what they would do was bait opponents for offsetting minors.
 

The Panther

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Wait… that’s not what they’re accused of now, is it? Isn’t the allegation that they sought coincidental minors (I’m not sure exactly how they would have gone about it, and if it was so egregious and successful for the Oilers, why coaches didn’t tell their players to stop falling for it?), that created 4 on 4-situations, rather than gave their opponents the man advantage?

Not sure if I’m being clear, but I’ve thought that what they would do was bait opponents for offsetting minors.
Wouldn't every team do that?
 

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