OT: MIchigan Sports Thread: UM wins Natty Championship

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

I would like to dig deeper but someone I trust and does not pull b.s. from his rear crunched data and said from the distances of the potential FG attempts the Lions are more successful converting than Bagdley is in his career from said distances.

People love to talk about MC/DC's machismo and balls but he is not throwing caution to the wind recklessly. He knows what he's working with and trusts the offense more than Bagdley.

Reynolds was open and dropped the ball. It wasn’t a contested throw. It’s the type of pass they’ve completed all year and even earlier in the game. They f***ed it up

Then, they got a double dickshot with Vildor almost picking the ball, but instead popping it straight up for a catch by Aiyuk.

And the emotional swing f***ed up the rookie and he ran on the wrong side of Goff.

Basically everything that could go wrong for Detroit in that third quarter went wrong.

The real backbreakers were letting Brock Purdy run for 15+ yards multiple times.

He's an easy scapegoat, and boy is he being scapegoated hard today. If there's one guy who can handle it though, it's probably him. But I agree, not kicking a FG is mostly a hindsight thing. How was anyone to know of the errors, bad luck, and lack of execution that was to come in the following 8-10 minutes?

Yep. Even with the Aiyuk catch… the Lions were up 7 and still had been cruising on the ground. And even then, down 27-24, they had the 49ers dead to rights and Purdy escaped for firsts multiple times. Like they damn near got the ball back with like 5 to go.

 

[Bondurant]

Reynolds was open and dropped the ball. It wasn’t a contested throw. It’s the type of pass they’ve completed all year and even earlier in the game. They f***ed it up

Then, they got a double dickshot with Vildor almost picking the ball, but instead popping it straight up for a catch by Aiyuk.

And the emotional swing f***ed up the rookie and he ran on the wrong side of Goff.

Basically everything that could go wrong for Detroit in that third quarter went wrong.

The real backbreakers were letting Brock Purdy run for 15+ yards multiple times.


Yep. Even with the Aiyuk catch… the Lions were up 7 and still had been cruising on the ground. And even then, down 27-24, they had the 49ers dead to rights and Purdy escaped for firsts multiple times. Like they damn near got the ball back with like 5 to go.

Vildor was getting a PI flag if picked but still...it hit your face, dude.

 

[izlez]

Vildor was getting a PI flag if picked but still...it hit your face, dude.

Pretty sure they ended up picking that flag up

 

[Hen Kolland]

Vildor was getting a PI flag if picked but still...it hit your face, dude.

I have no idea how they would have justified PI on that play. Absolutely no clue. I've watched it so many times because they haven't stopped showing the replay, but it looked like Aiyuk running into Vildor with some hand fighting. There was no PI to call

 

[jkutswings]

I would like to dig deeper but someone I trust and does not pull b.s. from his rear crunched data and said from the distances of the potential FG attempts the Lions are more successful converting than Bagdley is in his career from said distances.

People love to talk about MC/DC's machismo and balls but he is not throwing caution to the wind recklessly. He knows what he's working with and trusts the offense more than Bagdley.

I understand that the math says it works in the long run. But it would also be smart for the franchise to get a better kicker in the off season.

 

[19 for president]

I agree with you on that, that's their MO so I get it. I didn't like the call live and it's all I thought about after they got the quick 14 points.

I also wasn't thrilled with it, because it felt like it could be a big momentum swing if they missed. We were up by 14 still. Could have answered their three and went back up to a 3 possession game, which keeps the momentum stagnant at best.

The fact is that this team is fairly young and inexperienced in high pressure games. If this were say with KC or San Frans playoff experience then I am less concerned with momentum shifts. Instead we were an inexperienced team facing a very potent offense with a lot of experience and when the momentum shifted we were unable to correct the ship.

If anything I probably would have went for the longer 4th down in the redzone at the end of the 1st half, as they would have still been up by two scores and had halftime to resettle.

As I noted above, I think Campbell has some learning to do as well if he wants to take that next step from great motivator to great X's/O's guy as well. We were lucky the game clock management at the end of the last game didn't turn into some Rodgers hail mary fail. I love the culture he has brought to this team, now he just needs to refine some of those game management tactics. Add that to Holmes hopefully being able to bring in some more defensive help, I think this team has the potential to make a big push next season.

 

[Ezekial]

This wasn't Campbell's fault.

I don't know how the Detroit media is portraying it but I didn't mean it like that, that was just a crucial decision that he had to make one way or the other, the game was lost on the field.

 

[Bondurant]

I understand that the math says it works in the long run. But it would also be smart for the franchise to get a better kicker in the off season.

For sure. One of the positions Lions have been good at for 4 decades minus a few patches. We're in one of those patches now. Hopefully there is a kicker worth a damn for a late round or undrafted FA selection.

 

[izlez]

Don't know the actual success rate, but I hate the idea of drafting a kicker. Kicking is such a high precision thing and making 89% vs 90% of kicks is a huge difference... and then you're going to pick a guy who is good at kicking football that's shaped differently in college? That seems that's way too big of a variable to throw in there. Find me a vet.

 

[ricky0034]

Don't know the actual success rate, but I hate the idea of drafting a kicker. Kicking is such a high precision thing and making 89% vs 90% of kicks is a huge difference... and then you're going to pick a guy who is good at kicking football that's shaped differently in college? That seems that's way too big of a variable to throw in there. Find me a vet.

hell the 49ers did draft a kicker and he missed a field goal from a similar distance this very game

 

[Hen Kolland]

As for the discussion of kicker conversion vs. 4th down conversion, we collectively will never be able to factor in all the variables of the moment. Who are the best defenses we faced this year? The Ravens? We were 2/6 on 4th down. Late season Bears defense? 1/3 on 4th. Early season Chiefs (without Chris Jones)? 1/3. The 49ers were one of the best defensive units that we faced all year, and simply saying "oh we convert a lot of 4th downs" doesn't consider how good the 49ers are. It doesn't consider you played directly into their momentum. It doesn't consider the things that actually matter in the moment.

They should have kicked the field goal based on the situation, but that's also not who Campbell is, nor is it how the team got to this point in the first place. This is the definition of live by the sword, die by the sword. Live by the Campbell, die by the Gamble. You were eventually going to bite the bullet and it's shocking it took this long to blow up in our face. We have had bad games on 4th down, but those haven't haunted us with one score losses...this one did. It's just the reality of it.

But that alone isn't the undoing. Blowing punt coverage with a mental mistake, dropping passes, mixing up play calls, can't buy an open field tackle, balls bouncing off helmets. They did everything that the 2021-2022 Lions would have done in the second half. It sucks, but honestly, shame on every single person on the team for the second half...besides Jack Fox.

And even with how sour it ended, it was enough of a taste that it should make you hellbent on correcting the problem next year.

 

[Reality Check]

This wasn't Campbell's fault.

He deserves some blame for sure. But this is what happens when you're put in that position as coach. It's either all or nothing. He didn't fumble the ball, he didn't drop passes. But he is going to get the brunt of the blame.

Lions may never get back here again. They may never win another playoff game for another 30 years. I get that it sucks. But I'm going to appreciate what they accomplished.

They have given fans a reason to hope once again. Now we'll see if they can build on it or not.

 

[jaster]

Sooo, I don't follow the Lions roster situation nearly as closely as the Wings..... are the Lions standing to lose any key players this off-season?

 

[Hen Kolland]

Sooo, I don't follow the Lions roster situation nearly as closely as the Wings..... are the Lions standing to lose any key players this off-season?

https://x.com/AdamSchefter/status/1751811806639558749?s=20

 

[Reality Check]

Lions are in a good position roster and cap space wise.

Biggest loss for them will be their departing OC.

 

[Bench]

Sooo, I don't follow the Lions roster situation nearly as closely as the Wings..... are the Lions standing to lose any key players this off-season?

The biggest off-season decision will be how they pay Goff. Seems like they are going to commit to him long-term, which is probably the right move for their current window.

 

[Frk It]

The biggest off-season decision will be how they pay Goff. Seems like they are going to commit to him long-term, which is probably the right move for their current window.

I think the biggest off season variable is if they keep their OC, or if not who they replace him with.

I think that guy deserves to be a HC.

 

[Bench]

I think the biggest off season variable is if they keep their OC, or if not who they replace him with.

I think that guy deserves to be a HC.

I figured it was a foregone conclusion they'd lose Ben Johnson. All kinds of smoke around him being offered the job in Washington.

 

[Winger98]

But why? Like, I get trying to be in front of the big extension... but didn't they learn their lesson on signing before it's necessary? Colt Keith has played precisely zero in MLB. This feels like putting the cart WAY WAY WAY before the horse. God, I hope Keith is a good player.

It's entirely that. It is pretty clear Ilitch doesn't want to seriously wade into free agency or we would have Correa here. This makes me think the GM knows there won't be an open wallet to re-sign his own guys, either. So he has to gamble a bit and get out ahead of it and hope that the overpay now is made up for down the road.

Personally, I like it. I don't know if it is going to work out but I like that our front office feels confident enough in itself to take this swing. Reminds me of Yzerman drafting Seider.

 

[Bench]

We literally lost like that last week to the 49ers

For those unaware the Packers have lost to the 49ers the last 5 times they've met in the playoffs dating back to 2013. Brutal.

 

[jaster]

It's entirely that. It is pretty clear Ilitch doesn't want to seriously wade into free agency or we would have Correa here. This makes me think the GM knows there won't be an open wallet to re-sign his own guys, either. So he has to gamble a bit and get out ahead of it and hope that the overpay now is made up for down the road.

Personally, I like it. I don't know if it is going to work out but I like that our front office feels confident enough in itself to take this swing. Reminds me of Yzerman drafting Seider.

Yeah, I like it too. I believe in Keith's bat, I think there is a good enough offensive floor there that this contract isn't a huge risk.

The question will be his defense. They transitioned him to 2B last season, largely due to his fringey arm, but many question his actions and if he can even be an average 2B. It's interesting, though, that his defensive numbers at 2B last season for Erie/Toledo were pretty good. Errors aren't everything, especially when you don't have great range and aren't making plays on as many tough grounders, but in 354 innings (40-game equivalent) he had only 2 errors (.987 Fld%).

We'll find out soon enough. Looks like they've paved the way for him to be the starting 2B on Opening Day. As a rookie, I expect ups and downs at the plate, but hopefully he doesn't play his way off 2B.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Yeah, I like it too. I believe in Keith's bat, I think there is a good enough offensive floor there that this contract isn't a huge risk.

The question will be his defense. They transitioned him to 2B last season, largely due to his fringey arm, but many question his actions and if he can even be an average 2B. It's interesting, though, that his defensive numbers at 2B last season for Erie/Toledo were pretty good. Errors aren't everything, especially when you don't have great range and aren't making plays on as many tough grounders, but in 354 innings (40-game equivalent) he had only 2 errors (.987 Fld%).

We'll find out soon enough. Looks like they've paved the way for him to be the starting 2B on Opening Day. As a rookie, I expect ups and downs at the plate, but hopefully he doesn't play his way off 2B.

Hey man, I lived through an era that allowed Dan Uggla to mash his way to a modest career with mediocre range and fielding ability, and he did that with a piss poor batting average. If he can do it, Keith can have a good career at 2B.

 

[Reality Check]

I figured it was a foregone conclusion they'd lose Ben Johnson. All kinds of smoke around him being offered the job in Washington.

It's possible Johnson could stick around for another year. He did so last year. But I can't imagine anything other than one more year here.

Even so, his stock may never be higher at this point.

 

[Winger98]

Yeah, I like it too. I believe in Keith's bat, I think there is a good enough offensive floor there that this contract isn't a huge risk.

The question will be his defense. They transitioned him to 2B last season, largely due to his fringey arm, but many question his actions and if he can even be an average 2B. It's interesting, though, that his defensive numbers at 2B last season for Erie/Toledo were pretty good. Errors aren't everything, especially when you don't have great range and aren't making plays on as many tough grounders, but in 354 innings (40-game equivalent) he had only 2 errors (.987 Fld%).

We'll find out soon enough. Looks like they've paved the way for him to be the starting 2B on Opening Day. As a rookie, I expect ups and downs at the plate, but hopefully he doesn't play his way off 2B.

First guy I thought of was Jhonny Peralta. No range at short, but was dependable with everything he could get go and was a good bat. If Keith can carve out a similar career playing second...that's not a bad player.

 

[jkutswings]

BOOM! Ben Johnson to remain in Detroit as OC!

BREAKING: Johnson Says 'No' to Commanders, Remains with Lions

Ben Johnson is returning to the Detroit Lions, meaning the Washington Commanders won't hire him.

www.si.com

That's absolutely huge. Go Lions!