Player Discussion Michael Grabner

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You guys do know we're 53 games into an 82 game season right?

That's a long fluke for a third/fourth liner.

could be likely a meet-in-the-middle situation. I've never seen Grabner rip wrist shots, especially bar down, on breakaways like he has this season. I think this is a better player than he's been in other years, and I don't think the sh% raise is completely incidental. (Also think Miller needs to get much more credit when we discuss Grabner's success.) But I imagine we shouldn't count on him for 30 goals, or to lead the league in EV goals ever.

That said, it's important to note that a player who gets you as many chances as Grabner does is valuable outside his production.
 
without any reasonable doubt this is a fluke.

I don't think it is a full fluke. 30 goals in 76 games. 20 goals in 78. 16 in 45.

He is a player that has to be in the right system to succeed. Trade him right now and I bet he scores 2-3 goals the rest of the season to whoever trades for him. I would expect him to score 20 next year if we still have him. I think that is reasonable. I had him pegged for at least 15+ this year and people said I was crazy. I knew he would be a good fit.
 
He doesn't need to score 30 goals. He's effective enough on the PK to make him worth his contract whether he's got those 23 ES goals in 53 games or not. Nice plus, though.
 
Again on the shooting percentage it should be kept in mind that Grabner has 21 goals on 116 shots and then 4 empty net goals for his other 4 shots. Factory out those empty net goals and his shooting % drops a bit.
 
Again on the shooting percentage it should be kept in mind that Grabner has 21 goals on 116 shots and then 4 empty net goals for his other 4 shots. Factory out those empty net goals and his shooting % drops a bit.

18.1% is still pretty high.
 
I noticed a few days ago from some post that he's in absurd shape. Does anybody know if he was always like that or if it's a semi recent thing? Could be tied to his dramatic increase in scoring if it's a recent thing but I never really followed him before NYR so I couldn't say.

I believe he's had some injuries he didn't fully heal from until recently but don't quote me on that. His numbers increase is pretty much because of his high shooting percentage but with the number of great chances he gets this season it's not actually that shocking that he has a high shooting percentage

If he was 25 he'd be a core piece IMO. Again he does things similar to what Hagelin did/does and that's extremely valuable to a team that wants to play a speedy game. If the Rangers had a line on a way to improve the D and he'd be willing to sign for like $3 mill per year I'd even consider extending him 3-4 years...players like hi are extremely valuable for a team that wants to win the cup even if he's not scoring 30 goals per season
 
"All these previous seasons"...you mean when he scored 34 goals, 20 goals and 16 (in 45 games) during the lockout right?

Grabner has done this before, people act like this is a super flukey season. While it hasn't happened lately there have been reasons why (stated several times in this very thread). With Grabner it is somewhat hard to predict where he will be in two to three years based on his past, but it is in no way a given that he will fall off the face of the earth next season again.


I disagree. He has the tools (speed and shot) to succeed in today's NHL if the team he plays for knows how to use him. And if he regresses to lets say 16-20 goals next season nobody can say that is bad production for a 3rd/4th liner.

What in God's hockey ice kingdom is "expected" goals? All I "expected" from Grabs was improving the PK and contributing 15-20 goals. If THAT was all he did, it wouldve been a successful signing......obviously he is giving us MUCH MORE, and is obviously capable of this in an annual way (in other words, not a fluke)......even if he slows down a bit, he'd still be a weapon.......the key was always......who is capable of getting him the puck on the fly? Anyone on Toronto? Obviously not. What good is his speed if there isnt a player on the ice capable of getting it to him in stride? Here, we have multiple quality passers, Zuccha, JT, Stepan, Hayes.
 
Think the Rangers are better off keeping him for a run or two. I did not think the Rangers were sellers now. Upgrade the D, and think they have a legit chance. Grabner is just that scoring depth that helps you get deep into the playoffs.
 
That is something we desperately lacked last season on our PK
Yes it was......valuable to the largest extent.

"All these previous seasons"...you mean when he scored 34 goals, 20 goals and 16 (in 45 games) during the lockout right?

Grabner has done this before, people act like this is a super flukey season. While it hasn't happened lately there have been reasons why (stated several times in this very thread). With Grabner it is somewhat hard to predict where he will be in two to three years based on his past, but it is in no way a given that he will fall off the face of the earth next season again.
He HAS done this before, so I cannot understand how anyone can say that this is an out and out FLUKE!
This last statement couldn't be any more truthful.

I disagree. He has the tools (speed and shot) to succeed in today's NHL if the team he plays for knows how to use him. And if he regresses to lets say 16-20 goals next season nobody can say that is bad production for a 3rd/4th liner.
He became one of the recipients reaping the rewards of the little allowed clutching and grabbing. His speed is tailor made for the NEW NHL, as stated above.
without any reasonable doubt this is a fluke.
I'm a little confused by your wording.....but knowing you, its not in Grabs favor and discrediting what he affords this Rangers team. So, you're suggesting he cannot get at least 30 next year, if we assume he will do at least that this year?
Sounds negative and pessimistic.

If someone offers me a first for grabner take it and run.
But Grabner will skate right past you, and the offer will be bypassed.

Grabner is a key player but not a core player.

You need strong bottom 6 forwards to win and that's what Grabner is. What he brings to depth and special teams is huge.
That said, his scoring is definitely fluky. I'm not surprised his shooting percentage is way above average, he gets an obscene amount of breakaways. What is surprising is that his shooting percentage is this abnormally high (over 20%, compared to his pre-16-17 career average of 11.7%) which is due to the fact that he is actually scoring on a lot of them, something he struggled with in the past.

Still, even if his shooting percentage normalizes you're looking at a bottom 6 player with nearly 20 goals who doesnt play the PP and excels on the PK. That is pretty awesome.
I think we get a nice offer for him before expansion, and then we all miss him next year.

This may be true to an extent because of his age, but maybe, just maybe he has finally figured out how to slow down his game to the point of actually putting himself into a better position to score, opposed to mach speed and being ahead of the puck on his stick. He could become the next Jagr and play till he's 40+ and very successful at that.
If we get a nice offer for him.......do we definitely "take it"? Toronto's loss was our gain, because he underproduced on an inefficient offensive team. Why should we allow him to leave a successful marriage with an offense that KNOWS HIM and what it takes to succeed?


Same here and I love Grabs. Especially if it comes from a team making a playoff push rather than a top team. The difference could be pick 18-20 compared to 28-30.
I understand that the upcoming draft isnt anything special, are we really trying to recoup draft picks in exchange for a stick of dynamite named Grabner that does everything we need and more? Sorry, I'll take the bird (Eagle) in hand.

The Rangers stretch game plays to his biggest strength and he's playing with very good players. Maybe this is a bit flukey but maybe not. As far as the shooting %--so many of his shots are coming from being in alone on the goaltender. Those kinds of shots are high percentage. The Rangers are looking to break this guy all the time and we've seen him even in one on one situations skate right around the defender. We've also seen a bunch of posts and crossbars. The Rangers are using his skating skills as a weapon to intimidate the opposition and the fact that 0 of his goals are off the power play and he's leading the league in even strength goals is testimony to how well that strategy has worked.

These 2 statements, people really need to let sink in. Its the truth, no matter if you want to admit it, or not. Especially the "maybe not" part.

The thing with Grabner is that yes it's extremely unlikely that he keeps up this pace even for the rest of the year much less next year, but his overall play is quite good and while he's a different style than Hagelin, he brings some of the same things which helps the team a lot. Pushing the opposing defense, being a threat to steal a puck and streak down the ice, pressure players before they're ready, etc. If a team blows you away with an offer, sure trade him, but if your offers are crap just keep him through next year (if he isn't picked in the expansion draft) and use the good things he brings to the team.
With that etc.......I will include something that HASN'T BEEN MENTIONED. Opposing defenseman cannot and sometimes WILL NOT pinch, knkwing he is on the ice, and the "slightest hesitation, or misread" will lead to a breakaway. He gets them anyway, but you have to believe it alleviates some offensive pressure put on the Rangers if they simply cannot take that chance. He SAVES goals.
A guy isn't future garbage just because he's overperforming now

Yes, even if he leveled out to what we all may have expected, he is still a good find, and I may be of the minority in thinking that as long as he stays on this team and he has JT, Zuccha and Hayes feeding him.......well, 30 goals should be "expected" and therfore the year after......people would have no choice but to say it wasnt a fluke.

grabner scored 34 goals for the islanders in 2010-11

his production diminished every season after that (one season was cut short but you get what im saying)

hes a great player to have this season and id love for him to keep this up but i dont think he will be able to for multiple years
Could've been on his teammates, bad luck, injuries, family problems, bad regimen, partying too much........lots of things could cause anyone to have a bad season......, seems like a rejuvenated player to me, and on a mission.......just saying.

could be likely a meet-in-the-middle situation. I've never seen Grabner rip wrist shots, especially bar down, on breakaways like he has this season. I think this is a better player than he's been in other years, and I don't think the sh% raise is completely incidental. (Also think Miller needs to get much more credit when we discuss Grabner's success.) But I imagine we shouldn't count on him for 30 goals, or to lead the league in EV goals ever.

That said, it's important to note that a player who gets you as many chances as Grabner does is valuable outside his production.
Yeah like said above........backing off offensive defensemen in our dzone.

I don't think it is a full fluke. 30 goals in 76 games. 20 goals in 78. 16 in 45.

He is a player that has to be in the right system to succeed. Trade him right now and I bet he scores 2-3 goals the rest of the season to whoever trades for him. I would expect him to score 20 next year if we still have him. I think that is reasonable. I had him pegged for at least 15+ this year and people said I was crazy. I knew he would be a good fit.
And he is......leave him be. We need to protect him and trade......yeah, that guy from Minnesota. Trade him for Dumba and a #1 in 2019.

Think the Rangers are better off keeping him for a run or two. I did not think the Rangers were sellers now. Upgrade the D, and think they have a legit chance. Grabner is just that scoring depth that helps you get deep into the playoffs.


In the "nick of time!"
 
I'm a little confused by your wording.....but knowing you, its not in Grabs favor and discrediting what he affords this Rangers team. So, you're suggesting he cannot get at least 30 next year, if we assume he will do at least that this year?
Sounds negative and pessimistic.

Grabner scored 30 goals once in his career. Did he just learn how to shoot over the summer for the first time in his career? At age 30 he finally "got it"? I'm not trying to "tear down Grabner" or marginalize what he's brought to the team, but the idea that this is who he is now is just laughable. It's like his whole NHL career didn't even happen and with the Rangers he's a changed man

If you get a high 2nd or more for him you make that trade. Without a doubt.
 
I believe he's had some injuries he didn't fully heal from until recently but don't quote me on that. His numbers increase is pretty much because of his high shooting percentage but with the number of great chances he gets this season it's not actually that shocking that he has a high shooting percentage

If he was 25 he'd be a core piece IMO. Again he does things similar to what Hagelin did/does and that's extremely valuable to a team that wants to play a speedy game. If the Rangers had a line on a way to improve the D and he'd be willing to sign for like $3 mill per year I'd even consider extending him 3-4 years...players like hi are extremely valuable for a team that wants to win the cup even if he's not scoring 30 goals per season

What I mean is that going from being in good shape for the NHL to being in tremendous shape for the NHL could increase one's numbers if they know how to use that extra strength and how to play to it. Maybe he does? He's always been fast but he seems to have an extra step even above that now and he's fighting other players off using his body very well.
 
Grabner scored 30 goals once in his career. Did he just learn how to shoot over the summer for the first time in his career? At age 30 he finally "got it"? I'm not trying to "tear down Grabner" or marginalize what he's brought to the team, but the idea that this is who he is now is just laughable. It's like his whole NHL career didn't even happen and with the Rangers he's a changed man

If you get a high 2nd or more for him you make that trade. Without a doubt.

Going into this year Grabner had 104 goals in 397 games. Prorate those numbers into a single 82 game season and you've got a 22 goal guy...so it's not like the goal scoring has come out of nowhere. Again the Rangers stretch game works to his strengths and he's playing with very good players. This is a great situation for him.
 
I trade Grabner if we're stuck exposing him in the expansion draft otherwise or if someone makes a really good offer. That said, I think he can be a perennial 20 goal guy here and he is a fantastic penalty killer.
 
Going into this year Grabner had 104 goals in 397 games. Prorate those numbers into a single 82 game season and you've got a 22 goal guy...so it's not like the goal scoring has come out of nowhere. Again the Rangers stretch game works to his strengths and he's playing with very good players. This is a great situation for him.

Absolutely

I'm just not willing to call him a core player, or a protect at all costs player; which seems to be a growing sentiment with some.
 
Absolutely

I'm just not willing to call him a core player, or a protect at all costs player; which seems to be a growing sentiment with some.

Not a core player, but certainly a big role player on this team. The cap he has should not be an issue even if he only scores around 20 goals next season. He has exceeded expectations this year, and even if he comes down to earth next season think he will still be an effective player and worth keeping . But might have to risk exposing him to keep the core players protected.
 
Absolutely

I'm just not willing to call him a core player, or a protect at all costs player; which seems to be a growing sentiment with some.

For us Michael's replaced and been even a major improvement on Carl Hagelin. Apart from the point production--there were two major areas where Hagelin stood out---on the penalty kill and in last minute protecting a lead situations. Hagelin with his speed covered so much area and pressured the points to such an effect that the Rangers almost never lost a game in the last minute. He had the point men on their heels all the time. Last year without Hagelin the Rangers lost a number of games in the last minutes. Grabner's replaced all that with the added benefit of scoring a lot more goals. When I see Grabner in those kinds of situations he's as intimidating as a shark in your swimming pool. You make a mistake and you're lunch. I think he is a key player and tremendous value for his cap hit.
 
I wouldn't assume he is going to continue a 35+ goal pace into next year, but it's likelier than some think. As others pointed out, "right team, right situation". This team plays to his strengths.

If he normalizes and continues with the Rangers, I think he could absolutely be a 25-30 goal player for another 2-3 years. That's what he was expected to be early on in his career. The worse years of his were more of the fluke. Playing on a team that doesn't expect him to be more than he is, that plays to his strengths, he can be a fantastic goal scorer.

Trading him for a 2nd rounder or more is pointless. I'd even entertain trading our 1st round pick this year to Vegas not to take him. Losing Hagelin hurt us bad, and now we got a version of Hagelin back that is capable of many more goals. Players like Grabner and Hagelin are not that common. He's one of the top 5-10 fastest players in the league and creates havoc every time he's on the ice. 30 goals or not, that is extremely valuable for our team in particular. If we're only a d-man or two away from being a top flight contender, I'd rather keep Grabs and figure out a way to improve the D.
 
Grabner scored 30 goals once in his career. Did he just learn how to shoot over the summer for the first time in his career? At age 30 he finally "got it"? I'm not trying to "tear down Grabner" or marginalize what he's brought to the team, but the idea that this is who he is now is just laughable. It's like his whole NHL career didn't even happen and with the Rangers he's a changed man

If you get a high 2nd or more for him you make that trade. Without a doubt.

We traded a 2nd, 3rd, and 5th for 20 games of a 30+ player who had 0 goals all season. It's contextual.

Where are we now versus where might we be 4-5 years from now when that one second rounder is (maybe) a contributing player?

This year is an overachieving year, sure. But there isn't any reason to suggest he hasn't had underperforming years recently either. I think 20-10-30 Grabner is more or less his mean output. Combine that with PK ability and you have a valuable chip. He has a year left on his contract. Look at what rental guys like Gaustad, Clowe, and other have got in the past and I'd be haggling for a first if it was a deadline deal.
 
Isles fan here in peace. This season will most likely be a career year for him but I agree with the notion that he is worth keeping around for another few years.

He had some bad injuries on the Island and played under Capuano and then on a horrid Leafs team last year. Even if he is a guy who thrives under the right circumstances, the Rangers have provided those circumstances and as long as the guys who are complimentary to him stick around, so should he.

When he came back from injury in 14-15 he honestly didn't even look that bad, he was a healthy scratch multiple times and in the limited ice time he got, he scored 8 in 34 games with no PP time and limited TOI in general.

He was always a case of "if his hands catch up to his feet..."

If he's worked on his shot and finishing 1 on 1 with goalies, he'll be a consistent 25 goal guy.
 
You guys also need to remember that Grabner played for fringe playoff teams or worse. This is the first time in his career he plays on a really good team. This does not come out of nowhere.

Regarding trade, expansion draft etc I found this article to be a good read
https://bluelinestation.com/2017/02/08/new-york-rangers-michael-grabner-trade-rumor-expansion-draft/

And not necessarily a good team but a deeper team. Our forward group is probably the deepest in the league and Grabs definitely takes advantage of better match ups. That's not necessarily a bad thing.
 
I wouldn't assume he is going to continue a 35+ goal pace into next year, but it's likelier than some think. As others pointed out, "right team, right situation". This team plays to his strengths.

If he normalizes and continues with the Rangers, I think he could absolutely be a 25-30 goal player for another 2-3 years. That's what he was expected to be early on in his career. The worse years of his were more of the fluke. Playing on a team that doesn't expect him to be more than he is, that plays to his strengths, he can be a fantastic goal scorer.

Trading him for a 2nd rounder or more is pointless. I'd even entertain trading our 1st round pick this year to Vegas not to take him. Losing Hagelin hurt us bad, and now we got a version of Hagelin back that is capable of many more goals. Players like Grabner and Hagelin are not that common. He's one of the top 5-10 fastest players in the league and creates havoc every time he's on the ice. 30 goals or not, that is extremely valuable for our team in particular. If we're only a d-man or two away from being a top flight contender, I'd rather keep Grabs and figure out a way to improve the D.


There is no way I'd sacrifice our 1st in order to retain Grabner.
 
I wouldn't assume he is going to continue a 35+ goal pace into next year, but it's likelier than some think. As others pointed out, "right team, right situation". This team plays to his strengths.

If he normalizes and continues with the Rangers, I think he could absolutely be a 25-30 goal player for another 2-3 years. That's what he was expected to be early on in his career. The worse years of his were more of the fluke. Playing on a team that doesn't expect him to be more than he is, that plays to his strengths, he can be a fantastic goal scorer.

Trading him for a 2nd rounder or more is pointless. I'd even entertain trading our 1st round pick this year to Vegas not to take him. Losing Hagelin hurt us bad, and now we got a version of Hagelin back that is capable of many more goals. Players like Grabner and Hagelin are not that common. He's one of the top 5-10 fastest players in the league and creates havoc every time he's on the ice. 30 goals or not, that is extremely valuable for our team in particular. If we're only a d-man or two away from being a top flight contender, I'd rather keep Grabs and figure out a way to improve the D.

Trading the Rangers first so LV doesn't take him would be a God awful decision.
 
The thing with Grabner is that yes it's extremely unlikely that he keeps up this pace even for the rest of the year much less next year, but his overall play is quite good and while he's a different style than Hagelin, he brings some of the same things which helps the team a lot. Pushing the opposing defense, being a threat to steal a puck and streak down the ice, pressure players before they're ready, etc. If a team blows you away with an offer, sure trade him, but if your offers are crap just keep him through next year (if he isn't picked in the expansion draft) and use the good things he brings to the team.

A guy isn't future garbage just because he's overperforming now
It should also be noted that this is likely the best club he has ever played on and it is impossible to shadow 3rd liners like Grabner....we have threats on every line.....and Grabner is playing against weaker opponents because of that which to our benefit has afforded him room to wheel freely and score more......plus he was on a CRAP team last season....likely amazing he scored as many as he did there n Toronto . Smart move by Gorton to sign him for two seasons....I sure would hate to lose him in the draft . He has been our best forward ALL season.
 
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