Dreger: McDavid may cost 14 million

[Territory]

Please edmonton for the sakes of all other teams with good young players keep the AAV down!

 

[Shmuffalo]

McDavid will be a RFA for quite a while and that will limit what he makes.... McDavid despite being a generational talent will not get an offer sheet for 2 reasons. 1. Edmonton would never allow it and would give McDavid whatever he asked for and 2. Giving up 5 first round picks + a 14 million dollar cap hit would really screw with teams plans for the future, so handing McDavid an offer sheet just isn't worth it. The money and picks needed to get McDavid could be put to way better use.

So... he'll get 14 million?

 

[Hawksfan2828]

So... he'll get 14 million?

He will get whatever the league max is at the time, absolutely - if that's 14 million then yes.

 

[rajuabju]

12.5-13.0

There is simply no way its less. Look at comps like Kopitar, Kane etc... All lesser players making 10.

 

[Sam Pollock]

If Matthews becomes a player on Mcdavids level I don't care if he wants a comparable salary too

How are the Leafs going to afford to keep the rest of the team then? If Matthews is worth $14 million per season, then what is Marner, Nylander, Reilly, etc. worth then?

 

[Newusername]

12.125 mil / 8 years, you heard it here first

 

[member 157595]

I don't think McDavid asks for 14 million. I think he gets around 11 million per year, maybe 12. Anything under 11 for by far the highest-value asset in the entire league is gravy. If he accepts 9.7M/year it will be for a very short-term deal.

In all honesty, there's no realistic price that warrants parting with McDavid.

 

[member 157595]

12.125 mil / 8 years, you heard it here first

I wouldn't be surprised. Edmonton will like the 8 years, Connor will like the $97M.

 

[Faltorvo]

Top actual salaries in the NHL at time of signing:

Shea Weber: $14 million
Jonathan Toews: $13.8 million
Patrick Kane: $13.8 million
Sidney Crosby: $12 million
Henrik Lundqvist: $10 million
Alex Ovechkin: $10 million

Some interesting notes along the way. Weber maintains a manageable cap hit because of a massive $68 million signing bonus spread out over his first four years. Toew's and Kane's contracts includes $44 million in signing bonuses. Crosby's contract is structured in a way that is now against the CBA rules, and is only what it is because of three years at the tail end where he is paid $3 million a season. Lundqvist's salary cap hit was managed by a $14 million signing bonus. Ovechkin is the only player to see his salary escalate over the term of the contract.

First thing Oilers fans need to do is get over this "Oiler thing" they are clinging to. This would happen if McDavid were playing for any other team in the NHL. This is business. There is no way that McDavid takes a cent under league max. It just isn't in the player's or players' best interests. Any agency worth their salt will milk as much out of whatever team he plays for. Also, there is no way he signs for anything more than five years. What benefit would there be for him to give up any UFA years, when every team in the league will again be lining up with massive offers? The goal here is to get the player the max dollars and the minimum term, so he can then get all the benefits from the next negotiation, where all benefits are on the table.

My guess for the next McDavid contract is in the ball park of $72-75 million over a five year term. This is what the Orr agency and the NHLPA will want out of the deal. The eal after that is where the real games begin and all the loop holes come out of the woodwork to make the McDavid signing the model for the next generation of superstar contracts.

i don't believe that sentiment one little bit.


the players as a whole are already getting 15% (approx) above the 50/50 split

ergo, what "extra " goes to a top player, comes out of the pocket of others.

there is literally nothing to "gun for" regarding the NHLPA, they as a whole already collect over the 50/50 split

a 14m player right now basically forces the team to carry 5 1m players just to cover his overage.

Now you compound the fact that any roster player above a 3.25m cap hit has to have that taken from the remaining players.

lucic/rnh/pouliot/sek/klef/lars/talb already add up to 12.5m over the player average

that takes 6 1m players to balance out


thats a roster now with 11 1m players just to balance all those above 3.25m average player allotment.

and i have not even mentioned Drais or nurse RFA deals , any of those 2 end up under the 3.25m allotment?

 

[Auston Marlander]

That would be ungood for the Leafs

Worse new for the Oilers.

 

[TropicalAntarctica]

I don't think McDavid asks for 14 million. I think he gets around 11 million per year, maybe 12. Anything under 11 for by far the highest-value asset in the entire league is gravy. If he accepts 9.7M/year it will be for a very short-term deal.

In all honesty, there's no realistic price that warrants parting with McDavid.

Yes there is. If I was an Oilers fan, I would not be willing to pay him 14m. You have Draisaitl and RNH as a 1C and solid 2C. Puljujarvi another elite player in waiting on the wing. Ditch McDavid for a return with a superstar wing and other valuable pieces. Preferably ones that would rather be on a winning team rather than have a few extra million that they'd make up for in one year of endorsements.

There is such a thing as too much AAV. Crosby and Malkin are both better than him right now and are on contracts with 2/3rds that cap hit. That is why they can actually compete. Pick your battles and know when to be smart here.

 

[Hawksfan2828]

I don't think McDavid asks for 14 million. I think he gets around 11 million per year, maybe 12. Anything under 11 for by far the highest-value asset in the entire league is gravy. If he accepts 9.7M/year it will be for a very short-term deal.

In all honesty, there's no realistic price that warrants parting with McDavid.

Sorry but McDavid has an agent, and his agent will demand top salary.... He has an agent for this reason - to take care of the money side of being a professional athlete..

 

[member 157595]

Yes there is. If I was an Oilers fan, I would not be willing to pay him 14m. You have Draisaitl and RNH as a 1C and solid 2C. Puljujarvi another elite player in waiting on the wing. Ditch McDavid for a return with a superstar wing and other valuable pieces. Preferably ones that would rather be on a winning team rather than have a few extra million that they'd make up for in one year of endorsements.

There is such a thing as too much AAV. Crosby and Malkin are both better than him right now and are on contracts with 2/3rds that cap hit. That is why they can actually compete. Pick your battles and know when to be smart here.

Crosby and Malkin signed their deals long ago, when their cash value as a percentage of the salary cap is comparable to what 14M/year is now.

Also, do you really think the optics of not signing Connor McDavid at any price will play well in in the town where Pocklington sold Gretzky, the fans bleed hockey and have long memories?

I don't think Connor will demand $14M, though he could because there's multiple NHL teams that would pay him that and laugh all the way to the bank.

 

[member 157595]

Sorry but McDavid has an agent, and his agent will demand top salary.... He has an agent for this reason - to take care of the money side of being a professional athlete..

Maybe, but I still doubt 14 million.

Come to think of it, is Scott Boras a NHL agent too? Maybe Bryce Harper can buy a NHL team with his future contract and sign McDavid to said team?

 

[ManofSteel55]

Crosby and Malkin signed their deals long ago, when their cash value as a percentage of the salary cap is comparable to what 14M/year is now.

Also, do you really think the optics of not signing Connor McDavid at any price will play well in in the town where Pocklington sold Gretzky, the fans bleed hockey and have long memories?

I don't think Connor will demand $14M, though he could because there's multiple NHL teams that would pay him that and laugh all the way to the bank.

Crosby and Malkin also signed their deals in a time when the salary cap was going up at a faster rate than it is currently. Cap percentage is a flawed argument for that reason alone. They weren't crippling their team long term.

I doubt 14 million is the final value. Stamkos was supposed to get 12.5. Gaudreau was supposed to get 9. Giordano was supposed to get 7+ for 8 years and he got less money and term. Even if McDavid's agent is asking 14, it's part of the negotiating process.

 

[karnige]

another thing is if mcdavid signs for let's say... 10? you can bet the NHLPA will step in and argue the oilers low-balled the kid. like it or not mcdavid is getting max

 

[Lemieuxs]

Yes there is. If I was an Oilers fan, I would not be willing to pay him 14m. You have Draisaitl and RNH as a 1C and solid 2C. Puljujarvi another elite player in waiting on the wing. Ditch McDavid for a return with a superstar wing and other valuable pieces. Preferably ones that would rather be on a winning team rather than have a few extra million that they'd make up for in one year of endorsements.

There is such a thing as too much AAV. Crosby and Malkin are both better than him right now and are on contracts with 2/3rds that cap hit. That is why they can actually compete. Pick your battles and know when to be smart here.

When Crosby and Malkin signed their contracts, the percentage of the cap max was similar to what 14 million would be of the current cap max. In other words, yes, Crosby and Malkin make 2/3 or so of 14 million but percentage wise, 14 million is on par with what both Sid and Geno signed with years ago.

Salaries go up. McDavid is billed as the best player in the world. He will be paid as such. The trick is getting the other players to take a discount to play with the best player in the league. Which is what Shero/Rutherford have tried to do in the past.

 

[Tunez33]

Crosby and Malkin also signed their deals in a time when the salary cap was going up at a faster rate than it is currently. Cap percentage is a flawed argument for that reason alone. They weren't crippling their team long term.

I doubt 14 million is the final value. Stamkos was supposed to get 12.5. Gaudreau was supposed to get 9. Giordano was supposed to get 7+ for 8 years and he got less money and term. Even if McDavid's agent is asking 14, it's part of the negotiating process.

but stamkos signed in a place with no income tax, i would imagine if he signed in toronto like rumored it would have been around 10-11million to make the same money

 

[Superlative Soup]

12.125 mil / 8 years, you heard it here first

We've literally heard this prediction 8 times in this thread already

 

[Lemieuxs]

Crosby and Malkin also signed their deals in a time when the salary cap was going up at a faster rate than it is currently. Cap percentage is a flawed argument for that reason alone. They weren't crippling their team long term.

I doubt 14 million is the final value. Stamkos was supposed to get 12.5. Gaudreau was supposed to get 9. Giordano was supposed to get 7+ for 8 years and he got less money and term. Even if McDavid's agent is asking 14, it's part of the negotiating process.

Cap Percentage is NOT a flawed argument. It is literally the ONLY argument in this case. McDavid is the best player in the league. MVP. He should be paid the highest percentage allowed under the CBA and the other players in the league should be measured below that mark.

 

[McNasty]

I think you'll see him sign a 5 year deal for between 11-12M per.

 

[karnige]

When Crosby and Malkin signed their contracts, the percentage of the cap max was similar to what 14 million would be of the current cap max. In other words, yes, Crosby and Malkin make 2/3 or so of 14 million but percentage wise, 14 million is on par with what both Sid and Geno signed with years ago.

Salaries go up. McDavid is billed as the best player in the world. He will be paid as such. The trick is getting the other players to take a discount to play with the best player in the league. Which is what Shero/Rutherford have tried to do in the past.

which is why chia is trying to make the cap room now before it turns into the blackhawks. lock up solid young RFA talent early. he has a plan. in the end drai and mcdavid are going to eat up 25 mill in salary between them a year. that's 40 million or so left. yikes x100. but lucic, Larsson, lucic, are locked up long term. they have solid players that can go anywhere from the 3rd to the 1st. a penguins strategy.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

How are the Leafs going to afford to keep the rest of the team then? If Matthews is worth $14 million per season, then what is Marner, Nylander, Reilly, etc. worth then?

Matthews isn't as good as McDavid. It's hard to judge McDavid's rookie year because he missed half the season, but otherwise we're talking about a player who just had the most impactful sophomore season since Crosby was a sophomore in '07.

If Matthews progresses to where he is as good as McDavid and matches or bests what McDavid has done in his 2nd year, meaning he can reasonably ask for Crosby level money on his post ELC deal (aka 17% of the cap) that will be a GOOD problem for Toronto to have because that will mean Matthews blew away all expectations.

 

[big ape]

Wow. I was hoping he'd come in around 11 so Matthews wouldn't be all, McDavid got 14 I want 12.

Well according to idiots like Jeff O'Neil Matthews is a better player so he'll require a higher salary. Lol

 

[karnige]

Matthews isn't as good as McDavid. It's hard to judge McDavid's rookie year because he missed half the season, but otherwise we're talking about a player who just had the most impactful sophomore season since Crosby was a sophomore in '07.

If Matthews progresses to where he is as good as McDavid and matches or bests what McDavid has done in his 2nd year, meaning he can reasonably ask for Crosby level money on his post ELC deal (aka 17% of the cap) that will be a GOOD problem for Toronto to have because that will mean Matthews blew away all expectations.

it could happen you never know. although 100 points when the league is ready for you is tough to do.