McDavid heating up, what are odds on 150 points this season?

[wetcoast]

It's been another two weeks, so here's an update on McDavid's probability of reaching each of these milestones (assuming he plays all 82 games):

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]120[/TD]

[TD]

100.0%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]130[/TD]

[TD]

99.8%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]140[/TD]

[TD]

83.5%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]150[/TD]

[TD]

25.0%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]160[/TD]

[TD]

1.4%​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Barring injury, McDavid is almost certain to become the first player in nearly three decades to score 130 points.

His probability of reaching 140 points is now higher than it's been at any other point during the season.

He probably won't reach 150 points, but the likelihood is still the highest it's been since early January.

Looks like he is increasing his odds to day and might be the "triple crown winner" in the NHL against an actually really good field too.

So much fun to be an NHL fan these days.

 

[Pass the Saitl Sauce]

He is just unbelievable.

He just scored his 800th point, (at 809 now) in theory with another strong playoffs, he could hit 1000 points by then end of next season...that is just unfathomable.

What does a strong playoffs do? He’s at 809 regular season points

 

[authentic]

He's going to have pick up the pace to have any hope of hitting 160...

He may just go for the best point total after Gretzky and Lemieux. Yzerman's 155 may not be safe.

 

[Video Nasty]

He is just unbelievable.

He just scored his 800th point, (at 809 now) in theory with another strong playoffs, he could hit 1000 points by then end of next season...that is just unfathomable.

153 this season and 150 next season would do it. Hard to ask of and I think it’s likely he’ll drop back a little next season, but yeah, it’s unfathomable that it’s a point that can be even considered.

Simply spectacular that a player who only played half his rookie season and missed almost another half of games due to COVID scheduling can be still be knocking on the door of 1000 points after just 9 seasons in the league.

 

[wetcoast]

He may just go for the best point total after Gretzky and Lemieux. Yzerman's 155 may not be safe.

As good as McDavid is a lot would have to go the right way for McDavid to match Stevie Yzerman at 155 not that it matters.

 

[PuckG]

McDavid’s usual last 20-25 game heater has evidently begun.

 

[Mulletman]

As good as McDavid is a lot would have to go the right way for McDavid to match Stevie Yzerman at 155 not that it matters.

I bet McDavid would hit it if somebody asked Yzerman about it, and Yzerman would cut a heel promo about how he doesn't think McDavid could do it and goes on to pointing out how todays star players can't measure up to him and other star guys in the 80s and 90s.

 

[ForsbergForever]

As good as McDavid is a lot would have to go the right way for McDavid to match Stevie Yzerman at 155 not that it matters.

Or, you know, he just keeps exactly the same pace he's currently been on for months now...

 

[jeffff]

What does a strong playoffs do? He’s at 809 regular season points

haha you're right....I don't know what I was thinking.

 

[wetcoast]

I bet McDavid would hit it if somebody asked Yzerman about it, and Yzerman would cut a heel promo about how he doesn't think McDavid could do it and goes on to pointing out how todays star players can't measure up to him and other star guys in the 80s and 90s.

Are you okay Sir?

Not sure where you are coming from but there is no way that Yzerman would do that and even he realizes that McDavid is the superior offensive player.

 

[Dessert Nights]

Imho 140 in 78 is when McDavid still has a solid chance for 150 in 82. 10 points in last 4 is doable. This means 28 points in next 18 games will put him in that position. That's 1.56 P/GP or 128 point per 82 games pace.

 

[wetcoast]

Or, you know, he just keeps exactly the same pace he's currently been on for months now...

Still to do it in an actual NHL season means something ahs to really go his way, not trying to downplay Connor one bit here but the NHL is an extremely good league.

 

[ricky0034]

too bad he stopped shooting

 

[blundluntman]

50 goals will be great enough as far as milestones go but 60 will put him in very rare territory. Only 3 players have touched 60 since 96 if I'm not mistaken.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Back to back 4 point games.

11 points in last 3

 

[BallardEra]

Now on pace for 154 points.

Second place Draisaitl is 25 points back.

 

[wetcoast]

Back to back 4 point games.

11 points in last 3

But he didn't get the hatty....yet only 4 measly points.

 

[Akrapovince]

I’m just curious, why does everyone think McDavid is going to regress next season?

He’s been McConsistent putting up his 2-3 points a night and isn’t really riding any hot streak. He’s playing in a sustainable way.

How many games this year did McDavid walk into the dressing room with a goal and 2 assist and you think to yourself how did he not have 6 points tonight?

When you say a player is about to break 150 points, you would think everything is going right for him and every generated chance has ended up in the net. It really hasn’t.

If he plays this exact season again with a little more luck I can see him improving to 160.

I don’t see regression.

Other teams next year are going to have to play looser to keep up with McDavid.

McDavid isn’t scoring more because point scoring is up. Point scoring is up because people are trying to keep up with McDavid.

 

[Lavar Ball]

He is creeping in on 2 Points per game

 

[ricky0034]

this is the first time McDavid has ever had back to back 4 point games

 

[6ix]

4 points today and they still lose courtesy of Jack Campbell

 

[wetcoast]

50 goals will be great enough as far as milestones go but 60 will put him in very rare territory. Only 3 players have touched 60 since 96 if I'm not mistaken.

You are right and his 113 points this season are also the 14th best since the 95-96 season.

McDavid also has the 4th and 10 best scoring finishes since then which will be knocked down to 5th and 11th to go along with current 21,27 and 36th spots in the top 50.

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[jigglysquishy]

Now on pace for 154 points.

Second place Draisaitl is 25 points back.

Only players to win an Art Ross by 25 or more points: Gretzky x8, Lemieux x1, Esposito x1.

He's 28.4% ahead of Draisailt. Only players to beat that

Gretzky x6
Howe x 2
Morenz x1
Cowley x1 (during WW II)

 

[wetcoast]

I’m just curious, why does everyone think McDavid is going to regress next season?

He’s been McConsistent putting up his 2-3 points a night and isn’t really riding any hot streak. He’s playing in a sustainable way.

How many games this year did McDavid walk into the dressing room with a goal and 2 assist and you think to yourself how did he not have 6 points tonight?

When you say a player is about to break 150 points, you would think everything is going right for him and every generated chance has ended up in the net. It really hasn’t.

If he plays this exact season again with a little more luck I can see him improving to 160.

I don’t see regression.

Other teams next year are going to have to play looser to keep up with McDavid.

McDavid isn’t scoring more because point scoring is up. Point scoring is up because people are trying to keep up with McDavid.

I don't see regression but a guy can get sick and or miss a couple of games or play through a nagging injury ect...

 

[Video Nasty]

50 goals will be great enough as far as milestones go but 60 will put him in very rare territory. Only 3 players have touched 60 since 96 if I'm not mistaken.

Yep. Ovechkin with 65 in 2007-2008, Stamkos with 60 in 2011-2012, and Matthews with 60 last season.

McDavid still has a chance to top Ovechkin for the most since Mario potted 69 in 1995-1996.

I’m just curious, why does everyone think McDavid is going to regress next season?

He’s been McConsistent putting up his 2-3 points a night and isn’t really riding any hot streak. He’s playing in a sustainable way.

How many games this year did McDavid walk into the dressing room with a goal and 2 assist and you think to yourself how did he not have 6 points tonight?

When you say a player is about to break 150 points, you would think everything is going right for him and every generated chance has ended up in the net. It really hasn’t.

If he plays this exact season again with a little more luck I can see him improving to 160.

I don’t see regression.

Other teams next year are going to have to play looser to keep up with McDavid.

McDavid isn’t scoring more because point scoring is up. Point scoring is up because people are trying to keep up with McDavid.

I don’t think people are necessarily saying he’s going to regress in terms of skill. After all, I expect him to win the Art Ross outright for at least a few more seasons…with continued good health of course.

But I think most are erring on the side of caution if he completes a 150 point campaign this year. I think it’s reasonable to expect that to be his top raw point total for his career.

And I consider myself one of the most optimistic McDavid fans on this. I felt like he could score 100+ in 56 before the 2020-2021 season started and I thought he could win the Rocket and hit 150 before this season too. These were overwhelmingly unpopular opinions that only a few agreed with at the time.

Even considering my own mindset, I simply think it’s reasonable for everyone not to expect another 150+ point season.

But it will no longer be a surprise if he sets the bar higher once again.

After all, that’s why he is in the process of morphing the Big Four into a new Big Five. He’s one of those rare players who is redefining what most thought possible in the game’s current state.