McDavid heating up, what are odds on 150 points this season?

[Aaaaaaaaaaaaa]

He hasn't dominated his peers the way Gretzky and Lemieux did.

That is the first thing I look at when judging greatness and comparing players from a historical perspective.

McDavid lost scoring races to Kucherov and Draisaitl.

These are very good players, but Gretzky and Lemieux never lost scoring races to "very good players".

Comparing in-season accomplishments of players in 1985 to now is, in short, ridiculous.

This is a COMPLETELY different game now. Let's start here: there were almost no European players in those days. Now we are about to have a Russian beat Gretzky's goal record.

Also, Gretzky and Lemieux played against guys every night that would not make the AHL in 2023.

I'm old school, but I'm still capable of learning. McDavid is BY FAR a more talented player than Gretzky, and I'm saying that as a guy who had posters of Gretzky on my wall from the time I was 9 years old in 1979.

 

[TropicOfNoReturn]

*insert generic disingenuous hyperbolic statement here*

 

[jcs0218]

Comparing in-season accomplishments of players in 1985 to now is, in short, ridiculous.

This is a COMPLETELY different game now. Let's start here: there were almost no European players in those days. Now we are about to have a Russian beat Gretzky's goal record.

Also, Gretzky and Lemieux played against guys every night that would not make the AHL in 2023.

I'm old school, but I'm still capable of learning. McDavid is BY FAR a more talented player than Gretzky, and I'm saying that as a guy who had posters of Gretzky on my wall from the time I was 9 years old in 1979.

The game has not evolved nearly as much as you think it has.

Someone posted statistics earlier this week that showed a broken-down Mario Lemieux, at 35 and after 4 years retirement, was as statistically dominant as anyone in the league.

During the middle of the dead-puck era.

This season, 2002, had the likes of Nicklas Lidstrom in his absolute prime and several other historically great players (Pronger, Niedermayer, Chara, etc.)

Lidstrom was dominating opponents as a 40 year old in 2012, way past his prime, against legends such as Crosby, Ovechkin, and Malkin.

All players in their mid-20s, in their primes, and close/equal to McDavid.

You even mentioned one of them (Ovechkin) in your post, so I assume you are saying that he is one of these "evolutionary talents" that is supposedly "way ahead" of players from the 1980s.

If Ovechkin is so ahead of 1980s players (and by extension, McDavid too), then why did Ovechkin as a 20 year old get outplayed by a 34 year old Jagr in 2006? Ovechkin was closer to his prime then compared to Jagr.

And Lemieux outside of prime always outplayed a prime Jagr.

I may have been jumping around in this post.

My general point is that a 2022 player hasn't separated themselves from the 80s-90s player nearly as much as people think.

Jagr in his early 40s earned Hart Trophy votes FFS. How is that possible if older players are so inferior to current players?

And remember that Jagr in his prime wasn't as good as Lemieux past his prime.

There is no doubt in my mind that Lemieux would beat McDavid in a scoring race.

 

[Coffey]

The game has not evolved nearly as much as you think it has.

Someone posted statistics earlier this week that showed a broken-down Mario Lemieux, at 35 and after 4 years retirement, was as statistically dominant as anyone in the league.

During the middle of the dead-puck era.

This season, 2002, had the likes of Nicklas Lidstrom in his absolute prime and several other historically great players (Pronger, Niedermayer, Chara, etc.)

Lidstrom was dominating opponents as a 40 year old in 2012, way past his prime, against legends such as Crosby, Ovechkin, and Malkin.

All players in their mid-20s, in their primes, and close/equal to McDavid.

You even mentioned one of them (Ovechkin) in your post, so I assume you are saying that he is one of these "evolutionary talents" that is supposedly "way ahead" of players from the 1980s.

If Ovechkin is so ahead of 1980s players (and by extension, McDavid too), then why did Ovechkin as a 20 year old get outplayed by a 34 year old Jagr in 2006? Ovechkin was closer to his prime then compared to Jagr.

And Lemieux outside of prime always outplayed a prime Jagr.

I may have been jumping around in this post.

My general point is that a 2022 player hasn't separated themselves from the 80s-90s player nearly as much as people think.

Jagr in his early 40s earned Hart Trophy votes FFS. How is that possible if older players are so inferior to current players?

Lemieux’s career feasted on the PP.
I think 42% of his points were on the power play.

 

[jcs0218]

Lemieux’s career feasted on the PP.
I think 42% of his points were on the power play.

Because his offensive skill couldn't be stopped if you gave him any time and space.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

With a strong performance over the past three games (3 G, 4A), according to my model, McDavid is now up to a 96% probability of scoring 50 goals, and a 39% probability of scoring 60 goals.

I'm not going to re-post the graph, but McDavid now has a (season-high) 35% probability of reaching 150 points. My model gives him virtually 100% chance of reaching 120 points, 98% chance of reaching 130, 78% chance of reaching 140, and a 7% of reaching 160.

My model actually gives McDavid a higher chance of scoring at least 170, rather than failing to reach 120. To be clear, it's very unlikely he'll reach 170. Still, McDavid is more likely to reach a threshold that only Gretzky and Lemieux have reached (in a higher-scoring era), rather than fail to get 120 - a number that nobody but him topped last year.

(As I've mentioned many times before - this is on the assumption McDavid plays all 82 games. The probability of reaching any big milestones drops off rapidly if he misses more than a handful of games).

It's been two weeks since I posted an update. Since then, McDavid has scored 10 points in seven games (which is well below his seasonal pace).

After tonight's game, my model gives him virtually a 100% probability of reaching 120 points, 97% for 130 (which would be the highest total since 1996), 73% for 140, 26% for 150, and 3% for 160.

In terms of goals - he has a 98% probability of reaching 50, and he's now up to a 45% chance of reaching 60. (Only a 2% of reaching 70 though).

I'll post this important disclaimer each time - this is on the assumption that McDavid plays all 82 games. The probability of reaching any big milestones drops off rapidly if he misses more than a handful of games.

 

[Dempsey]

Honestly, Lemieux was on another level even from what we're seeing from McDavid.

Pretty awesome that we're witnessing one of the top statistical seasons in NHL history unfold though.

 

[Nemesis Prime]

Hope he gets 155, be one of four players to hit that number.

 

[FDBluth]

The game has not evolved nearly as much as you think it has.

Someone posted statistics earlier this week that showed a broken-down Mario Lemieux, at 35 and after 4 years retirement, was as statistically dominant as anyone in the league.

During the middle of the dead-puck era.

This season, 2002, had the likes of Nicklas Lidstrom in his absolute prime and several other historically great players (Pronger, Niedermayer, Chara, etc.)

Lidstrom was dominating opponents as a 40 year old in 2012, way past his prime, against legends such as Crosby, Ovechkin, and Malkin.

All players in their mid-20s, in their primes, and close/equal to McDavid.

You even mentioned one of them (Ovechkin) in your post, so I assume you are saying that he is one of these "evolutionary talents" that is supposedly "way ahead" of players from the 1980s.

If Ovechkin is so ahead of 1980s players (and by extension, McDavid too), then why did Ovechkin as a 20 year old get outplayed by a 34 year old Jagr in 2006? Ovechkin was closer to his prime then compared to Jagr.

And Lemieux outside of prime always outplayed a prime Jagr.

I may have been jumping around in this post.

My general point is that a 2022 player hasn't separated themselves from the 80s-90s player nearly as much as people think.

Jagr in his early 40s earned Hart Trophy votes FFS. How is that possible if older players are so inferior to current players?

And remember that Jagr in his prime wasn't as good as Lemieux past his prime.

There is no doubt in my mind that Lemieux would beat McDavid in a scoring race.

Dead puck era had a lot of slow, big, unskilled players. And there were goon lines on every team. The talent discrepancy in the league was a lot wider than it is today. There is no way a 35 year old Lemieux could dominate the NHL today the way he did in the dead puck era. The pace was much slower, and the game was much less athletic and skilled. Just watch videos of games from back then. And coaching, scouting and analytics were not nearly what they are today.

 

[KCC]

McDavid had been fairly quiet lately (up until tonight) and had still been chugging a long at a point per game still. He's due for another run.

 

[Video Nasty]

Was at the game tonight, front row seats. Like most of McDavid’s games, he could have easily ended up with more points than what the box score watchers see as 2 goals and 1 assists (could have had 3-4 goals easy).

Some of you miserable doubters need to see him live. You don’t know what you’re missing.

 

[Regal]

Lemieux’s career feasted on the PP.
I think 42% of his points were on the power play.

Over 40% of McDavid’s points the past 4 years have been on the PP too though

 

[Coffey]

Over 40% of McDavid’s points the past 4 years have been on the PP too though

I said career.

 

[Duder54]

Lemieux’s career feasted on the PP.
I think 42% of his points were on the power play.

40.7%

Over 40% of McDavid’s points the past 4 years have been on the PP too though

The Oilers PP has been historically great the past few seasons. Careerwise, he's sitting around 33%

Not that I think players should be punished for being good on the PP. It's a part of the game. I mean, even Gretzky scored 31% of his points on the PP.

 

[Regal]

I said career.

So? These are the years that people are using to suggest McDavid is on the same level. So if it doesn’t detract from McDavid’s ability, why does it detract from Lemieux’s?

 

[Regal]

40.7%


The Oilers PP has been historically great the past few seasons. Careerwise, he's sitting around 33%

Not that I think players should be punished for being good on the PP. It's a part of the game. I mean, even Gretzky scored 31% of his points on the PP.

Sure, but it’s within that great PP that McDavid has scored more which is what’s led to the Lemieux comparison here. I’m not criticizing McDavid, I’m suggesting using PP points percentage is silly when talking about players who are scoring this much. Both Lemieux and McDavid were/are great ES and PP scorers. While I think it’s important to put PP time/scoring in context when comparing most players in general, particularly those who aren’t the best of the best (see RNH), it doesn’t make sense when the PP player is the reason for his team being elite like McDavid and Lemieux, and/or if he’s also elite at ES, also like McDavid and Lemieux.

Lemieux’s Pens were also regularly a great PP team and tended to get a lot of PP opportunities, which is sometimes used as a negative against his high totals, but is often forgotten as part of the reason he would typically have a high percentage of points on the PP, since there’s fewer ES minutes to go around when teams are spending lots of time on special teams.

Alternatively, Gretzky’s Oilers were usually one of the least penalized teams, mostly because of the refs’ game management, which means he spent less time on special teams. He wasn’t a worse PP player than Lemieux, but scored less than Lemieux there due to fewer opportunities. But this also means the percentage of his PP points was lower, and it would have been higher simply had the Oilers gotten more calls, even though he wouldn’t have changed as a player.

 

[Calderon]

Should we regard a six point California tour as barely satisfactory? A lot of one point games lately and "only" ten points in the last seven games. Outstanding production — unless you're aiming at something that's not been done in 25+ years.

 

[Mr Buckles]

Someone posted statistics earlier this week that showed a broken-down Mario Lemieux, at 35 and after 4 years retirement, was as statistically dominant as anyone in the league.

During the middle of the dead-puck era.

 

[Duder54]

View attachment 635025

Quoted from the article:

"In his abbreviated comeback season of 2000-01:

• Lemieux led the NHL in goals-per-game (0.81) while Pavel Bure, the league’s leading goal-scorer that season (59), was second (0.72).

• Lemieux led the NHL in assists-per-game (0.95) while Adam Oates and his own teammate Jaromir Jagr tied for second (0.85).

• Lemieux led the NHL in points-per-game (1.77) while Jagr finished second (1.49).

Had Lemieux played in all 82 games that season, he would have been on pace for 144 points. The person who ended up winning the scoring race that season was Jagr, who finished with 121 points. Joe Sakic finished second to Jagr with 118 points, while no one else hit the 100-point plateau...

...this is a 35-year-old who missed three years of hockey, had two back surgeries, and went through radiation treatment for Hodgkin’s disease."

 

[BallardEra]

Why are people talking about Lemieux in a topic asking if McDavid can hit 150 points this season?

 

[Sasha Orlov]

Should we regard a six point California tour as barely satisfactory? A lot of one point games lately and "only" ten points in the last seven games. Outstanding production — unless you're aiming at something that's not been done in 25+ years.

He is pacing for 152pts still lol

 

[JackSlater]

Interesting to see where he ends up. Sounds like Kane is returning soon and McDavid tends to close out seasons very strongly so I would not be surprised to see his scoring at even strength pick up soon. Much more enjoyable than his scoring is that he looks as good as the numbers. You can reliably tune into an Edmonton game and see flashes of greatness from McDavid sprinkled throughout the game.

 

[MCR74]

No, it would be Skinner.

So the league's most expensive backup will be watching from the bench?

 

[Dempsey]

So the league's most expensive backup will be watching from the bench?

Bitter about Hyman so drawing attention to Campbell. We get it.

 

[Frosty415]

The game has not evolved nearly as much as you think it has.

Someone posted statistics earlier this week that showed a broken-down Mario Lemieux, at 35 and after 4 years retirement, was as statistically dominant as anyone in the league.

During the middle of the dead-puck era.

This season, 2002, had the likes of Nicklas Lidstrom in his absolute prime and several other historically great players (Pronger, Niedermayer, Chara, etc.)

Lidstrom was dominating opponents as a 40 year old in 2012, way past his prime, against legends such as Crosby, Ovechkin, and Malkin.

All players in their mid-20s, in their primes, and close/equal to McDavid.

You even mentioned one of them (Ovechkin) in your post, so I assume you are saying that he is one of these "evolutionary talents" that is supposedly "way ahead" of players from the 1980s.

If Ovechkin is so ahead of 1980s players (and by extension, McDavid too), then why did Ovechkin as a 20 year old get outplayed by a 34 year old Jagr in 2006? Ovechkin was closer to his prime then compared to Jagr.

And Lemieux outside of prime always outplayed a prime Jagr.

I may have been jumping around in this post.

My general point is that a 2022 player hasn't separated themselves from the 80s-90s player nearly as much as people think.

Jagr in his early 40s earned Hart Trophy votes FFS. How is that possible if older players are so inferior to current players?

And remember that Jagr in his prime wasn't as good as Lemieux past his prime.

There is no doubt in my mind that Lemieux would beat McDavid in a scoring race.

The insecurity, yikes.

Lemieux is retired bud, Connor is the best player since him and its not even close, time to let go.

Why are people talking about Lemieux in a topic asking if McDavid can hit 150 points this season?

They're so insecure they can't let go, like it's ok that there's another player as good as Mario, it's taking nothing away from Mario... his legacy is still there.

It's embarrassing.