Speculation: Mcdavid and Eichel Contracts

[Seras]

McDavid - 5 year 50 million contract - He would be smart to become a UFA as soon as legally possible.

This is what he should do. The only reason not to would be if his agent doesn't think the cap will raise by the end of a 5 year deal.

 

[tempest2i]

What makes you think a team wouldn't offer sheet him 4-5 years at max?

1. Offer Sheets are extremely rare.
2. It's very unlikely that Edmonton will bungle this up so badly that Connor makes it into the free agency period unsigned.

 

[scan15*]

$14 million for McDavid

$7 - 9 million for Eichel.

 

[93LEAFS]

My guess is McDavid signs an 8 year deal worthy between 80-88 million.

Eichel really depends on what he does this year, my guess is either 6 at 6.5 or 8 at 7.5.

As much as that Leafs lampshade gave me hope McDavid will leave Edmonton for his natural destination, there is really no way I don't see him getting a blank check this off-season and signing for 8 years.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

McDavid will get an 8 year/77.6 million dollar contract (9.7 avg.)

probably making close to 15 million in his UFA years

 

[Not Sure]

1. Offer Sheets are extremely rare.
2. It's very unlikely that Edmonton will bungle this up so badly that Connor makes it into the free agency period unsigned.

Who said Edmonton needs to bungle anything. Perhaps McDavids agent ends up wanting a shorter deal to hit free agency sooner and Edmonton wants to lock him in for 8, even offering a max contract hoping for cheap years later. Look at LeBron, he could have a max deal with as much term as he wants but he signs 1 year option deals to take advantage of a rising salary cap. Hockey is much more physical and the chances of injury are the only reason we don't see more top players taking short deals, but eventually someone will do it imo.

 

[McPhatty00]

I think Buffalo should be thankful they DIDN'T get McDavid. Unless he's a total team player, he could tank the team cap.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Who said Edmonton needs to bungle anything. Perhaps McDavids agent ends up wanting a shorter deal to hit free agency sooner and Edmonton wants to lock him in for 8, even offering a max contract hoping for cheap years later. Look at LeBron, he could have a max deal with as much term as he wants but he signs 1 year option deals to take advantage of a rising salary cap. Hockey is much more physical and the chances of injury are the only reason we don't see more top players taking short deals, but eventually someone will do it imo.

seems like wishful thinking

this has never happened before and I doubt Connor wants to set the precedent...the guy is the ultimate team player

 

[tempest2i]

Who said Edmonton needs to bungle anything. Perhaps McDavids agent ends up wanting a shorter deal to hit free agency sooner and Edmonton wants to lock him in for 8, even offering a max contract hoping for cheap years later. Look at LeBron, he could have a max deal with as much term as he wants but he signs 1 year option deals to take advantage of a rising salary cap. Hockey is much more physical and the chances of injury are the only reason we don't see more top players taking short deals, but eventually someone will do it imo.

What has Connor (or Bobby Orr, his agent) ever done that gives you the impression that he that values money more than anything else in the world?

 

[93LEAFS]

What has Connor (or Bobby Orr, his agent) ever done that gives you the impression that he that values money more than anything else in the world?

I don't want to get into this too much, but there are a bunch of dynamics at play when it comes to a contract like McDavid's. He absolutely will be getting pressure from the Union and fellow players to get as much as he possibly can. This is even more true with Fehr now running the union. While it isn't the same as MLB, where there is no cap, most unions put pressure on their top guys to raise the level of deals. McDavid raising the benchmark for guys coming off ELC's makes for easier negotiations for other players to get significant reasons. If Matthews can become a superstar, the Leafs will also deal with these issues in 20 Months.

 

[tempest2i]

I don't want to get into this too much, but there are a bunch of dynamics at play when it comes to a contract like McDavid's. He absolutely will be getting pressure from the Union and fellow players to get as much as he possibly can. This is even more true with Fehr now running the union. While it isn't the same as MLB, where there is no cap, most unions put pressure on their top guys to raise the level of deals. McDavid raising the benchmark for guys coming off ELC's makes for easier negotiations for other players to get significant reasons. If Matthews can become a superstar, the Leafs will also deal with these issues in 20 Months.

You think the NHLPA is going to pressure McDavid and Orr to drive a hard bargain with the Oilers?

That seems far-fetched.

 

[Skobel24]

He'll sign around 9 million per. Once he eventually reaches UFA, he'll cash in for 10+

 

[93LEAFS]

You think the NHLPA is going to pressure McDavid and Orr to drive a hard bargain with the Oilers?

That seems far-fetched.

They are going to pressure him to get the biggest possible deal. If you don't think this, you aren't familiar with Donald Fehr and how unions work in general in sports. McDavid's deal is a chance to set a new benchmark for the highest paid player, there is absolutely pressure from fellow agents, players and unions to maximize his earnings. This was post-Fehr, but a well-known tactic. Here is LaRussa talking about it in regards to Albert Pujols.

http://www.tampabay.com/sports/la-russa-claims-union-is-pressuring-pujols/1151878

lex Rodriguez's $275 million, 10-year deal with the Yankees is baseball's current high.

"I know what he's going through with the union and to some extent his representatives because his representatives are getting beat up by the union," La Russa said. "Set the bar, set the bar. You've got to deal with it. It's not the way it should be."

 

[Kovaz]

McDavid's RFA period should be interesting because he's one of the very few players who is likely worth the cost in draft picks to acquire him. That deterrent is the biggest reason why offer sheets are so rare - they're only worth it if a player's team is lowballing him. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see a team throw a $13M or $14M offer sheet at him. Plus, since we're already in the top bracket, there's no reason not to offer 7 years.

 

[93LEAFS]

McDavid's RFA period should be interesting because he's one of the very few players who is likely worth the cost in draft picks to acquire him. That deterrent is the biggest reason why offer sheets are so rare - they're only worth it if a player's team is lowballing him. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see a team throw a $13M or $14M offer sheet at him. Plus, since we're already in the top bracket, there's no reason not to offer 7 years.

I think if you are going to offer-sheet McDavid, the only way to make the Oilers not consider matching, is to give him a deal that takes him right to UFA, and doesn't buyout any UFA deals. Any deal that buys out some UFA years they will have to match.

 

[Freudian]

Neither of them have to sign next summer. No risk waiting another year.

 

[Skobel24]

I think if you are going to offer-sheet McDavid, the only way to make the Oilers not consider matching, is to give him a deal that takes him right to UFA, and doesn't buyout any UFA deals. Any deal that buys out some UFA years they will have to match.

Even then, I'd think the Oilers match. You match that offer, and just do everything you can to re-sign him.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

It's all a mute point really... the Oilers would never lose McDavid to an offer sheet.

If you think it is a mute point, you aren't even reading my posts, because the point has nothing to do with whether the Oilers could lose McDavid to an offer sheet. It has to do with how an offer sheet being a realistic possibility for McDavid could influence how much the Oilers have to pay him post ELC more than it would with any other player.

1. Offer Sheets are extremely rare.
2. It's very unlikely that Edmonton will bungle this up so badly that Connor makes it into the free agency period unsigned.

1.Offer sheets are rare partially because compensation is geared way against them being worth doing. 4 first rounders for McDavid is a pretty easy choice to make.
2.This is not relevant to what I was responding to. I was responding to someone saying no team is going to give up 4 picks if given the opportunity to offer sheet McDavid.

 

[snipes]

If you think it is a mute point, you aren't even reading my posts, because the point has nothing to do with whether the Oilers could lose McDavid to an offer sheet. It has to do with how an offer sheet being a realistic possibility for McDavid could influence how much the Oilers have to pay him post ELC more than it would with any other player.

No team will even get that opportunity. He'll be locked up before.

As for being irrelevant, the Oilers are near the top 1/3rd for Franchise valuations and revenue generation. As well HFOil is one of 7 teams that have 1,000,0000+ posts in their sub forum. Not sure how we're irrelevant?

 

[snipes]

no team will even get that opportunity. He'll be locked up before.

As for being irrelevant, the oilers are near the top 1/3rd for franchise valuations and revenue generation. As well hfoil is one of 7 teams that have 1,000,0000+ posts in their sub forum. Not sure how we're irrelevant?

*1,000,000+

 

[tempest2i]

They are going to pressure him to get the biggest possible deal. If you don't think this, you aren't familiar with Donald Fehr and how unions work in general in sports. McDavid's deal is a chance to set a new benchmark for the highest paid player, there is absolutely pressure from fellow agents, players and unions to maximize his earnings. This was post-Fehr, but a well-known tactic. Here is LaRussa talking about it in regards to Albert Pujols.

http://www.tampabay.com/sports/la-russa-claims-union-is-pressuring-pujols/1151878

Can you explain to me how Albert Pujol's contract, which was signed when he was an unrestricted free agent, 10 years into his professional career (at the time he was a 2 time world series champion with 3 MVP's, 2 gold gloves, 6 silver sluggers, and enough other accolades to fill up my entire screen), playing in a league which does not have a hard salary cap, should be used as a comparable for Connor McDavid's second contract, which will be signed two years into his professional career, while he is a restricted free agent, playing in a league with a hard salary cap?

 

[danielpalfredsson]

No team will even get that opportunity. He'll be locked up before.

As for being irrelevant, the Oilers are near the top 1/3rd for Franchise valuations and revenue generation. As well HFOil is one of 7 teams that have 1,000,0000+ posts in their sub forum. Not sure how we're irrelevant?

jeez......It is like nobody reads posts around here.

I DO NOT THINK MCDAVID WILL SIGN AN OFFER SHEET.

If EDM offers him below what he is worth the prospect of McDavid being one of the few players who can attract big time offer sheets will allow him to negotiate for more. This makes an offer sheet relevant even if it never comes to that.

McDavid will get an 8 year/77.6 million dollar contract (9.7 avg.)

probably making close to 15 million in his UFA years

If EDM signs him to 8x9.7M that will be the most team friendly contract signed post 2012 lockout. That is incredible wishful thinking.

 

[93LEAFS]

Can you explain to me how Albert Pujol's contract, which was signed when he was an unrestricted free agent, 10 years into his professional career (at the time he was a 2 time world series champion with 3 MVP's, 2 gold gloves, 6 silver sluggers, and enough other accolades to fill up my entire screen), playing in a league which does not have a hard salary cap, should be used as a comparable for Connor McDavid's second contract, which will be signed two years into his professional career, while he is a restricted free agent, playing in a league with a hard salary cap?

its a fairly simple concept, and a known phenomenon. Player unions traditionally put pressure on influential players and agents to sign massive deals that raise the overall benchmarks around the league. Similar to how Ekblad's current deal has been used to argue that Lindholm, Risto and Trouba are worth more than they are or were getting offered. These types of deals overall help players in arbitration dealings and in future RFA dealings. If McDavid is making 11 million a year, guys like Matthews or Eichel can say, while I may not be worth 11 million a year, I am probably worth 9. Benchmark deals are believed to raise the salary of other high-end players. And while the League is a hard cap, not all teams spend to the cap, so it raises what these non-cap teams have to pay to keep premier players. If you don't think the union puts pressure on players to sign benchmark deals, you don't know how that side of the league really works.

 

[Roof Daddy]

They are going to pressure him to get the biggest possible deal. If you don't think this, you aren't familiar with Donald Fehr and how unions work in general in sports. McDavid's deal is a chance to set a new benchmark for the highest paid player, there is absolutely pressure from fellow agents, players and unions to maximize his earnings. This was post-Fehr, but a well-known tactic. Here is LaRussa talking about it in regards to Albert Pujols.

http://www.tampabay.com/sports/la-russa-claims-union-is-pressuring-pujols/1151878

Baseball operates much differently though. I get your point that Fehr's background resides there, but it doesn't change the fact that the money/TV contracts/gate revenues are all very different, not to mention the culture of the athletes (sorry, but there are way more divas in baseball - I'm looking at you Jose "I want 6 years, 150 mil despite my declining performance" Bautista).

Crosby took 8.7 per over 12 years, basically conceding any chance to ever be a UFA. Was there different circumstances? Sure, his concussion issue was still a bit worrisome, and the contract structure was different because there weren't limitations to term yet. The cap was close to the same (69 mil when it kicked in, not much different from current figures). But he was also a cup winner and, despite the concussion, still the best player in the world (at worst, top 3).

I'm shocked that so many people consider the 8 year, 9.7 per suggestion to be some slap in the face. McDavid would still have the potential to be a UFA at age 29, he would only give up 4
UFA years, and he'd still be in the top 5 salaries in the game directly out of his ELC. It is very fair for both parties. This is aside from the fact his personality really suggests that he would be the type to leave a bit on the table if it can make the team better (see his friends Stamkos and Tavares).

If he tears the league a new one and finishes 30 points ahead of everyone, maybe we can revisit these max contract suggestions, but to be paid top 5 in the league coming out of your ELC (which 9.7 would be) is well within reason for McDavid.

 

[carter333167]

It's pretty much up to McDavid...he knows he'll get a blank check so he will need to decide how much to leave on the table for the team to fill in good linemates for a run at the SC.

My guess is he settles for around 8x$9million. Obviously, he could get more, but will he really demand more...not sure.