Confirmed with Link: Mattias Samuelsson Signs 7 year extension ($4.29M AAV)

[TehDoak]

So you'd rather do the Botterill method of bridging guys like Reinhart & McCabe and getting them close to UFA? Then we can trade them / they walk because they want too much money?

Imagine if we had Reinhart at a 5.75M cap hit and McCabe at a 3M cap hit long term right now. Those would be some steals. Kind of like what Vegas did with Tuch too. That worked out pretty good didn't it?

McCabe has been terrible since he signed in Chicago. We dodged a huge bullet not giving him a long term contract. I wouldn't take him at 1M.

 

[dasaybz]

If we treated Samson the same way Samuelsson, then he'd still be here. Shows you the difference in the brain power of our front office.

 

[joshjull]

I have him on Ignore so I can't see his posts anymore but I can still tell from the responses that he hasn't changed.

Same

 

[Dingo44]

How was this contract negotiated? Do you think the agent just threw a ridiculous number against the wall and Adams was just like “yeah, let’s do it!” Because I just can’t wrap my head around how the Sabres aren’t getting him for AT LEAST a million less per year if they are trying.

Seven year term. More years cost more dollars.

 

[Irie]

For them to buy it out within the window, it'd have to be a Skinner level bad deal first two years on the contract. After that he's over 25 and its a typical NHL buyout.

What's funny is, I do really like Samuelsson. I just see nothing but risk here.

Is it the end of the world he ends up being a bottom pairing NHL d-man making 4.2 M per? No.

The issue is if he ends up being a borderline NHL d-man at 4.2 and we want to spend near the cap later.

But liking the player and liking the upside doesn't change the fact this is a dumb deal.

What's funny is, I do really like Samuelsson. I just see nothing but risk here.

Is it the end of the world he ends up being a bottom pairing NHL d-man making 4.2 M per? No.

The issue is if he ends up being a borderline NHL d-man at 4.2 and we want to spend near the cap later.

But liking the player and liking the upside doesn't change the fact this is a dumb deal.

Samuelsson is a positional defenseman that reads the defensive play better than most defensemen currently in the league, and he is only 22.

Risk comes in signing guys based off of one year of point production. The Tage contract is a lot more risky than this.

A player like Samuelsson who can read the defensive ice as well as he does and has his size and physicality is a rare breed. If you get a chance to lock him up for 7 years at 4.29 for the full of his prime, you do it every time.

The fact that he has some untapped offense to his game is just icing on the cake here.

 

[Jim Bob]

How was this contract negotiated? Do you think the agent just threw a ridiculous number against the wall and Adams was just like “yeah, let’s do it!” Because I just can’t wrap my head around how the Sabres aren’t getting him for AT LEAST a million less per year if they are trying.

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

Samuelsson is getting paid like these other defensive D.

 

[BFLO]

Can they combine the two? Cobra Antidote?

Anti-Venom

 

[stokes84]

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

Samuelsson is getting paid like these other defensive D.

These should not be comps for a guy that has barely played any NHL hockey

 

[VaporTrail]

Nope. He's UFA after the deal. Eats up a couple of UFA years too. And yes, this kicks in next season....once his ELC expires.

Gotcha thanks

 

[Beerz]

I feel nervous about the Tage contract..

This one I feel pretty damn confident.

 

[joshjull]

I like it. Finally being a proactive, forward-thinking organization. Seems they understand why they lost Sam and how much money they're going to cost themselves by waiting on Dahlin's big contract.

There's always risk in giving these early extensions, but there's also a bigger reward. They trust their evaluators and the coaches they have in the fold. I'd love to see them go full Atlanta Braves and lock in as many of the long-term guys as they can sooner than later.

What does the current front office have to do with Sam? Adams didn’t start building it until after Krueger was fired. Which was well after the decisions on Sam were made.

I‘m still waiting for the evidence that Dahlin wanted to sign a max contract that offseason and it was the Sabres that didn’t want to. Its possible that was the case. But Dahlin's camp had a say in the matter.

 

[BloFan4Life]

How much does a guy who plays Samuelsson's style really get?

Pelech is signed for like 5.75, Cernak 5.2.

So maybe they saved about a million a year if he reaches those guys potential. I just don't know if risking 30 million to potentially save 7 million is worth it.

 

[Fezzy126]

What does the current front office have to do with Sam? Adams didn’t start building it until after Krueger was fired. Which was well after the decisions on Sam were made.

I‘m still waiting for the evidence that Dahlin wanted to sign a max contract that offseason and it was the Sabres that didn’t want to. Its possible that was the case. But Dahlin's camp had a say in the matter.

You'll be waiting for a while, the reports hinted that the Sabres wanted term:



Which leads us to reasonably assume that Dahlin is betting on himself now that he's
1) No longer being sabotaged by Kruger, and
2) Very cognizant that the cap is about to rise with Covid cap freeze coming to an end and the new tv deals pushing revenue to the player pool

I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but all reasonable signs pointed to Dahlin forcing a bridge deal, with Adams then pivoting to this bit of GM speak:



Dahlin is gonna cash in after the bridge is over and Sabres will be perfectly willing to pay it.

 

[BFLO]

I feel nervous about the Tage contract..

This one I feel pretty damn confident.

I’m in the same boat.

Love the Samuelsson contract.

With Tage I don’t think the discount we got was significant enough to outweigh the risk. I would have preferred to wait a season with Tage to see if he can repeat his performance. Even if we ended up paying him a little more I think it would have been worth it. Like if he repeats we sign him to $8-8.5x8 years with no regrets. If he’s <30 goals this season could have signed him to less term in the $5-$6aav range

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

How much does a guy who plays Samuelsson's style really get?

Pelech is signed for like 5.75, Cernak 5.2.

So maybe they saved about a million a year if he reaches those guys potential. I just don't know if risking 30 million to potentially save 7 million is worth it.

Lindholm got 6.5M. He's more known for playing defense than providing offense, and he hasn't even been that good the past few years.

 

[BloFan4Life]

Lindholm got 6.5M. He's more known for playing defense than providing offense, and he hasn't even been that good the past few years.

Didn't he have multiple yeas with double digit goals?

 

[Fjordy]

I don't understand some people's dissatisfaction. Great contract and what difference does it make that he played 54 games in the NHL, what if he suddenly turns into Will Butcher in his 55th game? Or in game 70? We all know who Samuelsson is and what style he plays. It happens that players get paid that much, even if they have not played 100 games in the NHL, this is a profitable investment for the future.

Maybe similar type players:

Brandon Carlo - 4,1M x 6Y

Erik Cernak - 5,2M x 8Y

John Marino - 4,4M x 6Y

Marcus Pettersson - 4M x 5Y

Esa Lindell - 5,8M x 6Y

Jamie Oleksiak - 4,6 x 5Y

Adam Pelech - 5,7M x 8Y

Jonas Brodin - 6M x 7Y

Connor Murphy 4,4M x 4Y

 

[old kummelweck]

If we treated Samson the same way Samuelsson, then he'd still be here. Shows you the difference in the brain power of our front office.

Different era, different vibe. Only thing certain around that roster was uncertainty.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Oh I love this. This kid is going to be logging top pairing/#1 PK minutes. This contract is going to be a bargain, if not a steal.

 

[KiwiGriff]

It’s a bold play going long term with little established NHL play but … What’s more likely to happen?

1. A shutdown defenseman stops being able to defend.
2. A point scoring player stops scoring points.

I think the risk is low on this. In all likelihood we get what we have seen for a long time, and it’s more likely he gets better than worse.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

We'll go through the 3 logical ways this could go. Best to worst:

1. Sammy becomes Dahlin's partner for the next decade, Dahlin is free to roam and they thrive together. Worth so far beyond what he's making.
2. Sammy becomes a solid Top 4 guy. With the cap shooting up that's a more than fair deal for him.
3. Sammy bombs out and is a brutal bottom pairing guy. Ok great, we buy him out for on the cheap because he will be under 26.

Any way you slice it I highly doubt shit hits the fan on this deal, we have a way bigger problem than his contract being bad if we have to buy him out. We'd be losing a major piece of our future if he stops developing or plummets.

Nice analysis.

As I said on the mains, like all long-term contracts for young, not fully established players, this is definitely a calculated risk. I think this contract will be deemed a bargain even sooner than we hope.

 

[Jim Bob]

These should not be comps for a guy that has barely played any NHL hockey

Andersson had around 100 games played when he signed that deal.

Feel free to tout the wisdom of bridge deals. But, I like locking up promising young guys to deals that have a very good chance at being values for the team before too long.

 

[Ace]

I don't understand some people's dissatisfaction. Great contract and what difference does it make that he played 54 games in the NHL, what if he suddenly turns into Will Butcher in his 55th game? Or in game 70? We all know who Samuelsson is and what style he plays. It happens that players get paid that much, even if they have not played 100 games in the NHL, this is a profitable investment for the future.

Have you seen the people?

the title could be Samuelsson pays club a million per year and the same three people will find a reason it’s the worst thing in the world.

 

[Zman5778]

How much does a guy who plays Samuelsson's style really get?

Pelech is signed for like 5.75, Cernak 5.2.

So maybe they saved about a million a year if he reaches those guys potential. I just don't know if risking 30 million to potentially save 7 million is worth it.

Keep in mind that the cap is going up in a big way after next year. Bridging Sammy now means he'd cash in on the rising cap. So while his deal is the same as guys like them, we're saving more than just 7 million (which assumes a stagnant cap).

 

[NotABadPeriod]

Nope. He's UFA after the deal. Eats up a couple of UFA years too. And yes, this kicks in next season....once his ELC expires.

To me, this is why I would have preferred it to be closer to 4 or slightly below, because it only buys a couple UFA years.

But that's the difference between a good deal and a great one.

When this team does make the playoffs, Samuelsson is going to be the star. Teams are going to be "oh, they have Dahlin and Power as lefties, maybe they'll be willing to give up Samuelsson"...and we'd be pretty united in saying "no".