Confirmed with Link: Mattias Samuelsson Signs 7 year extension ($4.29M AAV)

[old kummelweck]

Like it or not, the Sabres have decided the can not compete if the follow convention. That means typical NHL playbooks around when you sign players and for how long are out the window. They feel they can evaluate their talent early, and are comfortable locking them up long-term. They also have a vision for the roster core, and Samuelsson fits right into the profile they want in the top 4, and REALLY like his personality fit in the locker room.

 

[brian_griffin]

For them to buy it out within the window, it'd have to be a Skinner level bad deal first two years on the contract. After that he's over 25 and its a typical NHL buyout.

What's funny is, I do really like Samuelsson. I just see nothing but risk here.

Is it the end of the world he ends up being a bottom pairing NHL d-man making 4.2 M per? No.

The issue is if he ends up being a borderline NHL d-man at 4.2 and we want to spend near the cap later.

But liking the player and liking the upside doesn't change the fact this is a dumb deal.

We don't have enough game tape to show he's a top 4 NHL d-man. We have an extra season before the contract starts in which he can get injured. The rushing to sign him to a 7 year deal is what is mystifying. Barring him finding some offensive gear he hasn't had at any level of hockey, he's isn't going to get some massive deal off his ELC. This isn't a franchise center that you have to keep happy.

it's the same issue with the tage thompson contract. It's taking on risk and term when you don't have to.

IMHO, there are two cases where you should extend before the contract is over:

Pending UFA you want to keep long term. That should be sorted the offseason before the avoid drama and distraction. Get it done or move them along.

Franchise level RFA. That is a core building block, a elite level d-man, a franchise level NHL center.

With Thompson, you could make the arguement he's a core piece at least even though I think you'd like to see him repeat that production before going long term. There is risk there.

But to give a 7 year deal to a guy with less than 60 NHL games under their belt is ramping up the risk factor for minimal long term gain.

Serious question - what bothers you more?
1) Demonstrating the "long play": committing dollars / term to in-house players with minimal resume but way more upside opportunity than downside risk, who are by all accounts viewed as cornerstones of the core talent and revamped culture?
2) Rejecting the "quick fix": not committing abundantly available cap dollars the past 2 years to UFA mercenaries at center and goal, etc., who haven't personally been through the emotional lift of jettisoning Krueger, Eichel, etc. after enduring the emotional-gulag-like locker room/travel/etc. in the pre-Granato era?

 

[jfc64]

Left side:

Dahlin
Power
Samuelsson

There are two s's in the last name. Just like Scarlett Johansson. Swedish citizen of honor.

 

[Chainshot]

A really good AHL player.

Did you make a wrong turn when looking for the Avs board?

The post post edit is interesting. Wrong board?

 

[Zman5778]

Is it the end of the world he ends up being a bottom pairing NHL d-man making 4.2 M per? No.

Yet you're writing dissertation-length posts on how bad this deal is......when you say yourself that it's not the end of the world if the worst case happens.

 

[Zman5778]

As an aside:

I truly hope that this deal shows that the Pegulas will, in fact, pay when the time is right. That we're not a cap floor team in perpetuity.

 

[buffswords]

This is a fantastic signing. I have absolutely zero problem being the Atlanta Braves of the NHL. This and the Tage deal show a high level of trust in the talent evaluation/analytics depts, the coaching staff to continue developing young players, and the players themselves. That organizational trust is something all teams need if they want to be good for a long time.

Just look at this that came out today on the Braves

 

[Sabreality]

Left side:

Dahlin
Power
Samuelsson

There are two s's in the last name. Just like Scarlett Johansson. Swedish citizen of honor.

Except Dahlin isn't on the left side, but thanks for stopping by.

 

[MOGlLNY]

Yet you're writing dissertation-length posts on how bad this deal is......when you say yourself that it's not the end of the world if the worst case happens.

I don't like ignoring people on here because having an echo chamber of only people who only agree with you is beyond pointless. But feels like he comes on here to play the contrarian with bad faith arguments.

 

[Zman5778]

I don't like ignoring people on here because having an echo chamber of only people who only agree with you is beyond pointless. But feels like he comes on here to play the contrarian with bad faith arguments.

I mean......I do get it. We've been pitifully awful for 10/11 years now. Having hope and trusting the organization is NOT an easy thing to do.

 

[Dingo44]

I don't like ignoring people on here because having an echo chamber of only people who only agree with you is beyond pointless. But feels like he comes on here to play the contrarian with bad faith arguments.

I have him on Ignore so I can't see his posts anymore but I can still tell from the responses that he hasn't changed.

 

[Irie]

Best positional defenseman on the team.

Big and physical and plays just as well on either side.

Not sure how anyone who watched him play the past season and a half isn't thrilled with this signing.

 

[VaporTrail]

Wait, would he still be a RFA after this deal ? And maybe I missed it, does this kick in after his Entry level deal ??

 

[Zman5778]

Wait, would he still be a RFA after this deal ? And maybe I missed it, does this kick in after his Entry level deal ??

Nope. He's UFA after the deal. Eats up a couple of UFA years too. And yes, this kicks in next season....once his ELC expires.

 

[MOGlLNY]

I mean......I do get it. We've been pitifully awful for 10/11 years now. Having hope and trusting the organization is NOT an easy thing to do.

Sabres are not and should not function like they expect to be the same incompetent team of bad coaching and development. They're betting on their new office and it has shown reason to be mostly functional and is capable of doing the job.

We made the mistake of not giving our last superstar any support, we just committed long term to building around someone who can help our potential superstars thrive for a long time. Nothing to be negative about here.

 

[Sabre Dance]

I’ve always been a fan of these types of contracts. I prefer this deal over the Tage deal. I’m probably in the minority.

 

[Zman5778]

I’ve always been a fan of these types of contracts. I prefer this deal over the Tage deal. I’m probably in the minority.

I vastly prefer this deal over the Tage deal.

Sammy has come in from day 1 and looked like he belongs. I am terrified that Tage was a contract-year outlier.

All the talk of risk in this thread: Tage's contract is orders of magnitude more risky than Antidote's is.

 

[Chainshot]

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

You. Don't. Sign. Players. To. Long. Term. Deals. After. One. good. NHL. Season.

I like Samuelsson as much as anyone. This is completely and totally unecessary.

Between this and Thompson, Adams is just gambling away cap space and hoping these are good deals in 3 years when he has no reason to. Just unforced errors.

Go look at Toronto with Zaitsev. Or Ottawa with Chabot. You don't go into these long term deals lightly.

So you'd rather do the Botterill method of bridging guys like Reinhart & McCabe and getting them close to UFA? Then we can trade them / they walk because they want too much money?

Imagine if we had Reinhart at a 5.75M cap hit and McCabe at a 3M cap hit long term right now. Those would be some steals. Kind of like what Vegas did with Tuch too. That worked out pretty good didn't it?

 

[HaNotsri]

Is it all Samuelsson brings - we're talking about a guy who has outpaced some dude named Brian Campbell in AHL scoring rates and yet still gets referenced as "just" a meathead. Is a good partner unlocking Dahlin's offensive game not worth 2nd pairing money? It seems the team thinks so.

Anyone complaining didn't watch the games towards the end of the year. Samuelsson had some spectacular plays and is by no means a defense only guy. Could see him score 20-30 points while being elite defensively.
It's Ristolainen upgraded with a brain.

 

[jfc64]

Did you make a wrong turn when looking for the Avs board?

The post post edit is interesting. Wrong board?

Scarlett showed up in "Lucy" at that moment. She is not in the AHL. Lucy.

 

[Chainshot]

Scarlett showed up in "Lucy" at that moment. She is not in the AHL.

Are you always this nonsensical?

Curious at your initial claim that you then quickly edited.

 

[Jim Bob]

As an aside:

I truly hope that this deal shows that the Pegulas will, in fact, pay when the time is right. That we're not a cap floor team in perpetuity.

If the Thompson deal did not prove this...

 

[stokes84]

How was this contract negotiated? Do you think the agent just threw a ridiculous number against the wall and Adams was just like “yeah, let’s do it!” Because I just can’t wrap my head around how the Sabres aren’t getting him for AT LEAST a million less per year if they are trying.

 

[jfc64]

Except Dahlin isn't on the left side, but thanks for stopping by.

Thank you. Hockey brother.