Confirmed with Link: Mattias Samuelsson Signs 7 year extension ($4.29M AAV)

[Ralonzo]

If he bombs out, they won't need to buy him out. Some GM that overvalues physical play will trade for him.

I'm getting a raging clue.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Didn't he have multiple yeas with double digit goals?

Yea in 15-16 and 17-18. He hasn't had more than 6 in any other season since, and he also hasn't broken 30 points since 17-18. 6.5M is a lot to pay a guy who had 10 or more goals twice with the most recent being 4 years ago.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

The poke check on Karlsson in the Vegas game really sold me on Samuelsson. This sums up Sammy's game in a nutshell.

Cherry-picked moments, of course.

But how many other 6'4", 230 lb, 22 year-old defenders could have a similar highlight reel 54 games into his career, most against the opponent's top line?

 

[Grouch]

If he can prove to be a legit 4C this year 2.8 AAV is not outlandish.

Soooo.Mitts was extended 3 x $2.5 to be 3C. (maybe 2C) and a 4C is worth $2.8m for 4 years?????

If your 4C is more than $2-2.25m you are doing it wrong. And more than likely $1.5-$1.8 is more appropriate.

 

[Bendium]

WOW! Got home and saw this. Took the time to read all the pro's and cons on the last 8 pages. One word.

OUTSTANDING!

Before last year I had not seen much of Samuelsson yet. Then he came in mid-season after injury. I remember watching a game and suddenly going, "Whoa.....what was that?" I started watching him every shift, and after about ten games.... I took my nearly empty long-term Sabres lineup building sheet....and I wrote his name into my defense in PEN!

Do you want to go to the playoffs? Do you want to WIN in the playoff's? Then you better have some people like Samualsson. He fills some essential gaps we have had years. Everyone talks about points and power play. On this team right now, who do you have penciled into your playoff caliber PENALTY KILL. We got Cobra, the rest have yet to reveal themselves.

I could write a page of the stuff I saw him do last year that makes me think this contract is a lock to be a steal, but just watch the games, and watch Sammy. You will see it.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

For context, 73 d-men currently have an AAV of $4.3M+.

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

Soooo.Mitts was extended 3 x $2.5 to be 3C. (maybe 2C) and a 4C is worth $2.8m for 4 years?????

If your 4C is more than $2-2.25m you are doing it wrong. And more than likely $1.5-$1.8 is more appropriate.

We are not too far away from seeing 4th liners getting that contract, especially with the cap expected to get up to north of $90mil in the next 4-5 years.. And if Adams has show us anything this offseason, its that he wants to get contracts on the books ahead of the curve.

Is Asplund worth that right now? Absolutely not

But.....If he can prove to be a solid 4C who kills penalties and is relied on to win big draws late in the game, it's not outlandish to think he can be worth that but he needs to prove it.

 

[Buffalo Norsemen]

Analyzing the Sabres' 7-year 'investment' in defenseman Mattias Samuelsson

Samuelsson, 22, signed a seven-year, $30 million contract extension Wednesday with only 54 NHL games on his résumé.

buffalonews.com

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

For context, 73 d-men currently have an AAV of $4.3M+.

That number should increase next offseason I'm guessing as well.

 

[dire wolf]

The poke check on Karlsson in the Vegas game really sold me on Samuelsson. This sums up Sammy's game in a nutshell.

People who are not familiar with Samuelsson should watch that whole reel. It shows off how he uses his mobility and long reach to break up plays consistently. He's like a more physical Henrik Tallinder. It's pretty impressive for such a young defenseman with so little NHL experience.

 

[EichHart]

Less worried about this than Tage contract. Many nights last year I felt like he was our best dman.

 

[markpenske]

Fifty. Four. NHL. Games.

Nobody knows if he's worth a 7 year contract.

I have to agree. I mean he's looked ok.....just ok.
Maybe in a couple years contracts for D-men will go up to a point that will make this like a bargain.

 

[Diaspora]

I just don't get this one bit. The Sabres self scout and have a great pulse on the team finally. This guy is being targeted as someone who is already a huge team leader, good on the ice, and likely a cornerstone for a long time. The Sabres are doing something differently than the rest of the league, and trying to reward their home grown guys, and build from within. How in the universe is this and Tage's contracts anything other than building a huge foundation for this team down the road?
We've been a freaking shit hole franchise for the last decade plus, and now we start rewarding guys, and you have a problem with that? Man, Kevyn is trying a different approach that is quite honestly refreshing as hell, and for some reason, you want to do it the old way still? I'm looking at these deals, and honestly, there's not even that much risk in doing so. The greater benefit and reward far far outway the risks. Other guys on the team see this happening, and know that if they perform on and off the ice, they get rewarded too. Times are changing around here, and I'm all about it.

Preach!

 

[Zman5778]

I mean he's looked ok.....just ok.

Then you didn't see the right games. There were a couple of games last year where he was easily our best defenseman........and once paired with Dahlin, they were a LEGIT 1st pairing crew.

 

[old kummelweck]

Craig Rivet said that Samuelsson should fire his agent. An absolute steal for the Sabres. That he'd be getting $4m per in a bridge deal next contract.

 

[Zman5778]

Craig Rivet said that Samuelsson should fire his agent. An absolute steal for the Sabres. That he'd be getting $4m per in a bridge deal next contract.

I don't think Antidote would be getting $4M on his next bridge. $2-3M on a 3 year bridge would be my guess. Then he'd get PAID once the cap increases.

So yeah, Sammy left a bunch of money on the table. Maybe a good $10/15 million on his post-bridge deal, if not more.

 

[Diaspora]

Craig Rivet said that Samuelsson should fire his agent. An absolute steal for the Sabres. That he'd be getting $4m per in a bridge deal next contract.

I'd wager Brisson told him that. He may have sacrificed millions of dollars. On purpose. To be with these guys, in this place. He knows he's being shown trust, and this is his response.

This is character. This is the guy you go to war with. Who you fight for.

Extraordinary things are coming.

 

[Ace]

I don't think Antidote would be getting $4M on his next bridge. $2-3M on a 3 year bridge would be my guess. Then he'd get PAID once the cap increases.

So yeah, Sammy left a bunch of money on the table. Maybe a good $10/15 million on his post-bridge deal, if not more.

What he would get on a bridge after this season is an interesting conversation. At that time he’s likely looking at coming off a full year (or year and a half if you want) of being a top pairing D on this team. Im not sure that doesn’t buy him at least very close to 4 per on a bridge.

 

[brian_griffin]

As an aside:

I truly hope that this deal shows that the Pegulas will, in fact, pay when the time is right. That we're not a cap floor team in perpetuity.

More critically, to me at least, it shows Pegulas trust Adams, and aren't going to pester Adams into signing the next Taylor Hall unless Adams thinks it's the right move.

I mean......I do get it. We've been pitifully awful for 10/11 years now. Having hope and trusting the organization is NOT an easy thing to do.

I'd add patience to the hope and trusting above.

Soooo.Mitts was extended 3 x $2.5 to be 3C. (maybe 2C) and a 4C is worth $2.8m for 4 years?????

If your 4C is more than $2-2.25m you are doing it wrong. And more than likely $1.5-$1.8 is more appropriate.

I'll buy that, pun intended for a 4C Cody Eakin. If your 4C is Asplund, he's worth more; specifically his Corsi / Fenwick is worth more.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

I think the money works pretty close out in real terms:

4.3M x 3 years v 2.5M x 3 years (bridge)
4.3M x 4 years v 6M x 4 years

My stuff is back of the envelope but suspect they've negotiated based upon ~6.5% annual inflation for the life of the deal.

Buffalo buys out some injury and performance risk for Samuelsson; both sides take on different sides of the interest rate risk.

I posted some thoughts about his pay relative to his peers on the mainboard.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

Love that they locked up Kjell 2.0 long term. $4.29 M per season isn’t that outlandish. Especially when the guy is on your top pairing. At worst, you’ll have a slightly overpaid 3rd pairing Dman if players like Jokiharju, Lindgren, Johnson (and presumably other dmen they draft this upcoming draft) surpass him, that’s a good problem to have.

 

[JLewyB]

The way he plays begs for banged up injuries. We saw it last year. I would’ve liked to see he could hold up for another season before committing this type of contract. I get it would have been more like 5 million a year but I like the reassurance.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Late to the party / haven't read the whole thread.

On the whole i like this from Adams. I can absolutely see why some people would hate it - Samuelsson is very unproven at the NHL level. But he's always been one of the 'safest' type of prospects & the AAV is fine for a 4D - which should be at least what he projects to be. Hopefully it means long term there's room to pay Dahlin, Power plus someone else ahead of him.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

What's his offensive upside? He hasn't yet scored in the NHL.

Is 5G, 20A realistic in a good season?

 

[Fjordy]

What's his offensive upside? He hasn't yet scored in the NHL.

Is 5G, 20A realistic in a good season?

I would probably look at guys like Slavin and Pesce. Samuelsson mostly played with Bryson in the third pair and only then began to play with Dahlin, naturally he will have more points in the first pair with Rasmus than in the third. I think he could very well be a 25-30 point player.