Confirmed with Link: Mattias Samuelsson Signs 7 year extension ($4.29M AAV)

[old kummelweck]

Craig Rivet said that Samuelsson should fire his agent. An absolute steal for the Sabres. That he'd be getting $4m per in a bridge deal next contract.

 

[Chainshot]

JR is about as observant as tree moss.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

The real question since we know he will be here for the foreseeable future is.... what nickname do we go with? So many to choose from, but seems we should get on the same page.

Kjell 2.0
The Antidote
Mule
Sammy
Cobra

Perhaps we need a poll

 

[Jim Bob]

JR is about as observant as tree moss.

He did make me chuckle when he described Kjell.

 

[DapperCam]

Craig Rivet said that Samuelsson should fire his agent. An absolute steal for the Sabres. That he'd be getting $4m per in a bridge deal next contract.

I guess it just depends on personality and risk tolerance. This way he has secured a huge sum of money (barring buyout) and won’t have to move around like some guys do. He traded potential future earnings for stability and still gets to have generational wealth.

 

[Jim Bob]

I guess it just depends on personality and risk tolerance. This way he has secured a huge sum of money (barring buyout) and won’t have to move around like some guys do. He traded potential future earnings for stability and still gets to have generational wealth.

It sure sounds like Samuelsson wanted a long term deal from the get go.

Given that he is a son of a former NHLer, I am sure he knows how things work and that he did value that stability. His dad played for 4 different teams and the Flyers twice. And who knows what his contract negotiations were like.

 

[TehDoak]

Yet you're writing dissertation-length posts on how bad this deal is......when you say yourself that it's not the end of the world if the worst case happens.

The worst case scenario is that he isn't a NHL d-man at all.

While I don't think that is the likely scenario,it's on the table. We don't know because.....we've only seen him in the NHL for 54 games.

There is zero reason to sign this contract now. It's taking a risk you didn't have to take.

 

[Fjordy]

There is zero reason to sign this contract now. It's taking a risk you didn't have to take.

Why? There is a good chance that in a year you would have to pay more. 54 games is not so small, why should he become a bad player? Adams also has to consider that Dahlin and Power are likely to be very high paying players in the near future and locking up a player like Samuelsson to a contract like this looks like a good investment in the future, we could use every million in a cap soon.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Given that he is a son of a former NHLer, I am sure he knows how things work and that he did value that stability. His dad played for 4 different teams and the Flyers twice. And who knows what his contract negotiations were like.

Interesting thing about his father that I just realized. Back in 92 when the Pens traded Coffey to the Kings, the package they received in return included Kjell Samuelsson (His dad as we all know) and also received Jeff Chychrun (Jakobs dad). It's meaningless, but I found it interesting nonetheless.

 

[Chainshot]

The worst case scenario is that he isn't a NHL d-man at all.

While I don't think that is the likely scenario,it's on the table. We don't know because.....we've only seen him in the NHL for 54 games.

There is zero reason to sign this contract now. It's taking a risk you didn't have to take.

No, we know that what he does is very much as an NHL d-man. It's clear you didn't watch much last season.

 

[Grouch]

More critically, to me at least, it shows Pegulas trust Adams, and aren't going to pester Adams into signing the next Taylor Hall unless Adams thinks it's the right move.

I'd add patience to the hope and trusting above.

I'll buy that, pun intended for a 4C Cody Eakin. If your 4C is Asplund, he's worth more; specifically his Corsi / Fenwick is worth more.

So Girgs being career -5.9 Corsi and -5.8 Fenwick means he is re-signing for league minimum?

 

[RefsIdeas]

Why? There is a good chance that in a year you would have to pay more. 54 games is not so small, why should he become a bad player? Adams also has to consider that Dahlin and Power are likely to be very high paying players in the near future and locking up a player like Samuelsson to a contract like this looks like a good investment in the future, we could use every million in a cap soon.

Could you give me a comparable contract that you think Samuelsson would warrant after this season? Especially considering RFA status?

 

[old kummelweck]

It sure sounds like Samuelsson wanted a long term deal from the get go.

Given that he is a son of a former NHLer, I am sure he knows how things work and that he did value that stability. His dad played for 4 different teams and the Flyers twice. And who knows what his contract negotiations were like.

This is a huge mental stretch, but makes you wonder if the trials and tribulations of Kjell and him growing up around that was not all milk and honey. When asked what he'll spend the money on, he mentions 'maybe something for my parents.'

 

[old kummelweck]

Could you give me a comparable contract that you think Samuelsson would warrant after this season? Especially considering RFA status?

Erik Cernak. And you have to also look at the salary cap growth after a supposed bridge deal and the inflationary effect on contracts.

 

[TehDoak]

No, we know that what he does is very much as an NHL d-man. It's clear you didn't watch much last season.

Because young d-man haven't looked good for a 3/4 of a season and then never looked as good again? Mike Weber was great his rookie year. So did Jake McCabe. I am hopeful for Samuelsson, he DID look good last year.

You don't give 7 year deals off of 3/4 of a season. He could regress mightily this season. Or maybe once players have the book on him he'll struggle. There are so many unknowns about Samuelsson still.

It's why this deal is crazy.

For every Jonas Brodin or Erik Cernak who just dominate from an early age, there are 10 Mike Webers. We don't know who Samuelsson is yet. Period.

 

[Fjordy]

Could you give me a comparable contract that you think Samuelsson would warrant after this season? Especially considering RFA status?

They said above about Cernak, there are also defenders of a similar type who signed contracts for 5+ or 6+ million. The status of the RFA does not give anything, now it is not very profitable to sign bridge contracts, especially remembering the situation with Reinhart and the subsequent growth of the cap. In this thread on page 8, I wrote lists of different defenders and their contracts.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Interesting thing about his father that I just realized. Back in 92 when the Pens traded Coffey to the Kings, the package they received in return included Kjell Samuelsson (His dad as we all know) and also received Jeff Chychrun (Jakobs dad). It's meaningless, but I found it interesting nonetheless.

It's not meaningless -- this is a top tier tidbit!

 

[Bendium]

Because young d-man haven't looked good for a 3/4 of a season and then never looked as good again? Mike Weber was great his rookie year. So did Jake McCabe. I am hopeful for Samuelsson, he DID look good last year.

You don't give 7 year deals off of 3/4 of a season. He could regress mightily this season. Or maybe once players have the book on him he'll struggle. There are so many unknowns about Samuelsson still.

It's why this deal is crazy.

For every Jonas Brodin or Erik Cernak who just dominate from an early age, there are 10 Mike Webers. We don't know who Samuelsson is yet. Period.

Your point is solid. However, the two things that give me more confidence in this are:

1. The Sabres may have the top analytics department in the NHL. This deal did not get done without their input. So I believe all the valid concerns you raised were reviewed and analyzed, and they liked their chances.

2. Another poster showed the best thru worst case scenarios, and even the worst case was very tolerable with an easy buyout due to age.

Lastly, if you're the Sabres and you plan to play him next to Dahlin all season, his numbers WILL be solid enough to justify the contract, and more likely make him much more expensive.

 

[elchud]

For every Jonas Brodin or Erik Cernak who just dominate from an early age, there are 10 Mike Webers. We don't know who Samuelsson is yet. Period.

This is true. I mean look at all of the nicknames Samuelsson has everybody is calling him this that or the other thing. Who the hell is this guy really.

 

[GrierIsGod123]

I would probably look at guys like Slavin and Pesce. Samuelsson mostly played with Bryson in the third pair and only then began to play with Dahlin, naturally he will have more points in the first pair with Rasmus than in the third. I think he could very well be a 25-30 point player.

Earlier in the thread, I asked if Slavin was a good comparison in terms of stats. While I don't think it's impossible, I think Pesce is much more likely. In fact, I'd be surprised if he weren't on that level. Hovering between 25 and just under 30 points in his prime. If paired with Dahlin, he'll help him achieve lofty totals but will be doing a lot of the unheralded work that doesn't result in nearly as many points.

Small sample size alert, but 28 points in 45 AHL games is nothing to sneeze at. Projected over a full season, that's about a 50-point pace without PP time. Can't wait to see if he can translate some of that up here.

 

[GrierIsGod123]

Because young d-man haven't looked good for a 3/4 of a season and then never looked as good again? Mike Weber was great his rookie year. So did Jake McCabe. I am hopeful for Samuelsson, he DID look good last year.

You don't give 7 year deals off of 3/4 of a season. He could regress mightily this season. Or maybe once players have the book on him he'll struggle. There are so many unknowns about Samuelsson still.

It's why this deal is crazy.

For every Jonas Brodin or Erik Cernak who just dominate from an early age, there are 10 Mike Webers. We don't know who Samuelsson is yet. Period.

Did Mike Weber ever play against the level of competition that we saw with Samuelsson? I'm honestly not recalling how Weber was used but thought it was mainly in a sheltered third-pairing role.

 

[elchud]

Samuelsson was captain of U18 and U20 and WMU also I think. He had the NHL pedigree. He is 6'4 225. The entire organization is 100% convinced that he will be a better player this coming season and they are planning on him and Dahlin to be a pairing for a long time.

As previously mentioned by someone the analytics team surely had input on this contract (and Tage contract as well). We can be sure that across the board everyone is happy in the Sabres org with this deal.

I think if he played out this season and it went as expected we would be looking at 5x5 instead of 7x4.whatevs.

He got a fair deal considering everything. Just like Tage. Could the team have done a bit better with each? Sure. 750k better on each contract? Maybe. Or maybe not.

Lets not ruin the good feels on opening night. Lets do that next week. If he still hasn't scored his first NHL goal and its January I will smash a 40 oz Cobra malt.

 

[Chainshot]

Samuelsson was captain of U18 and U20 and WMU also I think. He had the NHL pedigree. He is 6'4 225. The entire organization is 100% convinced that he will be a better player this coming season and they are planning on him and Dahlin to be a pairing for a long time.

As previously mentioned by someone the analytics team surely had input on this contract (and Tage contract as well). We can be sure that across the board everyone is happy in the Sabres org with this deal.

I think if he played out this season and it went as expected we would be looking at 5x5 instead of 7x4.whatevs.

He got a fair deal considering everything. Just like Tage. Could the team have done a bit better with each? Sure. 750k better on each contract? Maybe. Or maybe not.

Lets not ruin the good feels on opening night. Lets do that next week. If he still hasn't scored his first NHL goal and its January I will smash a 40 oz Cobra malt.

Yeah, he was a rare one for WMU, voted captain as a sophomore. Player interviews talk about him as being a guy they love to play with going back to his pre-draft scouting. His teammates voted him captain for the U18 and U20 teams as well. This is another one of those guys who keeps talking about wanting to be around this team a long time and they made sure it's done - it's a bit of foundation and a bit of recruitment to anyone who might be thinking about staying and it's certainly going to be a demarcation for others in their defensive salary structure. If someone isn't out performing him, it's going to make it harder to demand more money than he's drawing.

 

[WhereAreTheCookies]

Small sample size alert, but 28 points in 45 AHL games is nothing to sneeze at. Projected over a full season, that's about a 50-point pace without PP time. Can't wait to see if he can translate some of that up here.

We saw some of that starting to translate as he played more games. Obviously small sample sizes but the shift was pretty clear.

First 20 games of the season - 2 points, -11 and only played over 20 minutes 5 times (18.5 minutes a game)
Final 22 games of the season - 8 points, +1 and only played UNDER 20 minutes 4 times (21.3 minutes a game)

You can chalk that up to luck, say it was Dahlin or Power, say it was an anomaly or whatever. I say it was a player developing very quickly and embracing the expanded role he was given as well as giving Dahlin more room to work and freewheel.

 

[GrierIsGod123]

Right, if he did indeed figure it out towards the end of the season...that would project to around that 30-point mark over 82 games. If Dahlin has the season a lot of us are expecting (60-70 pts), then I see no reason Samuelsson couldn't hit at least 25-points this year.