Confirmed with Link: Mattias Samuelsson Signs 7 year extension ($4.29M AAV)

[Jim Bob]

Noted Thoughts: Game 1 vs. Ottawa

It was sloppy for both teams, but a 4-1 Sabres win is a pleasant result

notedhockey.substack.com

“I saw an opening, so I just went for it,” Dahlin said. “(Samuelsson), he’s backing me up, so I’m not scared of having the puck and I know he’s backing me up. So, I saw it and I went for it.”

That is why you pay the man.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Unless Samuelsson develops an offensive game that we haven’t seen yet, he won’t be worth 6-6.5m for quite some time. It’s much more likely he’s Chris Tanev (who is very good - don’t get me wrong) but those players just don’t command that big of contracts.

Sure, maybe 5-6 years from now we’re saving 1-1.5m on the contract, but that potential savings hardly seems worth it. We’re basically giving him a contract that will pay him 80% of his maximum contract potential before he’s proven anything.

Why haven’t you seen his potential offensive game? Did you just not watch any of his past two developmental years?

 

[RefsIdeas]

Why haven’t you seen his potential offensive game? Did you just not watch any of his past two developmental years?

I’ve watched nearly every minute he’s ever played in the NHL. I’d say he has good vision, but I’d stop short of calling him an above average passer. Offense isn’t something that’s been his strength at any level of hockey in his career, apart from his start in the AHL last year. It’s silly to expect him to bloom an offensive game. If he does, great! But it’s a low probability outcome.

 

[Dirty Dog]

I’ve watched nearly every minute he’s ever played in the NHL. I’d say he has good vision, but I’d stop short of calling him an above average passer. Offense isn’t something that’s been his strength at any level of hockey in his career, apart from his start in the AHL last year. It’s silly to expect him to bloom an offensive game. If he does, great! But it’s a low probability outcome.

He’s not going to be an offensive defensemen scoring 50 points. But he has shown the potential to put up 20-30 points a season. So I don’t get the painting of him as nothing but defense…it isn’t true

 

[Diaspora]

Why haven’t you seen his potential offensive game? Did you just not watch any of his past two developmental years?

He's got some offense in him. My guess is you may never see it unless Ras eats some bad oysters. And that's ok.

 

[RefsIdeas]

He’s not going to be an offensive defensemen scoring 50 points. But he has shown the potential to put up 20-30 points a season. So I don’t get the painting of him as nothing but defense…it isn’t true

I'm very confused by this statement. Is 20-30 supposed to be good? There were 19 defenseman that played 75 or more games that didn't get to at least 20 points. It would be concerning if he didn't get to at least that mark while playing on the top pair with Dahlin. Yes, I agree, 20-30 is certainly in his wheelhouse - were you under the assumption that I thought he was Lybushkin or something?

My comment about "developing an offensive game" was in reference to him not being worth 6-6.5m. Defenseman in that range typically have an offensive game.

Defenseman that earn at least $6M AAV, played in 75 or more games last year, didn't reach at least 30 points:

1. OEL (29 points)
2. Erik Johnson
3. Tyler Myers
4. Vlasic

 

[Fjordy]

My comment about "developing an offensive game" was in reference to him not being worth 6-6.5m. Defenseman in that range typically have an offensive game.

Where offensive game from Pelech, Lindholm, Parayko, Lindell and Brodin? They get paid 5,5-6,5M.

 

[RefsIdeas]

Where offensive game from Pelech, Lindholm, Parayko, Lindell and Brodin? They get paid 5,5-6,5M.

All of those players have hit 30+ points, minus Pelech - who is considered one of, if not the very best defensive defenseman in hockey. You’re also listing players that are widely considered to be some of the very best defensive defenseman.

Which again goes to my point - we’re paying Samuelsson like he should be without a doubt top 10 defensive defenseman to warrant his contract or see any real savings from it.

The thing is - I like Samuelsson. Absolutely zero problem with the player. I just think it was a very bad contract that KA handed out. Happy for Samuelsson as a person, dislike it from a management standpoint.

Lily and Sandin in Toronto got 1.4m. Those are really more apt comparables as they’re younger players who are relatively unproven, but had a solid defensive season. Yes, Samuelsson should get more because we bought UFA years, but over a 300% markup doesn’t seem in the ballpark.

You’re comparing his contract as if he’s is, or will be, a top 10 defensive defenseman in order to justify it. Do you see how that becomes problematic? Especially considering the few amount of games he’s played? And when you consider that there was zero reason we had to get this deal done right now?

 

[Dirty Dog]

I'm very confused by this statement. Is 20-30 supposed to be good? There were 19 defenseman that played 75 or more games that didn't get to at least 20 points. It would be concerning if he didn't get to at least that mark while playing on the top pair with Dahlin. Yes, I agree, 20-30 is certainly in his wheelhouse - were you under the assumption that I thought he was Lybushkin or something?

My comment about "developing an offensive game" was in reference to him not being worth 6-6.5m. Defenseman in that range typically have an offensive game.

Defenseman that earn at least $6M AAV, played in 75 or more games last year, didn't reach at least 30 points:

1. OEL (29 points)
2. Erik Johnson
3. Tyler Myers
4. Vlasic

You aren’t projecting this out at all. When Samuelsson is scoring 30 points and providing great defense in 3 years, what do you think the going rate of that type of player is going to be?

That’s what the Sabres are betting on. Your list showing defensemen making over 6 mil in 2021 that don’t provide much offense (or comparable offense to what Samuelson is likely to do if it doesn’t elevate his offensive game) isn’t proving your point at all. This contract isn’t for 2021

 

[Dingo44]

All of those players have hit 30+ points, minus Pelech - who is considered one of, if not the very best defensive defenseman in hockey. You’re also listing players that are widely considered to be some of the very best defensive defenseman.

Which again goes to my point - we’re paying Samuelsson like he should be without a doubt top 10 defensive defenseman to warrant his contract or see any real savings from it.

The thing is - I like Samuelsson. Absolutely zero problem with the player. I just think it was a very bad contract that KA handed out. Happy for Samuelsson as a person, dislike it from a management standpoint.

Lily and Sandin in Toronto got 1.4m. Those are really more apt comparables as they’re younger players who are relatively unproven, but had a solid defensive season. Yes, Samuelsson should get more because we bought UFA years, but over a 300% markup doesn’t seem in the ballpark.

You’re comparing his contract as if he’s is, or will be, a top 10 defensive defenseman in order to justify it. Do you see how that becomes problematic? Especially considering the few amount of games he’s played? And when you consider that there was zero reason we had to get this deal done right now?

Not really. I think you're alone with this. But I respect your willingness to keep going.

The Athletic has an article that somewhat brings up some of your concerns today but like all national reporters they don't really watch Sammy.

Why are NHL teams are betting on less proven players with long-term deals?

What's behind the trend of teams signing players who haven't quite established themselves yet to long-term deals.

theathletic.com

 

[RefsIdeas]

You aren’t projecting this out at all. When Samuelsson is scoring 30 points and providing great defense in 3 years, what do you think the going rate of that type of player is going to be?

That’s what the Sabres are betting on. Your list showing defensemen making over 6 mil in 2021 that don’t provide much offense isn’t proving your point at all. This contract isn’t for 2021

Okay, I went and did some math. Maybe this will help clarify my viewpoint.

In 2009 - 2010, the NHL salary cap was $56.8m. A second pairing defenseman (let's say this is the most likely outcome for Mattias - a solid second pairing shut down guy in a vaccuum that plays on the top line w/Dahlin) that year made around $3m. That $3m represented 5.3% of the total cap. Currently, Samuelsson's contract at $4.29m represents 5.1% of the total cap next year at $83.5m.

In 2029, if the cap goes up roughly $2m per year, we will have a cap of $96m. I think both of those are fairly reasonable numbers to project. If we split the difference between the two contracts at 5.2% - that projects out to the average second pair defenseman making $4.992,000. Representing a savings of $702,000 for Samuelsson's contract - in 2029. While it's certainly not nothing, calling this contract a "steal" in any sense isn't really accurate. It also ignores the inherent risk (however likely one deems that to be) that comes with offering that contract before he's proven anything.

Could Samuelsson end up being more than a solid shut down guy - and include some more offense? Sure - but I don't think that's what anybody is necessarily expecting. It seems like we've set the expectation at around 20-30 points - which I think is perfectly in-line. If he consistently puts up more than 30 points - yes, he's worth more than that. If not, we're probably paying him a bit too much for the next handful of years, and getting some (small) savings in the latter years - assuming everything goes according to plan. If it doesn't - then it's a horrible contract. There inlies the risk/reward people wanted to talk about. We take all of the risk, for a fairly small reward - barring a somewhat unforseen offensive game that Samuelsson would provide.

 

[Dingo44]

Okay, I went and did some math. Maybe this will help clarify my viewpoint.

In 2009 - 2010, the NHL salary cap was $56.8m. A second pairing defenseman (let's say this is the most likely outcome for Mattias - a solid second pairing shut down guy in a vaccuum that plays on the top line w/Dahlin) that year made around $3m. That $3m represented 5.3% of the total cap. Currently, Samuelsson's contract at $4.29m represents 5.1% of the total cap next year at $83.5m.

In 2029, if the cap goes up roughly $2m per year, we will have a cap of $96m. I think both of those are fairly reasonable numbers to project. If we split the difference between the two contracts at 5.2% - that projects out to the average second pair defenseman making $4.992,000. Representing a savings of $702,000 for Samuelsson's contract - in 2029. While it's certainly not nothing, calling this contract a "steal" in any sense isn't really accurate. It also ignores the inherent risk (however likely one deems that to be) that comes with offering that contract before he's proven anything.

Could Samuelsson end up being more than a solid shut down guy - and include some more offense? Sure - but I don't think that's what anybody is necessarily expecting. It seems like we've set the expectation at around 20-30 points - which I think is perfectly in-line. If he consistently puts up more than 30 points - yes, he's worth more than that. If not, we're probably paying him a bit too much for the next handful of years, and getting some (small) savings in the latter years - assuming everything goes according to plan. If it doesn't - then it's a horrible contract. There inlies the risk/reward people wanted to talk about. We take all of the risk, for a fairly small reward - barring a somewhat unforseen offensive game that Samuelsson would provide.

He's locked in for 8 more seasons and this was the price for which he was willing to do this.

Could we have waited? Sure.

Would it be cheaper in a year? Maybe, but maybe not. A year of being attached to Dahlin? Probably not.

If we don't sign him, does that run the risk of alienating the player, or sending the wrong message to the other young guys and those we're trying to sign out of college? Quite possibly.

Will a million a year break us over the cost of the contract? Unless Samuelsson takes a huge nose dive, no.

Would we be better off with Sandin or Lily? F no.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Okay, I went and did some math. Maybe this will help clarify my viewpoint.

In 2009 - 2010, the NHL salary cap was $56.8m. A second pairing defenseman (let's say this is the most likely outcome for Mattias - a solid second pairing shut down guy in a vaccuum that plays on the top line w/Dahlin) that year made around $3m. That $3m represented 5.3% of the total cap. Currently, Samuelsson's contract at $4.29m represents 5.1% of the total cap next year at $83.5m.

In 2029, if the cap goes up roughly $2m per year, we will have a cap of $96m. I think both of those are fairly reasonable numbers to project. If we split the difference between the two contracts at 5.2% - that projects out to the average second pair defenseman making $4.992,000. Representing a savings of $702,000 for Samuelsson's contract - in 2029. While it's certainly not nothing, calling this contract a "steal" in any sense isn't really accurate. It also ignores the inherent risk (however likely one deems that to be) that comes with offering that contract before he's proven anything.

Could Samuelsson end up being more than a solid shut down guy - and include some more offense? Sure - but I don't think that's what anybody is necessarily expecting. It seems like we've set the expectation at around 20-30 points - which I think is perfectly in-line. If he consistently puts up more than 30 points - yes, he's worth more than that. If not, we're probably paying him a bit too much for the next handful of years, and getting some (small) savings in the latter years - assuming everything goes according to plan. If it doesn't - then it's a horrible contract. There inlies the risk/reward people wanted to talk about. We take all of the risk, for a fairly small reward - barring a somewhat unforseen offensive game that Samuelsson would provide.

Good post! But I think the point is in that scenario it’s a good/fair contract and you have him locked up.

I agree it isn’t a steal or great value unless he elevates his game. But I think that’s definitely a possibility.

But the bottom line is if he maintains his game, for the most part, it’s pretty expected value.

 

[Fjordy]

All of those players have hit 30+ points, minus Pelech - who is considered one of, if not the very best defensive defenseman in hockey. You’re also listing players that are widely considered to be some of the very best defensive defenseman.

Which again goes to my point - we’re paying Samuelsson like he should be without a doubt top 10 defensive defenseman to warrant his contract or see any real savings from it.

The thing is - I like Samuelsson. Absolutely zero problem with the player. I just think it was a very bad contract that KA handed out. Happy for Samuelsson as a person, dislike it from a management standpoint.

Lily and Sandin in Toronto got 1.4m. Those are really more apt comparables as they’re younger players who are relatively unproven, but had a solid defensive season. Yes, Samuelsson should get more because we bought UFA years, but over a 300% markup doesn’t seem in the ballpark.

You’re comparing his contract as if he’s is, or will be, a top 10 defensive defenseman in order to justify it. Do you see how that becomes problematic? Especially considering the few amount of games he’s played? And when you consider that there was zero reason we had to get this deal done right now?

Dude, I just disagree with you, I think you're wrong. We do not pay Samuelsson 6-6.5 million. Also, Samuelsson plays in the first pair, and Sandin does not play in Toronto for many minutes.

 

[Chainshot]

If Sammy pushes up to a 30-35 point player - and with his partner and TOI and the style of the team it seems likely - then in a few years it can be people taking about him being the benchmark for solid value at that payroll percentage be say, Sanheim.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

Just a reminder what 4M will get you these days. Yes, I know everyone panned this deal the moment it was made, but still...deals like this will keep happening every year because NHL GMs can't help themselves.

 

[dire wolf]

Almost scored his first NHL goal off his nose today. Love how he drove the net. Also probably saved a goal with his glove.

I have no concerns at all about his contract. He's going to be a foundational piece for years.

 

[HaNotsri]

Dahlin is the guy.
Samuelsson is the other the guy.
A pairing like that could break space time.

 

[MOGlLNY]

Sabres Record with Samuelsson in the lineup 6-1
Sabres Record without Samuelsson in the lineup 3-10

If anyone has the difference in our Penalty Kill too when he's in vs out I'd love to see it.

 

[Chainshot]

Sabres Record with Samuelsson in the lineup 6-1
Sabres Record without Samuelsson in the lineup 3-10

If anyone has the difference in our Penalty Kill too when he's in vs out I'd love to see it.

6-1-0 with him in the lineup so far this year.
GF: 35
GA: 15
PK: 85% (4GA /27 times short)

Not precise since he was hurt in one of those games but a +20 goal differential in the games he has played and a massive difference in the PK (they gave up 14 goals on 39 times short in his absence).

The man is the lynchpin of their defense.

^^From the other Sammy thread.

 

[MOGlLNY]

^^From the other Sammy thread.

Kevyn Adams extensions already looking very very good.

realizing I meant to post this on the main thread. brb

 

[tsujimoto74]

Dahlin is the guy.
Samuelsson is the other the guy.
A pairing like that could break space time.

Not sure about space time, but it can sure break opposing teams. Samuelsson-Dahlin is going to be a dominant pairing for a long time. And we'll have Power behind them. (It'll probably be a few years before that's really scary, but I'm confident Power will develop into a pretty damn good defenseman in time.)

 

[UnleashRasmus]

If we could carbon copy Samuelsson into one more right handed skating defensemen and replace Jokiharju we'd be set. But it is showing how much we struggled without the two of them in the line up.

 

[BG82]

Samuelsson is gonna become our version of Ken Daneyko.

Were far more organized with him healthy and his defensive prowess will allow Dahlin/Power get up ice and create.

 

[EichHart]

If we could carbon copy Samuelsson into one more right handed skating defensemen and replace Jokiharju we'd be set. But it is showing how much we struggled without the two of them in the line up.

Can Johnson be that guy?