Prospect Info: Matthew Tkachuk or PL Dubois (Round 3)

[GreetingsFromCanada]

I'm not disregarding anything. I don't know enough about Keller to judge him. I am just stating my feelings on small players, and concerns about their size are real. I haven't watched him play a single game, so I an not going to judge him at all.

Here's what we do know, he's dominated every level he's played in and made a joke out of his ranking in draft predictions.

 

[Boose Brudreau]

Which are still nothing compared to men in the NHL.

college juniors and seniors are a lot closer to men in the NHL than 17 and 18 year old CHL players.

 

[Captain Bowie]

college juniors and seniors are a lot closer to men in the NHL than 17 and 18 year old CHL players.

Of course, but still not the same. A lot of these smaller guys even find success in the AHL, but can't quite do so in the NHL, for whatever reason. That is all I'm saying. Just look at perrenial AHL all-stars like Chris Bourque (5'8) or Andy Miele (5'8), or most of the guys at the top of the AHL scoring list this year; 1st - Bourque, 2nd - Seth Griffith (5'9), 4th - Khoklachev (5'11), 6th - Miele, 7th - Austin Czarnik (5'9), 10th - Arcobello (5'8).

 

[Boose Brudreau]

I'm not disregarding anything. I don't know enough about Keller to judge him. I am just stating my feelings on small players, and concerns about their size are real. I haven't watched him play a single game, so I an not going to judge him at all.

small players succeed in the NHL if they are fearless, fast/quick and slippery with high end vision/hockey sense. Keller is all those things and he is an incredibly good stick handler and has an accurate shot he can get off quickly. He and Boeser would be real good together. real good

 

[Captain Bowie]

small players succeed in the NHL if they are fearless, fast/quick and slippery with high end vision/hockey sense. Keller is all those things and he is an incredibly good stick handler and has an accurate shot he can get off quickly. He and Boeser would be real good together. real good

Small players CAN be successful....

There is no guarantee for any player, ever. The failure rate for smaller players are higher, that's all I'm saying.

 

[GreetingsFromCanada]

Small players CAN be successful....

There is no guarantee for any player, ever. The failure rate for smaller players are higher, that's all I'm saying.

It's literally just safer to always pick the highest scoring player.
http://canucksarmy.com/2014/6/18/jake-virtanen-is-good-so-don-t-draft-him

 

[crobro]

Lets hope Jesse falls down to five

 

[Captain Bowie]

It's literally just safer to always pick the highest scoring player.
http://canucksarmy.com/2014/6/18/jake-virtanen-is-good-so-don-t-draft-him

I feel like I have clearly stated my opinion several times. You still aren't getting it so I guess this is where we part ways. Good day.

 

[Tim McCracken]

When has Benning ever said public comments to try and play mind games with other GM's? Just an actual honest question.

Have no idea, I don't scour the media listening or reading about everything he says but are there any pre-draft rankings showing any D in the top 5 at this point? There seems to be a clear top 3 followed by a clear couple with both of those two closing but then somewhat open afterwards. Other than drafting a D by need like potentially the Oilers, wouldn't it be a surprise to see one go early?

Just trying to think of the logical play with some gamesmanship thrown in and hoping Benning's at least capable of that! Seems more plausible than two division rival GM's tipping their hand.

 

[Verviticus]

I feel like I have clearly stated my opinion several times. You still aren't getting it so I guess this is where we part ways. Good day.

its because your opinion is insipid and hes desperately trying to drag actual conviction out of you rather than what is basically "sometimes, things happen"

 

[racerjoe]

That's why I said if all else is equal. Both have natural disadvatantages, as I stated being that big it is harder to be as quick as someone much smaller, but they often have issues being able to fight through men much bigger than them.

There is legitimate concerns about skilled players under 5'10. It is a good story when guys like St. Louis and Zucarello make it big, but for every one of them there are 20 guys as skilled or near as skilled that don't.

Keller is listed at 5'10, Marner 5'11 and Kane 5'11. I don't know him well enough and haven't watched him at all to think size will or won't be an issue. And it's not like he's 5'7 or 5'8, but size concerns are real.

I don't really disagree with any of this, I was just arguing against this statement;

That's not really true. With the same skillset being 6'6 is a hell of a lot better than being 5'9. Assuming all else is equal.

Saying both sides of the coin will have issues.

How many of those guys were projected with Brown's ceiling in the first place though?

I mean nice list but only Antropov and Bjugstad were even drafted in the top 30. That tells me their height wasn't the problem, it's that their skill wasn't good enough to begin with.

Brown, while not my choice for #5, doesn't belong in the same conversation as any of those guys. Or should I use a 7th round pick like Brandon Reid to illustrate why Keller is a risk? It doesn't make sense to use guys that simply aren't any good to begin with as examples of why height matters.

I wasn't trying to compare them in draft ranking circles, and would actually have to look at old draft boards to do so, but trying to point out there is a large sample of tall NHL players. I mean how many 5'9" high draft picks are out there? I guess probably more than 6'6" guys, but not a tone, because they too have a tough transition.

Have no idea, I don't scour the media listening or reading about everything he says but are there any pre-draft rankings showing any D in the top 5 at this point? There seems to be a clear top 3 followed by a clear couple with both of those two closing but then somewhat open afterwards. Other than drafting a D by need like potentially the Oilers, wouldn't it be a surprise to see one go early?

Just trying to think of the logical play with some gamesmanship thrown in and hoping Benning's at least capable of that! Seems more plausible than two division rival GM's tipping their hand.

I guess thats fair enough, so much gets made about GM's saying things in the media to throw of other GM's but I haven't seen or heard JB do it yet.

 

[CanaFan]

I wasn't trying to compare them in draft ranking circles, and would actually have to look at old draft boards to do so, but trying to point out there is a large sample of tall NHL players. I mean how many 5'9" high draft picks are out there? I guess probably more than 6'6" guys, but not a tone, because they too have a tough transition.

Except there is a HUGE disparity in the % of the population that is 5'9 and the % that is 6'6.

6'6 people are rare, full stop. So the fact that you see few that make it to the NHL is in itself not surprising at all. Yes there may be some natural drawbacks to that height but Brown is clearly an exception to that. He has the natural skill and coordination of a much shorter player and that shows in his U18 performance and draft stock. He may be a unicorn but that doesn't make him any more "risky" than if he was a more normative 6'2 height. And if he lacked the coordination of a shorter player due to his height, we'd already observe that in his game today . Since it is clearly not there we should not expect it to magically "appear" when he moves up a level.

5'9 people (or shorter) on the other hand are very common in the population. Therefore the fact that you see relatively few of them in the NHL speaks heavily to the inherent disadvantages and/or prejudices that come with that stature. And those are challenges that typically increase once players move up to the NHL level. The number of 5'9 players who excel in junior but don't reach the NHL greatly exceeds the number of 6'6 players who excel in junior but don't reach the NHL. The conversion rate from prospect to NHL player is what people should look at, not the raw number of either at the highest level.

 

[Captain Bowie]

I don't really disagree with any of this, I was just arguing against this statement;



Saying both sides of the coin will have issues.

OK, just curious then. If everything is equal, their skills and athleticism are exactly the same, wouldn't you want that in a larger frame? That comes with more inherent advantages than disadvantages.

Let me frame this another way... Do you think Eric Lindros would be more, less or just as effective as a 5'10 175 lb. player?

 

[Fat Tony]

If everything is equal, their skills and athleticism are exactly the same

They wouldn't be. Big players aren't small players scaled up a certain percentage.

 

[CanaFan]

Both heights have "issues" but at different points.

Extremely tall players will have issues early on as having inherently lower coordination and speed would limit your movement up through the hockey system and likely stop most from even getting to Major Junior. Basically if you suck, you suck. Your limitations will be well known and apparent long before the draft.

For "shorter" players the opposite is usually the case. You can excel at lower levels and coming up through the hockey development system as the dilution of talent means size is not yet highly valued. Even by Major Junior there are many sub 5'10 players who are strong performers.

Their issues come in the transition from CHL to AHL to NHL, all which occur AFTER the draft. In other words it becomes more of a projection as to whether they can overcome a natural size deficiency through being elite in other areas (skill, work ethic, skating). This means the risk in drafting a small player comes largely after the draft and there is harder to factor in to their valuation.

Both have issues, but when those issues appear and what their implications are is quite different.

 

[Captain Bowie]

They wouldn't be. Big players aren't small players scaled up a certain percentage.

That makes no sense. It is absolutely possible to have one short player and one tall player with near indentical shooting, skating, passing, vision, IQ, work ethic, hand eye, ect.... abilities. Why would you think it's not? Can a tall player not be as fast or agile as a short player?

 

[CanaFan]

They wouldn't be. Big players aren't small players scaled up a certain percentage.

Actually they can be. You can measure "skills" and compare them in players of different sizes. You can objectively measure Brown's skating relative to Kellers, their puck handling, shot, etc. Brown could be "better" in some of these areas and have added advantages that come with being taller (wingspan, leverage) and heavier (strength, bulk, shielding). Of course chances are good that Keller will be higher in many of those skill areas simply because he is, but it is far from impossible for them to be "equal".

 

[racerjoe]

Except there is a HUGE disparity in the % of the population that is 5'9 and the % that is 6'6.

6'6 people are rare, full stop. So the fact that you see few that make it to the NHL is in itself not surprising at all. Yes there may be some natural drawbacks to that height but Brown is clearly an exception to that. He has the natural skill and coordination of a much shorter player and that shows in his U18 performance and draft stock. He may be a unicorn but that doesn't make him any more "risky" than if he was a more normative 6'2 height. And if he lacked the coordination of a shorter player due to his height, we'd already observe that in his game today . Since it is clearly not there we should not expect it to magically "appear" when he moves up a level.

5'9 people (or shorter) on the other hand are very common in the population. Therefore the fact that you see relatively few of them in the NHL speaks heavily to the inherent disadvantages and/or prejudices that come with that stature. And those are challenges that typically increase once players move up to the NHL level. The number of 5'9 players who excel in junior but don't reach the NHL greatly exceeds the number of 6'6 players who excel in junior but don't reach the NHL. The conversion rate from prospect to NHL player is what people should look at, not the raw number of either at the highest level.

I think there is a lot to bite off here, you are trying to make it way too simplistic, when it is not that at all. There is a reason these skilled 6'6" guys are as you called it unicorns. To have the hands, and everything else is just nearly impossible. They have their own challenges, and maybe there is a bigger reason we see less, make it as far as brown. Either way, I can't count the very many top centers the league has ever had being over 6'5" (fully admit weird cut off at the inch different point).

Just as there are way more small skilled guys, how many become top 10 talents for the draft? It is just as hard for them. Both sides are outliers, I don't see how that is a hard concept. I am not advocating here what is better. Just that both too big or too small have equally hard times ahead.

OK, just curious then. If everything is equal, their skills and athleticism are exactly the same, wouldn't you want that in a larger frame? That comes with more inherent advantages than disadvantages.

Let me frame this another way... Do you think Eric Lindros would be more, less or just as effective as a 5'10 175 lb. player?

Same as above too simplistic. Could Lindross have played the same style of game at 5'10"? Maybe he playes a different game, is a smarter player and doesn't get caught by stevens... again and again.

I mean obviously if they are the exact same skill level take the bigger guy, but I don't think that has really ever happened in this sense. I could just as easily say do want Johnny Hockey or Boyle? Kane or Bjustad, but I won't cause I know it is meaningless.

Do you not agree both players will have their own difficulties moving up when they reach the NHL?

 

[Canucker]

That makes no sense. It is absolutely possible to have one short player and one tall player with near indentical shooting, skating, passing, vision, IQ, work ethic, hand eye, ect.... abilities. Why would you think it's not? Can a tall player not be as fast or agile as a short player?

No, they can't....straight ahead speed, sure...agility, quickness,elusiveness? Nope.

 

[Captain Bowie]

No, they can't....straight ahead speed, sure...agility, quickness,elusiveness? Nope.

What??

There's not a single 6'6 guy that plays hockey that is as athletic on the ice as anyone playing hockey at 5'9?? Ever? In the whole world?

 

[CanaFan]

No, they can't....straight ahead speed, sure...agility, quickness,elusiveness? Nope.

Nevermind.

 

[Captain Bowie]

I mean obviously if they are the exact same skill level take the bigger guy

Thank you! This is all I have been saying since the start.

but I don't think that has really ever happened in this sense. I could just as easily say do want Johnny Hockey or Boyle? Kane or Bjustad, but I won't cause I know it is meaningless.

Do you not agree both players will have their own difficulties moving up when they reach the NHL?

Right when I thought you had it, you lose it.

Gaudreau and Boyle aren't close to the same skill level, so why even bring them up? Nothing to do with what I'm saying.

 

[Canucker]

What??

There's not a single 6'6 guy that plays hockey that is as athletic on the ice as anyone playing hockey at 5'9?? Ever? In the whole world?

Athletic? Sure....but you didn't simply say "athletic", you gave a slew of different criteria. I don't think there has EVER been a 6'6" player who is as agile and elusive as someone like Denis Savard, or Theo Fleury or even Patrick Kane.

 

[CanaFan]

I think there is a lot to bite off here, you are trying to make it way too simplistic, when it is not that at all. There is a reason these skilled 6'6" guys are as you called it unicorns. To have the hands, and everything else is just nearly impossible. They have their own challenges, and maybe there is a bigger reason we see less, make it as far as brown. Either way, I can't count the very many top centers the league has ever had being over 6'5" (fully admit weird cut off at the inch different point).

Just as there are way more small skilled guys, how many become top 10 talents for the draft? It is just as hard for them. Both sides are outliers, I don't see how that is a hard concept. I am not advocating here what is better. Just that both too big or too small have equally hard times ahead.



Same as above too simplistic. Could Lindross have played the same style of game at 5'10"? Maybe he playes a different game, is a smarter player and doesn't get caught by stevens... again and again.

I mean obviously if they are the exact same skill level take the bigger guy, but I don't think that has really ever happened in this sense. I could just as easily say do want Johnny Hockey or Boyle? Kane or Bjustad, but I won't cause I know it is meaningless.

Do you not agree both players will have their own difficulties moving up when they reach the NHL?

Sure, in aggregate both cause problems. But not to the degree or in the direction you are suggesting.

Check this out to see just how rare a 6'6 person is:

https://tall.life/height-percentile-calculator-age-country/

Basically Brown is in the 99th percentile for male height in Canada. He and others his height already are unicorns. The fact that you can even find more than 5-6 players his height in the NHL shows that they are actually punching well above their weight. Statistically we should expect to see only 2 or 3.

Conversely the country is littered with males 5'5-5'9. The average height is only 5'8. People this height are not rare and we should expect the bulk of the NHL to be made up of people this height if size were no matter. This group punches well below its weight class.

The fact that Brown is already considered a top 5-10 prospect speaks to the fact that he has overcome any skill/coordination detriments that may come with his height. If he hadn't, he'd be rated in the 7th round like Mackenzie or Pettit.

And Keller is also rated in the 5-10 range despite his size, which speaks to his rare skill. But the fear with Keller is that he will not overcome the transition to the next level because he is 3-4 inches shorter and 15-30 lbs lighter than most players he will face. His height "risk" has yet to be overcome while for Brown just getting this far speaks to overcoming his height "risk".

 

[Captain Bowie]

Athletic? Sure....but you didn't simply say "athletic", you gave a slew of different criteria. I don't think there has EVER been a 6'6" player who is as agile and elusive as someone like Denis Savard, or Theo Fleury or even Patrick Kane.

My bad, I consider all of those things under "athleticism". Including agility, acceleration, speed, ect...

OK, what about Brandon Reid? Sam Gagner? Jordan Schroeder? There's never been a player at 6'6 as talented as these average NHL players? Not Nik Antropov or Nick Bjugstad?

Not trying to compare the tallest players to some of the most skilled players of all time.