Prospect Info: Matthew Tkachuk or PL Dubois (Round 3)

[Seventy7]

I think Dubois goes at 4.

If he goes, I think a trade will open up. Not that they dont like Tkachuk, but I think they dont want 3 of their top 4 forward prospects to be wingers. They need a D as priority, but also need a center with top line potential. (I personally didnt see McCann as that guy.)

Thus my gut tells me if Dubois is off the board, they trade down.

 

[Verviticus]

I agree, the amount of C prospects coming out of the Q should have no impact on the amount of top line Cs that came from the Q. Wait

this is worth at least a B-

 

[CanaFan]

I think Dubois goes at 4.

If he goes, I think a trade will open up. Not that they dont like Tkachuk, but I think they dont want 3 of their top 4 forward prospects to be wingers. They need a D as priority, but also need a center with top line potential. (I personally didnt see McCann as that guy.)

Thus my gut tells me if Dubois is off the board, they trade down.

Why would D be their priority?

3 of their top 4 D are 26 or younger. The oldest is 30.

Our forwards are a shambles once the Sedins move on and Boeser is the only player or prospect who looks like they *might* be a top line quality scorer.

How we could possibly see D as a bigger need than F is incomprehensible.

 

[Bleach Clean]

I think Dubois goes at 4.

If he goes, I think a trade will open up. Not that they dont like Tkachuk, but I think they dont want 3 of their top 4 forward prospects to be wingers. They need a D as priority, but also need a center with top line potential. (I personally didnt see McCann as that guy.)

Thus my gut tells me if Dubois is off the board, they trade down.

This would infuriate many.

They need to ensure they have top forwards first. Ideally, you don't want them to be wingers, but when you're not in a position to choose position + quality, you have to err on the side of quality.

 

[mossey3535]

I think whoever is drafting 4th has the toughest decision in the draft to make because of how tight these two players are right now, you could really argue each way.

If i did vote, i would lean towards PLD. And before anyone implies that it is because of his ability to play center, it isn't. I have long stated, that while PLD can play C at a high level, i see him as more effective as a RW and that is where i think he will settle in the NHL (So i see it as Dubois RW vs Tkachuk LW). But the team that drafts him wouldn't be doing their due diligence if they didn't at least try him at C. PLD just has very little weakness in his game but a lot of versatility, in terms of his usage on the ice, can impact the play in all 3 zones, and is continually improving. I don't see the criticism that he has bullied his way through the Q, a lot of his offense is generated off of his smarts, battle, and positioning, rather than brute force.

But on the other hand, Tkachuk is also very smart in the offensive zone, his vision is excellent, and i can see how some might say, offense comes more/very naturally to him. I think he has that "it" factor that is hard to find and that i can't quantify. I have also long argued that he wasn't a leech on the top line and was getting undue hate, he adds a lot to that line and in the few games at the beginning of the season without Marner/Dvorak, he was excellent and was the best player on the Knights IMO, while playing with Berisha/Piccinich or Sherwood. I am glad that his playoff run has opened up some eyes to his ability. But he does have some things to work on like his skating, which will need to get a bit better but i don't think it will hold him game back so much as his game doesn't revolve around speed (i likened his speed/skating style to a Brayden Schenn at this point), he takes a lot of bad penalties (in the playoffs, the joke on twitter was that for every bad penalty he took, he would have two points on the board), strength (needs some more to take the beatings at the NHL level) and a more concerted effort in the defensive zone would be nice (although i saw improvements over the course of the season).

You simply can't go wrong with either at 5. This is why we should keep the pick and take whichever one of these guys is there.

hahah thanks for replying, I value your opinion, especially since I didn't get to watch too much mem cup this year.

 

[F A N]

He seems to be changing his stance based on the team that's interview him:

...

Doesn't seem like he's set on either LW or C yet.

Ideally, Dubois should be selling himself on his versatility. It is true that he's been a winger all of his life and the scouting reports suggest that he did play his best hockey as a centre (although that could simply be natural progression of Dubois' game). Basically, he should be saying that he's comfortable playing all three positions and the reason is that he's been a winger all of his life but he also happens to have played his best hockey as a centre. Moving forward, he sees himself developing into a top line guy whether it's at centre or on the wing. It doesn't matter. Stamkos is an all-star centre who has spent quite a bit of time recently playing wing. Whatever he can do to help the team.

 

[F A N]

You know there's been rumblings that Columbus isn't entirely sold on Pujujarvi (I share this opinion). If somehow Puljujarvi falls to #5 and Dubois is still available who would you pick?

 

[Killer Orcas]

You know there's been rumblings that Columbus isn't entirely sold on Pujujarvi (I share this opinion). If somehow Puljujarvi falls to #5 and Dubois is still available who would you pick?

Pujujarvi will not fall past 4 but if he did you take him for sure!!

 

[F A N]

Pujujarvi will not fall past 4 but if he did you take him for sure!!

I honestly see him as a potential faller.

 

[banme*]

Plenty of good forwards come out of the Q. Him playing in the Q should not impact his draft stock

That's not in question.

this is worth at least a B-

I try.

 

[polarbearcub]

I honestly see him as a potential faller.

Zero chance Edmonton passes on him at 4

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

Zero chance Edmonton passes on him at 4

Gahh...Puljujarvi on McDavid's wing is a sickening thought.

Just. Take. Tkachuk. Or. Dubois.

Whichever one is there. Don't dick around with anyone else.

 

[Phrasing]

I thought I'd bring this post in I found from another thread courtesy oilerbear

Desjardins looked at the past history of draft picks and found
that players born in the
Oct period of the draft year translated at 50% of there draft year CHL production.
Sept Period 1 yr younger 75% of CHL production.

In the CHL players can have huge PP TOI diffrences from team to team.
London Has a history of giving huge PP TOI a player will never get a chance to have in the NHL.
You also want to see 1st assist to 2nd assist ratio of 2:1. that means the player is a driver of the play.
Those who have a higher ratio of 2d Assists are primary slotting into areas of space created by there more elite playing line mates.

So when you look at expected EVP for a season at age 22 based on Desjardins extensive look at drafted players.
A list of the best since the 05-06 lockout:
1. Crosby 84 EVP
---------------------
2. Mcdavid 77 EVP
---------------------
3. Dubois 66 EVP
-------------------
4.Stamkos 60
4. Mckinnon 60
-----------------
6. Bennett 54
6. Drouin 54
6. Marner 54
9. D. Strome 53
-------------------------
10. Hall 50
10. Seguin 50
12. Draistl 49
12. Tkachuk 49 40% of his points are 2nd assists.

I'm not advocating for the accuracy, reliability, or utility of the numbers above nor do I draw any conclusions since I can't verify where he got his information and how the data was utilized. I just thought it may spark an interesting talking point and someone with more information or background could add context to it.

 

[y2kcanucks]

I thought I'd bring this post in I found from another thread courtesy oilerbear



I'm not advocating for the accuracy, reliability, or utility of the numbers above nor do I draw any conclusions since I can't verify where he got his information and how the data was utilized. I just thought it may spark an interesting talking point and someone with more information or background could add context to it.

If Tkachuk turns into Taylor Hall or Tyler Seguin I don't think anyone would complain.

Not sure how these numbers are calculated though, they seem to be a bit off.

 

[Raistlin]

You know there's been rumblings that Columbus isn't entirely sold on Pujujarvi (I share this opinion). If somehow Puljujarvi falls to #5 and Dubois is still available who would you pick?

I thought about this. I don't see a lot of comparisons between Puju and Dubois, I know most consider one to be a tier above the other, but what exactly makes Puju a better pick at 3 than Dubois/Tkachuk? Speed/Skating? Shot? Sense? Defense/Gap? Size?

Keep in mind, I do not see Tkachuk as a 'consolation prize'. He is going to have an equally successful career as Dubois. Ppl are going to hate to play against his smarts.

 

[Love]

Do you guys ever wonder if GMs just call each other up and are like, "Hey, who are you picking 4th?"

Benning and Chiarelli are obviously friends from back in Boston, and if I were JB I would surely make that call and at least ask who they're leaning towards at 4.

 

[WonderTwinsUnite]

Yeah, even if Dubois is off the board, the only way I'm moving back in the first round (assuming they want a center in Brown/Jost/Keller) is for a top 9 pick this year, a second rounder, and the team's first next year.

I wouldn't even do that if Dubois is still there.

What really terrifies me is that they seem to be targeting help for this season, and we've all seen the ****ing piss poor job they've done at pro scouting in the Benning era. It'll probably be another Granlund/Vey coming back, and we throw in Subban for kicks.

 

[VanillaCoke]

Yeah, even if Dubois is off the board, the only way I'm moving back in the first round (assuming they want a center in Brown/Jost/Keller) is for a top 9 pick this year, a second rounder, and the team's first next year..

1st, 1st, 2nd for 1st


Why would any team ever do that?

 

[Zombotron]

Do you guys ever wonder if GMs just call each other up and are like, "Hey, who are you picking 4th?"

Benning and Chiarelli are obviously friends from back in Boston, and if I were JB I would surely make that call and at least ask who they're leaning towards at 4.

Some posters on this board are wondering if Chiarelli and Benning have a gentlemen's agreement in place wherein Chia gets his guy and Jimbo gets his guy

so yes

 

[Raistlin]

quite a lot of experts are telling us not to put too much weight on PLD being an NHL Center. If that is the case, I don't understand why so many seem to favor Dubois over Tkachuk in our boards, MT has demonstrated a higher level of performance over a longer period of time, has proven himself admirably in the mem cup and WJC, and comes from the gold standard of junior environments in London. ....and Boeser is already a RW right?

 

[Raistlin]

Some posters on this board are wondering if Chiarelli and Benning have a gentlemen's agreement in place wherein Chia gets his guy and Jimbo gets his guy

so yes

not much of an agreement is needed though.... its pretty much guaranteed to be PLD or MT@4, maybe we can only be certain that Chia will not maliciously screw Benning over by deliberately picking the guy Benning privately revealed to pick. Or say one thing and trading his pick away to MTL without a heads up. ....which also has me worried if their relationship is likened to the one shared between Pinky and the Brain..

 

[Verviticus]

Some posters on this board are wondering if Chiarelli and Benning have a gentlemen's agreement in place wherein Chia gets his guy and Jimbo gets his guy

so yes

i figured bennings only ****ing strength as a gm is that he should be able to call chia before trading mccann and get him to admit who he's picking. like you're best buddies with everyone, you give everyone phenomenal deals on trades, for ****ssake please tell me they give you something in return

 

[WonderTwinsUnite]

1st, 1st, 2nd for 1st


Why would any team ever do that?

Not saying they would. But that's what I would want, and I wouldn't accept anything less than.

 

[Blueangel1891]

Not saying they would. But that's what I would want, and I wouldn't accept anything less than.

It's trader Jim we're talking about. He probably ends up ADDING to the 5th

 

[GetFocht]

Here's what you cannot deny about Tkachuk:

his trajectory is 1st overall type of production.