Marner's Next Contract

[ShaneFalco]

Will Paul be involved in the negotiations? Darren?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Kucherov's contract includes SEVEN very very very valuable prime ufa years.

Kucherov's contract extends beyond his prime, for the record. And it's completely irrelevant when discussing the post-ELC contract that Marner is currently on.
People also seem to be looking at this in the context of what Kucherov would currently be worth, when he signed 5 years ago.

And regarding McDavid and all that... I love that if a player signs a team-friendly contract, it "doesn't count" as a leaf comparable... yet if a rival gm gives out a very player friendly contract, it's the new benchmark for leaf contracts.

Except that's not true at all. In fact, it's the exact opposite. People attempt to use the most team-friendly contracts in league history, and contracts that don't even qualify as comparables, to make false statements about Leaf contracts. We can and have used McDavid. But we need to look at more than one cherry picked metric, and consider the entire contract landscape and how that chosen player fits in himself. Not really sure what "player friendly contracts" you think are being used as benchmarks.

And Dekes, given that Marner (since his post elc contract began) has almost identical a1/60 a/60 and p/60 as McDavid, why isn't ufa Marner worth 15 mil like rfa McDavid was?

It's already been explained to you that he doesn't have almost identical per-60 metrics. You're cherry picking one game state and attempting to ignore McDavid being arguably the best PP player ever. You can't do that.

 

[Notsince67]

The reality is this...

-The economy is tanking and if management can't see that and factor it in, they are incompetent.
-They did not correctly forecast economic risk prior to 2020 either (would happen CV19 or not)
-McDavid and Marner are in a different stratosphere as players and by that I mean 25-33% less valuable.
-Marner was overpaid to start with, now what is he worth to you? 14million I think you said? Insanity.
-Matthews was not overpaid, he was under termed.
-JT was overpaid
-Nylander was maybe considered overpaid 500k at the time but in hindsight he wasn't overpaid at all.

Marner should essentially be on a wage freeze to go forward with this team. Nylander would get a raise to about 9million at the max and Matthews assuming he has a slight injury and will return to form will get a raise and hopefully the C to complement. JT will be pretty old and cost a lot less next time around.

That's reality but I see of people in these threads trying to narrative build for these players to get large pay raises. If there are working brains at MLSE, that won't happen.

First of all, I really don't care what Marner gets paid. I take exception of misrepresentations that he is grossly overpaid.
On Mcdavid vs Marner....
You guys need to stop torquing peoples representation. I have said that McDavid is worth 15MM which is 15/11=1.36x Marners salary

Marner was overpaid vs Nylander?
Marner effectively has earned $12,500 more per point than Nylander while completely isolating the fact that he is elite defensively while Nylander is severely below replacement level defensively. That is 10.5% more that Willy. How would you quantify a value for a top 5 percentile defensive player in contrast to a bottom 21 defensive percentile player? Less than 10%? Defense isn't important as a forward?
As for freezing his wage, he has options. He can agree to see a frozen wage but if he doesn't, he will make more because he is worth it and will get it elsewhere if he choses

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Kucherov's contract extends beyond his prime, for the record. And it's completely irrelevant when discussing the post-ELC contract that Marner is currently on.
People also seem to be looking at this in the context of what Kucherov would currently be worth, when he signed 5 years ago.

Except that's not true at all. In fact, it's the exact opposite. People attempt to use the most team-friendly contracts in league history, and contracts that don't even qualify as comparables, to make false statements about Leaf contracts. We can and have used McDavid. But we need to look at more than one cherry picked metric, and consider the entire contract landscape and how that chosen player fits in himself. Not really sure what "player friendly contracts" you think are being used as benchmarks.

It's already been explained to you that he doesn't have almost identical per-60 metrics. You're cherry picking one game state and attempting to ignore McDavid being arguably the best PP player ever. You can't do that.

So the be all end all /60 stats don't matter this time around. Got it. Lol, can't make this stuff up.

I called this right from the beginning. The /60 debacle will be entirely abandoned the very second it doesn't serve the interest of defending Dubas. Yep, nailed it.

 

[Gary Nylund]

First of all, I really don't care what Marner gets paid. I take exception of misrepresentations that he is grossly overpaid.
On Mcdavid vs Marner....
You guys need to stop torquing peoples representation. I have said that McDavid is worth 15MM which is 15/11=1.36x Marners salary

Marner was overpaid vs Nylander?
Marner effectively has earned $12,500 more per point than Nylander while completely isolating the fact that he is elite defensively while Nylander is severely below replacement level defensively. That is 10.5% more that Willy. How would you quantify a value for a top 5 percentile defensive player in contrast to a bottom 21 defensive percentile player? Less than 10%? Defense isn't important as a forward?
As for freezing his wage, he has options. He can agree to see a frozen wage but if he doesn't, he will make more because he is worth it and will get it elsewhere if he choses

I'm having a hard time believing this. Source?

 

[Dekes For Days]

So the be all end all /60 stats don't matter this time around.

Per 60 metrics still matter just as much. Absolutely nothing has changed.
Just as we did with the Leaf contracts, we need to consider their per-60 metrics on the PP as well.
By per-60 metrics, McDavid is hands down the best PP player this league has seen in decades. That can't be ignored.
The only one attempting to alter the method of evaluation now is you.

 

[Gary Nylund]

So the be all end all /60 stats don't matter this time around. Got it. Lol, can't make this stuff up.

I called this right from the beginning. The /60 debacle will be entirely abandoned the very second it doesn't serve the interest of defending Dubas. Yep, nailed it.

I can't see who you're debating with but I can guess. I can confirm, P/60 was used by ahem, some people here to justify Marner's ridiculous overpayment of a contract and same as you, I was certain that the minute it didn't suit their agenda, P/60 would cease to be relevant.

Intellectual honesty is a favorite phrase of mine. Some people have it and some people don't, simple as that.

 

[Notsince67]

Superstar, with two SC rings on his 3rd contract, earning less than a star who can't get it done in the playoffs on his second deal. LOL.

You don't think McDavid has earned his salary now?

 

[Arzak]

I'm saying that everyone compares McDavid at the salary he agreed to, not what he deserved.

Because that's the only salary that mater. Agreed salary is the only kid there is.

Everyone compares McDavid to the salary he got because that's how you compare every player. He is the best and deserves the most, but he is not the only star/player in the game taking less than they deserve due to cap restriction.


Everyone is well-paid here, so I can't blame you for thinking McDavid is also unique in this situation.

 

[Notsince67]

Because that's the only salary that mater. Agreed salary is the only kid there is.

Everyone compares McDavid to the salary he got because that's how you compare every player. He is the best and deserves the most, but he is not the only star/player in the game taking less than they deserve due to cap restriction.


Everyone is well-paid here, so I can't blame you for thinking McDavid is also unique in this situation.

Sure but understand that his pay would have capped Matthews number as it would have Marner's, by proxy. The edges of the skill distribution curve will always take the biggest effect in a socialized system. McDavid is a unicorn and just stands out in a big way.

 

[thewave]

Yep, they'll be after their 3rd. contract, just like Kucherov's.

Overpaid, compared to Kucherov, yeah they will be.

Doesn't matter, team will be competitive, likely won't win anything, but will provide entertainment.

This is precisely what I am saying as well. I have to tell you, it sucks coming to that realization.

 

[Notsince67]

This is precisely what I am saying as well. I have to tell you, it sucks coming to that realization.

Kucherov is a statistical outlier. Remove him and you have great difficulty making much of a case in light of cap percentages taken by others in the past

 

[Dekes For Days]

I can confirm, P/60 was used by ahem, some people here to justify Marner's ridiculous overpayment of a contract and same as you, I was certain that the minute it didn't suit their agenda, P/60 would cease to be relevant.

Per 60 metrics are still just as relevant and being used in exactly the same way as it was when Marner's reasonable post-ELC contract was discussed.
The person you replied to is the one attempting to alter the method of evaluation, and even that is still using per 60 metrics.
He's just doing it wrong and attempting to ignore an entire very relevant game state, since McDavid is arguably the best ever in that game state and it breaks his argument...

 

[Arzak]

I can't see who you're debating with but I can guess. I can confirm, P/60 was used by ahem, some people here to justify Marner's ridiculous overpayment of a contract and same as you, I was certain that the minute it didn't suit their agenda, P/60 would cease to be relevant.

Intellectual honesty is a favorite phrase of mine. Some people have it and some people don't, simple as that.

NHL Point Per 60 Leaders | StatMuse

Wayne Gretzky has the most career points / 60, with 47.62.

www.statmuse.com

Jagr is a beast. I cant find it but I would swear he was close to top in the NHL in 2015-2016 season in P/60 . One bad season followed and no one would offered him another contract (I mean Calgary mid season barely counts).

 

[DarkKnight]

Here's something with entertainment value:

One of the best scenes ever!!

 

[Arzak]

Sure but understand that his pay would have capped Matthews number as it would have Marner's, by proxy. The edges of the skill distribution curve will always take the biggest effect in a socialized system. McDavid is a unicorn and just stands out in a big way.

True, true. But the max contract rule makes it all even more hypothetical (trying to guess McDavid's real value).

Otherwise hard to argue, the best player in the world caps it for all.

 

[Dekes For Days]

NHL Point Per 60 Leaders | StatMuse

Wayne Gretzky has the most career points / 60, with 47.62.

www.statmuse.com

I'm not sure what that's trying to show, but it's certainly not showing points per 60...
Not only do many of those players not have time information available (since that only started being recorded in 1997), but producing 47 points every 60 minutes would be literally impossible.
To give an illustration, if McDavid produced at 47 points per 60 this year, he would currently be at around 1300 points on the season...
I'm pretty sure that site was coded incorrectly and is just showing their career point totals divided by 60... which is not what points per 60 is...

 

[koyvoo]

The amount of denial, compartmentalizing, goal post moving, flailing and reaching for anything going on in this thread right now is actually shocking, from a psychological perspective.

 

[thewave]

Kucherov is a statistical outlier. Remove him and you have great difficulty making much of a case in light of cap percentages taken by others in the past

Explain Pasta signing to 11.25m --- He is also a superior player to Marner and because I said that Marner should have his wages frozen on the next contract I am attacking Mitch or something crazy?

Ok whatever I am the loon, crazy ideas about being responsible of the cap and that Keefe isn't a good coach. That we don't need focus on our tending or balance the team out a bit better. I am just a crazy with wild ideas and all the examples I show don't count because reasons.

I get it. It's fine.

 

[ToneDog]

You don't think McDavid has earned his salary now?

60 goals and 138 points in 72 games ? He's outperformed it. Yes, McDavid is also making more than Kutch. Wonder how many Oiler fans think McDavid is overpaid.

 

[ULF_55]

60 goals and 138 points in 72 games ? He's outperformed it. Yes, McDavid is also making more than Kutch. Wonder how many Oiler fans think McDavid is overpaid.

Well, let's be honest here, almost every NHL player is overpaid.
It's the nature of the beast when it comes to art and entertainment.
Who's the last team of doctor's at your local hospital working 12 hour shifts after 8 years of adult training are averaging $3.5mm a year?

But heck, they're entertainers so overpayment is expected. "Clear the Track" was vastly underpaid.

Give Mitch and Auston $14mm each and don't hold them to account for not winning anything.

 

[ToneDog]

Well, let's be honest here, almost every NHL player is overpaid.
It's the nature of the beast when it comes to art and entertainment.
Who's the last team of doctor's at your local hospital working 12 hour shifts after 8 years of adult training are averaging $3.5mm a year?

But heck, they're entertainers so overpayment is expected. "Clear the Track" was vastly underpaid.

Don't get me started with what NBA, MLB and NFL players are making.

 

[Notsince67]

60 goals and 138 points in 72 games ? He's outperformed it but not sure what your point is.

You mention cup rings and I thought I would point out that McDavid has won zero. I know it's easy to throw out stuff like that but you cant say Kucherov deserves more money because of cup wins while ignoring that fact that the statement fails with McDavid in a rather large way.
It is kind of a random criticism to point to a great player with an anomalously low contract while ignoring the better player who is paid more

 

[Dekes For Days]

You mention cup rings and I thought I would point out that McDavid has won zero. I know it's easy to throw out stuff like that but you cant say Kucherov deserves more money because of cup wins while ignoring that fact that the statement fails with McDavid in a rather large way.

Also, even aside being a team accomplishment, Kucherov didn't even have any cup wins when he signed.

 

[Notsince67]

Don't get me started with what NBA, MLB and NFL players are making.

I remember when Ricki Henderson signed a 3MM per year contract, making him only the second in MLB history to make so much.
Times change