Marner's Next Contract

[Sypher04]

They already messed up the asset management. When you have a talent pool like we have had and don't get past the first round, well, that's an indictment right there. There really isn't much hope either with the lack of a true home grown #1 Tender in the system. Two teams in twenty or more years have won without a home grown tender, just two. If you were an officer of a corporation and were aware of such a statistic and didn't address the issue, what would happen? How would you look to your peers?

Shanahan - Dubas - Keefe
-A tire fire
-Off the rails
-Gone sideways
-Shot their bolt
-Blew their brains out
-In a train wreck

That's the reality. Lets see what stars we can retain and piece together come the next contracts. Tampa and then Boston doesn't look good alone, if we can beat Tampa that is.

But how specifically do you suggest they should have addressed a home grown goaltender? Drafting goalies has proven to be an absolute crapshoot by and large, with only a small number of guys drafted in the early rounds paying any actual dividends. Goalies also take longer to develop and rule if thumb is that you draft BPA. Even IF a legit stud pops up in the early draft, the odds of manouvering your way into actually landing them is fairly poor. Requires a lot of luck in conjunction with good prescouting.

I mean we’ve definitely made mistakes goalie wise organizationally, but goalie, more than any other position, seems like a dice roll at best to pan out in terms of drafting/signing young and developing to a Stanley cup quality

 

[ITM]

They already messed up the asset management. When you have a talent pool like we have had and don't get past the first round, well, that's an indictment right there. There really isn't much hope either with the lack of a true home grown #1 Tender in the system. Two teams in twenty or more years have won without a home grown tender, just two. If you were an officer of a corporation and were aware of such a statistic and didn't address the issue, what would happen? How would you look to your peers?

Shanahan - Dubas - Keefe
-A tire fire
-Off the rails
-Gone sideways
-Shot their bolt
-Blew their brains out
-In a train wreck

That's the reality. Lets see what stars we can retain and piece together come the next contracts. Tampa and then Boston doesn't look good alone, if we can beat Tampa that is.

An interesting stat. Point taken; Samsonov is young enough to mitigate that trend I would think; Question is: Is he good enough?

I believe we have a window to maximize assets. I posted some thoughts a while back on seeing the glass half-full once we get past (if we get past) Matthews' and Nylander's contracts.

Obviously, how we handle O'Reilly will be important. Kerfoot should be off the books and so should Holl...I think that's 6M. Should give new contracts to Accari and Kampf. It's going to be tight.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Apparently it's only applicable on a case by case basis.

Nylander is less valuable than Matthews and Marner according to per-60 metrics too.

Two teams in twenty or more years have won without a home grown tender, just two. If you were an officer of a corporation and were aware of such a statistic and didn't address the issue, what would happen?

If you're looking for a homegrown goalie for the current team, you'd be looking prior to Dubas.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Nylander is less valuable than Matthews and Marner according to per-60 metrics too.

If you're looking for a homegrown goalie for the current team, you'd be looking prior to Dubas.

Marner has almost identical a1/60, total assists/60, and points/60 as McDavid and MacKinnon (all three leading as top 3 in the league) since his post elc contract began. (And remember, I was told in the Marner vs Rantanen contract discussion threads that goals aren't any more valuable than points when determining contract value. Don't you DARE forget that Dekes.)

So he deserves to be paid as a top 3 player in the league, right? He pk's, pays more taxes than both, more media pressure, etc. And with the cap going up, how can we rationalize anything less than 13x8?

Remember how important you and your ilk said /60 stats were in the previous negotiations Dekes? Do you remember?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Marner has almost identical a1/60, total assists/60, and points/60 as McDavid and MacKinnon (all three leading as top 3 in the league) since his post elc contract began. (And remember, I was told in the Marner vs Rantanen contract discussion threads that goals aren't any more valuable than points when determining contract value. Don't you DARE forget that Dekes.)

So he deserves to be paid as a top 3 player in the league, right? He pk's, pays more taxes than both, more media pressure, etc. And with the cap going up, how can we rationalize anything less than 13x8?

Remember how important you and your ilk said /60 stats were in the previous negotiations Dekes? Do you remember?

Putting aside your warped memory of past discussions, yes, Marner is one of the best players in the world and has earned a sizeable contract.

 

[thewave]

Nylander is less valuable than Matthews and Marner according to per-60 metrics too.

If you're looking for a homegrown goalie for the current team, you'd be looking prior to Dubas.

Never said they are as good as each other. The gap is closing pretty fast and if he takes on the C position it could get interesting (JT should stop playing C)

The hunt for a #1 should never end. We should have the best scouts available and even be poaching that talent from other teams if need be. Criticism goes way back, when was our last home grown real deal top 5 #1? Take a team like Ottawa for instance, they just seem to throw top tenders away routinely where we can't bring up a single one.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The gap is closing pretty fast and if he takes on the C position it could get interesting (JT should stop playing C)

The gap is still pretty sizeable, and Nylander's not a center.

The hunt for a #1 should never end. We should have the best scouts available and even be poaching that talent from other teams if need be. Criticism goes way back, when was our last home grown real deal top 5 #1? Take a team like Ottawa for instance, they just seem to throw top tenders away routinely where we can't bring up a single one.

We didn't stop hunting for one. We've been drafting/signing goalie prospects, but it takes a long time to develop a goalie, even if they're successful.
I'm not really sure what you're talking about in terms of Ottawa routinely throwing away top goaltenders...

 

[thewave]

The gap is still pretty sizeable, and Nylander's not a center.

What specific attributes do you think he lacks? He most certainly played C when he was younger and quite successfully. The way his game is now, I personally believe he can make the jump.

We didn't stop hunting for one. We've been drafting/signing goalie prospects, but it takes a long time to develop a goalie, even if they're successful.
I'm not really sure what you're talking about in terms of Ottawa routinely throwing away top goaltenders...

So when was that last tender we developed that was a top 5 or even 10?

If you can't think of one, it's because we are terrible at developing tenders.

If you agree that we are not good at developing tenders, you should then agree we need to overhaul the process internally.

Do you agree we have failed in this department? Do you agree we need to resolve the issue?

 

[Notsince67]

Marner has almost identical a1/60, total assists/60, and points/60 as McDavid and MacKinnon (all three leading as top 3 in the league) since his post elc contract began. (And remember, I was told in the Marner vs Rantanen contract discussion threads that goals aren't any more valuable than points when determining contract value. Don't you DARE forget that Dekes.)

So he deserves to be paid as a top 3 player in the league, right? He pk's, pays more taxes than both, more media pressure, etc. And with the cap going up, how can we rationalize anything less than 13x8?

Remember how important you and your ilk said /60 stats were in the previous negotiations Dekes? Do you remember?

McDavid is actually worth over 15MM. Isn't Marner generous?

 

[thewave]

McDavid is actually worth over 15MM. Isn't Marner generous?

If he has a lackluster playoff and they lose again it's probably time to move on from Mitch tbh.

 

[Notsince67]

What specific attributes do you think he lacks? He most certainly played C when he was younger and quite successfully. The way his game is now, I personally believe he can make the jump.

So when was that last tender we developed that was a top 5 or even 10?

If you can't think of one, it's because we are terrible at developing tenders.

If you agree that we are not good at developing tenders, you should then agree we need to overhaul the process internally.

Do you agree we have failed in this department? Do you agree we need to resolve the issue?

Nylander is rather shite at defense. I would say that is a rather large impediment

 

[Gabriel426]

If he has a lackluster playoff and they lose again it's probably time to move on from Mitch tbh.

I think anyone is on the table and it all depends on the return package.

To me, there are only 4 players that MM trade would make sense and two of them are goalies and the other is McD and Makar.

Don’t think those teams are trading them.

Then you need a package that could be equal value which I don’t think you can find.

Just don’t think you can improve the team with trading MM.

Trading JT is the right play but the MGT would never do that.

 

[Dekes For Days]

What specific attributes do you think he lacks? He most certainly played C when he was younger and quite successfully. The way his game is now, I personally believe he can make the jump.

Center doesn't really match his playstyle at all. He likes to play high up, be the first out of the zone, and utilize his speed and acceleration to generate rush opportunities and be on the outside to cut around defensemen towards the net. And it's not like he's particularly great at faceoffs, or super defensively adept. Most elite players play center at some point in lesser leagues, but that doesn't equate to a center in the NHL. Every time he's played center in the NHL, he looks worse, and we don't need him to play center.

So when was that last tender we developed that was a top 5 or even 10?
If you can't think of one, it's because we are terrible at developing tenders.
If you agree that we are not good at developing tenders, you should then agree we need to overhaul the process internally.
Do you agree we have failed in this department? Do you agree we need to resolve the issue?

I mean, we had Rask, but then we traded him away.
And then we did have an issue, and that issue was we stopped drafting goalies for a while.
We started back up in 2016 with Woll, who's just now hitting his stride (showing how long goalies take). Scott experienced career ending injuries...
We're drafting around a goalie a draft. We changed our goalie coach this past offseason. Not sure what you're looking for in terms of further resolution.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think anyone is on the table and it all depends on the return package.

To me, there are only 4 players that MM trade would make sense and two of them are goalies and the other is McD and Makar.

Don’t think those teams are trading them.

Then you need a package that could be equal value which I don’t think you can find.

Just don’t think you can improve the team with trading MM.

Trading JT is the right play but the MGT would never do that.

I don't think I'd trade Marner for a goalie, too much voodoo. Vasi a couple of years ago I would have done but not any more.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I don't think I'd trade Marner for a goalie, too much voodoo. Vasi a couple of years ago I would have done but not any more.

I think you keep Matthews/Marner as long as you can.

Make sure assets like Nylander don't walk for free

You can keep the window open for a while if you play your cards right, also need to get a bit lucky with drafting too.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

McDavid is actually worth over 15MM. Isn't Marner generous?

Well, only leaf fans do this (lol) p/60 nonsense.

So I'm saying, if we're using that craziness as fact, Marner's p/60 and a/60 are as good as McDavid's. And we learned in the Marner vs Rantanten contract discussion threads that goals aren't more valuable than points.

So you're saying Marner is worth at least 15x8 next contract. Fair.

@Dekes For Days disagrees.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Well, only leaf fans do this (lol) p/60 nonsense.

So I'm saying, if we're using that craziness as fact, Marner's p/60 and a/60 are as good as McDavid's. And we learned in the Marner vs Rantanten contract discussion threads that goals aren't more valuable than points.

So you're saying Marner is worth at least 15x8 next contract. Fair.

@Dekes For Days disagrees.

I think younger Dubas is current Dubas's worst enemy.

The Matthews and Marner contracts are amongst his worst work as our GM

He's gotten pretty good since then, I am hoping their extensions are a lot more friendly.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Well, only leaf fans do this (lol) p/60 nonsense.

Not true, and it's not nonsense.

Marner's p/60 and a/60 are as good as McDavid's.

No they're not. You're probably looking at just 5v5.

@Dekes For Days disagrees.

I don't need you trying to speak for me.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

No they're not. You're probably looking at just 5v5.

Saying leaf comparables were better on the PP was belittled and mocked during the last contract negotiation.

So I own't accept... I won't ACCEPT... any change of position. Absoluely not.

I argued through and f***ing through that leaf comparables being way better at the PP was something to be considered in contract negotiations.

How dare you.. how DARE you... backpedal on that.

Marner's p/60 and a/60 (what you used to rationalize Marners unprecedented dramatic overpayment in the past) is McDavid tier ever since Marner signed his post elc contract. BETTER in some cases.

 

[Sypher04]

Saying leaf comparables were better on the PP was belittled and mocked during the last contract negotiation.

So I own't accept... I won't ACCEPT... any change of position. Absoluely not.

I argued through and f***ing through that leaf comparables being way better at the PP was something to be considered in contract negotiations.

How dare you.. how DARE you... backpedal on that.

Marner's p/60 and a/60 (what you used to rationalize Marners unprecedented dramatic overpayment in the past) is McDavid tier ever since Marner signed his post elc contract. BETTER in some cases.

The comparables were never really better on the powerplay. Simply better at being on teams that getting more powerplays and being deployed appropriately by the coach (on the #1 unit and for time befitting star players)

That said, I’d say that’s still the case, at least on the first part anyway.

I think per 60 numbers were and still are the best way to measure effectiveness of players on the powerplay, given the disparity in opportunity

 

[Dekes For Days]

Saying leaf comparables were better on the PP was belittled and mocked during the last contract negotiation.
So I own't accept... I won't ACCEPT... any change of position. Absoluely not.
I argued through and f***ing through that leaf comparables being way better at the PP was something to be considered in contract negotiations.
How dare you.. how DARE you... backpedal on that.

Not sure what you're talking about. PP was always considered in past discussions of Marner's contract.
Attempts to exclusively cherry pick opportunity-skewed raw PP point totals, while ignoring their rates of production, is what was pushed back on back then. Not their PP production rates.
Matthews and Marner were often better than their comparables on the PP through their ELC pre-signing periods, for the record.
You can't just ignore McDavid being the best PP player maybe ever lol.

 

[Menzinger]

Id rather have marner or matthews

Mcdavid plays in the west where its so bad you only
Have to be a mediocre team to make the playoffs. In the east mcdavid and draisitel would actually have to play defense.

Think about a team who has the top two scorers every year and are still a wild card team.

If both those players gave up 30 points to actually learn to play defensive hockey maybe their team could be cup favourites.

I get that. Though imo if the best player in the world is willing to join the team, you do what you do to bring him home.

I should add context to my thoughts

Im not so sure willie signs this off season. After last year.. now this year he might wait until the season starts or halfway through if he is producing equal to or better to maximize

If he cuts off that chance and signs this offseason he could flip that leverage and ask for more

Fair enough - it's indeed a mystery still as to what approach he'll take to negotiations. Personally I suspect his agent will have a fairly risk adverse ask this summer (something over 8 years that sets him up for life) and it'll be up to the Leafs if they want to agree/match.

 

[Gabriel426]

I don't think I'd trade Marner for a goalie, too much voodoo. Vasi a couple of years ago I would have done but not any more.

I understand about goalies being Voodoo but when are we going to have our voodoo goalie?
Those two goalies I mentioned are Shek and Vas.
If Leafs actually have a solid goalie like Demko, there will be no need for Shek and Vas.

 

[hamzarocks]

Man does tavares suck relative to the other three this year



Matthews is being talked like Tyler Bozak but he had 1 more pt than JT in 6 less games despite a likely injury



We need the captain to have a beastly round 1

 

[Gary Nylund]

I understand about goalies being Voodoo but when are we going to have our voodoo goalie?
Those two goalies I mentioned are Shek and Vas.
If Leafs actually have a solid goalie like Demko, there will be no need for Shek and Vas.

When we get ours, I dunno. Maybe it's Sammy or Woll or Murray?

Shek and Vas both have around the same SV% as Sammy this season, trading Marner for either one seems like a really bad idea.