Marner's Next Contract

[ACC1224]

As good as Marner is, he will always be judged in light of his contract.

And the tactics his camp used during negotiations.

Unfortunately for Marner it is a situation of his own making. And one that overshadows his on ice performance. As remarkable as it has been.

If Nylander is the doughboy, then Marner is the Marshmallow Man.

If I am reading his stat sheet correctly (I am), he has never once taken a major penalty. Which means he has never been in a “fight”. He averages six minor penalties a year.

So basically, he doesn’t stand up for his teammates.

Ever.

When there is a scrum after play, Marner is the one that will be tugging on the back of guys jersey’s. Not one to be a hero, he will not be leading the charge. No one will be grabbing the hitch of his sweater.

Perhaps I’m being too harsh.

I’m putting Marner down unfairly and scapegoating him. And you may be right. And had Marner shown more loyalty to the team during contract negotiations, I may be more sympathetic.

But probably not.

Along with Nylander, Marner exemplifies everything that is wrong with this Leafs team: Soft and greedy. While he didn’t get the chance to hold out (we all know he would have), Marner was even more more blasphemous by entertaining other teams in attempt to solicit an offer sheet. He insisted on fighting dirty.

So why shouldn't he expect fans and media to do the same?

In order to justify his salary, Marner would have to be the best winger in the league. And a top 5 player in the game. This he most certainly is not.

And until he does become one, he will continue to be dissected and criticized on hockey forums and in media. Perhaps somewhat unfairly.

But still justifiably so.

Another topic that you have no clue on.
This is an act, right?

 

[IPS]

Marner should come in at around what Pasta signed for. If he wants 12, fine, but we need to draw a line with these guys somewhere.

There certainly needs to be a line drawn somewhere. Any talk of Marner getting 13+ is lunacy. Nathan Mackinnon who is a cup winning #1C with absolutely top-end production is getting paid 12.6. In no conceivable universe should Marner be paid more than that. It needs to be less, not more.

I am absolutely sick of this franchise being an ATM machine instead of a winning hockey team to our top players.

 

[ACC1224]

There certainly needs to be a line drawn somewhere. Any talk of Marner getting 13+ is lunacy. Nathan Mackinnon who is a cup winning #1C with absolutely top-end production is getting paid 12.6. In no conceivable universe should Marner be paid more than that. It needs to be less, not more.

I am absolutely sick of this franchise being an ATM machine instead of a winning hockey team to our top players.

Marner and Matthews IMO, should both come in under Mackinnon.
If Matthews doesn't though, how do you not pay Marner?

 

[Notsince67]

We're supposed to give the sun and the moon to the guys who haven't stepped up at all in the playoffs?

Marner deserves nowhere near what Kane got on his 2nd contract - Kane went out and won cups for Chicago, Marner can't even get past the 1st round.


You think Kane's playoff resume had nothing to do with him getting the payday he did on his 3rd contract?

Keep dreaming buddy.

What you think he deserves is irrelevant. You get paid for the future, not the past. This whole cup thing is bullshit. He will get what the market deems his skill merits. There are plenty of superstars who have not won a cup. There isn't a team in the league that wouldn't take Marner. Panarin got plenty with zero cup wins. Such sentiments such as "deserving" don't merit much serious discussion when you are talking about the best winger in the league, 2nd consecutive 1st team all star and arguably the best performing player on the team.
Marner is just entering his prime and already has more career ppg than Kane. That bodes well for his future performance. No he hasn't won a cup but neither has McDavid and nobody would argue that he doesn't deserve to be the highest paid in the world.
You can whine an cry like the rest of the buffoons here who bitched about Marners last contract because they didn't see his value or you can see objectively why teams go after players like Marner. Cup experience is important but what is the highest amount that the leafs paid for a player who won the cup?
He is a franchise level player among the top skilled in the league who brings energy to a team

 

[Notsince67]

Marner and Matthews IMO, should both come in under Mackinnon.
If Matthews doesn't though, how do you not pay Marner?

Would be a team friendly deal for both that would mean huge things in the future. Allows for a McDavid signing if he desired to come over

 

[ShaneFalco]

Also, take into consideration, for whatever reason, whether it stems from Shanny, Dubas, Keefe or MM himself - they are afraid of pissing him off. Can't even give him a kick in the arse in the media without having to back-track. Won;t bench him for more than a shift. Nylander though........

 

[ACC1224]

Would be a team friendly deal for both that would mean huge things in the future. Allows for a McDavid signing if he desired to come over

That would be unimaginable, those 3 on the same team.

IMO, McDavid stays in Edmonton.

 

[Notsince67]

That would be unimaginable, those 3 on the same team.

IMO, McDavid stays in Edmonton.

I can't see him staying if he doesnt get a cup. Clock is ticking

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Another topic that you have no clue on.
This is an act, right?

For the most part all I did was list a bunch of facts.

Whether you like them or not is up to you.

 

[ACC1224]

For the most part all I did was list a bunch of facts.

Whether you like them or not is up to you.

Your strange interpretations are not 'facts'.

 

[IPS]

What you think he deserves is irrelevant. You get paid for the future, not the past. This whole cup thing is bullshit. He will get what the market deems his skill merits. There are plenty of superstars who have not won a cup. There isn't a team in the league that wouldn't take Marner. Panarin got plenty with zero cup wins. Such sentiments such as "deserving" don't merit much serious discussion when you are talking about the best winger in the league, 2nd consecutive 1st team all star and arguably the best performing player on the team.
Marner is just entering his prime and already has more career ppg than Kane. That bodes well for his future performance. No he hasn't won a cup but neither has McDavid and nobody would argue that he doesn't deserve to be the highest paid in the world.
You can whine an cry like the rest of the buffoons here who bitched about Marners last contract because they didn't see his value or you can see objectively why teams go after players like Marner. Cup experience is important but what is the highest amount that the leafs paid for a player who won the cup?
He is a franchise level player among the top skilled in the league who brings energy to a team

I rarely engage in these contract talks nowadays because they turn toxic towards the player.

But regarding what the market value is for scoring wingers, Gaudreau got 9.75 for having an offensive season that was better than anything Marner has done to date, and Tkachuk got 9.5 for a similar season. There's a precedent, it's just the Leafs don't get to follow it. Tkachuk is definitely exceeding Kane's production as well but it doesn't mean he's gonna be treated equally in negotiations.

If we're doomed to overpay Matthews and Marner by the figures that are being purported, it's going to cost us elite players like Nylander and a whole bunch more.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Your strange interpretations are not 'facts'.

If you are trying to tell me that Marner's contract hasn't been a focal point of discussion for years, I don't know what to tell you.

 

[notdoneyet]

We're supposed to give the sun and the moon to the guys who haven't stepped up at all in the playoffs?

Marner deserves nowhere near what Kane got on his 2nd contract - Kane went out and won cups for Chicago, Marner can't even get past the 1st round.


You think Kane's playoff resume had nothing to do with him getting the payday he did on his 3rd contract?

Keep dreaming buddy.

Kane got the cups but they also had two players that had contracts that circumvented the CBA.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Let's keep a few things in mind...

I remember EVERY conversation from the previous Marner contract negotiation. The following was defending by the VAST majority of the posters here. Only myself and 2 or 3 other posters questioned the following:

- If a leaf comparable pays, say, 15% less taxes, then the leaf player aav adds 15%

- leaf players need a premium on top of that due to "media pressure".

- goals aren't more valuable than assists

- playoffs and cups aren't allowed to be part of the equation

- primary assists are more valuable than secondary assists

- REAL points are meaningless and we have to look at p/60

Ok, so as for that last point, let's do that.

Since Marner's post elc contract began:

Marner is SECOND in the league in primary assists/60.

Marner is THIRD in overall assists/60 (being only a tiny FRACTION lower than MacKinnon and McDavid.)

We don't need to look at goals because I learned last Marner contract negotiation that goals aren't more important than assists, and I'm being consistent with that.

Ok, so what that tells us (based on the arguments accepted by ALL leaf fans here in all previous contract negotiations) Marner deserves pretty much the MacKinnon contract PLUS leaf media premium, PLUS tax difference PLUS the cap increase.

So somewhere around 14-15x8 (being generous).

Now, if anyone DARES challenge this, they need to first start out by saying that they were wrong about the previous contract negotiation and that Marner WAS in fact overpaid in relation to direct comparisons.

 

[Mess]

Unless cap rises significantly, too bad. We cannot replay the last 4 years another 8.

I agree we can't put ourselves into cap hell again when we re-sign these players.

But the problem being Marner should never have been at nearly $11 mil for buying just 2 years of UFA status. Dubas botched that deal badly because a year earlier Marner camp was asking for the Draisaitl deal of 8 years at $8.5 mil, which Dubas turned down, while according to reports on HNIC that $7.5 mil was the teams offer range based on current comparbles at the time.

Then he allows Marner coming off 60+ point seasons to put up 90+ season playing along side Tavares and his $11 mil, and then signs Matthews first to his $11.6 deal and Marner suddenly has all this new leverage and says Matthews is my only comparable and where is my $11 mil also as I can put as many points or more than my teammates.

Marner should really be locked up for 2 additional years at $8.5 mil beyond his current deal. Then based on his past deal we would be talking raise based on that figure and not raise based on $10.9 mil current.

 

[Notsince67]

I rarely engage in these contract talks nowadays because they turn toxic towards the player.

But regarding what the market value is for scoring wingers, Gaudreau got 9.75 for having an offensive season that was better than anything Marner has done to date, and Tkachuk got 9.5 for a similar season. There's a precedent, it's just the Leafs don't get to follow it. Tkachuk is definitely exceeding Kane's production as well but it doesn't mean he's gonna be treated equally in negotiations.

If we're doomed to overpay Matthews and Marner by the figures that are being purported, it's going to cost us elite players like Nylander and a whole bunch more.

Getting into sample sizes isn't something I want to get into in a short post.
That said, Marner is pretty much a career 90 pt annualize player on average and that is saying a lot at his stage in life. That isn't something that is easily overlooked

 

[keonsbitterness]

I could be totally out to lunch and oftem am, but I see AM wanting the California "spotlight"

There is an NHL California spotlight?

 

[Gary Nylund]

As good as Marner is, he will always be judged in light of his contract.

And the tactics his camp used during negotiations.

Unfortunately for Marner it is a situation of his own making. And one that overshadows his on ice performance. As remarkable as it has been.

If Nylander is the doughboy, then Marner is the Marshmallow Man.

If I am reading his stat sheet correctly (I am), he has never once taken a major penalty. Which means he has never been in a “fight”. He averages six minor penalties a year.

So basically, he doesn’t stand up for his teammates.

Ever.

When there is a scrum after play, Marner is the one that will be tugging on the back of guys jersey’s. Not one to be a hero, he will not be leading the charge. No one will be grabbing the hitch of his sweater.

Perhaps I’m being too harsh.

I’m putting Marner down unfairly and scapegoating him. And you may be right. And had Marner shown more loyalty to the team during contract negotiations, I may be more sympathetic.

But probably not.

Along with Nylander, Marner exemplifies everything that is wrong with this Leafs team: Soft and greedy. While he didn’t get the chance to hold out (we all know he would have), Marner was even more more blasphemous by entertaining other teams in attempt to solicit an offer sheet. He insisted on fighting dirty.

So why shouldn't he expect fans and media to do the same?

In order to justify his salary, Marner would have to be the best winger in the league. And a top 5 player in the game. This he most certainly is not.

And until he does become one, he will continue to be dissected and criticized on hockey forums and in media. Perhaps somewhat unfairly.

But still justifiably so.

Some of this is on point. Most of it is just LOLOL spewage.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I rarely engage in these contract talks nowadays because they turn toxic towards the player.

But regarding what the market value is for scoring wingers, Gaudreau got 9.75 for having an offensive season that was better than anything Marner has done to date, and Tkachuk got 9.5 for a similar season. There's a precedent, it's just the Leafs don't get to follow it. Tkachuk is definitely exceeding Kane's production as well but it doesn't mean he's gonna be treated equally in negotiations.

If we're doomed to overpay Matthews and Marner by the figures that are being purported, it's going to cost us elite players like Nylander and a whole bunch more.

All this is spot on IMO. Marner's last contract should have been 9-9.5 for 7 years, then everybody would be happy. We wouldn't even be talking about Marner's contract today and we wouldn't be facing an ugly cap crunch two seasons from now. That's where all the problems started - paying Marner like he's a top 5 player in the NHL when he was nowhere close to that yet.

 

[IPS]

Getting into sample sizes isn't something I want to get into in a short post.
That said, Marner is pretty much a career 90 pt annualize player on average and that is saying a lot at his stage in life. That isn't something that is easily overlooked

I don't doubt that Marner can live up to a massive UFA contract ( $13M or more), his best years are still ahead of him. I just want the most competitive team possible. We are definitely going to lose Nylander if our superstars really are going to demand some of the numbers that are being thrown out (it'll obviously start with Matthews and then Marner demanding to be paid similar).

 

[Notsince67]

I don't doubt that Marner can live up to a massive UFA contract ( $13M or more), his best years are still ahead of him. I just want the most competitive team possible. We are definitely going to lose Nylander if our superstars really are going to demand some of the numbers that are being thrown out (it'll obviously start with Matthews and then Marner demanding to be paid similar).

On that we can agree.
The truth is that these players can all get paid large. They can pursue money and they will likely get it. I just don't believe that they don't merit it. The price of future team success is going to depend on the skill of the team as a whole. That doesn't mean that paying Hyman 5.5mm for 7 years by forcing Marner, Matthews & Nylander to take a pay cut is a good thing. The players have no say on what others get paid so they sacrifice based on trust. Hyman is fully paid if not over paid for the term he got. If players are making sacrifices, it is an abomination to overpay others.
McDavid gave 2.5MM a year back to the team so they could in effect-overpay Nurse in the future. You don't think he thinks about that? He gave up 20MM in lifetime earnings so they could be careless enough to sign Jack Campbell for 5x5MM. Often collectivist intent leads to mediocrity. Let the boys give something back but they shouldnt be asked to financially carry the mistakes of management

 

[Gary Nylund]

On that we can agree.
The truth is that these players can all get paid large. They can pursue money and they will likely get it. I just don't believe that they don't merit it. The price of future team success is going to depend on the skill of the team as a whole. That doesn't mean that paying Hyman 5.5mm for 7 years by forcing Marner, Matthews & Nylander to take a pay cut is a good thing. The players have no say on what others get paid so they sacrifice based on trust. Hyman is fully paid if not over paid for the term he got. If players are making sacrifices, it is an abomination to overpay others.
McDavid gave 2.5MM a year back to the team so they could in effect-overpay Nurse in the future. You don't think he thinks about that? He gave up 20MM in lifetime earnings so they could be careless enough to sign Jack Campbell for 5x5MM. Often collectivist intent leads to mediocrity. Let the boys give something back but they shouldnt be asked to financially carry the mistakes of management

Could a post make any less sense?

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Let’s deal with.

Nylander first

then Matthews

 

[Gabriel426]

AM, MM and Willie are all going to get paid in their next contract.
AM's next contract will be Mack's contract.
MM's next contract will be Pastra's contract.
While Willie will be Johnny's Hockey contract.

The question is whether they will take a little less-like 500k-750k less than their market value and not comparable value or just take market value.

IMO, I think AM will be hitting the 13mil/AVV, MM will be 12mil and Willie will come in around 9.5mil.

 

[andora]

AM, MM and Willie are all going to get paid in their next contract.
AM's next contract will be Mack's contract.
MM's next contract will be Pastra's contract.
While Willie will be Johnny's Hockey contract.

The question is whether they will take a little less-like 500k-750k less than their market value and not comparable value or just take market value.

IMO, I think AM will be hitting the 13mil/AVV, MM will be 12mil and Willie will come in around 9.5mil.

I cant see nylander coming in under 10